WASHINGTON — If it’s Friday. ... The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index. ... Senate Republicans tank a bill aimed at helping veterans exposed to toxic burn pits. ... The House passes the computer-chip bill, sending it to President Biden’s desk for his signature. ... Next week features big primaries in Arizona, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state, plus that constitutional amendment referendum on abortion in Kansas. ... And farewell NBC’s Pete Williams; we are going to miss you!
But first: If Republicans blow their chance to win control of the U.S. Senate — in this political environment — they will have one person to blame:
Donald Trump.
That’s the clear takeaway from a pair of Fox News polls showing Democrat John Fetterman leading Republican Mehmet Oz by double digits in Pennsylvania (47%-36%), and Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., ahead of GOP challenger Herschel Walker by 4 points in Georgia (46%-42%), though that’s within the poll’s margin of error.
In the gubernatorial contests, Democrat Josh Shapiro leads Republican Doug Mastriano by 10 points (50%-40%), and incumbent GOP Gov. Brian Kemp is up over Democrat Stacey Abrams by 3 points (47%-44%), which is also within the margin of error.
Why are Trump’s fingerprints all over these GOP deficits? Well, Trump personally handpicked Walker to run against Warnock, which kept other Georgia Republicans out of the race.
And in Pennsylvania, Trump’s late endorsement of Oz carried the celebrity doctor — barely — across the primary finish line over establishment fav David McCormick. (Had Trump not endorsed Oz or simply withheld an endorsement, it’s likely McCormick would have been the nominee.)
Look also at these fav/unfav numbers in the Fox News polls.
In Georgia:
- Kemp: 52% fav, 44% unfav (+8)
- Warnock: 48% fav, 47% unfav (+1)
- Abrams: 47% fav, 48% unfav (-1)
- Walker: 43% fav, 48% unfav (-5)
- Trump: 43% fav, 54% (-11)
- Biden: 41% fav, 56% unfav (-15)
In Pennsylvania:
- Shapiro: 51% fav, 34% unfav (+17)
- Fetterman: 49% fav, 34% unfav (+15)
- Trump: 44% fav, 54% unfav (-10)
- Mastriano: 38% fav, 48% unfav (-10)
- Biden: 42% fav, 57% unfav (-15)
- Oz: 35% fav, 55% unfav (-20)
Bottom line: The Republican governor Trump tried to defeat (Kemp) has a much higher fav/unfav rating than the candidates Trump has endorsed (Walker, Mastriano, Oz).
Now some important caveats: We still have three-plus months to go until November’s elections. The GOP’s Senate map extends beyond these two states — into Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire (and they’re trying to expand it beyond that). President Biden’s numbers are ugly. And given what happened in 2016 and 2020, polls showing Dem candidates up double digits in Pennsylvania give us some pause.
Still, Trump’s involvement in these races — as well as his presence on the national stage — has helped turn what should be a referendum on Biden and Democratic control of Congress into a choice.
And next week, we head into another battleground state (Arizona) where Trump has made two controversial endorsements (Blake Masters for Senate, Kari Lake for governor).
Tweet of the day
Data Download: The number of the day is … 24
That’s how many House Republicans voted for a bill aimed at boosting domestic computer-chip production, a move aimed at countering China, which passed the chamber Thursday despite GOP frustrations over the politics surrounding the bill.
While the legislation had once been seen as clearly bipartisan, Republican leaders and some previous supporters starting whipping against the bill after Democrats unveiled their unrelated reconciliation deal. (Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said earlier this month he wouldn’t back the semiconductor deal unless Democrats dropped their reconciliation push, and West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s previous comments had been seen as dimming the prospects for any reconciliation deal.)
Other numbers to know:
25: The number of Republican senators who had previously supported a bill to help veterans exposed to toxic burn pits during their service who on Thursday voted to block its advancement. Republicans say they want to vote on an amendment to the bill.
$200,000: How much Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes raised in 24 hours, his campaign announced Thursday, as two of his Senate primary rivals dropped out and endorsed Barnes.
$14.9 million: How much one of those Wisconsin Senate candidates, Alex Lasry, loaned his campaign, including a $2.6 million loan to his campaign earlier this month, per a new campaign finance report.
73: The number of migrants found living in houses operated by smugglers in Washington, D.C
14%: By about how much arrests of undocumented migrants crossing the U.S. southern border have fallen, according to new reporting from NBC News’ Julia Ainsley.
29: How many years the great Pete Williams has worked at NBC News, setting the standard for coverage of the Justice Department and the Supreme Court. Congratulations on an incredible career, Pete, and best wishes on your next chapter!
Midterm roundup: GOP tries to expand Senate map
The National Republican Senatorial Committee has been spending on ads in key battlegrounds, teaming up with GOP candidates on joint ad buys. But the committee is now looking to expand the Senate map.
On Thursday, the NRSC reserved $669,000 worth of airtime in Washington state and $241,000 in Colorado, per AdImpact. Both ad buys begin next week — after Tuesday’s primaries. Washington is holding primaries Tuesday and nurse and veterans advocate Tiffany Smiley is expected to emerge as the top Republican.
The committee’s spending is a signal that Republicans believe they have a shot in the two traditionally Democratic states. Biden won Colorado by 14 points in 2020 and he won Washington by 20 points.
“We have great candidates in Colorado and Washington,” NRSC spokesman Chris Hartline wrote in an email. “Chairman [Rick] Scott said from the beginning of the cycle that our goal was to expand the map.”
Elsewhere on the campaign trail:
Georgia Senate: Warnock is already up with a new ad touting his vote to help pass the semiconductor bill, which he says will shore up jobs in Georgia.
Ohio Senate: NBC News’ Henry Gomez explores whether Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan can pull off an upset in Ohio’s Senate race.
Missouri Senate: Just a few days before the Senate primary, GOP Rep. Vicky Hartzler announced she would not support Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for majority leader if Republicans retake the Senate.
Wisconsin Senate: Democrat Alex Lasry, who dropped his Senate bid earlier this week, is converting $600,000 in ad bookings he had made for his primary bid into spots attacking Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, NBC News’ Natasha Korecki and Adam Edelman report.
Michigan Governor: Michigan Families United, a super PAC backed by prominent GOP donors like the DeVos family and Richard Uihlein, is running a new ad responding to the Democratic Governors Association’s attack ads on Tudor Dixon, telling voters: “Don’t believe the liberal lies.”
Pennsylvania Governor: GOP state Sen. Doug Mastriano is facing criticism for his ties to a right-wing social media platform called Gab, and its founder Andrew Torba, who has voiced anti-Semitic views and said the conservative movement “must be exclusively Christian,” NBC News’ Allan Smith reports. Mastriano responded by saying he rejects anti-Semitism, but blamed the media and Democrats for trying to “distract.”
Wisconsin Governor: The GOP primary for governor in Wisconsin is the latest proxy war between former President Donald Trump and former Vice President Mike Pence, NBC News’ Adam Edelman reports.
Vermont-At Large: Vermont is the only state that’s never sent a woman to either the House or Senate, but that could change this year, per NBC News’ Julie Tsirkin.
Ad watch: All eyes on Washington state
Ahead of Washington’s primary election next week, candidates in the state’s 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts are making their last-minute pitches to voters as two incumbent Republican members of Congress defend themselves from Trump-backed primary challengers.
In the 3rd District, Republican Army veteran Joe Kent (Trump’s pick) is out with a new ad blasting author Heidi St. John as he positions himself as the best Republican alternative to Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler.
Winning For Women Action Fund, a group that supports conservative women, including Herrera Beutler, released an ad this week that attacks Kent for being a socialist and wanting to defund the police.
In the 4th District, four Republicans are running against Rep. Dan Newhouse. The super PAC Defending Main Street is running an ad attacking Loren Culp, who is also backed by Trump. That’s in addition to Newhouse’s own ad that’s been running for over a week where he attacks Culp for “botching” a child sexual abuse investigation. (Culp hasn’t run any TV ads, per AdImpact.)
Washington follows a “Top 2” primary system, where the top two vote-getters on Tuesday will advance to the general election ballot in November.
ICYMI: What else is happening in the world
The Biden administration expects to offer newly retooled Covid booster shots from Pfizer and Moderna in September, the New York Times first reported.
The Washington Post reports that the Department of Homeland Security is missing texts from the lead up to the Jan. 6 attack from both then-acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf and then-acting deputy secretary Ken Cuccinelli.
Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito delivered a speech in Rome last week, USA Today reports, where he dismissed criticism from foreign leaders over his abortion decision and discussed the “battle to protect religious freedom in an increasingly secular society.”
Former President Trump defended his decision to host a Saudi-backed golf tournament and falsely claimed “nobody’s gotten to the bottom of 9/11.”
