The Lid: Trump Card Unlikely to be King in 2016

by Andrew Rafferty /  / Updated 
Image: Donald Trump
Developer Donald Trump displays a copy of his net worth during his announcement that he will seek the Republican nomination for president, Tuesday, June 16, 2015, in the lobby of Trump Tower in New York. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)Richard Drew / AP

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Welcome to The Lid!, your afternoon dose of the 2016 ethos…A day after Jeb Bush entered the 2016 race by emphasizing how inclusive the party must be to take back the White House, Donald Trump kicked off his campaign by declaring, “I’m really rich.”

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'16 AT 30 THOUSAND

Yes, we know that -- if the first Republican presidential debate were held today -- Donald Trump would probably be in it. He might take the spot of the 2012 Iowa caucus winner, Rick Santorum, or the governor of the state where the debate is being held, John Kasich. The reality television star will likely even get a bump in the polls after what was a, well, interesting speech that is generating plenty of media buzz. But here are a few things to keep in mind: A Monmouth University poll released yesterday has Trump sitting at just 2%, making him tied for 11th among current and likely presidential candidates. That is down five points from April and is the second biggest drop among any of the candidates. And he is the second choice of just 1% of GOP voters, according to the poll. Sure, it’s just one poll. But let’s put it on top of our NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey from March that found 74% of Republicans said they could not see themselves supporting him. The only other potential GOP candidate anywhere near that number was Chris Christie at 57%.

And, as First Read noted this morning, Trump should not be taken seriously until he submits the full financial-disclosure report all candidates are required to submit within 30 days of starting a campaign. He can ask for more time, BUT said specifically during his announcement speech, “We don't need extensions or anything, we'll be filling it right on time.” That makes the deadline July 16. Clock is ticking.

POPPING ON NBC POLITICS

Trump is in.

NBC’s Leigh Ann Caldwell has reaction from some of the campaigns in jeopardy of being shut out of the debates, along with one former candidate who relied on the polls to kick start his candidacy.

“Donald Trump is almost certainly not going to be the Republican presidential nominee, and his candidacy puts the Republican Party in a quandary over its rules for which candidates to include in debates,” Perry Bacon writes.

VIDEO: Best zingers of the Trump announcement.

First Read details Jeb Bush’s electability challenges.

CAMPAIGN QUICK READS

SANDERS: A new Suffolk poll shows Sanders may be on the rise in New Hampshire. (Remember he is from a state that borders it.)

BUSH:The New York Times reports on an interview that will air on Fox tonight: “Jeb Bush said Tuesday that the enhanced interrogation techniques deployed by his brother after Sept. 11 attacks were no longer appropriate, that he hoped the Supreme Court would rule against same-sex marriage, and mocked Hillary Rodham Clinton for passing few laws during her eight years in the Senate.”

CLINTON: The Wall Street Journal outlines where we stand on the Clinton email disclosures.

FOR THE RECORD…

“[Trump] adds some much-needed seriousness that has previously been lacking from the GOP field, and we look forward hearing more about his ideas for the nation.”

  • Democratic National Committee’s response to Trump’s 2016 announcement

TOMORROW’S SKED

Donald Trump holds a rally at Manchester Community College in New Hampshire.

Hillary Clinton holds an event in Orangeburg, S.C.

Scott Walker is on a trade mission to Canada.

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