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Kentucky governor’s race could provide clues for 2024

First Read is your briefing from “Meet the Press” and the NBC Political Unit on the day’s most important political stories and why they matter.
Image: Shooting At Louisville, Kentucky Bank Leaves At Least Five Dead
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear on April 12, 2023 in Louisville.Michael Swensen / Getty Images

If it’s THURSDAY… Overnight 5th Circuit ruling preserves — but also limits — availability of abortion pill… Though matter appears destined for Supreme Court… House Democrats call for Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., to resign after her absence from Capitol Hill… Donald Trump testifies in New York attorney general’s business fraud lawsuit… Ron DeSantis’ team tries to stop more Florida Republicans from endorsing Trump, NBC’s Matt Dixon reports… And House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries raises $33 million for House Democrats, NBC’s Ali Vitali scoops.

But FIRST... The TV ads are pounding Kentucky’s airwaves, with the state’s GOP primary for the right to take on incumbent Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear just one month away.

“Our schools are under attack — woke bureaucrats parachuting in to hijack our children’s future, forcing woke ideology into the classroom,” goes one ad by Republican Kelly Craft, who served as Trump’s second U.N. ambassador.

“The very first freedom in our Constitution is the freedom of religion. But Gov. Beshear ignored the Constitution and shut churches down,” goes another ad by Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron, appearing to refer to the state’s restrictions during Covid.

“Daniel Cameron conservative? Just ask Daniel Cameron,” as an ad from the pro-Craft Super PAC Commonwealth PAC plays a clip of Cameron calling for moving to a “no-money bail system.” The ad then ties Cameron to Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg: “Cameron agrees with the Soros-backed D.A. who prosecuted Trump.”

And this morning, the group State Solutions Inc. is up with a TV ad attacking Beshear over transgender kids and sex changes. “So it doesn’t help that Andy Beshear would allow for sex changes for children as young as eight and nine years old. That’s right: Beshear seems to think young children are ready to make decisions about permanently changing their gender.”

“Woke” ideology and bureaucrats, Covid restrictions, transgender issues, Alvin Bragg — yep, this is your GOP issue bingo card.

Of course, Kentucky has also been home to recent crises — last week’s deadly storm, as well as this week’s deadly shooting (where Beshear was a close friend to one of the victims). 

And it’s worth pointing out: Kentucky’s off-year race for governor has been a recently reliable predictor of the national environment heading into a presidential year, despite it’s red-leaning nature in federal contests.

In 2011, Beshear’s father — Steve — won re-election, serving as a precursor to Barack Obama’ re-election the next year.

In 2015, the Trump-like Matt Bevin shocked the GOP establishment and the general-election polling, like Trump did the next year.

And in 2019, the moderate Beshear defeated Bevin after a chaotic four-year term.

Sound familiar?

Headline of the day

 Data Download: The number of the day is … $33.4 million

That’s how much House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., raised for House Democrats in the first quarter of 2023 as he looks to fill the Democratic coffers ahead of the quest to retake control of the House in 2024. 

As NBC News’ Ali Vitali exclusively reports, Jeffries has spent about a month on the road since the start of the year, traveling more than 20,000 miles. 

“Fundraising was one of the key areas that Jeffries had the biggest shoes — or stilettos, as some have joked — to fill from his predecessor,” Vitali writes on the Meet the Press Blog, noting former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s prolific fundraising during her time as the top House Democrat. 

Read more on the Meet the Press Blog

Other numbers to know

5%: The inflation rate in March, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, down from 6% in February.

Two-thirds: The share of new sedans that the Environmental Protection Agency expects to be electric by 2032, due to its new proposed auto emissions standards that were announced on Wednesday. 

$500 million: The amount for which former President Donald Trump is suing his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, a key witness in the Manhattan hush money case against Trump. 

At least 20: The number of states that have imposed restrictions on transgender athletes, after North Dakota GOP Gov. Doug Burgum signed two transgender athlete bans into law

9: The number of media outlets suing for access to Capitol Hill surveillance tapes from Jan. 6, 2021, which Speaker Kevin McCarthy gave to Fox News host Tucker Carlson in February.

69: The number of GOP members of Congress who filed an amicus brief urging an appeals court to uphold a Texas judge’s decision to ban a medical abortion pill nationally.

16: The age of a worker in a Kansas slaughterhouse who told NBC News he is still working to clean and sanitize the facility — after the company that employs him paid a $1.5 million fine and agreed to stop employing children.

Eyes on 2024: South Carolina meets Iowa

Two South Carolina Republicans are hitting the presidential campaign trail in Iowa this week, with both trying to appeal to GOP voters who are looking for new leadership. 

Former Gov. Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott, who announced Wednesday he’s launching an exploratory committee, campaigned in the Hawkeye State making their pitches to voters, NBC News’ Ali Vitali and Jillian Frankel report from the trail. 

“The same man who’s pitching a hopeful vision of America, also leaned into culture wars and demonized the opposing party—from spending ‘more time on CRT than they do on ABC’ to ‘wide open’ borders,” Vitali and Frankel wrote following Scott’s event in Cedar Rapids.

“The good news is the American people are just fine. It’s the American government that we have to fix,” Scott said.  

Vitali and Frankel also caught up with Haley in Fort Dodge on Tuesday, where Haley pledged to “shake every hand” and “talk to every person.”

Vitali and Frankel note that Haley didn’t mention Trump by name, but made a veiled reference to him by saying, “You’re not gonna see me come in and do a rally and leave.”

The two events underscore the emerging rivalry between Haley and Scott, who are looking to pitch themselves as alternatives to Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the Washington Post reports. 

In other campaign news…

Life’s a beach: NBC News’ Matt Dixon reports that Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is reaching out to Florida members of Congress to try to get them not to endorse former President Donald Trump. And Politico reports DeSantis is holding a meet-and-greet with Republicans in D.C. this month. 

Trump talk: Trump is in New York to testify in a civil lawsuit related to his real estate business. And one of Trump’s lawyers is asking to delay his civil rape and defamation lawsuit a month, requesting a “cooling off” period after Trump’s unrelated indictment last week. 

Debate night in America: Fox News will host the first GOP presidential debate, with the Young America’s Foundation and the conservative video-streaming site Rumble, in Milwaukee in August.  

Friends forever? The Associated Press reports on how Iowa’s evangelical community is approaching the 2024 presidential bid amid the bond that’s developed with Trump over the last seven years. 

Exploratory explainer: Sen. Tim Scott’s decision to launch a presidential exploratory committee might have you wondering what an exploratory committee is. NBC News’ Megan Lebowitz has you covered

A challenger’s challenge: Florida lawyer Keith Gross announced a Senate bid as a Republican, an uphill bid against GOP Sen. Rick Scott. 

A Trump bump: Trump posted on his Truth Social platform praising businessman Bernie Moreno’s newly announced Senate bid in Ohio, saying “he would not be easy to beat.” 

Peach State primary: Georgia is hoping to experience an economic boost if it becomes an early primary state, NBC News’ Alex Seitz-Wald reports. 

ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world

Shelby County commissioners voted to reinstate former Democratic state Rep. Justin Pearson in the Tennessee state House after Pearson was expelled for protesting against gun violence on the House floor. 

NPR plans to shut down the organization’s official Twitter accounts after the platform labeled it a “state-affiliated media” group, a designation NPR disputes.

After classified documents circulated online for weeks before being spotted, the Biden administration and intelligence agencies plan to monitor social media more closely in the future, NBC News’ Carol E. Lee, Ken Dilanian and Dan De Luce report.