CHUCK TODD:
This Sunday: The heat is on.
MAN:
Terribly hot. I mean, I can’t handle it sometimes.
CHUCK TODD:
Record high triple-digit temperatures across the country ...
MAN:
It’s sweltering, and what’s the worst is there’s no air moving.
CHUCK TODD:
… and across the globe. This as President Biden's ambitious climate agenda faces an uphill battle in Congress.
PRES. JOE BIDEN:
As president, I’ll use my executive powers to combat climate – the climate crisis in the absence of congressional action.
CHUCK TODD:
This morning, my interview with former Vice President Al Gore on the inconvenient truth about global warming and what needs to be done now. Plus: 187 minutes.
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
I don’t want to say the election is over.
CHUCK TODD:
The January 6th committee on how former President Trump refused to help quell the violence at the Capitol …
REP. ADAM KINZINGER:
President Trump did not fail to act during the 187 minutes between leaving the Ellipse and telling the mob to go home. He chose not to act.
CHUCK TODD:
… even as Secret Service agents scrambled to get Vice President Pence out of danger.
SECRET SERVICE AGENT:
If we’re moving, we need to move now.
CHUCK TODD:
And testimony that Mr. Trump took care to stay on the side of the mob.
SARAH MATTHEWS:
The president did not want to include any sort of mention of peace in that tweet.
CHUCK TODD:
This morning, I'll talk to committee member Elaine Luria about where the investigation goes now. Also the economy.
SEC. JANET YELLEN:
We’re taking our own steps that we believe will be supportive in the short-term to get inflation down.
CHUCK TODD:
I'll interview Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on inflation, economic pessimism and whether we should expect a recession. Joining me for insight and analysis are: Yamiche Alcindor, moderator of Washington Week on PBS, Jake Sherman, co-founder of Punchbowl News, María Teresa Kumar, president of Voto Latino and Stephen Hayes, editor of The Dispatch. Welcome to Sunday. It's Meet the Press.
ANNOUNCER:
From NBC News in Washington, the longest-running show in television history. This is Meet the Press with Chuck Todd.
CHUCK TODD:
Good Sunday morning. And if you're waking up to another hot, sweaty day, you're not alone. Over the past seven days, there have been 359 daily high temperature records set across this country. And across the Atlantic, Europe is burning up as well. More than 1,700 people died in Portugal and Spain alone in this current heat wave that they’re experiencing. In his 2006 documentary film "An Inconvenient Truth,” former Vice President Al Gore warned that we were going to experience rising temperatures, melting glaciers, drying lakes, more wildfires and stronger storms over the next 20 or 30 years. Well guess what? In the 16 years since that film debuted we've seen rising temperatures, melting glaciers, drying lakes, more wildfires in more states in this country and, yes, stronger storms. We’ve experienced a lot of that in the last 10 days alone. So despite all of the evidence staring us in the face like a hot sun, the United States remains a reluctant soldier in the fight against global warming. Just this month, Democrat Joe Manchin punted again on what was left of President Biden's climate bill, which was already opposed by all 50 Senate Republicans. In his documentary, way back in 2006, Mr. Gore said this:
[START TAPE]
FMR. VICE PRES. AL GORE:
Are we as Americans capable of doing great things even though they are difficult? Are we capable of rising above ourselves and above history? Well, the record indicates that we do have that capacity.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
And joining me now is Al Gore. Mr. Vice President, welcome back to Meet the Press.
FMR. VICE PRES. AL GORE:
Thank you very much, Chuck. Thank you for inviting me.
CHUCK TODD:
You know, this week felt like your PowerPoint from Inconvenient Truth come to life. Some of the headlines: The Colorado River having to do water rations, the Monarch butterfly declared an endangered species. We had the ice melt in Greenland, record high temperatures in the UK, wildfires in France and Greece, the Rio Grande is running dry in New Mexico. It's here. How much do you look back at what you warned and suddenly you see it come to life?
FMR. VICE PRES. AL GORE:
Well, I wish the scientists had been wrong in their predictions going back decades now, Chuck. All I have done is really convey the scientific facts as the scientists have patiently explained them to me. But the fact that they were dead right, if a little conservative, actually, in some of the impacts that are occurring more harshly and more frequently than they predicted. But they were pretty much spot on. And because they were, we should listen more carefully to what they're telling us would happen if we don't quickly reduce the global warming pollution emissions that are causing this global emergency. It's due to get much, much worse, and quickly. But we have the ability to stop temperatures from going up. If we got to true net-zero, the temperatures on Earth would stop going up with a lag time of as little as three to five years, almost as if we've flipped a switch. And if we stayed at true net-zero, then half of the human cause to CO2 emissions would fall out of the atmosphere in as little as 25 to 30 years. And we have the solutions available.
CHUCK TODD:
Right.
FMR. VICE PRES. AL GORE:
We need to deploy them quickly.
CHUCK TODD:
Let's talk about the issue, though, that I think is probably the biggest challenge and that is political will. And it's not just in this country; China and India are emerging powers that are reliant on fossil fuels. Europe is backsliding with the decision on methane. How — if the United States can't be a global leader here, who will?
FMR. VICE PRES. AL GORE:
Well, the United States must step up and provide leadership. And of course, President Biden's been trying to do that. And he has a 50-50 Senate, really a 49-51 Senate on everything related to the climate, and a razor-thin majority in the House. You know, Abraham Lincoln once said, "With public sentiment, everything is possible. Without it, nothing can succeed." The rest of us need to step up. The one thing that Senator Manchin said that I really agree with is that, "If we want more pro-climate policies, we need to elect more pro-climate senators and representatives in both parties." And we've got an election coming up. And this is time for all of us to step up. You know, the climate deniers are really in some ways similar to all of those almost 400 law enforcement officers in Uvalde, Texas, who were waiting outside an unlocked door while the children were being massacred. They heard the screams, they heard the gunshots, and nobody stepped forward. And god bless those families who've suffered so much. And law enforcement officials tell us that's not typical of what law enforcement usually does. And confronted with this global emergency, what we're doing with our inaction and failing to walk through the door and stop the killing is not typical of what we are capable of as human beings. We do have the solutions. And I think these extreme events that are getting steadily worse and more severe are really beginning to change minds. We have to have unity as a nation to come together and stop making this a political football. It shouldn't be a partisan issue.
CHUCK TODD:
You know, it's interesting, public sentiment on climate is certainly in some ways growing more urgent. And you've made notice that rank-and-file Republicans are growing more concerned about the climate. But, you know, public opinion is on one side on abortion, is on one side on guns, is on one side on climate. And yet, you see that it hasn't mattered to some of the decisions that are made in our politics. How do you break through this?
FMR. VICE PRES. AL GORE:
Well, you're exactly right, and public sentiment is changing, but our Democracy is broken. And in order to solve the climate crisis, we're going to have to pay attention to the democracy crisis. The same reason that it's seemingly impossible for the Congress to pass legislation banning these weapons of war, these assault rifles that are being used to murder children in classrooms and create hundreds of mass-casualty events already this year, and that's getting worse; the same reason we can't pass legislation to, for example, reinstate the ban on assault weapons; is the same reason that we can't pass climate legislation. We have a minority government. We have the filibuster, still, which ought to be eliminated. We have big money playing much too large a role in our politics, lobbyists for the fossil-fuel industry. And they're still running all of these advertisements, trying to convince people that it's not that bad, or they've, "Got this, don't worry about it." We have got to rise to this challenge, Chuck. You know, what you see behind me is a picture from the space station showing how thin the atmosphere is. If you could drive to the top of that blue line, drive straight up in the air at interstate highway speeds, you'd get to the top of that line in about five minutes. And below you would be all of the greenhouse gas pollution. We're using that as an open sewer, dumping 162 million tons into it every day. And the accumulated amount now traps as much heat as would be released by 600,000 Hiroshima-class atomic bombs exploding on the Earth every day. And we have the solutions. Renewable energy from wind and solar is now cheaper in almost the entire world than electricity from fossil fuels. Those utilities here in the U.S. that have doubled down on gas are seeing their rates go up while those who are picking solar and wind, their rates are going down.
CHUCK TODD:
Look, solar appears to have kept Texas from having brownouts because they expanded their solar on the grid. But let me ask you this: What should President Biden do now? Besides advocating for more pro-climate senators, that's a ballot box solution, is there anything he can do on an executive aspect of things around Congress right now?
FMR. VICE PRES. AL GORE:
Well, I welcome his announcement this week to jump-start the off-shore wind industry in the U.S. And he's taken quite a number of other important actions. And he's reversed some of the terrible policies of his predecessor. But he needs congressional action in order to take the bold steps that are really needed. There are other things he can do. He ought to replace the head of the World Bank, for goodness sake. His predecessor put a climate denier in charge of the World Bank. And so we're not seeing the kinds of global policies that we should. The Postal Service is buying all of these new trucks. They all ought to be electric. There are many other things that he can do. He can stop approving any more fossil-fuel development on federal lands and permits for yet more fossil-fuel development. The International Energy Agency says that we should not have any new oil and gas fields developed if we want to see the survival of human civilization in anything resembling its current form.
CHUCK TODD:
And yet, inflation and the price of gas. You were an elected official. You know the burden of that that hangs on these politicians, you know? Short term, long term, you see the pressure President Biden's under.
FMR. VICE PRES. AL GORE:
Yeah, and as the Secretary General of the United Nations said, "As long as we feed our addiction to fossil fuels, we're going to continue to place political leaders into these untenable positions where all the choices are bad." We can't confuse the short term with the long term, Chuck. Getting through this crisis with Russia's invasion is one thing; getting past the election with gasoline prices, you know, they're already coming down, that's one thing. But investing in more fossil fuel infrastructure that will guarantee emissions increasing for decades into the future? That's a horrible mistake that at this point we simply cannot afford to make that mistake.
CHUCK TODD:
I want to shift. You talked about the broken democracy and your concession speech from 2000 was invoked at the hearing. I want to play a clip of that and what Mr. Pottinger, who testified, said about it.
[START TAPE]
VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE:
Let there be no doubt. While I strongly disagree with the court's decision, I accept it. And tonight, for the sake of our unity as a people and the strength of our democracy, I offer my concession.
MATTHEW FORBES POTTINGER:
His speech is actually a pretty good model, I think, for any candidate for any office up to and including the president and from any party.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
Vice President Pence has been called a hero by some for what he did on January 6th. What say you?
FMR. VICE PRES. AL GORE:
Well, in the current environment, just doing what the law and the Constitution requires seems heroic to some. I'm glad he made that decision. You know, he was a freshman congressman sitting in the chamber when I counted the electoral votes in early January of 2001. I think that those who have tried to continue promoting doubt and suspicion about the efficacy of our democracy are really performing in an anti-American way and they should be held to account. And that committee, by the way, I want to congratulation Bennie Thompson, and Liz Cheney, and every single member of that committee. They are performing an historic service to our nation.
CHUCK TODD:
I'm not going to let you go without asking you this: Australia’s election was a climate change election. And you talked about, "In order to get that political will." Jay Inslee tried to run a climate-focused campaign and it didn't get off the ground. Why not you, Al Gore?
FMR. VICE PRES. AL GORE:
Why not me, as a candidate?
CHUCK TODD:
Leading a climate change presidential campaign in the future.
FMR. VICE PRES. AL GORE:
Oh, well, thank you for making the suggestion. You know, I'm a recovering politician. And the longer I go without a relapse, the less likely one becomes.
CHUCK TODD:
But the idea of climate change and making it the issue, would you like to see more presidential candidates do it?
FMR. VICE PRES. AL GORE:
Absolutely. Public sentiment is changing very dramatically, but we need more grassroots action on the part of Americans, not only in the upcoming congressional races and the presidential race in 2024, but in the local races, and in the state elections, as well. We, the people, have to solve this. And we have to instruct those who are positions of leadership to start doing the right thing. Our survival as a species may depend upon it.
CHUCK TODD:
Al Gore, thanks for coming on, sharing your perspective and your leadership on this issue. I appreciate it.
FMR. VICE PRES. AL GORE:
Thank you, Chuck.
CHUCK TODD:
When we come back: The January 6th hearings. Will they lead to a criminal prosecution of Former President Donald Trump? I'll talk to the congresswoman who led Thursday's hearing, Elaine Luria of Virginia. Stay with us.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. As more people provide information to the January 6th committee, the co-chair Liz Cheney says, "The dam has begun to break” against former President Trump when it comes to more witnesses coming forward. The last hearing for now detailed how Mr. Trump refused to do anything to stop his supporters from ransacking the Capitol and threatening Vice President Pence and members of Congress. So what is next? Will the committee make a criminal referral? Will the Justice Department decide to prosecute Mr. Trump? And what has been the political cost to the former president? Joining me now is a committee member who led Thursday's hearing. It's Democrat Elaine Luria of Virginia. Congresswoman, welcome back to Meet the Press. So the dam has begun to break. Obviously that means more evidence, more witnesses. And let me ask about a specific witness that we've not heard from that is probably the biggest one besides the president, and that'd be Mark Meadows. Are we going to hear from him or is the extent of his cooperation all that we’ve got?
REP. ELAINE LURIA:
I have no indication right now that he has, you know, changed his position or willing to come forward in any way that he wasn't before. As you recall, he gave us a trove of text messages which have, you know, led us to a lot of other information relative to the investigation. But ever since we subpoenaed him, he defied that subpoena – the Justice Department essentially threw that case out. There's not to my knowledge been any change of mind on his path.
CHUCK TODD:
You know, it's interesting you talked about that you guys made a criminal referral to the Justice Department and they threw it out. But they just got a conviction on Bannon. Do you want them to revisit the Meadows decision?
REP. ELAINE LURIA:
I don't know the process by which – you know, I don't think that they can revisit something that they've already dismissed. But he's certainly someone who has probably more information than anyone, you know, other than the folks we've already heard from who were in the White House that day. So that information would be incredibly helpful. But we've been able to piece together so much, as you've seen – Cassidy Hutchinson, Sarah Matthews, other people who were present in the White House. And so if he's listening, we'd love to hear from him.
CHUCK TODD:
This has been a very orderly way that you've sort of showcased the evidence as you've gotten it. And it feels somewhat conclusionary. And yet, now you say there are going to be hearings in September. What part of the timeline should we expect? Is this more about January 6th and after? Is that what we should expect in September, more about his actions on January 7th, 8th and 9th?
REP. ELAINE LURIA:
Well, so, you know, you said that Liz Cheney mentioned, "The dam has broken." So the floodgates have opened. I mean, I think when we initially planned the arc of the story, the information, the way we would present that through these hearings, we thought that the hearing this week would be the final hearing. But so many more witnesses have come forward. You know, we've got new information that we're requesting and receiving as well from the Secret Service. And there's just a lot of questions still to be answered on that front. So I think that's something we're still working through, taking in this new information, putting it on top, laying it on top of what we've already presented. So I think there'll be some information that covers the whole span, but probably more in-depth and more conclusive about maybe some things we didn't know as much about. I mean, there's still so much out there that we don't fully understand yet.
CHUCK TODD:
You know, in my library at home I have paperbacks of the Warren Commission, the Iran-Contra hearings, the Watergate hearings, the Starr Report. Is there going to be a January 6th Committee, you know, basically report that the American people, tangible, that they will have in their hands? And if so, when?
REP. ELAINE LURIA:
That will be the final product of the committee. I think that the timeline for putting that report out – it’s still to be determined as we continue to do the investigation.
CHUCK TODD:
Well, it has to be before January 3rd, right? It has to be before January 3rd of next year, given this Congress ends.
REP. ELAINE LURIA:
Yes. But, you know, many folks have, you know, said, "Will that be before election, after?" I mean, you know, we're not looking at it through a political lens of the midterm elections. We're looking at it through getting to the truth about the events of January 6th. And, you know, we're actively continuing the investigation and on a parallel path, you know, working on putting together the information for the report. Now, recommendations, I mean, that's the most important part of this, because as a congressional committee, we're tasked with providing recommendations to prevent something like this in the future.
CHUCK TODD:
I want to ask about the decision to grant anonymity. Because, you know, at the end of the hearing on Thursday, Vice Chair Liz Cheney praised the courage of the witnesses that have risked so much to publicly come forward. I mean, we saw in real time what Sarah Matthews went through, just, you know, with former colleagues attacking her on social media in real time. So on one hand, you've got these brave folks coming out and putting their name and face and reputations on the line. And then you've granted anonymity over here. I'll bet you there's a lot of witnesses that wish they could have gotten that anonymity. Explain why you granted it.
REP. ELAINE LURIA:
Well, we did that in the case of some national security professionals. And I think it's very important both for their continuation of the roles in which they serve. And also, you know, this is one of those things that's really the most disturbing about this. You know, I served in uniform for 20 years and understanding that there's a lot of people who are professionals who have information, but they've seen what happened in the Trump White House for people who came forward and how they had retribution, retaliation. I think those people fear that if Donald Trump ever came near the White House again, they'd have a target on their back from day one.
CHUCK TODD:
I understand that. But, you know, look, in my business, anonymous sources are certainly helpful and useful. But to the public, it gives them skepticism. And using an anonymous – I mean, an anonymous source, it does lessen the credibility of that --
REP. ELAINE LURIA:
I totally disagree.
CHUCK TODD:
– information in the eyes of some people.
REP. ELAINE LURIA:
Well, I would say I totally disagree. I think we have to respect the privacy, and in this case anonymity, and safety of these people, both from a physical safety standpoint, but also for them to be able to continue their roles in government unimpeded. So it was a decision that we made in the committee really easily because we understood the importance of maintaining their anonymity. But the takeaway from it is the fact that if the Trump administration were to come back again, these people, they fear retaliation.
CHUCK TODD:
Right. The Justice Department, are you seeing any signs – I know you've been among those frustrated about what appears to be a lack of a criminal investigation. Do you see any signs that one’s been opened?
REP. ELAINE LURIA:
I sure as hell hope they have a criminal investigation at this point into Donald Trump. I have no direct knowledge of the status of their investigations. But what I'd say is, yeah, I can tell the Department of Justice is watching our hearings closely. There have been cases for criminal defendants who have been charged and found guilty for events on January 6th. And they have actually quoted testimony from the January 6th witnesses and hearings. So, you know, Merrick Garland has already told us he's listening and if he's watching today, I'd tell him he doesn't need to wait on us because I think he has plenty to keep moving forward.
CHUCK TODD:
How do you guys – the Georgia investigation which is happening simultaneously, has there been any overlap there at all? Or is that something that essentially you guys are observers of?
REP. ELAINE LURIA:
I'd say the latter.
CHUCK TODD:
Okay. Liz Cheney gave a pretty impassioned speech and praised how many women have had the guts to come out versus the men that hide behind executive privilege.
REP. ELAINE LURIA:
It was very clever.
CHUCK TODD:
It was, it was an interesting take. And I know you've grown professionally pretty close to her. Look, her primary in Wyoming may go a way that she doesn't want it to go. But would you like to see her run for president in 2024?
REP. ELAINE LURIA:
I admire Liz Cheney. I have been friendly with her ever since I came to Congress even before we served on this committee together. And I think, you know, if she doesn't, you know, come through this primary and come back to Congress, there are so many things that she can do in the future for our country.
CHUCK TODD:
I’m not asking whether you would support her running for president. But as somebody, do you think her voice should be, is needed in that--
REP. ELAINE LURIA:
Her voice is absolutely needed. And I think she's one of unfortunately a very small number of people who need to be the face of the Republican Party in the future. I would love to get back to where we had two political parties that, you know, debate on issues and facts and not, you know, lies. And I, you know, really hope that Liz Cheney will continue. And, you know, I don't want to speculate. She's said herself that she doesn't know what her future plans will be.
CHUCK TODD:
We shall see, but there's definitely the need for a leader of a pro-democracy wing of the GOP. Elaine Luria, Congresswoman, Democrat from Virginia, thanks very much. Alright, we’re going to continue our conversation here about January 6th and what the investigation may do to Donald Trump, both politically and legally here. The panel is here: Yamiche Alcindor, who of course works here at NBC News and is the host of Washington Week on PBS; Jake Sherman, the co-founder of Punchbowl News; Stephen Hayes, editor of The Dispatch; and Mara Teresa Kumar, president of Voto Latino. I want to start…I ended with Liz Cheney there and I want to start with her, but I want to start with her diagnosis of how Donald Trump weaponized parts of the Republican Party. Take a listen.
LIZ CHENEY:
Donald Trump knows that millions of Americans who supported him would stand up and defend our nation were it threatened. He is preying on their patriotism. He is preying on their sense of justice. And on January 6th, Donald Trump turned their love of country into a weapon against our Capitol and our constitution.
CHUCK TODD:
Steve Hayes, you know, when we go to this idea, "Don't attack Trump supporters"—Bret Stephens's column from the New York Times this week—I thought this was a fascinating way for her to try to show how Trump manipulated these people.
STEPHEN HAYES:
Yeah. And I think she's absolutely right. And if you look at what's happened over the course of these hearings, they've provided the details of how she's right. I mean, this is what Donald Trump has done. He’s telling people who…there's a huge group of Republicans who don't pay attention to every twist and turn of what's happening in Washington the way that we do. They're living their lives. They're raising their families. They're going to work. And they're not aware of all of all the things that Donald Trump has done. I think one of the things the hearings have made clear is that if you thought on January 6th or January 7th that there was this rally and Donald Trump had the right to raise objections, and you weren't really paying attention, but that, you know, ultimately this wasn't really Donald Trump’s fault, the hearings have made clear that this was a plan, a multifaceted plan, detailed, laid out in advance with the help of top Trump advisors and crazy people who are not Trump advisors. Just showing that and providing the facts from people who work for Trump, that, I think is what has made these hearings so effective, is that came from Republicans, and not just Republicans, but Republicans who chose to dedicate their career to working for Donald Trump. These are the people making the case against Trump.
CHUCK TODD:
So, Yamiche, it's sticking as a narrative. Is it going to have a political impact?
YAMICHE ALCINDOR:
I mean, that is the key question. It is the question that I think is sort of unanswered. When I talk to Republicans, both those who are horrified by what Former President Trump did, as well as those who are still supportive of him, they all think that the opinions were sort of hardened long before these hearings, that these hearings have brought out new information. But in terms of, sort of, whether or not you think Donald Trump was wrong to do January 6th, wrong to pour gasoline on the fire at 2:24 when this mob was already in the Capitol and Former Vice President Mike Pence is running through the halls and being evacuated, they say that this really isn't going to make a big political difference. Of course, the midterms are a long way away, 2024 is even farther away. And Liz Cheney's words could be a model for the kind of Republican argument for someone who wants to win the nomination if Trump ends up getting in the race. But I will also say that when you think about what Former President Trump is doing, even this week, he is continuing to try to get the election overturned, right? He's calling up Wisconsin officials this week, trying to get them to change their results. This is someone who has stuck to this plan, who is believing that this is just sort of the way forward. And he has a large base of people who are still continuing to support him. And I will say one other thing. I watched this video onset with you, watched the hearing onset with you and Lester Holt and so many others. And I'm still sort of baffled by the fact that this happened. It's still surreal that people broke into our Capitol and that Donald Trump hasn't been completely excommunicated, not just from the Republican Party, but from the entire political atmosphere.
MARIA TERESA KUMAR:
One of things that's interesting though is that what Liz is referring to, what Liz Cheney is referring to now is that the fever seems to be breaking. The fact that Pence went into Arizona to go ahead and rally for another candidate, that's huge. The fact that his candidates, Trump's candidates, Dr. Oz and J.D. Vance, are not doing well, that they're in a dead heat, also speaks to, perhaps, the fever breaking. But the fact that on Friday, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Post went against Donald Trump and basically said that he was unfit for office, regardless if there is a criminal indictment by the DOJ, that is big business.
CHUCK TODD:
Well, the Murdochs have made it clear which side they want to be on.
MARIA TERESA KUMAR:
And this is the other thing is that what we may be seeing right now is Trump going at it alone. Is it more close to what Teddy Roosevelt did in 1912 with the Bull Moose Party and said, "You know what? I'm going to break off and cleave from the Republican Party and create my own." And that's something to watch.
JAKE SHERMAN:
I think we as journalists and as political observers tend to overstate what people are going to vote for. I think that these hearings have laid a foundation in people's minds that Donald Trump obviously was…I was in the Capitol on January 6th. He was obviously responsible in a major way. And the people who have - Kevin McCarthy and the Republican Leadership - who have decided to not be a part of this investigation, I think that is going..it’s probably the biggest act of political malpractice I have ever seen. And I think all of that will lay a foundation. Maybe it's not this election. Maybe it's an election in the future.
CHUCK TODD:
That's where I lean is that it's less '22, probably more '24. But here's one truism, and I've got to go, and that is candidates that are focused on the past usually don't do well. Coming up, we're going to turn to the economy and the growing fears of a country headed to a recession. We're going to talk to the Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, when we return.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. If there's one overriding explanation for President Biden's sinking approval ratings, well, as James Carville once said, "It's the economy, stupid." Wage gains are being gobbled up by inflation, which increased by 9.1% in June over the last year, highest rate in more than 40 years, which is a phrase we've said after every inflationary report over the last six months. Just this past week, Mr. Biden's approval rating on the economy in a new Quinnipiac poll is just 28%, with 66% disapproving. Inflation was by far the most significant issue cited. So let's dig into it. Joining me now is the Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen. Secretary Yellen, welcome back to Meet the Press.
SEC. JANET YELLEN:
Thank you. It’s a pleasure to be with you.
CHUCK TODD:
Let me just start with this: Many businesses seem to be preparing for a recession. Should all Americans at home be preparing for a recession that many people think now is likely?
SEC. JANET YELLEN:
Well, look, the economy is slowing down. Last year, it grew very rapidly at about 5.5%. And that succeeded in putting people back to work who had lost their jobs during the pandemic. The labor market is now extremely strong. Even just during the last three months, net job gains averaged 375,000. This is not an economy that's in recession. But we're in a period of transition in which growth is slowing. And that's necessary and appropriate, and we need to be growing at a steady and sustainable pace. So there is a slow-down and businesses can see that. And that's appropriate, given that people now have jobs and we have a strong labor market. But you don't see any of the signs now. A recession is a broad-based contraction that affects many sectors of the economy. We just don't have that. Consumer spending remains solid. It's continuing to grow. Output, industrial output, has grown in five of the six most recent months. Credit quality remains very strong. Household balance sheets are generally in good shape. But inflation is way too high. And, you know, the Fed is charged with putting in place policies that will bring inflation down. And I expect them to be successful. The administration for its part is supplementing those Fed policies with things we can do. We've cut the deficit by a record $1.5 trillion this year. Releases of gas from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve are putting some downward pressure on gas prices. We have seen our gas prices just in recent weeks come down by about $0.50, and there should be more in the pipeline. And hopefully, we will pass a bill that will lower prescription drug costs and maintain current levels of health care costs.
CHUCK TODD:
You seem pretty optimistic, it sounds like, from that answer that we're going to avoid a recession. But I want to throw in two data points that you didn't bring up. One was these reports on Friday about both in the Euro space and in the United States that we've seen some contraction of business activity. Throw in the uptick of unemployment – the weekly unemployment number there. Is that not the first sign of a coming recession, even if it's a mild one?
SEC. JANET YELLEN:
Well, you know, I would say that we're seeing a slow-down. We're likely to see some slowing of job creation. I do – I don't think that that's a recession. A recession is broad-based weakness in the economy. We're not seeing that now. And I absolutely don't think that's necessary. But, look, there are also risks we have to appreciate. Inflation is high, not just in the United States, but also in many of our neighbors, in the U.K., in Canada, in the Euro area. Central banks are addressing that. We have a war in Ukraine that threatens potentially even higher oil prices than we're seeing right now. One of the things that I've been doing in recent weeks is working with our allies to try to cap the price of – that Russia receives for its oil, both to diminish the revenues that Russia gets, but also to keep Russian oil selling in global markets so that when the next round of sanctions is put in place in December by the European Union, we're concerned that significant amounts of oil could be shut in in Russia, leading to an oil price spike. So there are threats on the horizon. Growth is slowing globally. And I'm not saying that we will definitely avoid a recession, but I think there is a path that keeps the labor market strong and brings inflation down.
CHUCK TODD:
Help us play armchair economist this week. There is a ton of data coming out this week. It's probably a fun week for an economist because we're going to have consumer confidence survey, the second quarter GDP numbers. We've got the inflation numbers for June. Which is the indicator? What's the number you're most focused on that will give you a better indication of where this economy is headed?
SEC. JANET YELLEN:
Well, I look at all the data. And GDP will be closely watched. A common definition of recession is two negative quarters of GDP growth, or at least that's something that's been true in past recessions. When we've seen that, there has usually been a recession. And many economists expect second quarter GDP to be negative. First quarter GDP was negative. So we could see that happen. And that will be closely watched. But I do want to emphasize: What a recession really means is a broad-based contraction in the economy. And even if that number is negative, we are not in a recession now. And I would, you know, warn that we should be not characterizing that as a recession --
CHUCK TODD:
I understand that, but you're splitting hairs. I mean, if the technical definition is two quarters of contraction, you're saying that's not a recession?
SEC. JANET YELLEN:
That's not the tech --
CHUCK TODD:
No?
SEC. JANET YELLEN:
That's not the technical definition. There's an organization called the National Bureau of Economic Research that looks at a broad range of data in deciding whether or not there is a recession. And most of the data that they look at right now continues to be strong. I would be amazed if the NBER would declare this period to be a recession, even if it happens to have two quarters of negative growth. We've got a very strong labor market. When you're creating almost 400,000 jobs a month, that is not a recession.
CHUCK TODD:
Janet Yellen, the Secretary of Treasury and obviously the former chair of the Federal Reserve. Always appreciate getting you on and getting your perspective. Thank you.
SEC. JANET YELLEN:
Thanks, Chuck.
CHUCK TODD:
When we come back: suspicious minds. Would someone's political party affiliation keep you from becoming friends with them? Guess what? A lot of Americans now say yes. Stay with us.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back, data download time. And a look at our tumultuous politics over the past few years have left Americans divided, alienated, increasingly suspicious of their fellow citizens. We politicize everything now. Making friends. The University of Chicago offered a list of what's most important when it comes to making new friends, and a -- the political view of that person came out on top, with 52%, over even taste in music or entertainment and religion. The most -- another way of looking at our suspicion of each other: Is the other party untruthful? 70% of Republicans believe Democrats are untruthful. And, ready for this? 69% of Democrats believe Republicans are untruthful. So I guess you could say we agree on that. This pessimism overall in this poll showed up everywhere. 56% believe the government is corrupt and rigged. Ready for this? Another 49% say, 49% -- half of Americans -- believe they feel like a stranger in their own country. And this is a scary one, one in four Americans, 28%, believe we may need to take up arms against the government. This is a pessimistic electorate going into these midterms. What will this mean in November? When we come back, we're going to take a look because, guess what? It may not surprise you. Americans don't like their leadership here in Washington, no matter the political strife. Stay with us.
CHUCK TODD:
We are back. Look, I want to show this set of numbers from Quinnipiac because this is a classic pox on all of Washington. Job approval ratings: The Supreme Court is the tallest little person in the room here, sitting at an approval rating of 37%. President Biden is lording over congressional Democrats with 31% job approval to their 30% job approval, with Republicans in Congress 23%. You know, this is the cross current, Maria Teresa, that is I think making the midterms like it's not a done deal yet.
MARIA TERESA KUMAR:
The midterms I could say right now is absolutely not going to be a blow-out. In 2014, we saw the opposing party at least 30 points ahead of the Democrats at the time. And it was clear that they were going to change. Now, it is a dead heat. You look at the Senate, it does look like you're going to have perhaps two senators, one from Ohio, one from Pennsylvania, on the Democratic side. And among the Democrats inside Washington, it's like, we may lose the House, but let's limit the losses. And while it looks like -- when you poll Republican against Democrat, it looks like it's almost a dead heat evenly, the moment that you put a MAGA Republican against a Democrat, that all of a sudden stirs a completely different reaction among the population. So I think it's going to be closer than folks realize.
CHUCK TODD:
You know, Stephen, every other midterm when the out party wins, they fashion themselves as something new.
STEPHEN HAYES:
Right.
CHUCK TODD:
That is the missing piece here for the GOP. They're not offering anything new.
STEPHEN HAYES:
No. They're hoping to trade on volatility and the unpopularity of Joe Biden. If you go back though and look at races since 2006, every single election since 2006, with the exception of 2012 when Barack Obama was reelected, has been a change election. That is extraordinary volatility in our politics, and I think we're likely to see more of it now. Republicans I think could well succeed. I do expect that it will be a pretty good day for Republicans, certainly in the House, maybe in the Senate, because they're not Joe Biden, because people are looking at these inflation numbers, because we could be on the verge of a recession. Their view is, "We don't have to put forth much of an agenda. And to the extent that we do, it'll be negative for us.”
CHUCK TODD:
By the way, speaking of recession, boy, Janet Yellen seemed to preview that GDP might be negative this week, and a lot of people are going to say that's going to meet a definition of recession. Hey, but don't call it a recession. What do you make of that spin, Yamiche?
YAMICHE ALCINDOR:
It’s -- well, one, it's really interesting because obviously, the Treasury Secretary and the White House, they don't want to be leaning in too much into negative language when it comes to the economy, especially because we're in this strange place in the economy where there’s all these jobs, but still Americans are seeing low wages. They want to get raises. But also, people are just sort of tired of doing the sort of economy that we had pre-pandemic. People want to have more flexibility. People are leaving their jobs. And then when I also looked at these numbers and we think about sort of the approval rating in Washington, I also went back and looked at the approval rating of scientists, of journalists. Americans are sort of in a position where they don't like anyone right now. And that probably benefits the Republicans. But there's also, of course, still abortion politics and sort of the way that Democrats want to mobilize on that issue. But I think overall, America's in a weird place because I think we're in this -- we’re still traumatized by the pandemic. We're still dealing with all of the things, all the challenges that are coming up. And then I think you also have Americans just sort of trying to balance their, I think, real apathy for all of the different sectors of government and science and the media.
JAKE SHERMAN:
Part of me wants to just say, and this is based on conversations I've had on the Hill the last couple weeks, is “don't overthink it.” I mean, Republicans have the largest majority in the House of Representatives that they've had -- minority, sorry, in a very long time. It doesn't take a lot for them to have a historically large Republican majority. Will that happen? I have no idea. But it doesn’t -- if they win the mean, the average of what they would win in a midterm election, in the first midterm election of a president's cycle, they're already in one of the largest majorities in a very long time. So I think that is what -- and add on negative GDP numbers. Add on a stagnant economy, and I think it’s just, I think we're going to have a really good night for Republicans on Capitol Hill.
CHUCK TODD:
The issue with the Senate races though, is something that seems to be, I mean, it is the story of 2010 for the Republicans. It was the story of, it’s of why it took them an extra four years to get the Senate the last time.
JAKE SHERMAN:
It's really interesting to watch because you've had a bunch of Republican candidates: Herschel Walker in Georgia, Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania, and J.D. Vance in Ohio, who have, let's put it mildly, struggled a little bit, ranging from a little bit to a lot. And Mitch McConnell's super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, has not really gotten in and pushed their preferred candidates in a lot of races this cycle and--
CHUCK TODD:
They had threatened to.
JAKE SHERMAN:
They threatened to, and they still might in Missouri if Eric Greitens nears that nomination. But it is very interesting to see them kind of take this hands-off approach, while Raphael Warnock is, you know, kind of eyes-on-the-prize and charging ahead against Herschel Walker, who -- a video came out last week where he was imagining to be an FBI agent, and he said he was an FBI agent. Republicans are kind of just sitting there on Capitol Hill being, like, "God, what is going on?"
MARIA TERESA KUMAR:
What’s going on?
STEPHEN HAYES:
Well that doesn't explain, that doesn't explain weak candidates.
MARIA TERESA KUMAR:
No, but these are, these are all the three that you mentioned -- J.D. Vance, Dr. Oz, and Herschel Walker, they're all--
CHUCK TODD:
McConnell tried to stop all three, by the way.
MARIA TERESA KUMAR:
Exactly right. But, I mean, I think--
CHUCK TODD:
Half way.
MARIA TERESA KUMAR:
But that could be one of the reasons why Mitch McConnell isn't. He basically maybe he wants -- he’s like, "Let's go back to normal where we are talking about policy as a Republican and Democratic Party," and the only way to do so is by sacrificing some of these senatorial seats.
(OVERTALK)
STEPHEN HAYES:
I think Mitch McConnell very much wants to be majority leader.
CHUCK TODD:
Agreed.
(OVERTALK)
CHUCK TODD:
And if it's J.D. Vance that gets in there, he'll take it. If it's Herschel Walker, he'll take it.
STEPHEN HAYES:
I think the great irony is that clearly Donald Trump is pulling these candidates, making fringe candidates more mainstream by supporting them and providing them with outside funding in a way that I think is ironic. When you look at the so-called establishment Republicans, you would expect that they might create more distance, might have a bigger fight. But instead, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is sending out mail as late as this week saying, "Endorse Trump. Protect Donald Trump's legacy."
CHUCK TODD:
Well this what gets me back to -- a midterm election, Yamiche, is normally supposed to be a referendum on the current party. But the Republicans are allowing another president to basically be on the ballot too. So we are having a -- if the midterms are no longer a referendum but a proxy fight between, well, we know what that is, we're a polarized electorate. It's going to be a coin flip.
YAMICHE ALCINDOR:
Yeah well, the question is: Will we see the limitations of sort of celebrity and personality politics, right? So when we think about sort of all the people that you mentioned, Herschel Walker and J.D. Vance, part of what they're trying to do is recreate what former President Donald Trump did, which is not really have a lot of policies, but have people feel like you hear them, move people in a way that is not--
CHUCK TODD:
You're describing the Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary right now between sort of a wannabe celebrity Trumper, versus somebody who sort of worked their way through the system.
YAMICHE ALCINDOR:
And with an electorate that's sort of angry at everybody, do they look up and say, "You know what? I like this celebrity. He's kind of interesting to me," or do they say, "You know what? I'm going to go with the guy who's preaching at Martin Luther King's church, and I'm going to go there?”
CHUCK TODD:
All right, that's--
MARIA TERESA KUMAR:
I think the biggest coin toss in the midterms is whether or not young voters and people of color come out. That's the, that’s the coin toss.
CHUCK TODD:
I completely agree on there. All right. That's it for today. We could've gone to overtime, but I am out of time. Thank you for watching. We're back next week because if it's Sunday, it’s Meet the Press.