The 'hot hand': Explaining the randomness of March Madness

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The first weekend of the 2019 NCAA men's tournament lacked the drama of 2018 when the UMBC Retrievers shocked the world and became the first No. 16 seed in tournament history to knock off a No. 1 seed. What makes this tournament so predictable, yet so unpredictable? Is there a method to March Madness?