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Meet the Press - March 6, 2022

Richard Engel, Kelly Cobiella, Antony Blinken, Joe Manchin, Nikki Haley, James Stavridis, Fiona Hill, Eddie Glaude, Stephen Hayes, Hallie Jackson, Robin Wright

CHUCK TODD:

This Sunday, the Russian onslaught.

UKRAINIAN WOMAN:

It's destroyed. Russia destroyed it all.

CHUCK TODD:

Russia seizing territory and laying siege to Ukraine's cities as Valdimir Putin says Ukraine may lose its statehood.

UKRAINIAN WOMAN:

Today they have bombed my city. Destroyed many, many houses.

CHUCK TODD:

Thousands huddle underground.

UKRAINIAN WOMAN:

Please, we don't have enough food for my baby.

CHUCK TODD:Ukrainians fill the streets with protests, and continue their fierce fight on the battlefield

UKRAINIAN MAN:

We are fighting for our freedom, for our self-reliance.

CHUCK TODD:

Western nations, though, reject President Zelenskyy's calls for a no-fly zone.

PRES. VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY:

The world has to talk with Putin because there are no other ways to stop this war.

CHUCK TODD:

Plus, the refugee crisis. Some 1.5 million have already fled the country.

UKRAINIAN WOMAN:

My mom was crying and telling me that, that maybe she never see me again.

CHUCK TODD:

Ukrainians leaving everything behind:

UKRAINIAN WOMAN:

My husband, my home, my dog, my cats, my life.

CHUCK TODD:

And amid the crowds, charges of bias against some refugees.

WOMAN:

As long as you're Black no one likes you.

CHUCK TODD:

My guests this morning, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and we'll have reports from Kyiv and the Polish border. Plus, the first post-invasion poll shows a big bounce for President Biden. Are we about to see a change in our domestic politics? Joining me for insight and analysis are: NBC News Senior Washington correspondent Hallie Jackson, Eddie Glaude, Jr., of Princeton University, Robin Wright of The New Yorker and Stephen Hayes, founder of The Dispatch. Welcome to Sunday, and a special edition of Meet the Press.

ANNOUNCER:

From NBC News in Washington, the longest-running show in television history. This is a special edition of Meet the Press with Chuck Todd.

CHUCK TODD:

And a good Sunday morning. We've seen the world rally around Ukraine, moved by its fierce resistance and moments like this one. This is what Ukrainian officials say is the shooting down of a Russian helicopter. But it is also true that the worst of this war is yet to come for Ukraine. Yesterday, Vladimir Putin, in a pretty menacing way, threatened Ukraine with its statehood as Russian forces bomb military targets and civilians alike, laying waste to Ukrainian cities, violating some small humanitarian corridors. There's panic in places like Kyiv, where people are jamming rail stations, desperate to get out before an expected full Russian assault on the capital. Russia does control areas in the south and east of Ukraine. They're aiming to cut Ukraine off from the sea and trap its army internally. Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, in his own country signed a new law cracking down on free speech, making it a possible crime in Russia to call this what it actually is, which is a war. And with the Russian economy crippled by sanctions, Putin is actually now calling that a declaration of war. There are growing concerns that a cornered Putin could lash out and widen this conflict beyond Ukraine's borders. We're going to start this morning with two reports from the region. Kelly Cobiella is in Poland, near the Ukrainian border, reporting on the roughly 1.5 million Ukrainians who have now fled their country. But we're going to kick things off with our chief foreign Correspondent Richard Engel, who's in Kyiv. And Richard, just simply a lot's happened overnight. What is the latest from your perspective?

RICHARD ENGEL:

So, Chuck, a second attempt to evacuate civilians from the city of Mariupol by opening up a humanitarian corridor has collapsed, with both sides, both the Russians and the Ukrainians, blaming the other for the breakdown. So it means that the people are still trapped in that city, still under fire, and without food, power, water. Here in Kyiv, Russian forces are advancing toward the city. They are making slow advances in the northeast, around the neighborhoods of Irpin and Puscha. And I just spoke with the mayor of Kyiv a short while ago, and he told me that roughly 10,000 people have been killed so far, according to figures that he has, on both sides of the conflict. And I asked him how long he thinks Kyiv can hold out, and he said, frankly, he doesn't know, but that he believes it can be a long time because the people here have a lot of fighting spirit and they're not fighting for the will of one man.

CHUCK TODD:

Richard, look, a little of the Russian side of things is a bit opaque, obviously, with the crackdown that they have on a free press. But just from observational sake, it looks like this Russian army is not performing very well. What do you know?

RICHARD ENGEL:

So sources have been telling me, sources that are well connected to the Russian Security Services, that the offensive is not going well, that some special forces, the Russian Spetsnaz, are furious because they have been sent into battle without proper support, and many of them have been killed. They say that the national guard forces and the regular army, the national guard forces include those Chechen units, that two of them are not coordinating on the field. And that the overall battle plan is somewhat disjointed in that it's partly a plan for war and partly a plan for peacekeeping and so-called denazification of this country. And it has led to a lack of cohesion. And a lot of this goes back to the man who's behind it all, Vladimir Putin, who I'm told is now increasingly isolated, is just taking advice from his inner circle, that there are only about three people who matter right now. And that speech, you mentioned it a short while ago, that Putin gave yesterday, bizarre location, speaking at Aeroflot, to a group of flight attendants. He sounded incredibly angry. He sounded detached. He was talking about how the Ukrainians here are machine-gunning people, that they're driving around in cars packed with explosives, jihadi-style. And he went very deep and repeatedly on this theme that they're fighting against the Nazis. It was the angriest I've ever seen him.

CHUCK TODD:

Richard Engel in Kyiv for us. Richard, a reminder that this is Putin's war more than it is Russia's war, at least right now. Joining me now to talk about the refugee crisis is Kelly Cobiella. She is in Medyka, the Medyka crossing on the Polish border with Ukraine. And Kelly, the enormous number of people crossing over. How's Poland going to be able to handle this? And are we going to see these refugees flown out to other countries because Poland can't absorb everybody that's coming over its border?

KELLY COBIELLA:

Yeah. I mean, Chuck, the numbers are just astounding. We saw it again yesterday from the Polish Border Guard. 129,000 people arriving in this country in one day. Most of them are women and children. They're arriving with nothing. They need a tremendous amount of support, not just in food, medicine, a place to rest, a place to live, but also emotional support. A lot of them are deeply traumatized by what they've been through. The volunteer groups who have been organizing the response over the past nine days or so say they are now starting to get overwhelmed. Just when they catch their breath from a wave of refugees coming across, there's another day and another wave. And people really are determined to get here, Chuck. We spoke to a family just a few minutes ago who arrived today. They arrived from Kharkiv. They said they were waiting on a train station. They saw what they thought was a missile strike, and nobody dove for cover because they were that desperate to get a spot on the train. These people are still in disbelief as to how they've ended up here. One woman I asked, you know, "What do you need most?" And she said, "I need the war to end so I can go home." Chuck.

CHUCK TODD:

Kelly Cobiella in Poland for us. Kelly, just a reminder, three weeks ago these people were living very first-world lives.

CHUCK TODD:

And joining me now from Moldova is Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Secretary Blinken, welcome back to Meet the Press.

SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:

Thanks, Chuck.

CHUCK TODD:

I want to start with some of the asks that President Zelenskyy made of Congress yesterday morning here, our time, and I assume he made some similar asks in his phone call with President Biden. We've got a bullet points here, the no-fly zone, more planes, drones and lethal aid, a full ban on Russian oil imports, and to terminate Russia's preferential trading status. I want to set aside the no-fly zone situation here for a minute. Let's start with planes. It seems that we're close, this idea of essentially U.S. fighter jets to Poland, in exchange Poland sends Russian-made jets to Ukraine. Is that going to happen? And how quickly can it happen?

SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:

Well, first, let me say this, President Zelenskyy's been a remarkable leader. He's been the embodiment of the Ukrainian people and everything they're doing to resist this, this Russian aggression. And President Biden's in regular contact with him, as he was just yesterday. On this question of planes, yes, we're talking very actively about this, looking at what we could do to backfill Poland. If it chooses to send the MiGs and the Su-planes that it has to Ukraine, how we can help by backfilling what they're giving to the Ukrainians. So that's in very active discussion as we speak.

CHUCK TODD:

You said if, if Poland – that's a Polish decision, not a NATO decision?

SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:

It's a, it’s a sovereign decision by Poland. If they choose to do it, we want to make sure that we can help them and, again, backfill what they're giving so that they don't have any loss in their own ability --

CHUCK TODD:

So we are 100% –

SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:

– to provide security –

CHUCK TODD:

– going to do this. If any of these NATO nations that have these Russian-made planes donate them to the Ukraine, Ukraine, we're going to backfill, if they're a NATO ally.

SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:

Well, look, we got to – we'd have to work through each case on its, on its own merits. Got to make sure we're able to do something if that's what a country's requesting in return for, for sharing the jets that they have.

CHUCK TODD:

Let's start with the ban on oil imports. I know as late as last week, there was still – the administration was saying, "No, we can't do the 100% ban." Has your mind changed? Has the administration's mind changed on this? Are you looking at a full embargo on Russian and gas – Russian gas and oil?

SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:

Chuck, I spoke to the president and the Cabinet, the leading members of the Cabinet, about this just yesterday from Europe. And we are now in very active discussions with our European partners about banning the, the import of Russian oil to our countries while, of course, at the same time, maintaining a steady global supply of oil. The actions we've taken to date have already had a devastating impact on the Russian economy. We see the ruble in free-fall, we see the economy heading into a deep recession. We've already had a major impact. But, we are looking, again, as we speak, in coordination with our allies and partners, at this process of banning oil imports.

CHUCK TODD:

So, it's interesting you added the “in coordination.” We will not do this unilaterally. The United States is not going to do this unilaterally?

SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:

A hallmark of everything we've done to date has been this coordination with allies and partners. We are much more effective across the board when we're doing things together in as close a coordination as possible. There are instances where we each do something a little bit different, but it complements the whole. So in the first instance, we want to make sure that we're acting in coordination. I'm not going to rule out taking action one way or another, irrespective of what they do, but everything we've done, the approach starts with coordinating with allies and partners.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, and another way of ratcheting things up on the Russians is Zelenskyy suggested terminating Russia's preferential trading status, most favored nation status. Is that something we're considering?

SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:

Look, Chuck, let me say this, there are a series of things that are out there that we're looking at to continue to ratchet up the pressure on Vladimir Putin for the purposes of getting him to end this aggression against Ukraine, to stop this war, to stop the killing, to stop the suffering. And there are, as I said, extraordinary measures that we've already taken. We said many months ago when all of this started and we warned that Putin was threatening this aggression, we said if he pursued it, there would be massive consequences for Russia. And we've delivered on that, on that promise. You see it again in everything that's happening to the Russian economy. But if there are things that remain to do to increase the pressure if he's unwilling to stop the aggression, we're going to do them. So we will look at each and every one, decide together with our allies and partners what's most effective, when we should do it, and we'll proceed, we’ll proceed in that way.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, I want to talk about the no-fly zone. Let me quote President Zelenskyy on Telegram on Friday. He essentially sent this out on social media, "All the people who will die starting this die will also die because of you." He's addressing the west. "Because of your weakness, because of your disunity. Today, the Alliance’s leadership gave the greenlight for further bombing of Ukrainian cities by refusing to make a no-fly zone." I understand it's an emotional statement. Right? And I understand you've had different conversations there. Why rule out the no-fly zone? Why not make Putin think it's possible?

SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:

First, again, my admiration for President Zelenskyy has no bounds. And if I were in his shoes, I'd be asking and looking for everything possible from everyone in every place around the world. And as I said, what we've already done is extraordinary. And just to remind people, over the past year alone, from the United States alone, more than $1 billion in security assistance. Lethal defensive weapons that are being put to very effective service by Ukrainians now in defense of their country. And other measures that we're looking at going forward. Just in the last week alone, Chuck, we have delivered more than $200 million worth of security assistance into the hands of Ukrainians. So all of that is ongoing, all of that's continuing. The president's been very clear about one thing all along as well, which is we're not going to put the United States in direct conflict with Russia, not have, you know, American planes flying against Russian planes or our soldiers on the ground in Ukraine because for everything we're doing for Ukraine, the president also has a responsibility to not get us into a direct conflict, a direct war with Russia, a nuclear power, and risk a war that expands even beyond Ukraine to Europe. That's clearly not our interest. What we're trying to do is end this war in Ukraine, not start a larger one.

CHUCK TODD:

Let me ask you this –

SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:

And by the way –

CHUCK TODD:

– at this point –

SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:

– keep in mind, again, keep in mind what a no-fly zone – just so people understand too what a no-fly zone means, it means that if you declare a space no-fly, and a Russian plane flies through it, it means we have to shoot it down.

CHUCK TODD:

Let me ask the question this way, we're getting towards the end of the second week of this conflict. Can this still end diplomatically with Vladimir Putin in charge of Russia?

SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:

You know, how this ends is, is an important question. And I wish that we could see signs that President Putin was willing to engage diplomatically to bring this aggression to a close. Right now, we're not seeing them. He was on the phone, President Putin, with President Macron of France, a couple of days ago. And by all accounts, according to the French, he's digging in and doubling down. And I think we have to be ready that this could go on for some while. The sheer force that Russia can bring to bear, the manpower, the expanse of its military, has the potential to keep grinding down these incredibly brave and resilient Ukrainians. But here's the thing, winning a battle is not winning a war. Taking a city is not taking the hearts and minds of Ukrainians. And what we've learned over the past couple of weeks is that they will fight to the end for their country, and if it takes a week, if it takes a month, if it takes a year. And he has no plan, Putin, for how this actually ends on his terms. He can't impose his will and Russia's will on 45 million Ukrainians. They've clearly demonstrated that. But it may take some considerable time to play out. We want it to end as quickly as possible, with Ukraine having its independence, its territorial integrity, its sovereignty. But I think we need to be prepared for this going on for some time.

CHUCK TODD:

Secretary Antony Blinken, I know you're busy, I know you've got yet another plane to catch. Thanks for coming and sharing your perspective with us.

SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:

Thank you, Chuck.

CHUCK TODD:

You got it.

SEC. ANTONY BLINKEN:

Good to be with you.

CHUCK TODD:

And joining me now is Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia. He, of course, chairs the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. Senator Manchin, welcome back to Meet –

SEN. JOE MANCHIN:

Good to be with you.

CHUCK TODD:

– the Press.

SEN. JOE MANCHIN:

Good to be with you, Chuck.

CHUCK TODD:

Look, you were on this Zoom with President Zelenskyy yesterday. Before I get into the details, just, you know, what was that like with him? What, what, what did he say to you guys?

SEN. JOE MANCHIN:

It was so surreal. But to have a person on the front -- on the front lines, taking mortars every day and basically seeing his people being slaughtered, and willing to withstand all of this and fight back and all he asks for is basically, "Just help me. I'll fight my own fight, just give me the tools to do it." And for us to hesitate -- or anyone to hesitate in the free world is wrong. And he said that. He said, "Listen, if Ukraine falls, then Europe may fall." Where do you want to –

CHUCK TODD:

What does that mean for you? Are you right now -- would you support a no-fly zone?

SEN. JOE MANCHIN:

I support --

CHUCK TODD:

Do you support doing this, which could trigger a wider conflict?

SEN. JOE MANCHIN:

I understand that. But right now, you don't signal to your -- to the nemesis of Putin -- this is Putin's war. This is not the Russian people's war. This is Putin's war and his quest for whatever it may be. But to take anything off the table thinking we might not be able to use things because we've already taken them off the table is wrong. I would take nothing off the table, but I would let -- be very clear that we're going to support the Ukrainian people, the Ukrainian president and this government in every way humanly possible. Zelenskyy was very clear. He said, "We don't need you to fight our fight. We don't need you to fly our planes or fly your planes into our warzone. We need planes that we can fly ourselves, and we have them on the border."

CHUCK TODD:

Right, you heard Secretary Blinken, that deal seems to be at least –

SEN. JOE MANCHIN:

I think –

CHUCK TODD:

– in motion.

SEN. JOE MANCHIN:

I hope it's very quickly –

CHUCK TODD:

Right? The trading of jets with the Pols, in particular.

SEN. JOE MANCHIN:

Absolutely.

CHUCK TODD:

Correct?

SEN. JOE MANCHIN:

We need to backfill that.

CHUCK TODD:

All right, on the oil and gas embargo, you heard the secretary's answer. Basically, he's saying, "Yes, we're in favor of it if the entire alliance does it too." Which sounds like there isn’t interest in doing it unilaterally. Is there a majority support in Congress for it unilaterally?

SEN. JOE MANCHIN:

I believe. And I would say this, the people in my state of West Virginia, believe it's basically foolish for us to keep buying products and giving profit and giving money to Putin to be able to use against the Ukrainian people. That's exactly what he's doing. So why wouldn't we lead? Why wouldn't we show the resolve we have? I understand there's more dependency in the world. But you know, here's the problem, we have the ability to ratchet up and be able to backfill. We have the energy, we have the resources here. And we have the technology. We're a million barrels short a day right now that we could just ramp up like that. We can do certain things. And we don't have to put any more pain on the American people who are already suffering with inflation now. But I believe the American people would, basically pay, if they had to, seeing that they're saving freedom and saving lives of people, innocent people.

CHUCK TODD:

We've seen some polling that indicates that for now –

SEN. JOE MANCHIN:

That's a difficult one.

CHUCK TODD:

– okay, now let's see what happens when it's $5 gas.

SEN. JOE MANCHIN:

Well, look at the gas now, $4. It wasn't because of this. Inflation's already wreaked havoc on it now. And basically, we're going to say we're going to step back now because we're afraid it might go up a little bit more? It might go up anyway, and we haven't done nothing. I'm willing to at least do something and say whatever it would take, we're going to ramp up our energy, we're going to basically produce the oil, the natural gas, build the pipelines. We've been stymied. We're not getting anything done from the standpoint of energy. We can do both, Chuck. We can do the energy that we need as far as in this fossil world that we live in, and do it cleaner than anybody else in the world and innovation. But we can also transition to a cleaner technology.

CHUCK TODD:

Now is this the price of your involvement in new talks on a reconciliation bill with Democrats and with the president? Meaning, like, look, you've, you’ve sort of outlined some, some some top lines here. You said you need to lower the deficit, I'd like to do prescription drugs and if there's anything else left, then maybe we can talk about other things. But you also have had a big circle around energy independence there. You want to see an increase in energy production before you'll sit down with Biden?

SEN. JOE MANCHIN:

Let me say, the most important thing and the thing that I'm worried about every day is inflation right now. It's affecting every West Virginian and every American that I know of, has basically told me the high prices they're paying, they can't, they sustain. And it's hurting the people that need it the most, people that are working like the dickens, trying to make a living. They need help. So inflation's the number one thing. Basically, supporting Ukraine and saving freedom and democracy around the world, because it will permeate if we don't stop it. Next of all, we can do all of this. Okay? But you've got to get your financial house in order. My grandfather always said, "Joe," he said, "Unmanaged debt will make cowardly decisions out of you. You'll make a cowardly decision." We've got to get that under control.

CHUCK TODD:

Is this war in Europe – make it harder to do this deal with the president or easier?

SEN. JOE MANCHIN:

I think it makes it more realistic. This is, this is the real world. We keep talking – there’s aspirational things we want to do, whether it's the far left, far right, whatever it may be. Forget about the aspirational. We're living in a real world. Global climate is global. It's not North American, it's not United States only. It's global. And we have to look at this, the global, what we can do. Our energy that we produce in America is better and cleaner than any place else in the world. So anything that we backfill is going to be better than what they produce. The gas from L&G that we can send over, expanding the ports, we've got basically requests for permits that are still standing and we haven't given. We need to do that. We’ve got pipeline – I've got a Mountain Valley pipeline in the state of West Virginia, that takes – it will take two BCF, two billion cubic feet a day, into the marketplace immediately. And you know what --

CHUCK TODD:

What do you say to those –

SEN. JOE MANCHIN:

– it's 95% done. I can't get it done.

CHUCK TODD:

– what do you say those that say if we continue to expand fossil fuel infrastructure, like pipelines like that, it just makes it harder for us to get to clean –

SEN. JOE MANCHIN:

Let me just tell one thing, they said the pipelines. Those can eventually transition into hydrogen pipelines. We can do so much with that, it's a clean technology that we're going for. It's almost like if you don't stop this, you won't do this. That's not right, Chuck.

CHUCK TODD

Alright, who are you negotiating with? The president or Senator Schumer?

SEN. JOE MANCHIN

There’s no formal talks going on right now, I can assure you. Basically, everybody talks. I talk to everybody, you know that.

CHUCK TODD:

You threw it out there and is it up to others to come to you?

SEN. JOE MANCHIN:

I’m just saying, get your financial house in order. There's only one thing all Democrats voted, we voted against the 2017 Republican tax cuts. We thought they were weighted unfairly. If you have one thing that you're all united on, fix it.

CHUCK TODD:

Senator Joe Manchin, Democrat of West Virginia, appreciate you coming in.

SEN. JOE MANCHIN:

Thanks, Chuck. Good to be with you.

CHUCK TODD:

Thank you, sir. When we come back, we're going to talk with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. She's a possible 2024 presidential candidate. She's been a bit critical of President Biden's handling of this war so far. Stay with us.

CHUCK TODD:

Welcome back. Nikki Haley spent six years as governor of South Carolina and nearly two more as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under former President Trump. She is often mentioned as a possible running mate in 2024, or a presidential candidate herself. Ambassador Haley, welcome back to Meet the Press.

NIKKI HALEY:

Thanks so much. Thanks for having me on.

CHUCK TODD:

Let me start with the last question I asked Secretary Blinken, which was simply can this crisis be brought to an end with Putin still in power in Russia?

NIKKI HALEY:

Well, I think that, you know, Putin's going to try. I mean this is going to be – he's going to drag this out as long as he can. He's committed. He is an evil tyrant that we see is not going to stop until he can form the Soviet empire. He has – what we have learned, and the lesson in all of this, is when tyrants speak, we should listen. He said he was going to take Ukraine, he is. China said that they were going to take Hong Kong, they did. He said that he wants to take Poland and the Baltics. We should believe him. China has said they're going to take Taiwan next. We should be ready for that. Iran says they want to destroy Israel. Every time a tyrant speaks, we need to remember they've told us, we need to listen.

CHUCK TODD:

You sound like somebody then that would be in favor of a no-fly zone over Ukraine right now. Is that how – if Putin is what you describe him as, what has – I guess what guardrails should we be putting on the NATO alliance right now?

NIKKI HALEY:

No, I'm not in favor of a no-fly zone right now. What I am in favor of is the Biden administration stepping up and doing the things that will matter. We know that the one thing that punches Putin in the gut is to hit his energy sector. There is no reason we should be taking money from an enemy. We should go ahead and sanction all of those energy companies right now. We should remove him from the international banking system. We should be coordinating intelligence in real time with the Ukrainians. We should be leading with NATO, telling them to give the planes to Ukraine. We should be making sure that we're moving forward on giving them the missiles they need. They still – they have said that they don't have what they need. They need javelins, they need stingers, they need anti-air and anti-tank missiles to be able to do this. We've got to give it to them. We should have done all this before Putin did his first move. We were late to the game. We're still late to the game. It's not too late now. But we've got to get on the ball.

CHUCK TODD:

Well, one could argue that there's been 20 years of appeasing Putin. That there was this belief that he could be part of the world order. Was that a mistake from the get-go?

NIKKI HALEY:

No. I've always said that you cannot trust Russia. You cannot trust Putin. You can't trust Xi. You can't trust China. This is – it's common sense. I've dealt with them at the United Nations. You never negotiate, you never deal with your enemies. You can't trust them. And that's why I was mortified that Biden went so far as asking China for help with Russia. I mean, you never ask an enemy for help with another enemy. I never told China anything that I didn't want Russia to know. Because you know how they coordinate. It's the same reason why it's unthinkable that Biden would be coordinating or even thinking of getting back into the Iran deal with the Russians and Chinese at the table. Why are we negotiating and trusting enemies? You don't do that. That's the first start to being strong in America is understand who your enemies are and make sure that you let them know that you understand them.

CHUCK TODD:

So, you treat – you would not – there's one thing that you would treat China as an enemy, not as a rival, if you will. You wouldn't work with them diplomatically at all if you were in charge right now?

NIKKI HALEY:

Do you know what – I mean, China right now has coordinated with Russia. When Biden went and told China what was going on and asked for help with Russia, what did China do? China ran and told Russia. I watched at the United Nations, those two countries are getting incredibly close. They don't like each other. They don't trust each other. But they both want to destroy the West. Why are we waiting for that to happen? China, when they take Taiwan, this is going to blow up. Right now, Taiwan's manufacturing half of the semiconductor chips. What do Americans use? They use their phones, they use their computers, they drive cars. All of that will be disrupted. Why are we relying on China to give us medical supplies when we saw how they handled Covid in the world? We've got to wake up. America has to wake up. And we have to start being smart to deal with these tyrants. We can't let them continue to run all over us.

CHUCK TODD:

Let me play something here that Vice President Pence, the former vice president said on Friday, I'm curious of your reaction to it. He said, "There is no room in this party for apologists for Putin. There is only room for champions of freedom." As you know, there's been some flirtations on the right with some – with Putin. Although, ever since he actually invaded, some of those folks have taken some of those things back. For those that have said nice things about Putin, including your former boss, President Trump, what do you say to them?

NIKKI HALEY:

Well, first, I'll tell you my very first speech at the United Nations was in support of Ukraine and hitting Russia. Protocol at the United Nations was to meet with the Russian ambassador first. And I purposely threw protocol out the window and met with the Ukrainian ambassador first. Putin is an evil tyrant. He has proven that whether he tries to poison his political opponents, whether he shoots down planes, whether he assists Assad with chemical weapons in Syria. He has shown us time and time again that he is evil. What I will tell you about President Trump is as much as everybody wants to talk about what he says, what I look at is what he did. He sanctioned Russia. He expelled diplomats. He shut off Nord Stream 2, which is all Putin ever wanted. He built up our military. And he made us energy independent. All of those things countered Putin and countered Russia. This never would have happened under Trump. What we have to look at now is how do we make sure this doesn't go further under Biden? This has been a terrible mistake that all started with Afghanistan. And one thing after the other, we've done nothing but show weakness. We have got to show strength. So what I would say is you can talk about past presidents all you want, but, you know, the last thing you need to be doing is looking for the TV remote when your house is burning down.

CHUCK TODD:

Now, I understand that –

NIKKI HALEY:

We've got to start dealing with the situation at hand.

CHUCK TODD:

But, ambassador, you sort of imply that it was Biden's weakness on Afghanistan. But, I mean, the Trump administration, Trump personally tried to roll back sanctions on Russia in 2017. He did – they tried to lobby Congress to weaken Russian sanctions and legislation in 2017. He tried to remove sanctions on a Russian oligarch company in 2018. Delayed chemical weapon sanctions that were required by law against Russia. And let's not forget, holding Ukrainian military aid hostage for a political stunt. How did – you don't think any of those things --

NIKKI HALEY:

You know --

CHUCK TODD:

– sent a message to Vladimir Putin that America is divided, the West is divided and he can get away with whatever he wants?

NIKKI HALEY:

You said it in every one of those things. You kept saying, “He tried.” All I know is what he did. And I was personally there at the United Nations when he got out of the Iran deal, when he sanctioned Putin, when he expelled diplomats, when he refused Nord Stream 2 pipeline. So I watched what he did. He did more – he did stronger things against Russia than Republican or Democrat presidents before him. I mean, this was something that Putin knew not to mess with the United States. Putin needs to know that again. We need to start standing up. Why are we even ho-humming around the fact that we're still taking Russian oil? Why are we doing that? Why would we take money from – from evil dictators? You never sleep with the devil because then the devil owns you. The Europeans are finding that out right now. We need to be smarter than that.

CHUCK TODD:

Ambassador Haley, I appreciate you coming on, sharing your perspective with us. And I hope to have you on again. Very quickly, does Donald Trump's 2024 plans impact your 2024 plans?

NIKKI HALEY:

I have said that if President Trump runs, I will not run.

CHUCK TODD:

Fair enough. Ambassador, thanks for coming on, appreciate it.

NIKKI HALEY:

Thanks so much.

CHUCK TODD:

When we come back, I'm going to talk to experts on Russia and the military about where the war may be headed and how the West can help Ukraine. Stick with us.

CHUCK TODD:

Welcome back. Western nations have rejected Volodymyr Zelenskyy's call for a no-fly zone over Ukraine. In a Zoom call yesterday with some 300 U.S. lawmakers, Zelenskyy also said a ban on purchasing Russian oil would have greater impact than other economic sanctions. So as we did last week, we've brought together a couple of experts to discuss the war and its implications. Admiral James Stavridis is a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, and Fiona Hill was President Trump's Chief Advisor on Russia. She's also the author of There is Nothing For You Here: Finding Opportunity in the 21st Century, sort of a memoir-ish of your time, U.K. Fiona Hill, I want to start very quickly. I want you to respond to Ambassador Haley in what she said about the Trump administration's record on Russian sanctions. She kept saying, "Well, you noted he tried." How would you describe his efforts when it comes punishing Russia, versus the administration's?

FIONA HILL:

Well, certainly, there was an awful lot done by the administration, also by Congress and by Ambassador Haley herself at the United Nations. But I think there's just the one point that sums everything up that you yourself touched on is that President Trump at a pretty critical period, withheld military assistance to Ukraine that was desperate for it at that particular junction, basically to get Volodymyr Zelenskyy to do him a personal favor.

CHUCK TODD:

And what message does that send to Putin?

FIONA HILL:

Well, that sends a message to Putin that Ukraine is a play thing for him, and for himself as well, and for the United States. And that nobody's really serious about protecting Ukraine. And that was ultimately a sign of weakness. It’s our political divisions, our parties are infighting, which was on full display there, that Putin I think is quite shocked now that we've got some collective action together.

CHUCK TODD:

Admiral, I want you to listen to Kira Rudyk. She's a Ukrainian member of Parliament, and this is her plea when it came to the no-fly zone. Take a listen.

[BEGIN TAPE]

KIRA RUDYK:

We all know that also, the next step that we see is a no-fly zone over Ukraine. And I know that everybody is saying, "No, no, no. The third World War will start." I will be very blunt with you: It has already started.

[END TAPE]

CHUCK TODD:

All right. We have the map up. Logistically, how doable is this, and why are so many folks in the United States adamant about not even attempting it?

ADM. JAMES STAVRIDIS:

Let me start with the back end because I think it's really the important question. It's quite obvious that if we put U.S. NATO jets in the air enforcing a no-fly zone, they'll be going nose to nose with Russian fighter aircraft. Down that path, the potential for miscalculation and a war between NATO and Russia and a war between Russia and the United States rises significantly.

Look, I implemented a no-fly zone. I know how to do this. I did it in Libya in 2011. Can we do it? Sure. Should we? Not yet. But final point, Chuck. What we ought to do is give the Ukrainians the ability to create a no-fly zone. More stingers, more missiles that can go higher than stingers. And above all, consummate this fighter deal. Get those MiG-29s in their hands.

CHUCK TODD:

Do our NATO allies that have these Russian jets have enough of them to give the Ukrainians a chance at air superiority?

ADM. JAMES STAVRIDIS:

Yes.

CHUCK TODD:

Wow.

ADM. JAMES STAVRIDIS:

And by the way, take a look at NATO combat aircraft. We have over 25,000. Russian combat aircraft, around 5,000. We outnumber them five to --

CHUCK TODD:

Wow.

ADM. JAMES STAVRIDIS:

– one as an alliance. Hey, we outspend them 15 to one. We outnumber them in ground troops four to one. He's not going to cross a NATO border in anger. But we ought to do all that we can to support the Ukrainians.

CHUCK TODD:

Fiona Hill, the tweet heard around the world was the Lindsey Graham tweet having to do with the idea that, hey, somebody's got to take him out. Frankly, it's something that plenty of people have talked about. Admiral Stavridis and I talked about the Julius Cesar solution on a podcast a couple weeks ago. Do you expect Putin to lead Russia if we some – if this war ends?

FIONA HILL:

Look, I think we've got to be very careful for the same reasons that Admiral Stavridis is talking about, taking extreme care with the no-fly zone, about this kind of talk right now because one of the reasons that Vladimir Putin is engaging in this appalling behavior in Ukraine is because he's worried about his own position. He has to be reelected, in theory, and also in practice in 2024. So we're running up until his own presidential time clock here. If he fails and looks weak, it's disastrous at home, not just abroad. And any kind of loose talk about somebody taking him out, regime change, he believes that we're in that business anyway. He looks at what the United States has done, and he says it openly all the time, in Libya, in Iraq, in Afghanistan, and many other places where we've intervened. And he looks at that and he thinks, "I'm not going to let that happen here in Russia." He's extremely paranoid about this. And one of the reasons that he wants to destroy Ukraine is because he thinks that we would use it, because he was --

CHUCK TODD:

That Ukraine would be --

FIONA HILL:

– thinking about using it --

CHUCK TODD:

– the launching pad?

FIONA HILL:

– as a launching pad for something like this. We have to be extraordinarily cautious about how we talk about this conflict. We need to stop the war in Ukraine, but we have to be very careful about talking about war with Russia, regime change, about these other things because then he absolutely will double down further.

CHUCK TODD:

And yet, Jim, how does this end with him in power?

ADMIRAL JAMES STAVRIDIS:

I think it's increasingly hard to see that, simply because the behavior we're seeing are war crimes. Let's call it what it is. When you fire artillery into residential areas, when you bomb civilians, when you attack a nuclear power plant, you are committing war crimes. And increasingly, that is going to have to be taken into account as this ends. How does it end? Let's look back at the Balkans. I think if we look back in history, we had similar kind of situations, differences, but similar in the 1990’s--

CHUCK TODD:

We were never going to go in though. And eventually --

ADMIRAL JAMES STAVRIDIS:

And --

CHUCK TODD:

– we went in. I mean, I was just going to say, I've been thinking about that a lot. We said we weren't going to go in. I remember all of those pledges. And we couldn’t stand watching this humanitarian crisis.

ADMIRAL JAMES STAVRIDIS:

And, Chuck --

CHUCK TODD:

And we intervened.

ADMIRAL JAMES STAVRIDIS:

– this is precisely what's unfolding. And maybe the biggest weapon we have is truth, is showing the Russians what their leader is creating in their name.

CHUCK TODD:

But will the Russians see the truth?

FIONA HILL:

Well, what we're going to have to do is to try to keep on basically pushing this at every possible juncture that we can. Look, there are an awful lot of Russian oligarchs, business people out there whose assets are being seized, which can be used, in fact, to try to support the Ukrainians, for example. But we've got to really work on the broader world of public opinion in the United Nations. We've got to get the Chinese. I know we've got a lot of skepticism about that, but Indians and others who've been, you know, basically sitting on the fence to try to push this too, because this is an atrocity that the whole world can't basically stand by and watch, so that's where we're going to have to focus for right now to see what we can do to get this to stop.

CHUCK TODD:

Admiral Stavridis and Fiona Hill, thank you both.

ADMIRAL JAMES STAVRIDIS:

Thanks.

CHUCK TODD:

Really --

FIONA HILL:

Thank you.

CHUCK TODD:

– really helpful.

FIONA HILL:

Thanks so much.

CHUCK TODD:

When we come back, the government reported robust job growth last month, but watch out for those up and down revisions. Boy, are they coming, trust me. Stay with us.

CHUCK TODD:

Welcome back, Data Download time. Friday's February jobs numbers provided some much needed good news on the economic front for the Biden administration, the country crushed expectations by adding 678,000 jobs in February. But how real is this February figure? Well, we may have to wait and see what the revised numbers look like next month. Because guess what? In 2021 we saw a lot of monthly numbers revised dramatically. Let me show you. Last year we had three months where you had massive downgrade revisions. March 200,000, in June nearly 300,000 and in July nearly 250,000. Look at those. And we also had massive upgrades. In January of 2021 almost half a million upgrade, in November another almost half a million upgrade, you throw in there and December a 400,000 upgrade. In total, in 2021, they had to revise, if you took all the revisions into the one thing, they were short, essentially 1.4 million total jobs. A lot of this is pandemic driven. But a lot of this is a reminder these monthly jobs report, it's a poll folks. It too has a margin of error. When we come back, has the war in Ukraine changed the trajectory of the Biden presidency? Our panel is next.

CHUCK TODD:

Welcome back. Panel is with us. Our senior Washington correspondent here at NBC, Hallie Jackson; Eddie Glaude Jr. of Princeton University; Stephen Hayes, the founder of The Dispatch; and Robin Wright, contributing writer and columnist for The New Yorker. All right. I will quickly show some Biden poll numbers here, but I actually want to focus a little bit more on the war. But we're seeing here Hallie, very quickly, one poll, the first one fully after invasion. I don't think this is a State of the Union bounce. This appears to be the first of what could be the rally around the flag.

HALLIE JACKSON:

The post-Ukraine, right.

CHUCK TODD:

Post-Ukraine, job approval rating almost above water. His approval on the handling of Ukraine now above water. Again, could be an outlier. But we may be in the middle of a shift in politics with it being driven by Ukraine.

HALLIE JACKSON:

Based on what we're seeing on the international realm. I think you're right. It's one data point. We need more, right, before we start to extrapolate from it. Obviously, I think this is something, the White House is not unhappy to see these numbers, although it's not their primary focus. The thing that has struck me is the way that what has happened in Ukraine, and we talked about this a little bit, is penetrating to people who might not otherwise care about political issues, right? This is something – the images, it is visceral. It is, you know, front of every single newspaper, even local papers and national newscasts every single morning and every single night. This is a different level than when we talk about some of the other internal political domestic agenda stuff that I think folks sometimes get a little bit lost in. I do think you're right. It feels to me more post-Ukraine than it does State of the Union bounce. And we'll see how the other ones come out.

CHUCK TODD:

State of the Union. Is anybody writing about it this morning? It is sort of, you know, amazingly lost. Robin, I was intrigued by the conversation I had with Admiral Stavridis about the Balkans because, you know, I remember in 1994, 1995, you know, we weren't going to go in with Kosovo and Serbia. We weren't going to do certain things. And the pictures changed public opinion. To Hallie's point, I mean, the world may push us to do a no-fly zone.

ROBIN WRIGHT:

For the moment, that's not going to happen.

CHUCK TODD:

I agree.

ROBIN WRIGHT:

There are too many calculations. Russia's war has never been just about Ukraine. It was always about the competition with the West. This is the one big question, of course, is where does Putin stop? And does he push, whether covertly or overtly, beyond Ukraine? I think that's where you might see the United States taking a stronger position, setting up the kind of defensive mechanisms, you know, challenging militarily any kind of Putin aggression. For now, they're not going to do that. But I think the real question is can you change the balance of power in the air? And if you can do that, suddenly, you change the dynamics across the board, whether it's giving Ukrainians fighters so that they can take on those convoys we see outside of Kyiv, or whether it's providing stingers and javelins. That's really the critical next step.

CHUCK TODD:

I see.

STEPHEN HAYES:

Yeah, I mean, I think the question is: Is the administration doing everything it can do? And this goes back to the public opinion question. People will be favorable to the Biden administration, if there's the impression, as we watch this play out on our screens, on our phones, that the Biden administration is really doing everything it can. And I think there's a growing sense that they're not. If you look at what President Biden said on February 24th when he announced this to the world, said, "We are going to do something. We are going to be tough," he said, "Russia will be an international pariah, a pariah on the international stage." We're dealing with Russia on the Iran Deal. We're dealing with Russia on climate. The State Department has given guidance that our diplomats can continue to deal with Russia. They're not a pariah. This is what happened after 2014. We said, "Russia will be isolated." Russia wasn't isolated. We need to do more.

CHUCK TODD:

It does seem as if – it’s interesting. Is this Putin's war or Russia's war, right? And I do think there are some that are trying to create, "Hey, let's not punish the Russian people," but I don't know if you can do that anymore.

EDDIE GLAUDE JR.:

Well, it's going to be difficult, right? War is war. I mean, we need to be very clear about it. And whenever war happens, everyday, ordinary people who happen to live there will be affected, impacted, right? So it is also important I think to kind of think about that President Biden is also dealing with the coalition of folks that are impacting the kinds of decisions he makes. And we were lauding him, celebrating him for actually building that coalition in order to do what we've done so far. And that coalition also provides certain kinds of constraints, restraints. And it's one thing for us to kind of go it alone, but it's another thing to understand that this is in fact a war that impacts the very ways in which the West conceives of itself. So we can't just simply be out there doing --

STEPHEN HAYES:

Look, I give him credit--

EDDIE GLAUDE JR.:

--these things by ourselves there.

STEPHEN HAYES:

I think it was clever at the beginning for the Biden administration to go public as quickly as they did with the intelligence that we were gathering. It was a smart thing. I think it was effective not because it was a deterrent, but because it made clear that Vladimir Putin was lying about what he was about to do. But it also created this gap between what he was saying, what the president was saying, what the administration was saying in terms of the significance of this war, what it would likely mean, reshaping the way the western world operates, and what we were doing. We were late on sanctions. We didn't initially sanction Putin. We were late on SWIFT. We didn't send the arms before the war that we're now rushing into theater.

ROBIN WRIGHT:

The big thing --

HALLIE JACKSON:

To the point you’re making too. And because I think it’s important – I was so struck by Secretary Blinken. He clearly wanted to come out and make some news on the banning of Russian oil imports, right? That is the most that door has been --

CHUCK TODD:

But they didn't make the news.

HALLIE JACKSON:

– open. They didn't do it, but the door is open to it more than it's been. And it's been a shift from the White House thinking and the White House perspective.

CHUCK TODD:

Well, because Congress is going to pass this. He's not going to veto, he's not going to veto it. So he’s got to look like – they've got to come out in favor of it.

ROBIN WRIGHT:

But the question is: Are we just going to ban what the United States trades, or are we going to begin to sanction other countries and foreign companies that also do oil deals with the Russians? And if we don't take that second layer, the first layer's meaningless.

HALLIE JACKSON:

It's symbolic more than anything.

ROBIN WRIGHT:

It's symbolic.

HALLIE JACKSON:

Purely.

ROBIN WRIGHT:

But remember, last year Putin made almost $120 billion off energy when the price of oil was under $70. Now, it's $115. It could go to $150. And look, that there’s still – even as we sanction him on oil, the rest of the world is still buying.

STEPHEN HAYES:

But to your point earlier, the question about where does he stop? We can affect where he stops if we do this first. The Treasury put out a statement on Friday saying, "Yeah. We're not basically going to ban these banks. We're trying to create clarity in our own markets on energy. We're not going to take these steps until the end of June." If we do this now, we can lead. We shouldn't be waiting to follow other people --

CHUCK TODD:

Should we take some solace in the effectiveness of the sanctions, that Putin's calling them a declaration of war? You know, I mean, meaning, like, oh--

HALLIE JACKSON:

They're getting through.

CHUCK TODD:

--these have really hit him this time. Yeah. This time, it hit him. It's clear all the other sanctions were never that effective. These are effective.

HALLIE JACKSON:

And what you hear her talking about, the no-fly zone. He's concerned about it enough to be able to say that, if that were to happen, it would be, you know, crossing a line essentially into what he would see as a direct confrontation. He's listening. And he knows what's happening internationally, right? There’s enormous – you could raise the question of the pressure on him at home, right, inside Russia, given what you started your show with today, Chuck, and the crackdown on reporting inside Russia.

CHUCK TODD:

But there is something going on in the Russian army that, at some point, we've got to figure out, Robin, how – can we harness this? Can we harness this clear – there’s something- they're not in on this.

ROBIN WRIGHT:

Chuck, how many movies have you seen about the plots against Adolf Hitler during World War II?

CHUCK TODD:

They don't work.

ROBIN WRIGHT:

And none of them worked.

CHUCK TODD:

I know that. I’m not, I didn’t say – I wasn't going there all the way.

ROBIN WRIGHT:

And so sure, there's likely to be some discontent. I mean, these are a lot of conscripts. They don't know what they're doing. They're lost. I don't think any time soon we're likely to see any kind of challenge, whether it's by the people or by the military that changes Putin.

CHUCK TODD:

Eddie, I want to talk – I joked about bringing up the State of the Union. It's, like, nobody else is talking about it. But if there was one thing that surprised me about the president's State of the Union, it was the lack of connecting the fight for democracy and freedom abroad with the fight for democracy at home. Today's Bloody Sunday, okay? In Selma – the vice president's there, going to march across the bridge, the second time without John Lewis. It feels odd not to have John Lewis there leading this. But were you surprised?

EDDIE GLAUDE JR.:

I was stunned. I mean, it was an easy kind of rhetorical move. Let's defend democracy abroad and secure democracy at home.

CHUCK TODD:

And politically helpful. I mean, I hate to be that crass about it but, right? It's an easy political --

EDDIE GLAUDE JR.:

And what would it mean to secure democracy at home? And you have to address the question of what's happening across the country in terms of the assault on voting rights. And we would also have to address the illiberal forces within our country that are driving the challenge to voting rights. So I didn't understand it. And I thought it was a mistake.

CHUCK TODD:

Well, and I think it's a way, you’ve got to – if we're going to get drawn in more, you've got to explain to the American people why this fight matters. Anyway, and that would've been one way. Thank you, guys. And before we go, quick programming note. My colleague, Lester Holt, had a fascinating interview with the former Attorney General Bill Barr. It airs tonight in a prime time special, NBC, at 9:00, 8:00 Central. That's all we have for today. Thank you for watching. Hang in there, Ukraine. Hang in there, President Zelenskyy. We'll be back next week because if it's Sunday, it's Meet the Press.