CHUCK TODD:
This Sunday: ballooning crisis.
PRES. JOE BIDEN:
If any object presents a threat to the safety and security of the American people, I will take it down.
CHUCK TODD:
President Biden says he doesn't want to damage relations with China after shooting down a Chinese spy balloon.
PRES. JOE BIDEN:
We're not looking for a new Cold War.
CHUCK TODD:
Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with China's top diplomat for the first time since Blinken canceled his trip to Beijing. Can the U.S. and China find a way to deflate the tension? I'll ask the secretary of state. Plus, critical moment.
VICE PRES. KAMALA HARRIS:
There is no doubt these are crimes against humanity.
CHUCK TODD:
The U.S. accuses Russia of crimes against humanity as the war approaches the one year mark.
GEN. MARK MILLEY:
I don't think the Ukrainians would just collapse or fall. I think they're gonna continue to fight.
CHUCK TODD:
Will the U.S. and its allies be able to defeat Putin without putting any NATO or U.S. boots on the ground? We’ll get a report from the frontlines. And primary fight.
FMR. GOV. NIKKI HALEY:
America is not past our prime. It's just that our politicians are past theirs.
CHUCK TODD:
Nikki Haley is the first Republican candidate to challenge Donald Trump, but she's not ready to actually criticize her former boss.
FMR. GOV. NIKKI HALEY:
The problem is the media wants everybody to either be 100% Trump or 100%. anti-Trump. I don't work that way.
CHUCK TODD:
Will Trump benefit from a growing field?
FMR. GOV. NIKKI HALEY:
May the best woman win.
CHUCK TODD:
I'll ask one potential candidate who's considering jumping in the race himself: former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan. Joining me for insight and analysis are NBC News Chief White House correspondent Peter Alexander, Amna Nawaz, co-anchor of PBS NewsHour, Tom Friedman, columnist for the New York Times and Danielle Pletka of the American Enterprise Institute. Welcome to Sunday. It's Meet the Press.
ANNOUNCER:
From NBC News in Washington, the longest running show in television history. This is Meet the Press with Chuck Todd.
CHUCK TODD:
Good Sunday morning. Fifteen days after the U.S. shot down a Chinese spy balloon and after a canceled diplomatic trip to Beijing, tensions with China have now escalated again to accusations that China may be supplying Russia or may supply Russia with lethal aid in its war against Ukraine. On Thursday, the President did try to turn the temperature down a bit with China, acknowledging that the three unidentified objects shot down over Lake Huron, Alaska and Canada were not tied to China, but were likely simply research blooms.
[BEGIN TAPE]
PRES. JOE BIDEN:
We seek competition, not conflict with China. We're not looking for a new Cold War. I expect to be speaking with President Xi. And I hope we have -- we are going to get to the bottom of this. But I make no apologies for taking down that balloon.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
China's top foreign policy official responded on Saturday in his visit to Munich. He told the gathering of world leaders that the U.S. response was a strategic misjudgment. He also called it absurd and hysterical. And he warned the Cold War mentality is back. Well, Secretary of State Tony Blinken met with Wang Yi late on Saturday for the first time since the U.S. shot down the spy balloon. I spoke with Secretary Blinken after the meeting. I'm going to bring you that interview in just a moment. The war in Ukraine is dominating the conversation at the Munich Security Conference more so than the balloon, if you will. The U.S. is word -- worried that China may view a lack of resolve on Ukraine as a potential sign of weakness as it eyes Taiwan reunification over the next several years. On Saturday, Vice President Harris used Munich as the backdrop to announce that the U.S. has formally determined that Russia is committing war crimes in Ukraine.
[BEGIN TAPE]
VICE PRES. KAMALA HARRIS:
Gruesome acts of murder, torture, rape and deportation. We have examined the evidence. We know the legal standards. And there is no doubt these are crimes against humanity.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
This week, President Biden will be returning to the region, Poland specifically, where he spoke just weeks after the Russian invasion nearly a year ago. And he's going to go there to renew the promise to quote “stand with Ukraine as long as it takes.“ But privately, administration officials have warned Ukrainian officials that there is a limit to the patience of the American public and the Western alliance. Ukraine is asking for dozens of F-16 fighter jets. And addressing the Munich Conference himself on Friday, Ukrainian president Zelenskyy warned of fatigue.
[BEGIN TAPE]
PRES. VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY:
We need to hurry up. We need the speed. Speed of our agreements, speed of our delivery to strengthen our sling. Speed of decisions to limit Russian potential.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel is in Kramatorsk, which is in Eastern Ukraine, where a new Russian offensive is underway. And, Richard, you and I were talking earlier. You said there’s we’re – now – Russia is now engaging in a second war, if you will, a brand new war plan, because the first one didn't work on this one year anniversary.
RICHARD ENGEL:
So one year on, Russia's starting over again, effectively. Putin tried to invade this country a year ago. Many said he was suffering from hubris, he wasn't listening to some advisors, or was being misadvised. He thought he could take Ukraine quickly, easily, topple the capital. Soldiers were bringing dress uniforms with them. They brought policing gear in order to manage the population. They didn't really think that the Ukrainian people would rise up and defend this country. It didn't work. And now, a year on, he's starting a totally new war, a new strategy, back to the basics. And instead of having his troops spread out all over the country, where they have supply chain issues, logistics issues, now it's primarily focused near the Russian border, out here in the east – a very slow, destructive campaign moving the front line, or trying to move the front line, forward into Ukrainian territory. But already – and we're about a week into this offensive – we're not seeing tremendous advances from the Russian side. So it seems like it's going to be a very, very slow campaign.
CHUCK TODD:
And, Richard, what does that mean for the Ukrainian strategy here in this war? Because look – if the Russian goal now is to essentially buy time, run out the clock, maybe run out the clock of support here in the United States or in Western Europe, how does Ukraine counter that?
RICHARD ENGEL:
Well, it's a problem because Russia's also depleting ammunition in this country. This – Ukraine is running out of air defenses. It's running out of tank rounds. So with this slow, destructive strategy that Putin is trying right now, he hopes that not only will Western support dry up over time, but that the Ukrainians eventually will lose the ability to maintain this fight and to sustain this fight. So in a sense, if he's willing to lose a lot of troops – and by many accounts Russia's losing more troops now than at any stage since this conflict began – if Russia’s willing to lose that many troops over time, the Ukrainians will be dangerously low on both anti-aircraft and regular munitions.
CHUCK TODD:
Richard Engel getting us started on the ground force in Eastern Ukraine. Richard, thank you. Turning now to my interview with Secretary of State Tony Blinken. I spoke with Secretary Blinken on Saturday evening, directly after his meeting with China's top diplomat, and I asked him about the growing tensions between the two countries.
CHUCK TODD:
I know you just got out of a meeting that in diplomatic terms is called on the margins with your counterpart, Wang Yi of China. I have read the readout we have stated about what you said to him, I guess what I’m more concerned about is what did he say to you? Number one, did it begin with an apology for the balloon?
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:
Chuck, I don’t want to characterize what, what he said. I don’t think that would be appropriate. Although I can tell you, no, there was no apology. But what I can also tell you is this was an opportunity to speak very clearly and very directly about the fact that China sent a surveillance balloon over our territory, violating our sovereignty, violating international law. And, I told him quite simply that that was unacceptable and can never happen again. We're, of course, not the only ones on the receiving end of these surveillance balloons. More than forty countries have had these balloons fly over them in recent years, and that’s been exposed to the world. I also had an opportunity, because we're here in Munich, as you know, focused primarily on Russia’s ongoing aggression against --
CHUCK TODD:
Right.
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:
-- Ukraine, to share our very real concerns about China’s support for Russia in that, in that war. And, what we’ve seen in -- over the past years, is of course some political and rhetorical support, even some non-lethal support, but we are very concerned that China’s considering providing lethal support to Russia in its aggression against Ukraine, and I made clear that that would have serious consequences in our relationship, as well something President Biden has shared directly with President Xi on several occasions. Finally, I underscored the importance of having direct lines of communication. The importance of continuing to engage in diplomacy between our countries. I think this is something that the world expects of us. They expect us to manage this relationship responsibly, and so it was important that we had that opportunity this evening here in Munich.
CHUCK TODD:
I want to start with what I think is the newer piece of information that you're sharing, and I know that we've been reporting separately, this concern that China is considering leth – potential lethal aid in this war to Russia. What evidence can you share with us that indicates your concern that they're going to escalate their help to Russia? As you said, they've been helping them rhetorically. They've been helping them maybe by buying cheap oil. But what is the other evidence that you have here that they're thinking about doing more?
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:
Well, Chuck, China's having -- trying to have it both ways. Publicly, they present themselves as a country striving for, for peace in Ukraine. But privately, as I said, we've seen already over these past months the provision of nonlethal assistance that does go directly to aiding and abetting Russia's war effort. And some further information that we are sharing today and that I think will be out there soon that indicates that they are strongly considering providing lethal assistance to Russia. To the best of our knowledge, they haven't --
CHUCK TODD:
What form --
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:
-- crossed that line yet.
CHUCK TODD:
In what form is that?
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:
But, as we're sharing --
CHUCK TODD:
Yeah, in what form?
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:
Chuck, I can’t -- Chuck, I don't want to get into the details in this, in this moment. But there are various kinds of lethal assistance that they are at least contemplating providing, to include weapons.
CHUCK TODD:
What, what else would you describe as lethal assistance that wasn't weapons?
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:
Well, again, I'll let, I’ll let the information that we have and that we're sharing speak for itself. But the main concern is material support to Russia's war effort that would have a lethal effect.
CHUCK TODD:
The material support, I understand you want to let it speak for itself. Can you give me a little bit more here? I mean, that's a huge charge. I mean, that is an escalate -- we're at another level of escalation here if our two biggest rivals are now in cahoots in a war essentially against the west.
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:
Chuck, what I want to stress is this: We see China considering this; we have not seen them cross that line. So I think it's important that we make clear, as I did this evening in my meeting with Wang Yi, that this is something that is of deep concern to us. And I made clear the importance of not crossing that line, and the fact that it would have serious consequences in our own relationship, something that we do not need on top of the balloon incident that China's engaged in.
CHUCK TODD:
What kind of consequences are you talking about? What did you share with him?
SECRETARY ANTONY BLINKEN:
Look, I'm not going to get -- I’m not going to get into that. But I can, again, tell you that this is something that President Biden has raised directly with President Xi.
CHUCK TODD:
And if you -- if he's raised it directly with President Xi, so this is not new, this warning here, it looks like so far they've not heeded the warnings?
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:
No, again, this is something that President Biden has shared with President Xi almost going back to day one of the Russian aggression against Ukraine. They spoke, I think, two or three weeks into the Russian aggression, back last March. And at that time, in that very first conversation after the Russian aggression, President Biden said to him, "It's going to be very important going forward that you not provide any direct military support to Russia for this war in Ukraine,” as well as engaging in any systematic efforts to evade the sanctions that we've imposed on individuals and companies who are aiding the war effort in Ukraine by Russia. So this is something that we've been concerned about from day one because you remember, Chuck, that just before the Russian aggression, President Xi and President Putin got together and talked about a partnership with no limits. In that context, one of the concerns we had was "no limits" might include providing lethal support to Russia in the war. So this is something we've been watching from day one, and the reason that we're sharing further information now is we are concerned that this is something that China was not doing for many, many months but may be considering doing now.
CHUCK TODD:
And have we shared all this evidence with our allies?
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:
We are in the process of doing that.
CHUCK TODD:
Let me move a little bit more to the balloon incident itself. The director of national intelligence, Avril Haines, had this to say about the balloon earlier this week when asked, "How should we think about this? Anything you can say about it?" And she sort of started off, she goes, "You know, I know it's crazy. It's really like an episode of ‘Veep,’ you know, on some level." And clearly the other three objects -- is it fair to say that, in hindsight, we overreacted on the shoot-down of the other three objects?
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:
No, Chuck. I think, and the president spoke to this himself just, just the other day, with regard to the surveillance balloon from China itself, as you know, we spotted it. We took action to protect sensitive information on the ground that it was attempting to surveil. We got information from the balloon itself as it traversed the United States. And when it was safe to do so, in terms of not posing a danger to people on the ground, we shot it down. And now we're in the process of recovering what remains of the balloon to learn more about the technology that it had on board. What happened after that was we recalibrated our radars, because this balloon program, based on information we have now, has been going on for some time. In years past, we weren't necessarily looking at the, the space in which this was happening. We recalibrated the radars, and, as a result, we saw more things that we weren't seeing in the past. And among those things were these three objects that were shot down that, unlike the Chinese surveillance balloon, were flying lower and posed a threat to commercial aviation. And so one of the reasons, the main reason, that the president ordered that action be taken was to make sure that there was no threat to commercial aviation. Now, I think one of the things that comes out of this more broadly is this has been in many ways unregulated air space and subspace. And we need to do much more, I think, to make sure that we and countries around the world have a better idea of what's up, when, and where in order to make sure that we can proceed safely, securely, and not have objects that pose a threat to our people or to our country. But at the same time, making sure that things that are there and proceeding with peaceful purpose can do so as long as they don't pose a threat to aviation.
CHUCK TODD:
Do we still believe that the balloon – the surveillance balloon over the continental United States was an intentional act or do you believe that part of it was an accident?
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:
Well, Chuck, what I can tell you is this. What is clear is that, once the balloon was over the United States and flying basically west to east, it attempted to surveil very sensitive military sites. In some cases, it loitered or returned to them as it progressed east. So there's no doubt in our minds at all that, A) this was a surveillance balloon, and, B) it was attempting to engage in active surveillance.
CHUCK TODD:
I want to go back to your readout with your Chinese counterpart. The other thing you said in there is you reemphasized the issue that we don't want to have a cold war with China. But what else do you describe our relationship with them? We're expanding our military presence in Guam. We're expanding our military presence in the Philippines. We're expanding our military presence in Australia. We're helping Japan essentially change its national security posture. We continue to arm Taiwan and send weapons there. If it's not a cold war, what is it?
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:
Chuck, this is obviously among the most consequential but also complex relationships that we have, and probably the same could be said for many other countries around the world. And of course we're in a vigorous competition with China, and that's something we're not at all shy about. We intend to compete very vigorously, and we've taken important steps over the last couple of years to invest in ourselves so that we compete effectively. But also to align with allies and partners around the world so that we have a shared approach to some of the challenges that China poses. And as we're doing that, we have a strong interest in trying to manage the relationship responsibly, and to make sure, to the best of our ability, that competition doesn't veer into conflict or into cold war. I don't think that's in our interest. And also, it's important to note that there are some very big issues out there that are affecting all of our citizens and affecting people around the world where, if we can, it would be in our interest to find ways to cooperate on climate, on global health, on the macroeconomic situation around the world. And we have a responsibility to at least try to do that. So that's why I say you can't reduce this to a bumper sticker or to a label. It's complicated, it's consequential and we need to manage it responsibly.
CHUCK TODD:
Yeah, complicated sounds like a pretty good description. It's a complicated relationship, which I think people on social media could understand. I want to also quickly ask, did you reschedule your meeting – reschedule your visit to Beijing? Did this meeting do that? Or does President Biden need to speak with President Xi first?
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:
No, we didn't talk about that tonight. We really focused on the balloon incident. We focused on some other areas of concern that we have and, as I noted, the main one which is the concerns about Chinese support for Russia in its war of aggression against Ukraine. We also talked about the most recent North Korean missile launch and our view that China, given the relationship it has with North Korea, should try to use its influence to curb these kind of actions coming from North Korea.
CHUCK TODD:
I know we don't have a lot of time and I obviously had a ton of questions on the war in Ukraine. But let me ask this one, which is, I had Robert Gates on here a couple weeks ago, and he thought the only real red line for Putin was Crimea. Are we ready – if President Zelenskyy wants to retake Crimea, are we going to be there to support him on that – is that something we've told him, "Why don't you focus on everything else first?"
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:
Chuck, at every step along the way, we've said that fundamentally these questions about Ukraine, about its future, belong to the Ukrainians. These are their decisions. And we're determined to support them in their efforts to uphold their territorial integrity, their independence, their sovereignty. But I don't want to speculate about the future. What I can tell you is this: It's really important, whatever happens, in terms of our own interests, that there be a just and durable peace. And by that, I mean this. "Just" because if we have a peace that somehow ratifies the seizure of land by force, that risks opening a Pandora's box around the world where other would-be aggressors conclude they can do what Russia did and get away with it. "Durable" in that what we don't want in terms of our interests and certainly in terms of Ukraine is to arrive at a place where we leave things so that it's likely that Russia simply repeats the exercise a year, two years, five years later. So broadly, I think that's what we're aiming at and certainly what Ukraine is aiming at. But in terms of the specific contours of where we can achieve peace, these are fundamentally Ukraine's decisions.
CHUCK TODD:
And finally, SpaceX, which is owned by Elon Musk, has been providing Starlink capabilities to help Ukraine. But apparently, they've restricted some access where Ukraine can't use it for some military purposes. Given that SpaceX is a U.S. military contractor in some things, have we asked Elon Musk to change his policy there and essentially be on the side of Ukraine? Not to quote unquote be "neutral" here?
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:
Well, I can't share any conversations we've had other than to say we've had conversations.
CHUCK TODD:
Well, I think that answer tells us something to read between the lines on that. Anyway, Secretary Antony Blinken, really appreciate you coming on and sharing the administration's perspective. Good luck and I hope you get some rest.
SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:
Thanks a lot, Chuck. Great to be with you. Thank you.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. The panel is here: NBC News Chief White House Correspondent Peter Alexander, also co-anchor of Weekend Today, Amna Nawaz, the co-anchor for PBS NewsHour, New York Times columnist Tom Friedman, and Danielle Pletka, the senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. I have a really good group here to talk China and Ukraine. Tom, let me start with you. This feels like we are at a moment we have never been with, with China. Are we?
THOMAS FRIEDMAN:
I think so, Chuck. Because if you go back to the start of the war, President Biden spoke with President Xi and Jake Sullivan spoke with his Chinese counterparts. They made one major point: "You will not intervene militarily in this war on Russia's side. And if you do, it will affect your two largest export markets, the European Union and the United States of America." The fact that a year later China is considering that, according to the administration, I find harrowing. Because that really--
CHUCK TODD:
Do you find it believable? Why would China do this?
THOMAS FRIEDMAN:
Well, it's interesting. I think China, first of all, they would like the war prolonged because it keeps us tied down and we're burning through all our weaponry and all our military stocks. I think also, they like a weak Russia that's forced to be economically dependent on them but they don't want a collapsed Russia. That's a very bad signal for Taiwan, that the West could take Russia down. So I think the Chinese might be concerned about that. But I think you can't exaggerate how important it would be if China did that. Then this becomes a true world war, it affects every global market, and we're in a completely new world.
CHUCK TODD:
What would be our consequence to them? He wouldn't say what the consequences are. Danielle, what should they be if China intervenes--
DANIELLE PLETKA:
So we still have an extraordinarily robust trading relationship with China. They are unbelievably dependent on exports both to the United States and to the European Union. So they would be testing our resolve. Right now we limit certain things that are coming from China. We are trying very casually to decouple our economy from the Chinese economy, but we haven't done it in any effective way. So they would be testing our willingness to take a lot of pain in order to punish them. It's a very weird call.
CHUCK TODD:
I'm trying to figure out where we are here, Peter, because you had this interview with the president after he did the speech that was trying to tone things down. And in some ways, it matched the rhetoric we heard from-- I want to play something from Avril Haines. I referenced it in the interview, but I want to play this comment from Avril Haines, how she talked about the balloon incident late last week at an interview at Columbia University. Take a listen.
[BEGIN TAPE]
INTERVIEWER:
How should we think about this? Whatever you can say about the balloon, please.
AVRIL HAINES:
I know, it's so crazy. It's really like in an episode of Veep, you know, on some level, like, I’m just, like….
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
So here's our director of national intelligence sort of almost, like, dismissive of how things went. The president's trying to ratchet things up, and then all of a sudden, 48 hours later we're on the brink of a world war.
PETER ALEXANDER:
Well, that's what's most striking to me. The conversation I had with the president on Thursday, he said, "I think the last thing Xi wants is to fundamentally rip up the relationship with the United States and with me." He was saying that these conversations need to continue, direct communication is critical. And then you hear what appears to be a very different strategy from Antony Blinken speaking to you just moments ago, where he effectively, you know, is dialing things up, it appears. It would appear that the relationship is escalating. And the point that he wouldn't get to, that you try to pin him down on, is what is that new evidence that China is trying to provide lethal aid to Russia right now? Notably he won't say it, because you remember when this war began in Ukraine the U.S., Antony Blinken was very quick to say that there was now declassified information showing that Russia was going to invade. They were right on. So why not call them out with the evidence as it exists here? No one could identify what that evidence is. They just said to me, "For China, nothing is off the table," is their view.
CHUCK TODD:
Amna, it does feel like there is a bit of – do they want to dial things down or not?
AMNA NAWAZ:
I mean, to Peter's point, I want to see what that intelligence is. I want to know what the evidence is to back up those claims. Because Secretary Blinken was not the only one to make that assessment. We had Vice President Harris in her speech at Munich mimicking that same language, warning China not to provide that lethal aid.So I'm curious what's driving that more overt public stance right now. But we know that the U.S. officials have been concerned about ongoing tacit and some tactical support China's been providing to Russia since the beginning of the war. To Tom's point, they made that war early, and very clear, and publicly. A lot of that has been economic until now. We know in the last year China's economic trade with Russia has only deepened. And that means imports have increased, what, some 40% from Russia, exports over some 10%. Even though they imported less crude oil overall, China last year, they imported more from Russia to the tune of some $60 billion. I mean, that undermines the Western effort as well to mitigate their oil revenues and also further fuels the war in Ukraine.
CHUCK TODD:
Let me shift the conversation to the larger question, Tom, which is, is our domestic politics actually going to ratchet up tensions a little bit here with China? Look, you've been chronicling the rise of China, arguably, for all of us to watch for 30 years, in some way. Did we get it wrong?
THOMAS FRIEDMAN:
Did we get the--
CHUCK TODD:
The entire of what we were trying to do with China, thinking economic security for China will bring security to the globe.
THOMAS FRIEDMAN:
You know, I think that chapter is not finally written, Chuck. What we've seen in China since 1979 to today is originally China came out and said, "We are going to open ourselves to the world, we're going to engage with the world, and we're not going to be a military threat to the world.” You know? And that kind of worked for them. They brought 800 million people out of poverty faster than anytime in world history, and we had no great power war during that period. That starts to change, you know, 2006, 2010, first under Hu and then under Xi. Suddenly you get a much more aggressive China in the South Asian Sea, you get a China that's much more difficult at home, takes over Hong Kong, does these things. And I would say to them, "How is that working for you? You grew at 3% last year, like half your – You've triggered now a global ban, basically, on semiconductors, which are the oil of the 21st century. China's basically saying, "Oh, we'll deal with it. We'll push back our own." "Really?" I say. That's like telling me the Chinese National Basketball Team is going to play the global superstars in basketball on semiconductors forever. So, I really wonder where they're going with this.
CHUCK TODD:
All right. I'm going to leave the conversation there. Up next, Nikki Haley was the first Republican to take on Donald Trump this week. Will Trump benefit from a growing field? Former Governor of Maryland Larry Hogan, who's mulling his own bid, joins me next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. Nikki Haley formally launched her presidential bid on Wednesday in South Carolina, making only one reference to her former boss, Donald Trump, but saying not so subtly, "It's time for the party to move on."
[BEGIN TAPE]
FMR. GOV. NIKKI HALEY:
I have a particular message for my fellow Republicans: We've lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections. Well, that ends today.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
Former President Trump wasted no time in attacking Haley, trying to tie her to Hillary Clinton and Paul Ryan. Early polling shows the Republican race starts with two clear front-runners, Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Trump leads in one recent poll, 46 to 23 in a wide field. But when it narrows down to just two candidates, Trump and DeSantis, Trump's lead narrows dramatically. So how large will the 2024 Republican field be? It all depends on what potential candidates like my guest right now, former Republican governor of Maryland, Larry Hogan, on what he does. Governor Hogan, welcome back to Meet the Press.
FMR. GOV. LARRY HOGAN:
Good morning.
CHUCK TODD:
So usually, I reserve these questions for the end, but I'll ask it up front here. Have you made a decision?
FMR. GOV. LARRY HOGAN:
I haven't. Look, I said I'm going to take a pretty serious look at this. And I'm traveling around the country, just trying to get a feel for what Republican voters want, what Americans are looking for. And we're going to make a decision in a relatively short period of time.
CHUCK TODD:
It’s – I'm interested on the – what Republican voters want. Right now, if you watch the other – your potential rivals, it does seem there's only one issue that seems to be unifying of the base and that's sort of these culture wars in education. Here's a sampling.
[START TAPE]
GOV. RON DESANTIS:
Go read books like Gender Queer and see what's in there. It's inappropriate. So we've armed parents the ability to object to that and to make sure that they're having education and not indoctrination.
FMR. VICE PRES. MIKE PENCE:
Across the country, parents' rights are being trampled by a politically correct nanny state that's ruining our schools and telling parents that they have no role in their children's most important decisions.
FMR. GOV. NIKKI HALEY:
There was all this talk about the Florida bill, the Don't Say Gay Bill. Basically what it said was that you shouldn't be able to talk about gender before third grade. I'm sorry, I don't think that goes far enough.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
My question to you is not whether this is a legitimate issue to be talking about; it's about whether this is the main issue or not. Do you view this as the main issue for 2024?
FMR. GOV. LARRY HOGAN:
No. I think it's an important issue. And I do hear it. And people are concerned about this as I travel around the country because, you know, most people just don't think we should be talking about, you know, things like sex to young kids. And the parents want to be more involved in the decisions about what their kids are being taught. However, you know, I think some of this rhetoric is, you know, demanding that things be done a certain way, or that you can't say this, or you can't say that. We've got to be really careful about --
CHUCK TODD:
I know. Does it feel like you're going the other way?
FMR. GOV. LARRY HOGAN:
Yeah.
CHUCK TODD:
Like, it's sort of like you’re – on one hand, you have Governor DeSantis claiming, "Hey., I don't want all of this, but I'm going to tell you exactly what you can say and I'm going to tell you what you to can't say."
FMR. GOV. LARRY HOGAN:
Well, I'm a small government, you know, common-sense conservative. And to me, it sounds like big government and authoritarian. "You have to agree with me. And I'm going to tell you what you can and can't do." So, but it's an issue. It's not the most important issue. I think more people are concerned about the economy, inflation. They're concerned about crime. But education's one of the things that we've got to talk about.
CHUCK TODD:
I guess the question, the larger question I have for you, and I feel like you really are sort of an old-school Reagan Republican, there were three legs to the stool; strong on national security, low government, low taxes, right? Small government, low taxes, and the culture issues. And it seems right now it's only the culture issues that unites the party. But the party's actually divided on the other two issues. Do you agree with that?
FMR. GOV. LARRY HOGAN:
Well, I agree. And that’s – you know, I've been talking about the important issues for a long time. And, yeah, I was a Republican governor in the bluest state in America and got things done working across the aisle with Democrats. I can tell you, it's not what everyone's talking about. But I think some people are making the calculation that base primary voters in the Trump lane, that's what they want to hear about. And so a lot of candidates are focusing on that. But it’s – you can't dismiss it, but I don't think it should be the only thing we're talking about.
CHUCK TODD:
If you do run, the RNC is trying to get people to pledge – if they want to participate in their debates, their sanctioned debates, you have to pledge to support the nominee no matter who it is. You had an interesting exchange with Hugh Hewitt. And I don't know where you stand on this. Where do you stand on this?
FMR. GOV. LARRY HOGAN:
Well, I think it's kind of silly because it's not going to happen. We already know President Trump has said numerous times he refuses to --
CHUCK TODD:
So if he refuses, why should you, right?
FMR. GOV. LARRY HOGAN:
Well, I mean, if they say you're not going to be on the debate stage if you won't commit to support the nominee, then President Trump won't be on the debate stage, and I don't think anybody believes that that's going to happen. But, look, I think – you know, I'm a lifelong Republican who wants to support the nominee of the party, whoever that is. However, you know, I've said before I didn't support Trump, I wouldn't support Trump. You know, I’d put the country ahead of party and not put somebody in that is not, should not be the president.
CHUCK TODD:
If you thought your candidacy was going to contribute to inadvertently helping Donald Trump, would that be a reason not to run?
FMR. GOV. LARRY HOGAN:
That would be a pretty good reason to consider not running, absolutely. I mean, I care much more – I don't care that much about my future in the Republican Party; I care about making sure we have a future for the Republican Party. And if we can stop Donald Trump and elect a great Republican, common-sense conservative leader, then certainly that would be a factor.
CHUCK TODD:
I'm curious, in a court filing this week, Dominion Voting released a lot of internal communications inside of Fox News. However people want to classify Fox News, I'm going to use the description of “conservative town square.” It is the town square for conservatives. Are you concerned that we now have evidence that essentially the moderators of this town square refused to tell the truth to their viewers because they were afraid of offending them?
FMR. GOV. LARRY HOGAN:
Look, I am concerned about it. And I don't know all the details of it. We're just seeing some of these facts from forward with this Dominion case. But I think – I've been concerned for a long time, as I talked to conservative leaders who agreed with what I was saying – you know, I was pretty out there, you know, pretty direct, answering some of these questions about January 6th, about that the election wasn't stolen – and many of them would say it privately, but then they would go out and say almost the complete opposite. And it sounds like that's what some of the hosts on Fox News did.
CHUCK TODD:
And now – and look what it’s –
FMR. GOV. LARRY HOGAN:
And I'm hoping that now, more people are starting to, yeah, say exactly what they believe.
CHUCK TODD:
But, Governor, I mean, you look at it. This Michigan Republican Party just elected an election denier as party chair, the Kansas Republican Party. It feels like the conservative town square is lying to the base and this is what happens.
FMR. GOV. LARRY HOGAN:
Well, there's no question there's a lot of misinformation out there. And I am concerned about some of the parties, and people are taking over that are believing conspiracy theories. And I think we've got to get back to a bigger tent party that can appeal to more people, otherwise we're going to keep losing elections.
CHUCK TODD:
What is your timeline? Is it spring? Is it the end of spring? Is it beginning of summer?
FMR. GOV. LARRY HOGAN:
You know, I think it’s – sometime this spring, I think, is when you would have to really get ramped up. I mean, we started a federal PAC, you know, at the end of the year. We've been, you know, working around the country now for a couple of years. But I think you've got to start raising the hard dollars and be really in the race, committed in the next couple of months.
CHUCK TODD:
Do you think the fact that you were successful in a blue state makes it actually harder for you to get a Republican nomination?
FMR. GOV. LARRY HOGAN:
You know, I've got strong support among Republicans, Democrats and Independents. And I
left, you know, as one of the most successful governors in America. And I'm the only governor --
CHUCK TODD:
But Maryland Independents and Democrats don't vote in a Republican primary for president in Iowa.
FMR. GOV. LARRY HOGAN:
Yeah. Well, I mean, I got the same vote Trump did in the Republican primary and ran 45 points ahead of him in the general.
CHUCK TODD:
Well, there you go. Larry Hogan, good to see you. Thanks for coming in.
FMR. GOV. LARRY HOGAN:
Thanks, Chuck.
CHUCK TODD:
And thanks for your perspective. When we come back, artificial intelligence is creating a lot of anxiety about its powers. We're going to download the data and let you decide how worried you should be.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. Data Download time. Technology is constantly transforming our lives. It garners both excitement and skepticism, and the recent boom in artificial intelligence is now no exception. So let's start with why we've been hearing so much about AI lately. It's due to one thing: the arrival of something called ChatGPT, launched late last year. If you've logged on to it, you're not alone. 100 million monthly users already, making it the fastest-growing consumer application in history. Now, if you're thinking this is the first time AI's been in your life, you're wrong, and most people don't realize it. Just 30% recently told a Pew survey – correctly were able to identify places where AI is a part of their lives. Your fitness tracker, that's AI powered. The music recommendations you get on your various playlists, guess what? AI powered. Spam filters. You get it. Product recommendations. It's already a big part of our lives. And guess what? This time, unlike social media — which we are almost universally excited about — with AI, not so much. We're a bit more concerned than excited, as you can see here. And perhaps it has to do with the word "artificial." Are we ever excited about anything that starts with the word "artificial?l" This week, Senator John Fetterman's disclosure that he is undergoing treatment for clinical depression signaled a new openness around mental health issues in our country. Back in 1972, Missouri Senator Thomas Eagleton was removed as George McGovern's running mate after he revealed he had been treated for depression. Here's how Senator McGovern's wife Eleanor described the moment on our broadcast 51 years ago.
[START TAPE]
ELEANOR MCGOVERN:
I remember that first morning when Senator and Mrs. Eagleton were in South Dakota with us, how our hearts and our minds and all of us just reached out to this man, who was going through such a traumatic experience in revealing to the American public his history of trouble. This made me so furious. And people say, "Well, your husband, your husband dumped Senator Eagleton. There was no possible way for him to do that." But it was a story of such human drama that no one who was there – who was not there – could even be in a position to judge my husband or Senator Eagleton. But I do say that they both made the decision not for themselves, not for Senator McGovern – he knew it would hurt. Not for Tom Eagleton, but for the American people, for all of you out there.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
In some ways, we've come a long way on talking about mental health. The question is: Have we come far enough? When we come back, Nikki Haley may have more than just Donald Trump to contend with to get the nomination. Florida governor Ron DeSantis is already the co-frontrunner, even before he's announced.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. Well, we had a presidential launch this week, Amna. And what I thought was interesting about it is that Nikki Haley got major candidate treatment.
AMNA NAWAZ:
Yes.
CHUCK TODD:
And I think that's a big deal. Now, the one thing that surprised me a little bit is her decision not to take on Trump.
AMNA NAWAZ:
Well, she got that treatment because she’s the first to announce, she’s the first to challenge former President Trump. Let's be clear about that. And that's a longer runway for people to kind of take a look at her. But Nikki Haley always had that complicated relationship with Donald Trump, right, where she was anti-Trump, and then she worked with him. And now, since she's left and even since she's launched her election campaign, she's not anti-Trump. She is occupying an entirely different lane altogether, because that culture warrior super-highway, that is full. They've got two trucks — the DeSantis truck and the Trump truck — rolling down that. She's in a parallel lane. She's sort of anti-Trump, without saying so, and not into the culture warrior stuff but also really not differentiating herself when it comes to policy. There's a lane there. There's enough Republicans who say in recent polls — more than half of them have said they don't want to vote for former President Trump. That's who she's trying to appeal to.
CHUCK TODD:
You know, Peter, the race has been heating up. I want to put up a map. Just in the next week, we're going to have a lot of presidential candidates around the country here doing some fundraising stuff. Ron DeSantis goes to Chicago, the suburbs of Chicago, tomorrow to talk to a law enforcement group but probably also to talk to some donors. I mean, things are starting to heat up. Tim Scott headed to Iowa as well.
PETER ALEXANDER:
Two South Carolinians, right? I actually think that Nikki Haley leaned more into the culture war stuff than I thought she would in the course of the opening week. She didn't distinguish herself from Donald Trump. That's what she's going to need to do as a challenge. But speaking to some of her allies and having been on the trail in recent weeks, I'll tell you what a grassroots leader in South Carolina said. And this is why perhaps they think she doesn't have to go after Trump specifically, is that the Republicans in her state, they said like 90% of what Donald Trump did but hated 90% of what Donald Trump said. So perhaps it's safe not to change anything in terms of policy — and she didn't show any contrast when she spoke to Sean Hannity this week — but just to be a different representative of the party.
CHUCK TODD:
And I thought it was interesting that Governor Hogan admitted that if he thought his candidacy would contribute to the nomination of Donald Trump, that it would be a reason not to run.
DANIELLE PLETKA:
Yeah, that was a very gentlemanly thing to say. You don't see a lot of that --
CHUCK TODD:
No.
DANIELLE PLETKA:
-- in politics. On the other hand, gentlemen tend not to finish first in politics. I think what's interesting about all of this is that you're going to see a battle for the soul of the Republican Party in this primary, at least I really hope so.
CHUCK TODD:
Will you?
DANIELLE PLETKA:
Well, so you know this is – you know – there’s a reason I'm sitting here, I'm a foreign policy nerd, right?
CHUCK TODD:
Right.
DANIELLE PLETKA:
We were talking about foreign policy. There actually is a post-Trump split in the party now with the isolationists. You know, a lot of the Republicans, the sort of Tucker Carlson wing of the party, J.D. Vance, those guys, who are not interested in supporting Ukraine, who are not interested in us having a stronger military, who want to cut defense spending. Nikki Haley is of the old Reagan school on that. So she's solid on the culture stuff. She's solid on the society. She's good on the economics. But she's also good on foreign policy. I want to see that fight happen inside the party.
CHUCK TODD:
I guess the question, Tom, is: Did the fight happen in '16 and Trump won?
THOMAS FRIEDMAN:
Yeah. I mean, to some extent. One of the things that, just in reading up about Nikki Haley, that really struck me, Chuck -- and, like Dani, I'm not a domestic policy guy--
CHUCK TODD:
No, you guys are -- absolutely.
THOMAS FRIEDMAN:
Yeah. But what really struck me is that, you know, she was against Trump originally. In fact, she said, "We shouldn't have a president who couldn't denounce the KKK." Then she was for Trump and served in his administration. Then after January 6th, she was against Trump. Then she was for Trump as she thought of running again. Then she was kind of against Trump in this coming-out interview. She described herself as "tough as nails," but in her opening bid, Dan Balz pointed this out in the Washington Post today she decried the 1619 Project in the New York Times being over the top on racism. She talked about the killing in Charleston of – in a Black church. She didn't mention that she was the one who took the Confederate flag down the South Carolina capital --
PETER ALEXANDER:
Nor in the video that she posted as well. That was really striking to a lot of us --
THOMAS FRIEDMAN:
That doesn't strike me as tough as nails.
PETER ALEXANDER:
You know, to my day job at the White House right now, what's striking to me is there is a lot of questions about Joe Biden as we talk about 2024 now. I was in North Carolina a few weeks ago. Even Democrats who loved what the party has done, they love what Joe Biden has done, every one of them brought up his age unsolicited, the concern about his age right now. He checked off a couple key boxes in recent weeks. He had a good physical. His doctor says he's vigorous and healthy. At the State of the Union, Democrats say he performed well as well. But two-thirds to our recent poll, two-thirds of Americans have said they have reservations or were very uncomfortable with him running again right now. We are told by those close to the president that it's likely that he would follow the Obama model in terms of an announcement. Obama waited 13 months after the announcement to start campaigning. That would – you know, he has the benefits of incumbency. He could make an announcement in April and wait until next year to get on the trail.
CHUCK TODD:
Amna, the strangest thing about the Democratic side is that the rank-and-file voters clearly would like to see some other candidates. But they – Democrats – Washington – no. I mean, the Democratic elite is, like, quashing it. It's fascinating.
AMNA NAWAZ:
Well, this is the gap, right, between what we're seeing among the electorate and where the candidates are showing up. The Republican field will shake itself out. But, yes, you're right. Even among Democratic voters, they have reservations about supporting Mr. Biden for another campaign. But this generational issue is one we're going to see again and again. We heard it from Nikki Haley. We heard it from Tim Scott. We heard it from Governor Huckabee Sanders, also in her response to the State of the Union Address. These are Republicans saying, "Let's move on. New generation of leadership." We'll see.
CHUCK TODD:
It is sitting there for them, the turn-the-page argument. Worked for Barack Obama. We'll see if it works for one of these Republicans. Before we go, on this week's Chuck ToddCast, guess what we talked about? Nikki Haley's campaign launch. Spoke with – I also though, spoke with a weather balloon manufacturer. Wait until you find out how much stuff is in the air all the time. And after the broadcast, we're going to get more from Tom Friedman. Subscribe to the Chuck ToddCast by scanning the QR code on your screen right now or going to NBCNews.com/ChuckToddCast. That's all for today. Thanks for watching. We'll be back next week because if it's Sunday, it's Meet the Press.