CHUCK TODD:
This Sunday, leaving the party. Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema says she is leaving the Democratic Party and registering as an Independent.
SEN. KYRSTEN SINEMA:
I'm willing to work with anyone to get things done.
CHUCK TODD:
Her decision complicates Democrats’ plans for the future and their hopes of holding control in 2024.
SEN. KYRSTEN SINEMA:
My stand today is about joining the many Americans who don’t’ believe that any political party fits them perfectly.
CHUCK TODD:
I'll talk to Democratic Senator Jon Tester of Montana, who understands the challenges of being a Democrat in a red state. Plus, freed from Russia.
PRES. JOE BIDEN:
Welcome home, Brittney.
CHUCK TODD:
Basketball star Brittney Griner is freed from Russia in a prisoner exchange for a convicted arms dealer known as the “Merchant of Death.”
SEN. TOM COTTON:
It was a dangerous concession of Vladimir Putin and it will set a dangerous precedent going forward.
CHUCK TODD:
Is the U.S. putting more lives at risk with this deal? I'll talk to former U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara who put the Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout behind bars. And, liability. After his hand-picked candidate lost the Georgia runoff, Donald Trump is increasingly becoming a liability for his party and himself.
SEN. MITT ROMNEY”
He’s, if you will, the kiss of death for someone who wants to win a general election.
CHUCK TODD:
Trump's company was found guilty of criminal tax fraud, more classified documents were discovered and now the special counsel is moving quickly in its investigation. Could a criminal referral from the January 6th committee be the next shoe? Joining me for insight and analysis are NBC News Chief White House correspondent Kristen Welker, NBC News Senior Capitol Hill correspondent Garrett Haake, Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher and Republican strategist Sara Fagen. Welcome to Sunday, it's Meet the Press.
ANNOUNCER:
From NBC News in Washington, the longest-running show in television history, this is Meet the Press, with Chuck Todd.
CHUCK TODD:
And a good Sunday morning. Well, the Democratic Party's celebration of Raphael Warnock's Georgia victory -- well, that lasted less than three days. On Friday, Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema poured some cold water on that celebration. She announced she's leaving the party to become an Independent. It's a vote that still leaves Republicans short of any sort of working majority or even a 50/50 designation. But this does complicate the Democrats Senate and presidential math in 2024.Sinema’s move, in some ways, is an exclamation point on a midterm cycle that was less an endorsement of Democrats than it was a repudiation of the Trump wing of the Republican Party. And Sinema appears to be trying to go where she thinks the voters have already gone. In Arizona, Democrats trail Republicans and Independents in overall party registration. And nationally, voters are starting to opt out of either of the two major parties. In fact, according to Gallup, more Americans call themselves Independents than Republicans or Democrats. And that's been true now for over a decade. In fact, in 19 of the 31 states that track registration by party, one of the two major parties is actually in third place behind either an Independent or unaffiliated designation. In the Senate, Sinema has rhetorically leaned into an independent streak, but on governing, she has voted with Democrats 93% of the time. Now,she did block attempts to change Senate rules on the filibuster to pass voting rights legislation or to codify abortion protection. She also an increase on the corporate tax rate. And she voted against raising the minimum wage with a visible thumbs down on the Senate floor. And for those actions, Sinema was censured by the Arizona Democratic Party earlier this year. Her Democratic colleagues and Democratic leadership in Washington were quite quiet when progressives unloaded on her earlier this year.
[BEGIN TAPE]
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS:
Two Democrats voted against us. That was a terrible, terrible vote. And I think what the Arizona Democratic Party did was exactly right.
REP. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ:
I don't believe she's really given a compelling case as to why she should be renominated as the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Arizona. She has proven herself an obstacle to the right to vote in the United States. She is not an ally on civil rights. She is not doing what voters in Arizona sent her to do.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
So from her perspective, it was probably an open question whether progressive Democrats even wanted her in the party. Already in Arizona, Sinema’s potential 2024 Democratic opponents are lining up to pile on the criticism. Congressman Ruben Gallego said Sinema “is once again putting her own interests ahead of getting things done for Arizonans.” And Congressman Greg Stanton tweeted that her party switch is about “political preservation” and he signaled his own interest in running. So what are national Democrats going to do? Will the White House help clear the field and help Sinema? Because White House Press Secretary Karime Jean-Pierre called Sinema a key partner following her decision. I mean, she provided a lot of those bipartisan victories that Biden touts. But the president himself has at times have singled Sinema negatively.
[BEGIN TAPE]
REPORTER:
It sounds like you're putting the blame squarely on two U.S. senators for your inability to close that deal -- Senator Sinema and Senator Manchin.
PRES. JOE BIDEN:
Look, I need 50 votes in the Senate. I have 48.
Two more Democratic senators to the United States Senate, and I promise you, I promise you we're going to codify Roe.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD
Alright, so how are some other swing and red state Democrats responding to this Sinema party switch? Joining me now is Senator Jon Tester. He is the only Democrat elected to statewide office in Montana. in 2020 Donald Trump carried in Montana by more than 16 points. In 2012, the last election when Tester was on the ballot with the presidential campaign, Tester was able to run ahead of Barack Obama by seven percentage points. Senator Jon Tester, welcome back to Meet the Press.
CHUCK TODD:
All right, so how are some other swing and red state Democrats responding to this Sinema party switch? Joining me now is Senator Jon Tester. He is the only Democrat elected to statewide office in Montana. In 2020, Donald Trump carried Montana by more than 16 points. In 2012, the last election when Tester was on the ballot with the presidential campaign, Tester was able to run ahead of Barack Obama by seven percentage points. Senator Jon Tester, welcome back to Meet the Press.
SEN. JON TESTER:
Good to be with you, Chuck. Thank you.
CHUCK TODD:
All right. So I guess on a scale of one to ten, to complete shock or, "this is just another day at the office," where do you put the Sinema changing her party affiliation to Independent?
SEN. JON TESTER:
Look, I was surprised she made the change, but functionally, I don't think it changes a thing. I think we're going to continue doing the same thing that we were doing whether she's an Independent or part of the Democratic caucus, because she's going to continue to caucus with the Democrats. So we'll still have the committee structures that we've had before as far as having one more Democrat. And functionally, I don't think it changes a thing, and that's a good thing. So we look forward to working -- I look forward to working with her as I have in the past to try to get good things done for the country.
CHUCK TODD:
I want to talk about that relationship. Look, Arizona Democrats do not, are not happy with her at all. I want to just run down some of the critiques. The state party chair said, she “answers to corporations and billionaires, not Arizonans." The executive director of LUCHA, a local organization down there, called it, "another unfortunate, selfish act." You have a progressive political consultant based in Phoenix, Ian Danley saying, "everything she's done has been in service of Kyrsten Sinema." Is that your experience working with her?
SEN. JON TESTER:
No. Look, I had a good experience working with Kyrsten on a number of different topics, but especially the bipartisan infrastructure package that we put together with ten folks: five Democrats, five Republicans, of which I was one of the Democrats and she was too. We worked hard together, we argued, and we fought, and we came up with a pretty darn good bill. And I think that's the process, Chuck, you know that your enemy one day is your friend tomorrow, and vice versa. And it's about keeping relationships in Washington, D.C. if you're going to get things done. And I think that Kyrsten Sinema knows that, and I think whether she's a Democrat or she's a Republican, that really doesn't matter. The label doesn't matter. What matters is you got to have to have somebody in Washington DC that wants to get things done and move things forward. We certainly have enough obstructionists in Washington, D.C. So look, I think she has a pretty good track record of getting things done. Has she been perfect on everything from my perspective? No. But I haven't been perfect from her perspective either. So I think you just work together, you do things, and move the country forward. And I think that's what we did last Congress.
CHUCK TODD:
Let me ask you this, though. You know, you and her basically share the same position on the filibuster, yet she was vilified for it, you have not. Why do you think that is?
SEN. JON TESTER:
Well, I mean, I was for going back to the days of Mr. Smith Goes to Washington filibuster, where people talked and could hold the floor for weeks on end if they wanted. But in the end, it was a simple majority vote after the people got done with a talking filibuster. I think she had a different view, but I can't remember exactly what that view was on that.
CHUCK TODD:
Right, but it's more similar. You're not for just getting rid of the filibuster completely the way many of your colleagues are, correct?
SEN. JON TESTER:
No. No, that is absolutely correct. I think the filibuster does serve an important purpose, and it certainly is one of the things that makes the Senate different than the House, and thank God for that.
CHUCK TODD:
But do you think there are even 48 votes for your position in the Senate?
SEN. JON TESTER:
You know, it's hard to say. I mean, I think as with any piece of legislation, or any policy, or any rules reform, it’s about explaining to folks-- and by the way, I think this has to be done in a bipartisan way -- and explaining to folks about how this is going to make the Senate work better. I always believed that if you're going to obstruct, you have to put some skin in the game. And I don't think right now folks who obstruct put any skin in the game. They can – they can object, and they can walk away, and they can go home, and some of them have. And I think it's more important that they work at their obstruction. And look, if I want to obstruct a bill, I'm more than willing to do that. I'm willing to go down and hold the floor and get people with the same opinion to hold the floor with me. That puts leadership in a heck of a bind when it comes to the filibuster. And so I think it does still keep minority rights, which is what the filibuster is about.
CHUCK TODD:
You know, you actually vote less with Joe Biden than Kyrsten Sinema does. You're comfortable being a Democrat in Montana. Why is that?
SEN. JON TESTER:
Look, I'm also a farmer. And I can tell you that we would not have the farm today if it was not for the Democratic politics of FDR. And my grandfather and grandmother talked to us about that, my folks talked to me about that. And I will tell you that I am forever grateful for that, because I'm blessed to be a farmer, I love agriculture, and I wouldn't be one without the Democrats.
CHUCK TODD:
Well, I say that because I'm sure you're going to get a lot of questions in Montana, "Hey, why don't you leave the party?" And do you think that's going to be a good enough answer for that middle-of-the-road voter that you need to win?
SEN. JON TESTER:
I think what we need to focus on is what we've accomplished, whether it's for veterans, infrastructure, bringing jobs back to this country. The list is long. We've -- I've been able to do a lot of good things, working with other people in a bipartisan way in the United States Senate, working for small businesses and working families, and family farm agriculture. That's what I'm going to be talking about as a record of accomplishment if I choose to run. And if we're able to do that and get that message out effectively, I will win as I've won in the past. If we're not effective in that, of course, then it's going to be a different outcome. You know --but if I decide to run in this thing, and it'll be a discussion that I have with my family over the holidays because it is a big undertaking, I feel good about my chances. People are going to come after me. They've come after me in the past. But nonetheless, that's politics, and we'll get through it and hopefully be successful come November of 2024.
CHUCK TODD:
Before I move on from this topic, do you want to see Senator Sinema reelected?
SEN. JON TESTER:
Look, that's a choice for the Arizona voters, number one. And number two, I certainly have no bones to pick with Kyrsten Sinema. I think she's served this country well. And look, it will be a choice -- you know, elections are about choices. And the Arizona people are going to have a choice, now whether it's a Democrat, an Independent, or a Republican that represents them in the United States Senate along with Senator Kelly. And they'll make that call based on probably the same kind of information they will in any state in the union.
CHUCK TODD:
And do you think Democratic leadership should give her some deference the way they give Angus King deference?
SEN. JON TESTER:
I mean, sure. I think they should ought to try to treat everybody equally, for sure. And I don't know that Angus King gets deference --
CHUCK TODD:
Well, they don’t field, they don’t fund a Democratic candidate out there.
SEN. JON TESTER:
-- but Angus King is a heck of a good guy that does a really good job.
CHUCK TODD:
Yes, they don't fund an official Democrat in Maine.
SEN. JON TESTER:
Yeah, okay. I mean, that may be, that may be the case. I'm not aware of that. But the truth is that Angus does a great job and deserves to be reelected in Maine, and one of my favorite people in the Senate, as a matter of fact. I really like this guy. He's done a great job and brings a great tool set to the Senate. And I think that's what it's based on more than anything else. It's how you performed. Are you a team player? Are you working together? Are you working to move the country forward? And they'll make that call. I can't say. I mean, that's really a call for the next chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
CHUCK TODD:
I want to talk to you a little bit about the midterms overall.
SEN. JON TESTER:
Yes.
CHUCK TODD:
I've had you on here to talk about Democrats and rural voters. I have to show you this number. You know, when you were last up for reelection Democrats didn't get clobbered in rural America. In 2018, they got 42% of the vote, Republicans got 56%. That is a competitive landscape, it's why you won reelection. In 2022, a year that Democrats are claiming was a pretty good year, the split in rural America, Senator, 63/34. Democrats got clobbered in rural America. They only lucked out that turnout in rural America wasn't that great. What’s got to change here?
SEN. JON TESTER:
We’ve got to focus our message more on the things we're doing for rural America. I'll give you a prime example. I’ve got a couple of bills that deal with big packers and meat consolidation, and how the market, I believe, is totally manipulated. And if we can get those bills through, it'll allow for folks that are cow/calf operators to be able to make a living. If we're able to do that this Congress, Democrats will have done that, and hopefully there will be Republicans -- and I'm sure there will be, as a matter of fact, because we’ve got Chuck Grassley on board and others -- to get some of these bills across the line. But we need to talk about it, and we don't talk about it near enough. The infrastructure package is a prime example. It's going to help rural America bigtime when it comes to broadband, and electrical distribution, and roads, and bridges. We didn't talk about it. We didn't talk about it from a rural perspective. It has to be a concentrated effort, and we are very bad at message. And we need to work at that and get that message out to rural America, so rural America knows who's fighting for them. And I think it's across the board. And if we're able to do that and do that effectively, Chuck, you'll see those numbers change.
CHUCK TODD:
I want to get to two issues, one that's pretty pressing here in the lame duck, the issue of the debt ceiling.
SEN. JON TESTER:
Yes.
CHUCK TODD:
Senate Major Leader Chuck Schumer has said he wants to raise it with a bipartisan majority. I get that desire. But if you guys punt the debt ceiling issue this lame duck, and Republicans use it to hold the economy hostage, to hold Biden hostage, whatever they want to do, isn't the blame on Democrats right now for not dealing with this problem, even though it may be a one-party vote?
SEN. JON TESTER:
No. This is, this is an insane situation we're in, in that we're simply paying the bills like you would your credit card bill or your housing payment you make to buy your house. For Republicans or anybody to hold up the debt ceiling vote is political malpractice. It will raise interest rates across the board. We saw it happen the last time this was just talked about. And you cannot expect to be able to complete with a place like China, who's looking to replace us as an economic power in the world, if we're going to have these silly fights over debt ceiling. And they're silly fights. Look, if this is going to be the case, we ought to just change it. Ad we vote for the bill, the debt ceiling vote goes right with it, so the bill goes up or down with the debt ceiling --
CHUCK TODD:
Would you just eliminate it at this point?
SEN. JON TESTER:
--if that's what we're going to do. Well, I think truthfully, we can do just what I said, or we could let the president do it with an override of, say, a two-thirds margin from the Congress. But the truth is, to have this fight and hold the country hostage over something that truly could be very damaging to the economy of this country is nothing short of ridiculous. And it's why people don't like Democrats, they don't like Republicans, and they don't like Congress. This is a silly fight to be having.
CHUCK TODD:
Speaking of, of perhaps not liking Congress, when they find out how many members of Congress took crypto money. Let me ask you this, you used some colorful language to describe crypto. You're not alone here. But should the government be regulating it or banning it?
SEN. JON TESTER:
Look, one or the other. I mean, I have not -- it's not been able to pass the smell test for me. I have not been able to find anybody who's been able to explain to me what's there other than synthetics, and -- which means nothing, and --
CHUCK TODD:
Air?
SEN. JON TESTER:
Yes, exactly. And the problem is if we regulate it, and I pointed this out to some of the regulators here a week or two ago, if we regulated it, it may give it the ability of people to think it's real. I think it’s -- truth be known, my personal thought, and I'm not a regulator and I'm not a financial person that does regulation, but I see no reason why this stuff should exist. I really don't.
CHUCK TODD:
I get that. And finally, on the prisoner exchange, Viktor Bout for Brittney Griner. What is your level of concern that this was a successful tactic for Putin?
SEN. JON TESTER:
Well look, I think any time we can get an American out of jail that's in prison improperly, I think we ought to celebrate that. I think people can always say, "Well, we should've gotten more or we shouldn't have done the deal at all." In the end, I can tell you for a fact that the State Department continues to negotiate for the release of other Americans that are out there. But I think in Brittney Griner's case, we ought to say, "Good for Brittney Griner." I'm happy for her, I'm happy for her family, I'm happy for America. And we need to continue to work to get the other folks out too.
CHUCK TODD:
All right. Senator Jon Tester, Democrat from Montana. Always great to get your perspective on things. I'm curious, what do you think Governor John Dutton is doing these days?
SEN. JON TESTER:
He's out causing problems, I'm telling you.
CHUCK TODD:
There you go. We'll find out more tonight.
SEN. JON TESTER:
I’ll be honest with -- Sounds good.
CHUCK TODD:
All right. Of course, referring to Yellowstone's, of course, fictional governor there. Senator Jon Tester, thank you. When we come back, more on Senator Sinema's party switch. What's the real impact? The panel is next.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back, panel is here. NBC News Chief White House Correspondent, Kristen Welker. She's also co-anchor of Weekend Today. NBC News senior Capitol Hill correspondent Garrett Haake. Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher. And Republican strategist Sara Fagen. Well, Garrett, I think we will start here with your beat. Senator Sinema, what is her reputation on Capitol Hill? We know Democrats don't like her in Arizona. She clearly did not do her local politics. But senators do seem to like her. Is that the sense you get?
GARRETT HAAKE:
She's kind of an enigma. I mean, she tends to stick to herself. She's not as social with fellow Democrats. I mean, the person who I see her spend the most time talking to on the Senate floor is usually John Thune. And this is somebody who has good relationships across the aisle, but she can be difficult to deal with. I mean, we saw this even in the infrastructure negotiations and other bills in which she was intimately involved. There was -- in some ways, there was the Democratic position. There was a Republican position. And then, there was trying to figure out what Kyrsten Sinema's position is. And unlike, say, a Joe Manchin, who also, you know, can rub his colleagues the wrong way, there was never any question of what Joe Manchin wanted in these kinds of things. He was very outspoken about it. Sinema is simply much harder to read. And I think we're seeing that play out, even now.
CHUCK TODD:
Let me play a video from her, Kristen, which really looks like the first bio spot for her reelection.
[BEGIN TAPE]
SEN. KYRSTEN SINEMA:
Registering as an Independent and showing up to work with the title of Independent is a reflection of who I've always been. And it's a reflection of who Arizona is. Nothing's going to change for me. And I don't think anything's going to change for Arizona.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
Does anything change with President Biden's relationship with Kyrsten Sinema?
KRISTEN WELKER:
Well, the White House would like to say, "No." And I think it's notable that you played that video. It's almost like she's daring Democrats in the White House to run a progressive against her. White House officials say, "We haven't even had a conversation about that. The president has a good working relationship with Senator Sinema." They're trying to downplay this and point to her voting record. She's voted with President Biden the vast majority of the time. But I've really pressed them: What gives you that confidence that nothing's going to change from a policy perspective? They don't really have a good answer for that, Chuck. They can't say if she's given them personal--
CHUCK TODD:
Well, her vote wasn’t exactly easy to get as a Democrat, so what's the difference?
KRISTEN WELKER:
Exactly. And negotiating was very tough. And I do think it becomes about 2024. Obviously, Arizona, an increasing number of Independents. But this could be a real problem in 2024 for Democrats if she splits this into a three-way race.
CHUCK TODD:
You know, rank-and-file Democrats were having a good time passing around this tape that goes back to
[BEGIN TAPE]
KYRSTEN SINEMA:
Well, the Senate no longer has 60 votes. Some would argue that we never had 60 because one of those was Joseph Lieberman. But that's whatever. So there's none of this pressure, this false pressure to get to 60. So what that means is that the Democrats can stop kowtowing to Joe Lieberman.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
You know, Cornell, from 30,000 feet, it always seems to me that Sinema gets more grief for the same positions that maybe Manchin or Tester has. And I keep wondering, is it because they thought she was, at heart, a progressive, and that this is sort of, "She's a traitor," and they will point to her Green Party days or that?
CORNELL BELCHER:
Well first, let me start with -- Arizona has become such a critical battleground state. And let's also notice that the president was out there this week, right? The president was out there this week, talking about CHIPS —
CHUCK TODD:
Gave Ruben Gallego a ride on Air Force One, by the way.
CORNELL BELCHER:
--talking about the CHIPS Act, which is helping bring tech and manufacturing jobs back to Arizona, so tens of thousands of jobs to Arizona. I think we'd much rather be talking about that right now than Kyrsten Sinema. Voters, as you know, Chuck, will forgive a lot of things. But hypocrisy, as that's been shown right there, that is tough for them to get overlooked. Now, Tester said, "Functioning from a functioning standpoint, nothing changes." And as you pointed out, I mean, she does vote with Democrats 93% of the time. I don't see this fundamentally changing any of what Chuck Schumer does in the Senate, any different than he was before she switched.
CHUCK TODD:
So let's talk 2024. You know, Arizona, there's a good pattern that you can see here, which is the party that is divided loses races, okay? Democrats -- Sinema, Kelly, and arguably even Hobbs didn't have a serious primary challenge. They didn’t and they won. When the Republicans, with the tougher primary challenges, you know, and we've seen it in reverse. Janet Napolitano was a two-term governor because no Democrat challenged her in the primary. What's going to happen?
SARA FAGEN:
Well, look, I think this move was the politically shrewd move on her part. It was really the only move she had if she wanted to get through a Democratic primary, in my view. And the Democratic Party attacking her as being a shill for corporations when she votes with her president over 90% of the time, I mean, that tells you everything you need to know about today's Democratic Party. I think in terms of what happens in '24, it probably depends more on the Republican primary and who is the nominee for the Republicans.
CHUCK TODD:
Kari Lake is sitting there. What's that like?
SARA FAGEN:
Sure. If Kari Lake is sitting there, it looks much easier for Kyrsten Sinema. If it's Doug Ducey, if it's Karrin Robson. All of a sudden, Democrats are doing everything they can to keep that progressive out of the race.
GARRETT HAAKE:
Can I peel back the onion on the idea that she votes for Biden 93% of the time? It's both a useful and a misleading statistic in some ways because in areas in which you broke from in the most are the votes that she prevented from happening. She made very clear she wouldn't vote to change the filibuster rule.
CHUCK TODD:
Good point.
GARRETT HAAKE:
And she made very clear she wouldn't for some of the tax provisions that were in BBB. Those never came to the floor, in large part, because she opposed them. But she did support the president on, I believe, every single one of his judicial nominations. And that's basically all the U.S. Senate's going to be doing for the next two years. So if she keeps voting, "Yes," and Biden judges, she probably stays in the White House’s good graces.
KRISTEN WELKER:
And I think that's such a great point, Garrett. And it's part of why negotiating with her is so frustrating, as you point out. A lot of times, they don't know her position until the very end. But taking a step back, I think this moment also is just a reflection of how partisan the country has become. And if you look at the polls, a majority of voters are frankly just fed up with both parties that increasingly are saying, "Let's have an Independent."
CHUCK TODD:
Or as I like to say, the Republican Party is a very unpopular political party. The Democrats are the second most unpopular political party, right? These are not popular institutions.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Exactly. And the question is: Is there going to be more momentum for the center and for people to come back to the center? And this really, I think, highlights that.
CHUCK TODD:
Cornell, she wants to fashion herself as a McCain Republican
CORNELL BELCHER:
Yeah.
CHUCK TODD:
One of the things that we've made notice here is that the biggest difference between her and McCain is not being a thorn in the side of her own party; it's John McCain went out there and explained why he was being a thorn on the side of the party. I think the frustration with her is she never explains herself and so she becomes a two-dimensional figure, easier to caricature, where John McCain, because he was out there all the time, he was harder to caricature.
CORNELL BELCHER:
Look. You just had a Democrat win that seat by what, five points? That's pretty darn good in a state that has traditionally been red and running on, quite frankly, a lot of things that she already voted for, right? But it is retail politics 101. If I had one really sort of major criticism, aside from what the left is doing, coming at her for, retail politics, Chuck. You've got to do your retail politics.
CHUCK TODD:
It's pretty clear she didn't do the little stuff at home.
CORNELL BELCHER:
She has not been doing the basic retail politics.
CHUCK TODD:
Manchin, Tester --they don't allow that stuff to fester. She did. Almost, she almost enjoyed the fester.
CORNELL BELCHER:
But look at Tester, the interview with Tester, Tester explaining why he's a Democrat and why he's taking a stand. People don't want you to be with them 100% of the time, but they want to understand you.
SARA FAGEN:
I think it's a good point. However, I would say any break with the orthodoxy of the Democratic Party, which is increasingly progressive, means that you are cut out. And, you know, she is really an example of that. She challenged her party. And as a result of it, she was going to be primaried.
CHUCK TODD:
Is this going to get contagious if she's successful, Garrett? How many other senators would secretly wish they could actually go outside the party structure?
GARRETT HAAKE:
I don't think so. I mean, I still think, given how partisan the country has become, to Kristen's point, the party's going to do you more favors than not, and especially in a 50-50 Senate. I mean, I think to the degree over the next two years, whether we have functionally a 51-49 Senate or a 50-49 and one, will show us. I mean, the idea of being a team player. If she operates like Bernie Sanders or Angus King, it's a wash. But if she really tries to hold herself apart in a way that Evan McMullin, for example held himself out to do if he had won in Utah, we're looking at a very different picture.
KRISTEN WELKER:
That's why I thought Jon Tester's answer to you was so interesting when you asked him, "Are you comfortable being a Democrat in Montana?" And clearly, he is. He talked about FDR and the importance of continuing that. And so I think that it is a very risky strategy, Chuck. It's not clear a lot of people have been following her.
CHUCK TODD:
Especially when she acts like a hermit and does that. That's the issue.
CORNELL BELCHER:
Well, really quickly, look, we know there's not going to be this movement because you know how much a Senate race costs? No. There's not going to be an independent movement. You need the party structures.
CHUCK TODD:
That is probably extraordinary important. All right. Party switching, of course, not unheard of in the United States Senate. According to the body's historian, 21 senators have changed parties while serving in the upper chamber since 1890. Wayne Morse is my favorite example. He was a Democrat, an Independent, and a Republican at one point in the state of Oregon. But the last time a Democratic senator did this was in '06, Connecticut's Joe Lieberman. He was hurt by his support for the Iraq War inside the Democratic Party, lost a primary because of it. He chose to run as an Independent in the general election and he won. Lieberman explained his decision to became an Independent Democrat on this program right after that election.
[BEGIN TAPE]
SEN. JOE LIEBERMAN:
I'm going to continue to do what I've always done and even more so, which is to work across party lines with my colleagues to get things done for my state and country. To me, that is my singular mission. And I'll work with anybody I agree with on a matter. I'm not going to look at party labels. I'm going to look at what can we get done for our country and my state.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
Up next, he's already admitted he took the highly classified documents to his Florida home. So will Donald Trump ultimately be punished for that crime? Former U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara is here to discuss.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. American basketball player and two-time gold medalist Brittney Griner is back in the United States. She touched down in Texas on Friday for medical evaluation, reunited with her wife, Cherelle, after 294 days in Russian captivity, including at a penal colony. New video released by Russian state media appears to show Griner working in one of Russia's penal colonies where she spent the past month. Griner was exchanged for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout. He was nicknamed "the merchant of death." He has served nearly 11 years of a 25-year sentence in the United States on charges including conspiring to kill Americans. Many Republicans are criticizing this swap.
[BEGIN TAPE]
SEN. TOM COTTON:
We should have never released Viktor Bout. It was a dangerous concession of Vladimir Putin, and it will set a dangerous precedent going forward.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
Preet Bharara prosecuted Bout in his role is U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York.
[BEGIN TAPE]
PREET BHARARA:
Arms dealer Viktor Bout begins to face American justice. The so-called "merchant of death" is now a federal inmate. No one should ever think that he can plot to kill Americans with impunity.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
And Preet Bharara joins me now. Preet, welcome to Meet the Press.
PREET BHARARA:
Good to be here.
CHUCK TODD:
Let me start with what you can what you can tell us about Viktor Bout. How dangerous of a man is he?
PREET BHARARA:
Dangerous man. I don't know who that young guy was you had on the screen a moment ago.
CHUCK TODD:
He looked good. He did. Promising future.
PREET BHARARA:
I don't recognize that person--
CHUCK TODD:
Promising future in television.
PREET BHARARA:
Look, everyone is happy, if you're an American or not an American that Brittney Griner, who was I think unfairly and illegitimately detained in Russia, is back home with her family. We're happy for her. We're happy for her family. At the same time, you might imagine, that not as just a general prosecutor, but the prosecutor who oversaw the prosecution and conviction of Viktor Bout has a view about how dangerous a person he was. He's, as you said, someone who was convicted at trial by unanimous jury of conspiracy to kill Americans. He was convicted of conspiracy to provide materials support to terrorists. He's on tape with confidential informants planning to sell hundreds of surface-to-air missiles to the FARC, also sell 30,000 AK47s to the FARC for the stated purpose of shooting down American helicopters in Columbia. So he was a dangerous man then. I don't know how dangerous he is now. Presumably, I have a lot of respect and trust in the Biden administration, is his ability to engage in trafficking of armaments at a time when Russia is at war with Ukraine, is it diminished? Is the operational still possible? I don't know the answers to those questions. But I think people of good faith can in good faith ask questions and be concerned about it, even when we're very, very happy that Brittney Griner's back in the U.S.
CHUCK TODD:
What does this do? Does this hurt morale at the Justice Department? Does it, I mean, I know, look, officially justice was against this decision, but they would always have been. This is standard policy to be against that. But does it, does it sap morale?
PREET BHARARA:
You know, I don't know. Look, prosecutors generally, when they've held someone accountable, particularly a dangerous person like Viktor Bout, are not excited about letting them out of prison early. He served 15 years, another about seven to go. And they certainly are not excited about it as a general principle when it's an asymmetric trade: someone who's very, very dangerous being traded for someone who hadn't really done anything wrong. But I think reasonable minds of the Justice Department understand that they have a particular role to play and a particular advocacy to engage in. And it's not ultimately their decision. And I'm sure Americans and others understand that there are other considerations. There are diplomatic considerations. And of course you want to bring Americans home. And you know, I don't know that it saps morale, because they're professionals, as I would have been in this situation as well.
CHUCK TODD:
But you're certainly not happy. That's probably the--
PREET BHARARA:
It's not I'm not happy. I think there's some concern, not just about this particular trade, but as some people in good faith-- now, I'm not talking about the politicians, necessarily, who wonder and worry that if you engage in this kind of trade, deeply asymmetrical trade, does it put other Americans in harm's way in the future.
CHUCK TODD:
We don't negotiate with terrorist organizations unless we do. We don't negotiate for this stuff unless we do. It does feel like we don't have a policy on this anymore.
PREET BHARARA:
You know, I can't speak to that. I just think that, at a time when it's very, very political, and you played some politicians' statements, there are people who don't like Joe Biden's politics. There are people who don't like Brittney Griner's politics. I would hope that there'd be some room for reasonable debate on both sides of the aisle about what the policy should be.
CHUCK TODD:
I want to move to all of the various Trump investigations. There was a lot of movement this week. A federal judge decided not to hold Trump in contempt over these classified documents. I guess the question is he's already admitted he took it. What do you think justice is waiting for?
PREET BHARARA:
Oh, the Justice Department?
CHUCK TODD:
Yeah.
PREET BHARARA:
Oh, look, I think they're, to coin a phrase, loaded for bear. They've appointed a special counsel, Jack Smith. There are a number of very seasoned prosecutors, two of whom I worked with very closely at the Southern District of New York when I was U.S. attorney and before that, who I think are brought on for purposes of figuring out if there's a triable case, a chargeable and triable case. And I don't think they would've left their former positions, both in government and private practice, unless there was a serious possibility that the Justice Department was on a path to charge. And I think it'll happen in a month.
CHUCK TODD:
Is your definition of a triable case meaning you can win it, you have all the evidence? Because you can have all the evidence but not win a trial, right?
PREET BHARARA:
I mean, I think those are intertwined. They're not going to proceed. You generally do not proceed unless you have a great likelihood of success. But the prerequisite is that you believe that the person is guilty of the crime, right? And when you're charging somebody in maybe the highest-stakes trial, in some ways, in history, because it's the former president of the United States, you've got to have all your ducks in a row.
CHUCK TODD:
I was just going to say, as a prosecutor, you're going to say, "Hey look, politics isn't supposed to enter this," but it does. How does it?
PREET BHARARA:
Well, I don't know that politics enters it. I think prosecutors have to be careful about having public trust, right?
CHUCK TODD:
Political fallout.
PREET BHARARA:
Yeah. You keep wanting to use the word "politics." I don't want to use that word. You know the famous phrase, "If you run at the king, you best not miss." There are a lot of people who are going to be opposed to this prosecution. So like any prosecution, you want to have your Ts crossed and your Is dotted. And you want to have proof beyond a reasonable doubt, and you want to have a strong case. I think you want to have an exceptionally strong case when you're bringing it in a context which, I'll use your word, things are very politicized, right. To show not just the jury in the case but the public at large that it was a righteous case, it was a meritorious case, and you have the goods.
CHUCK TODD:
Here's a question that a lot of people have been asking. And I know you weren't involved in this case. But the Manhattan D.A. got a conviction on the Trump Organization. Essentially, it got to conviction by proving Donald Trump's culpability in this tax fraud scheme. What is preventing them from bringing charges against him in your view?
PREET BHARARA:
I don't know. I don't love to comment on other people's cases and why they bring them.
CHUCK TODD:
I understand.
PREET BHARARA:
But look, there's a reason why they didn't bring the case against Donald Trump or an individual. In any organization, there can be, depending on what the emails are, depending what the communications are, depending on what the testimony is, depending on whether or not there's a cooperate, and there was of sort in this case, there's plausible deniability about the knowledge and intent of the person at the top. And in all these cases, whether you're talking about Mar-a-Lago, whether you're talking about January 6th, or whether you're talking about the Trump Organization that the Manhattan D.A.'s office looked at, it always comes down to what can you prove about the intent and the mindset and knowledge of the person at the top. And they probably didn't have it.
CHUCK TODD:
The January 6th committee is likely to issue some criminal referrals to justice, they say. We don't want to pre-judge that, but of the committee, what you saw in what the committee has produced, do you think they've made their case against Donald Trump?
PREET BHARARA:
Well, look, it is not their role to make a criminal case, although they're making a referral. And if you look into the debate, what the value and virtue is of making a criminal referral--
CHUCK TODD:
I can argue both sides of that, good or bad.
PREET BHARARA:
I mean, to me, it's largely symbolic because at the time we first started having this debate about a referral, it wasn't clear how far along the Justice Department was. Since then, the Justice Department has appointed a special counsel, as we mentioned. And they had a lot of staff they've added to the matter. And they're far along, and they've issued subpoenas that we've heard reports about. So they're investigating this thing anyway.
CHUCK TODD:
Do you think that criminal report actually complicates things more than it helps?
PREET BHARARA:
I don't think it complicates things. I actually don't think it does anything for the Justice Department. I don't think it prompts them to do anything more quickly or more aggressively.
CHUCK TODD:
But it doesn't add negatively to the political stew? The word you don't want to use.
PREET BHARARA:
You could argue that. I don't know why they feel the need to do it. I think they want to make a statement for themselves. I think it has no impact on the Justice Department whatsoever.
CHUCK TODD:
Preet Bharara, the former U.S. attorney for SDNY who has a fabulous podcast, by the way--
PREET BHARARA:
Thanks.
CHUCK TODD:
--that I've been been on and listen to. It's good to see you.
PREET BHARARA:
Thanks, Chuck.
CHUCK TODD:
Good to have you here. When we come back, the 2022 midterms are finally over, I swear. What lessons can we learn? I'm going to go inside one of the key counties we were tracking next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. It's Data Download time. This week's Senate runoff win by Democrat Raphael Warnock in Georgia marked the official end of the 2022 midterms. And with that, we wanted to take a look at what we learned from our county-to-county project. This is the set of handpicked counties that we here at NBC News have used to try -- across the country -- to try to examine how different segments of the electorate voted this cycle: younger voters, rural African Americans, Evangelicals, working class voters, and Chamber of Commerce Republicans. So let me start here with rural African Americans. This was a key place to look to see, "Could Democrats flip North Carolina?" Well, you could see here in Anson County the answer is no, and here's one reason. Beasley underperformed Biden in Anson. And you saw turnout in general, she underperformed in all the rural African American counties in North Carolina. Chattooga County, Georgia, this is a big evangelical county, Marjorie Taylor Greene's district here. This was a case where not how Walker was going to do in Georgia, he did really well here, but whether he was going to get the Evangelical turnout. And only 70% of the presidential vote from 2020 turned out in Chattooga. This was a problem all across the state for Walker and why he ended up losing. Let me take you to Dane County. This was our check-in on young voters, home of the University of Wisconsin. Here, Democrats did really well. 90% of the presidential turnout showed up in 2022. Mandela Barnes did better in Dane County than Joe Biden did. Barnes didn't lose Wisconsin because of young voters not showing up. He lost Wisconsin because he underperformed in Milwaukee, by the way. Meanwhile, Delaware County, Ohio's our check-in with Chamber of Commerce Republicans, and you could tell. Mike DeWine did really well in this county. He is more of a center-right Republican. Look at how J.D. Vance, a Trump Republican, did. He still carried it, but by double digits less than what DeWine got. It tells you there's a problem growing here if you're a Trump Republican in some of these places. Luzerne County is a former Democratic union county that had moved towards Trump. Well, I'll tell you this. Democrats carried it in the governor's race, and Fetterman did better than Biden here, indicating that the Trump nominees turned off even some Trump-leaning voters in a county like Luzerne. Up next, Republicans suffered another midterm loss in this Georgia runoff, this week. Why the GOP is starting to say out loud that Donald Trump is a real liability for his party.
CHUCK TODD:
We are back. All right. So Donald Trump officially cost them another Senate seat. Sara Fagen, I want to play -- I know we've been here before. I guess the question is: Is it different this time? Here are some Republican senators who I think are hoping that it's different this time. Take a listen.
[BEGIN TAPE]
SEN. MITT ROMNEY:
He's, if you will, the kiss of death for somebody who wants to win a general election. And at some point, we've got to move on.
SEN. JOHN THUNE:
Was he a factor? I don't think there's any question about that. Because a lot of the candidates that had problems in these elections were running on the 2020 election being stolen. And I don't think independent voters were having it.
SEN. BILL CASSIDY:
What you can say objectively is that those candidates most closely associated with President -- former President Trump underperformed. That is objective.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
Sara Fagen, I mean, Georgia's the best example. This was a state that voted Republican in every race except for one statewide.
SARA FAGEN:
Yeah. I mean, Donald Trump has cost Republicans the Senate twice now. I mean, I don't think that's really in doubt. But the silver lining of this election, perhaps, for Republicans is that our senior leaders are now saying out loud what they've been thinking for a while, and we're going to need more of that. I think it's more profound at the statewide level than it is at the House. I think we're not going to see that trend as much in the House as you head into '24.
CHUCK TODD:
You buy what Peggy Noonan says, that if you really want Trump to go away the voters have to be the final arbiter?
SARA FAGEN:
I completely agree. And I think the future of the Republican Party is so dependent on this next presidential election. Does he run and lose by the vote, or does he succeed? In which case he really cements his hold on the party.
CHUCK TODD:
Cornell, the Democratic -- the victorious Democratic coalition of the last I'd say '18, '20, '22, so three cycles in a row, Donald Trump's played a huge part in it. Right? If Donald Trump is not there, how concerned are you about carrying places like an Arizona and a Georgia?
CORNELL BELCHER:
Well, I think part of the problem is that if Donald Trump isn't there, look, look at the base of the Republican Party. Look who's choosing these nominees. Like, you know, Herschel Walker was such a terrible candidate. The Republican primary voters picked him. You know, go out to Arizona where you think you had these terrible Trump candidates. The Republican primary voters chose them. So even if Trump doesn't go away, I still like the odds that they're going to continue to pick these Trump-like individuals --
SARA FAGEN:
Yeah, but Trump was showing up and doing events with them, and that's a big part of this.
CORNELL BELCHER:
Yes, but they're also carrying his water. Look, the same -- look, Masters and this sort of antisemitism, racist, you know, replacement theory crap that you get from Donald Trump you're getting from an awful lot of these Republican candidates. You are.
KRISTEN WELKER:
I do think what makes this moment feel a little bit different. It's way too soon to say that it is. You do have more Republicans who are circling the wagons, former administration officials saying they're prepared to face off against him. John Bolton, for example, this week saying in the wake of former President Trump saying he's going to rip up the Constitution, Bolton saying, "Look, we have to stop him. I'm prepared to get into the race to try to be one of those people who does it." And I think it's not just all of the different areas that we're talking about, the fact that he endorsed Herschel Walker, handpicked him and all of these candidates. It's also his messaging. The fact that he has depressed early voting, Chuck. And that was such a key part of why Senator Warnock held on to his Senate seat, and Republicans are really upset about that.
CHUCK TODD:
Garrett, you know, you know what we couldn't have done today? I couldn't put together a mash of Republican members of Congress talking about all the good things Donald Trump does bring to the party right now. And I'm curious what -- Who are his chief -- Does he have a group of Republicans that can basically buck him up in Congress for the next year?
GARRETT HAAKE:
Oh, absolutely. It's the House Republican Conference, who are all going to have to run potentially with him on the ballot in 2024. They --
CHUCK TODD:
Some of them want to run with him on the ballot --
GARRETT HAAKE:
Absolutely they do. And they want to run with him on border issues. They want to run with him on the perception of Washington corruption. Look, Trump has probably never been weaker, but he’s still -- Republicans are going to have to beat him twice if they're going to have him not be the nominee. You've got to beat him electorally in the primary, and you have to beat his ideology. Because if you leave a wounded Trump kind of alive on the battlefield after a primary season, he's not just going to go away --
CHUCK TODD:
5% of always-Trumpers. 5% makes it impossible for Republicans to win, right?
SARA FAGEN:
Oh, I don't think so. I mean, look. We've seen examples of Republicans like Governor Kemp standing up to him and winning, and winning in a primary against a well-known individual. So, I don’t -- I mean, look. He is very popular. He is probably 50% of the primary electorate. That is no small number.
GARRETT HAAKE:
More than enough.
CHUCK TODD:
Boy, that’s the --
SARA FAGEN:
But--
CHUCK TODD:
I mean, if it's that good, he's the nominee.
SARA FAGEN:
Yes, but we don't know how this plays out when there's ten candidates and the coalitions and the debate that occurs. I think he's beatable.
CHUCK TODD:
Alright, last second.
CORNELL BELCHER:
Mitt Romney, Alan Simpson, Jack Kemp, Jeb Bush, all those mainstream, main line Republicans, they're not walking back in that door because the primary voters aren't going to let them.
CHUCK TODD:
We'll end on that point. That's all we have for today. Thank you for watching. We'll be back next week because if it's Sunday, it's Meet the Press.