CHUCK TODD:
This Sunday: The final days.
PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
Florida is looking very good. North Carolina is looking very good. Ohio is looking beyond good.
JOE BIDEN:
It's enough. It's time to change.
CHUCK TODD:
President Trump and Joe Biden make their closing arguments.
PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
If we win, you’re going to see a stock market that's going to go like a rocket ship.
JOE BIDEN:
I know our people, and I know we can unite and heal this nation.
CHUCK TODD:
And go on the attack.
PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
Biden is the candidate of anarchists and rioters and looters and gun grabbers, flag burners.
JOE BIDEN:
We are done with the chaos, the tweets, the anger, the hate, the failure, the refusal to take any responsibility.
CHUCK TODD:
The president seeking re-election during the worst Covid outbreak yet --
NURSE:
It's killing me inside. I'm kind of -- I'm broken. I'm broken. And my colleagues are broken.
CHUCK TODD:
-- with cases now approaching 100,000 a day.
DR. ANTHONY FAUCI:
No matter how you look at it, it's not good news.
CHUCK TODD:
Plus, our final NBC News - Wall Street Journal poll just out on where the race stands with 48 hours to go. This morning, we'll get reports from our four battleground states that could decide who wins this election, from two experts on how safe your vote is and on the chances the election could be decided by lawsuits, and from our pollsters on the latest numbers and whether we could see another election night shocker. Joining me for insight and analysis are: NBC News White House correspondent Kristen Welker, NBC News Capitol Hill correspondent Kasie Hunt, , Rich Lowry, editor of National Review, and former Democratic senator of Missouri Claire McCaskill. Welcome to Sunday and a special election edition of Meet the Press.
ANNOUNCER:
From NBC News headquarters in New York, the longest-running show in television history. This is a special edition of Meet the Press with Chuck Todd.
CHUCK TODD:
Well, good Sunday morning from our election headquarters right here at Rockefeller Center in New York City. We are just two days before the strangest presidential election in our lifetimes, fought amid the deadliest pandemic in a century, will finally come to an end. Or will it? Yes, on Tuesday millions will go to the polls either to re-elect President Trump or make him a one-term president in favor of Joe Biden. Not only don't we know who's going to win but because nearly 92 million people so far -- a record -- have already voted and some battleground states count early votes very, very slowly and late, we don't know when we're going to know who's going to win. But here's what we do know: Our final NBC News - Wall Street Journal poll, completed overnight, shows Joe Biden leading President Trump by 10 points among registered voters, 52-42. That 10-point spread, that’s the biggest for any presidential candidate in our poll at this late stage since Bill Clinton’s re-election in 1996. And for those of you with dreams -- or nightmares -- about a 2016 repeat, it is worth noting that our last poll four years ago showed Hillary Clinton with a shrinking four-point lead -- it 44-40 on this morning four years ago. That was down from a 10 point lead and, more importantly, Clinton's 44 number left a whole lot of undecideds in a campaign where far fewer early votes had been banked. And remember, all of this is happening amid a coronavirus pandemic that has resulted in the US in more than nine million cases. It has taken 232,000 lives and counting so far and not only isn't it rounding the corner, it is at its highest peak yet. And with Midwestern battleground states being hit particularly hard in this moment. Yesterday, President Trump, Joe Biden and their running mates were all across the battleground making their closing arguments.
PRES DONALD TRUMP:
We win Pennsylvania we win it all, you know that right?
JOE BIDEN:
Here in Michigan, where the right to vote is the most fundamental right.
VICE PRES. MIKE PENCE:
The road to victory goes right through the Tar Heel state.
SEN. KAMALA HARRIS:
Florida is going to determine, in every way, who will be the next president.
PRES DONALD TRUMP:
If Biden wins, you're going to have a stock market collapse the likes of which you've never had.
JOE BIDEN:
He says he paid an income tax of $750 dollars. He knew how to game the system. Well guess what, mr. president. I'm coming for ya.
VICE PRES. MIKE PENCE:
Joe Biden says we're in for a long dark winter. President Trump said we're going to distribute the vaccine, we're going to defeat the virus.
BARACK OBAMA:
His closing argument this week is that the press and people are too focused on Covid. Covid, Covid, Covid he is complaining. He is jealous of Covid's media coverage.
CROWD:
Lock them up! Lock them up! Lock them up!
PRES DONALD TRUMP:
You're right. On that you're right. You know, there are a lot of people that call that treason. That's treason. Let's see what happens.
JOE BIDEN:
Everybody knows who Donald Trump is. Let's show them who we are.
CHUCK TODD:
This morning, we're going to take a look at four battleground states, all of which President Trump won in 2016 and all of which he'll likely have to win again if he wants to keep his job. We're going to begin with the mother of all battlegrounds, my home state of Florida, where presidential elections often are decided. Already more than eight million people have voted in Florida and today's a big last day of early vote. 2016, a total of 9.4 million people voted in state, so they may surpass that total today. Our latest NBC News/Marist poll out just days ago had Joe Biden with a narrow four-point lead in Florida, which we know can disappear immediately. Ellison Barber is standing by for us in Miami. And it is Miami-Dade, while not a swing county, it does seem to be the biggest battleground between the two campaigns.
ELLISON BARBER:
Hey, Chuck. Yeah, it is the last day of early voting here in Florida. We have an airplane flying over us. And if the polls are right, it is going to be another nail-biter in this state. We are in Miami-Dade County on the western side of the county at a polling site in Doral. We've spoken to independent voters here who say they have voted for former Vice President Joe Biden. We've spoken to Hispanic voters who say they voted for President Donald Trump. You can see right over here, this is the voting line. Normally, it would be a lot longer, but it's not that long right now, and that probably has a lot to do with the fact that over 60% of registered voters in Miami-Dade have already cast their ballots. If President Trump is going to win this state, he needs to cut into Biden's margin in Democratic stronghold counties, counties like Miami-Dade. His best hope for doing that is with the support of Cuban and Venezuelan American voters. Biden needs to get his supporters to the polls. Democrats are outpacing Republicans when it comes to absentee ballots in the state of Florida. But Florida Republicans are actually outpacing Democrats when it comes to in-person early voting. That was not the case in 2016. But today is “Souls to the Polls” and Democrats are hoping, praying if you will, that it will help them shift those early voting numbers. Chuck?
CHUCK TODD:
Ellison Barber in Miami-Dade for us. And it's a reminder, nobody ever wins Florida the same way twice. Up next, the bordering state of Georgia, a state Democrats have carried just once in the past nine presidential cycles, but where both parties, particularly in this last week, believe it's Biden that has the slight edge right now going into Election Day. Nearly four million votes have been cast so far in Georgia. It compares to just over four million votes that were cast all told four years ago. And the FiveThirtyEight.com polling average has Biden up by just a point and a half. And it makes Georgia a true toss up state. It is where we find Blayne Alexander. She is in Atlanta and really, it is about Atlanta turnout and the Atlanta suburbs. What do you tell us, Blayne?
BLAYNE ALEXANDER:
You know, Chuck, just the fact that we are even talking about the state of Georgia right now shows you just how much things have changed in this once reliably red state. You know, consider this. President Trump won the state of Georgia in 2016 by five points without making a single stop here once he became the party's official nominee.Well, now, we're seeing the president twice in the peach state in the final three weeks of this campaign, including a stop today. Now, on the Democratic side, we're seeing a stop from Senator Kamala Harris also today. Tomorrow, former President Barack Obama will be in Atlanta, and all of this, of course, comes on the heels of Joe Biden's appearance here just last week. So Chuck, in addition to all of these closing arguments though, we are going to be watching closely to see exactly how Georgia actually handles this election. Remember, the last time we saw Georgians head to the polls was during the June primary. That's when we saw people waiting in line outside, at times in the rain for hours to cast their ballot. And many of the early voters that I spoke to this time around say that was a big reason that they came out early this time. That, coupled with Stacey Abrams' narrow defeat for governor back in 2018, they say that they want to make sure that there's enough time to troubleshoot, as they say. To make sure that if they come into any issues with technology or long lines, to be able to work that out and have their vote count. Now, Chuck, as if all of that wasn't enough, this year, Georgia has not one, but two U.S. Senate seats up for grabs. And Democrats are hoping to flip them both. Chuck.
CHUCK TODD:
Blayne Alexander, I'll tell you, if Georgia does turn blue, I had somebody say, "It is not hype. Stacey Abrams will deserve the credit there." Anyway, something to watch for Tuesday night. Let's move up the Atlantic coast. We're going to turn to North Carolina, which Democrats have won just once since Jimmy Carter took it in 1976. At this point, more than four million people have already voted in North Carolina. It's not far off from the 4.7 million votes that were cast in total in the state four years ago. In fact, when all of today's totals are put in, it's likely North Carolina will have already passed that total. Now, our last NBC News/Marist poll had Biden leading President Trump by six points among likely voters. It was a big spread, but we're seeing late here that a few other polls are finding similar results. Morgan Radford is standing by in Charlotte, North Carolina. So Morgan, does Joe Biden have momentum here at the end?
MORGAN RADFORD:
He absolutely has momentum, Chuck. And, to be clear, simply put, North Carolina is the state to watch. There's not one, but two important races here that could shift the balance of power not only here in the state, but also in the country. One, you have the president's race. North Carolina is essentially a must-win state if President Trump wants to stay in the White House. It's a state that he won by less than four points, less than 200,000 votes back in 2016. But Chuck, right now he is slipping among support with the very people who put him there, suburban voters, women voters, college educated voters. And those are exactly the voters who Joe Biden is going after right now. Those who may perhaps be disillusioned with the president, and particularly his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. But Chuck, I have to tell you, there is probably no one who needs North Carolina more than Senator Chuck Schumer. This is one of those critical swing states that the Democrats are hoping to flip in their quest for those three states that could put them back in the balance of power. And right now, you have a vulnerable incumbent Republican who is now being edged out in the polls by a Democratic challenger. And Chuck, this is now on track to be the most expensive U.S. Senate race in history. That is now surpassing the 2018 record held by Florida. And all of this, Chuck, we're wondering is how is it going to affect the state of play in a state where already four and a half million people have cast their ballots. And we'll have a lot of data on election night, but November 12th is the date to watch because, thanks to a late breaking Supreme Court decision, that is the date by which all of these mail-in ballots must be counted. Chuck?
CHUCK TODD:
Well, in an extraordinarily close election, November 12th becomes then the second election decided, if you will. Morgan Radford in North Carolina-- putting it well when it comes to the battle for the Senate as well. Finally, it's Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania, one of the three blue wall states. Wisconsin and Michigan are the other two. They all fell to Mr. Trump in 2016, giving him the presidency. Well, the early vote in Pennsylvania is 2.3 million. That compares to 6.17 million votes that were cast in total in 2016. Right now, Pennsylvania appears to be the closest of the three Rust Belt states. The New York Times/Siena poll out this morning has Biden up six points, 49-43. It's pretty consistent with other polls in the state, that four-to-six-point range. Maura Barrett joins us now. She's in Williamsport, Pennsylvania. It's really a part of the state that the president has to over-perform in to overcome Joe Biden's lead. Maura, what have you got?
MAURA BARRETT:
Well, Chuck, Pennsylvania still could be anyone's game. In the seven months I've spent here, I've met farmers and manufacturing workers who want to support the president even while acknowledging that his trade war hasn't helped them much. But suburban women are tired of Trump's rhetoric. And Black Democratic voters are working to engage those in their communities that didn't show up back in 2016. And that's why we saw President Trump make four stops here yesterday, playing into his conservative, rural base. Republicans feel very confident about their two to one added voter registration advantage. But Democrats still hold the overall lead in the state. Joe Biden working to cut into President Trump's margins especially in the suburbs, and he's been majorly out-spending the president here in Pennsylvania. Biden will be in Philadelphia today, working to engage safe voters, while President Trump coming back to northeast Pennsylvania tomorrow in the final days ahead of Election Day. Chuck?
CHUCK TODD:
Maura Barrett in Pennsylvania where, if we're waiting for Pennsylvania and waiting for that vote count to determine the presidency, some might argue that means it's already been a good night for Donald Trump. If Joe Biden wins, we may look back at three moments as key to his success.There's, of course, Congressman James Clyburn's endorsement that sent him on his way in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday, wrapped up the nomination. There was President Trump's trip and photo-op at St. John's Church on June 1st. And then the president's disastrous performance in the first debate. All three were seismic polling shifts that became durable after the shift. Now, if the president wins, it will largely be because he has a dedicated and durable base that is large and well-positioned enough to snag an Electoral College victory, even when Mr. Trump loses the popular vote. So joining me now are our two pollsters who have been up all night -- we're not making that up -- crunching the numbers. It's Republican pollster Bill McInturff and Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt. All right, we told you the numbers at the top. It's ten points. But I want to focus on the virus here because if there was movement in this poll, it was over the virus, Bill and Jeff. We've been tracking the most important issue in dealing with the virus and the economy and the intertwining. Do you focus more on the economy over the virus or virus over the economy? In mid-October, the economy had an eight-point edge. The economy still has an eight-point edge, but it's now just three, Bill McInturff. Is this the October surprise? Is the virus' impact here at the end, particularly with independent voters, the October surprise?
BILL MCINTURFF:
I don't think the numbers have changed that much, Chuck. I don’t think that -- among those numbers who say coronavirus is the most important issue, they are overwhelmingly voting for Joe Biden by almost 85 points. But among people who think economy, they're voting for Trump by 85 points. And you'll see the coronavirus number didn't shift. But no question, if the coronavirus somehow magically never happened, this would be a very different election with a very different economy and a very different structure for the incumbent president.
CHUCK TODD:
Jeff Horwitt, look, we're reminded, we learned a lot about national polling versus battleground state polling. We have a ten-point lead. In the battleground states, we have Biden with a smaller, six-point lead. The question a lot of people are going to simply ask: Can Trump overcome that six points and win the Electoral College?
JEFF HORWITT:
Look, it's going to be very hard. And it's going to be very hard for a couple of reasons. One is unlike 2016, this is really a referendum on Donald Trump. We've had four years of a Trump presidency. We know what it is like. We've seen it, we've lived through it. And for the first three years, we wondered what an unconventional president, how he would address a crisis not of his own making. And in his fourth year of his presidency, we know. And the verdict is not good when we have 40 percent who approve of the job he's doing in handling Covid-19. And then, you know, the other thing is that the numbers really have been stable in terms of the trial lead at ten points now. It was 11 and 14 at our debates. There's been no movement to really suggest that Donald Trump is making ground. And the last point is Joe Biden. Joe Biden is net positive, his personal ratings have improved over time, which was not the case in 2016, while Donald Trump remains net negative.
CHUCK TODD:
I want to put up a couple of other demographic splits here, Bill. First, we have, among whites with college degrees and whites without college degrees, this has been a split we've been tracking for four years. You can see the split here, 21-point edge for the president among whites without a college degree. A 15-point edge for Joe Biden. But then let's go through the age groups here very quickly. Biden dominating among 18 to 34. That's not surprising. The middle age groups are very tight, with the president with a slight edge, among 35 to 49 and 50 to 64. But it's 65 plus, Bill, that is suddenly a 19-point edge, which was a bit of a spike from some of our previous polling.
BILL MCINTURFF:
Yeah. Look, they're a volatile group, but I think the other thing to look at is who has not voted. Among the roughly three out of ten people who say they have not voted yet, they're voting for Donald Trump by almost 30 points. And the states to look at, and you focused on the right thing, which is white non-college, look at the states with huge numbers of white non-college who have not yet voted. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. And this election is going to come down to those states again. And, just like we've seen historic early vote, I think we're going to see historic vote. And the other thing to remember is, like '04, like 2012, those were two incumbent races, Bush and Obama, where you give smart people a lot of time, a lot of money to change the composition of the electorate. The Republican party has done a good job registering new people in these states. And they have devoted a year to try to increase turnout in rural and with white non-college in these states. And I think these states are going to get very, very close.
CHUCK TODD:
Yeah, there's certainly some evidence of it, particularly in Florida from what we've been able to track. Jeff, let me end with this. And it's something that you and Bill talk about all the time, and it's the importance of the job rating number for an incumbent president because it gives you a hint of what the ballot number will be. Just to put up the graphic here, you can see going back to 1984, just on the re-elections, Reagan's re-elect approval rating 58, re-elected percentage was 59. Keep going, George H. W. Bush 36, 37. Bill Clinton, bit more of a gap because it was a three-way race, 56, 49. The two most recent reelects, 49 percent job ratings for Bush and Obama, they get 51 percent. So the president's sitting at 45 percent. Number one, Jeff, should we assume his ballot test is at 42, that it'll end up at 45? And does this mean game over if suddenly Biden's number doesn't drop all of a sudden and he can make that a winning number?
JEFF HORWITT:
You know, look, I think there is some evidence and historically that, you know, the job rating does track very closely with share of vote on Election Day. So far, this hasn't borne out for Donald Trump. We will see, but you could certainly make the case that the race could tighten somewhat, getting closer to Trump at 45. Again, in really a two-way race now, that's not going to be enough nationally, and we'll see how it plays out in the states. And again, I think that is the challenge for him is how does he get -- a president who's never had a positive job rating in his presidency in the NBC Wall Street Journal poll -- how does he get above 45 percent, which is what he's going to need. And the other thing I would say is Bill talked about the increase in turnout. In our poll, first-time voters who haven't voted before an election are going to Biden by 54 to 39 percent.
CHUCK TODD:
It is a key number that we've also seen spike a bit in Florida especially. Bill McInturff, Jeff Horwitt, thank you --
BILL MCINTURFF:
Thank you.
CHUCK TODD:
-- both.
JEFF HORWITT:
Thank you, Chuck.
CHUCK TODD:
Thank you for the all-nighter and we've got another all-nighter and an all-weeker coming up, so. When we come back, how safe is your vote? We're going to see how states will handle late votes, voter intimidation, confusion, legal challenges and anything else unexpected. Plus, we asked NBC News anchors and correspondents what they'll be looking for on election night. And we're going to show you their answers throughout the morning. We begin with my friend Lester Holt.
[BEGIN TAPE]
LESTER HOLT:
One of the things I'll be looking for in this election is the effects of voter suppression, whether it's with nefarious intent or systematic changes or legal challenges, it could become key, of course, in some of these very,very tight races.
SAVANNAH GUTHRIE:
I'll be watching my home state, the great state of Arizona. Fair to say the race is going to be decided in those sprawling Phoenix suburbs. And what happens there may well be a sign of what happens in suburbs around the country.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. One critically important key to the vote count on Tuesday night will be how the votes are counted. What kind of challenges will be raised? Where will we see lawsuits over when ballots arrive, postmarks, the segregation of ballots, matching signatures, terms like provisional and naked ballots, you better get your glossary out. And most ominous: Will there be violence? We have two guests who will be dealing with the vote count. Kathy Boockvar is the Pennsylvania Secretary of State and Stanford Law professor and elections expert and NBC News Legal Analyst Nate Persily also joins us. I'm going to begin though in Pennsylvania with the secretary of state there, Kathy Boockvar. Madam Secretary of State, thank you for doing this. Let me start with what has us, a lot of us, anxious here, and that is the timing of the vote count, particularly when the non-Election Day vote starts, starts to get counted. We already know, as many as seven counties won't even begin counting mail-in ballots until Wednesday morning. Explain to viewers how much patience we all need to have about Pennsylvania.
SEC. KATHY BOOCKVAR:
Thanks so much for having me on, Chuck, really appreciate it. So, let me start out by saying nearly 2.4 million Pennsylvanians have already cast their ballot by mail. This is going to be 10 times as many as the last time we had a presidential election in Pennsylvania. So, yes, it will take longer. But having said that, I want to be clear that elections have never been called election night. Our military and overseas ballots, you know, the men and women who are serving our country, they have until a full week after Election Day to cast their ballots. So, I just want to set that straight, that this is a process, and we want to make sure that every single vote of every valid voter is securely and accurately counted. So, to your question, I expect that the overwhelming majority of ballots in Pennsylvania, that's mail-in and absentee ballots, as well as in-person ballots, will be counted within a matter of days. The counties are staffing up, have a ton of equipment, best practices in place, and are planning, for the most part, to count 24/7 until it's done. And kudos to all those public servants who are going to make sure it gets done as quickly as possible.
CHUCK TODD:
All right, you did confirm, we are looking at days. Now, there's a specific three-day window a lot of people are wondering about, and that is Tuesday to Friday and ballots that are turned in with a postmark, on Tuesday, but after, after 8:00 p.m. Are you still setting those ballots aside, thinking that they could get thrown out?
SEC. KATHY BOOCKVAR
Yeah, so, you know, what we want to do, first and foremost, is say to the voters, "Ignore the lawsuits, ignore the hype. Just get your ballots in today." The best way you can make sure that your ballot will be counted is to get it in by 8:00 p.m. on November 3rd. And there's never been so many choices in Pennsylvania to do that. There's county election offices, secure drop boxes, other authorized locations. You can find all that on votesPA.com. But, yes, the standing law in Pennsylvania right now is that ballots, as long as they're received by 5:00 p.m. on November 6th, postmarked by November 3rd, they will be counted. But for effective election administration and making sure we have clarity in the counties, those ballots will be segregated. But they will be counted.
CHUCK TODD:
When will they be counted? Will you count them immediately or are you going to wait until the courts decide what to do with those ballots?
SEC. KATHY BOOCKVAR
So, we're going to be issuing guidance, you know, within a day, explaining to the counties how to canvas. The idea is not to wait, that they should be canvasing them as soon as the 8:00 p.m. time frame passes and the new ballots start coming in. So those will be canvassed.
CHUCK TODD:
Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar, good luck. There's only the rest of the country, perhaps, watching everything that happens in Pennsylvania. I know you're probably doing the election administrator's prayer, which is, you hope it's not close. But that said, good luck and we'll be watching.
SEC. KATHY BOOCKVAR
Thanks so much, Chuck. Appreciate it.
CHUCK TODD:
You've got it. And let me turn now to Nate Persily, who is our election -- legal election expert here. Nate, you just heard what she said. And I want to start there because if we don't have a call on Tuesday night, how Pennsylvania perhaps counts its votes, these late-arriving ballots, this postmark issue that is suddenly no longer apparently an acceptable thing if you postmark it by Election Day. You heard what she said there. They're setting them aside, they'll count them, but it sounded like it's going to be a separate count.
NATE PERSILY:
Well, that's right. I, I think that what we've seen in Pennsylvania is that they're trying to take a risk-averse approach -- that they're going to segregate these ballots just to make sure that if they are in doubt after the election, that it doesn't call the final result into question. And I think that, you know, this is because we've had some conflicting signals sent by the U.S. Supreme Court, we've had lots of litigation in Pennsylvania, but it's a pretty prudent move.
CHUCK TODD:
Where -- besides Pennsylvania, what other, what other battleground states do you expect to see quite a bit of litigation?
NATE PERSILY:
Well, we've already seen over 300 lawsuits in this election, so we're seeing it in the battleground states, we're seeing it in the non-battleground states. We've seen quite a bit in North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, but also places like Texas where we had a lawsuit that was just filed yesterday. We've seen some interesting rulings in Minnesota even recently. So, we're seeing it all around the country. This is sort of the legacy of Bush v. Gore 20 years ago is that the lawyers are becoming an important part of the campaign, as well.
CHUCK TODD:
And it does seem as if it’s ballot arrival seems to be where, where there is some room for litigation. How did that become such a vague deadline when you would think a postmark on Election Day seems pretty simple to me?
NATE PERSILY:
Well, several states provide for postmarks on Election Day, but many states also say you have to receive the ballots on Election Day. And so a lot of what's happened is a response to the Coronavirus pandemic because what a lot of administrators did is they extended the deadlines or courts extended the deadlines. So, that led to further lawsuits to try to clarify what the rules were, and then those ended up at the U.S. Supreme Court, where there's been a fight as to where non-legislators, which is to say state courts or local administrators can extend the deadlines like that.
CHUCK TODD:
I want to put up a poll from UMass Amherst. It just came out earlier this week. Possibility of election related violence, 80% in total were concerned -- some various levels of how concerned. 17%, not concerned. 80% concerned. I mean, I think we've all been through a rough year and so everybody's -- the public’s been feeling this. How concerned are you about Election Day violence?
NATE PERSILY:
Well, I'm concerned about a lot of things in this election, but we really have to focus on the positive. If you had asked me six months ago, whether we would have 90 million people who had already voted, and then expected 150 to 160 million voters who would have voted in the election, I would have been shocked. This is a 100-year flood of voters that we are seeing, and while there's always reasons to be concerned and vigilant, we shouldn't look at Election Day and see isolated instances of problems and assume that that is the story. So while, you know, we who work in this field are always concerned about these types of dysfunction, there is no indication now, at least in the early voting, that it’s posing a big problem.
CHUCK TODD:
What's the big lesson here that maybe a responsible federal government could address when it comes to voting?
NATE PERSILY:
Well, we need a national effort to secure the vote. I hope that after this election, that we sort of have an autopsy on our election system and see what we can do to make sure that, you know, the election runs smoothly. But we really do need to celebrate these local election administrators. I have to tell you, over the last six months, we've had hundreds of thousands of these local, sort of unsung heroes who have been dedicating their time to trying to adapt the election infrastructure to deal with the pandemic and they have done an unbelievable job.
CHUCK TODD:
Yes, in the face of getting berated sometimes on social media or by political candidates. It really doesn't certainly make it even less stressful when you add that to it. Nate Persily, there's part of me that hopes we don't see a lot of you this week because, if we do, it means there's some bad stuff going on, but I'm glad we have you in our corner on Tuesday night, sir. Thank you.
NATE PERSILY:
Thank you.
CHUCK TODD:
When we come back, both campaigns claim they're confident of victory. They both feel good about what they've seen on the ground. Guess what, only one's going to be right. The panel is next.
[BEGIN TAPE]
ANDREA MITCHELL:
I'm going to be watching whether Joe Biden gets a big enough margin out of Miami Dade to offset the president's advantage in other parts of the state. Also, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas, with big changes in the suburbs giving Democrats an edge in those states.
STEVE KORNACKI:
We're all going to watch Florida early, but the other one I'm going to be watching early is North Carolina. We should get a lot of vote reported out in North Carolina pretty early in the night. Another one of those key swing states that could tell us a lot about what the national picture is looking like.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. Panel is with us. Our election eve panel is NBC News White House correspondent Kristen Welker; NBC News Capitol Hill correspondent Kasie Hunt; Rich Lowry, editor of National Review; and the former Democratic senator from Missouri, Claire McCaskill. I want to start with just showing, in this -- since the last debate, this actually has been a campaign. We've seen a decent amount of travel. But I want to compare the travel here in the last, basically, 10 days. Here's the Joe Biden travel schedule. He's made it to seven states essentially, with about 10 stops in seven states over -- since the last debate. Now here's Donald Trump, who basically has gone to 12 states, basically about double the amount of stops in states. Kristen Welker, you traveled with both of the candidates, I think, this week -- have seen a piece of both of them. Look, the Trump frenetic schedule, they're basically campaigning how they view the virus to be.
KRISTEN WELKER:
That's right, Chuck. Look, this is a tale of two very different campaigns. I was in Florida and Georgia this past week. I can tell you there is so much enthusiasm on the ground, but we are seeing really a stark difference in how both of these candidates are campaigning. President Trump holding huge rallies, very different, very little social distancing, few masks. Joe Biden, on the other hand, has drive-in rallies. It's all about social distancing, not as many people, and the messaging very different as it relates to the key issue, fighting Covid-19. One Trump official telling me, "Look, this election will be won and lost on Covid-19." And inside Trump World, there is some concern that his messaging just hasn't been disciplined enough. He's trying to argue that the country is turning the corner as it relates to Covid. They want him to be focused on fighting the virus and on the economy. For Joe Biden, he's trying to argue that President Trump has waved the white flag as it relates to Covid, but inside Biden World, I can tell you there are some Democrats who worry he hasn't been aggressive enough out on the campaign trail. So I know that the Trump world feeling very bullish on Florida, North Carolina, and those critical states. The Biden campaign has a little bit of PTSD from 2016, so they are cautiously optimistic.
CHUCK TODD:
Of course. Well, I want to stick with Covid here, Kasie. Look, the president, all week long, has been complaining about the focus on Covid. Here's an example.
[BEGIN TAPE]
PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
And a safe vaccine is coming very quickly, you're going to have it momentarily, that eradicates the virus. And we're rounding the turn regardless. You know that. And you know that everything is Covid, Covid, Covid. You know that. You turn on the news, "Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid." If you get it, you're going to get better and then you're going to be immune and it's a whole thing and it goes away. You know, our doctors get more money if somebody dies from Covid. You know that, right?
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
Kasie Hunt, look at these headlines today. These are the front pages in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Des Moines Register, Minneapolis Star Tribune, Columbus Dispatch, all with front-page highlights of a spike in cases locally, a spike in deaths locally, a spike in hospitalizations locally. This is an awfully big gamble by the president.
KASIE HUNT:
This is the coronavirus election, Chuck. And it's clear from those clips you just played of President Trump, that he knows it. You know, Former President Obama mocked President Trump, saying that Trump was jealous of the media coverage the virus was getting. Of course not how that works. And you know, these spikes in these states are, in many ways, reflective of the policy decisions that have been made. There are also questions about whether these rallies that the president is holding are contributing directly to coronavirus spikes in some of these swing states. We've obviously seen the numbers with seniors in our new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll out this morning. I mean, if you and I had been talking about seniors potentially going for the Democrat four years ago, I think we would have laughed at ourselves in many ways. All of these things are related to this virus. And you know, combine that, you see these incredible numbers of early voting. You were talking with the pollsters and the election officials about potentially historic turnout. That's because literally every single person in America is affected by this. There is no hiding from it.
CHUCK TODD:
Right. Rich Lowry, look, we were here four years ago, though I don't think the numbers looked nearly the same as they look now. Are we missing something? Do you think we're missing something?
RICH LOWRY:
Well, obviously, you'd much prefer to be Joe Biden at the moment. There's been almost no sign of any tightening of the polls nationally, but you look at the traditional red states that are battlegrounds now, plus Florida, and this is a race balanced on a knife's edge between a potential Biden blowout and Trump getting to the cusp of 270. Now, I say the cusp because he can nip and tuck his way in all these states, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas and he still meets a blue wall, and probably Pennsylvania. And that's why if you look at the travel map you just had up, you'd think, you know, Trump's now an official resident of Florida. You'd think he's an official resident of Pennsylvania because they're a step behind there. Their voters are going to come on Election Day, but they need them to come in a massive way, perhaps a biblical way, to overcome what's happening in the suburbs and Pennsylvania and elsewhere around the country.
CHUCK TODD:
You know, Claire McCaskill, Rich Lowry brought up sort of a theory that I have in this race, which is that each state in the battleground could be very, very tight, but they could all tip in one direction, giving a big gap in the Electoral College.
CLAIRE MCCASKILL:
That's true. I mean, there's no question that it could tip big time one way or the other. On the other hand, who knew that we would be talking so much about North Carolina and Georgia at this point in the election? I mean, clearly the Biden campaign is on offense and the Trump campaign is on defense. And Trump has really ignored, relatively speaking, some states that he has to win. And you know what, the Democrats are afraid of the polling right now and fear motivates. And so does attempts at voter suppression. So I think this narrative that the turnout on Election Day is going to be heavily, heavily weighted pro-Trump, I'm not so sure about that.
CHUCK TODD:
Look, I think with closing on the virus, I think you're right to say, you know what, let's wait to see what the vote actually looks like. Let me pause it there. When we come back, we're going to have a lot of fun talking Senate races. But first, we're going to give you a guide on what to expect when you're electing, how to watch the returns on election night.
[BEGIN TAPE]
JOSÉ DÍAZ-BALART:
I'll be looking at Florida, Florida, y Florida. Let's see what the Sunshine State decides, but also how many of the 32 million Latinos eligible to vote will come out. They could have an impact on Florida, on Georgia, on Texas, on Nevada, on Arizona, and a whole lot more.
KATE SNOW:
Will women who align with conservative policies in the suburbs of Cleveland vote for President Trump or are they too turned off because, as one told me, they have to explain his behavior to their kids? And if they flip to Vice President Biden, will Trump support in rural parts of Ohio outweigh them?
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back, Data Download time, and what and how to watch the returns as polls close on Tuesday night in a year that, as we've said, will be unlike any other and test every political junkie's patience. Look, the big show is going to start at 7:00. That's when polls close in six states including Georgia and in most of Florida, the parts seen here in gold. As you know, the panhandle closes an hour later. But a half hour after that, the polls close in two more states that everyone will be watching. North Carolina and Ohio both will give us some interesting clues about both of those regions. And if Biden looks like a winner in any of those states, we might be able to call the election early. But don't count on that. In Florida, by the way, we're going to be watching a few key counties, Miami-Dade, of course, for the Latino vote, Hillsborough County near Tampa for the suburban vote, and tiny Hernando County on the gulf coast just to see how President Trump is doing with the voters who delivered that state to him in 2016. 8:00 polls close in 16 more states, including Pennsylvania, most of Michigan, you know, a little bit of it will close an hour later, and most of Texas -- another little bit out west will close an hour later. Everything but the gray in both of those states, polls close. Now, Michigan and Pennsylvania, that's going to be very slow, that vote count. In Pennsylvania, they can't even start counting until Tuesday morning. And in Michigan, they can't count until the polls close -- those early votes. So we could be waiting for them for some time. And even if President Trump holds Texas, a tight result would be an ominous sign for Republicans in years to come. Now, at 9:00 p.m., we get polls close in most of the other big battlegrounds: Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Nebraska. Results in Minnesota and Wisconsin could take a while to come for those same reasons. Those early votes will take a while to count. Democrats are expecting victories in both of those places. Now, there's little doubt that President Trump will take Nebraska. But Biden is favored in the Congressional district there around Omaha. And in a close election, that could produce one very big, important electoral vote. And then there's Arizona. The early vote may be already tallied and released within an hour of poll closing. And everyone will be watching Maricopa County, which produces more than half of the state's vote. And again, it's really hard to win the state without it. We can only find one instance in the last decade where somebody lost Maricopa, barely, and then won a statewide race. Bottom line, if Biden wins any of those southern states or Ohio early, expect a new president in January. But if Mr. Trump starts picking them off, we may be in for a very long election night actually, and beyond. Maybe it is election week or even month. When we come back, who's going to control the Senate?
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. The Senate battleground is as big as we've seen a Senate battleground in decades. I mean, there's arguably 16, maybe 18 races that could get decided by single digits. But Claire and Rich, I want to narrow it down to the five races that I think are the majority makers for each side. North Carolina, a lot of people think a tipping point state -- Thom Tillis, Cal Cunningham. Iowa, new poll late yesterday had Joni Ernst with a narrow lead over Theresa Greenfield there. Ernst, the Republican. We've got Maine, a race we won't know the results for for a couple of days because of ranked choice voting. That is a nail biter one-point race. And then, of course, there're the two Georgia races. One will definitely be in a runoff, the special election between Collins, Loeffler and Warnock. Two of those -- we're expecting Warnock, the Democrat, plus one of the two Republicans in the runoff there. And then, of course, the other race which, if no one gets 50, it'll also end in a runoff. So Rich Lowry, if those are your majority maker states, you've got to feel good about Iowa. What about everything else?
RICH LOWRY:
Well, Chuck, this is a huge thing. Huge, because if Biden wins and Republicans hold the Senate, his presidency is neutered from the beginning. I'm focused on North Carolina. If you assume Republicans are losing in Colorado, Arizona and probably Maine, then you focus in on North Carolina as the next most vulnerable. And this race between a Democrat who's been embroiled in an embarrassing personal scandal and a Republican incumbent who is a terrible candidate could have enormous consequences for the future of the country.
CHUCK TODD:
Yeah, you wonder how much the Donald Trump effect, if you will, on personal stuff may have weirdly shielded the Democrat in that race. Claire McCaskill, when I look here, Democrats are quietly optimistic that Georgia could avoid a runoff. That Ossoff has late momentum. That obviously would totally change the calculus on the Senate map.
CLAIRE MCCASKILL:
No question. If Ossoff pulls it off without a runoff, then it's game over. And keep in mind one thing, Chuck. You know who the most unpopular politician in America is? It's not Donald Trump. It's Mitch McConnell. Yeah, everybody wants to defeat Donald Trump on my side of the aisle. But they really want to remove Mitch McConnell. And, you know, don't sleep on Iowa here. Yes, there was a respected poll out last night that showed Joni Ernst up. There's a respected poll out this morning that shows Greenfield up by the same margin. I don't think anybody should think Iowa and North Carolina and Maine are in any way decided for the Republicans. This is all going to come down to a few votes on Election Day.
CHUCK TODD:
It's true. And one thing about these Senate races, so many of them could take days to find out the result. Alaska's going to be a close race and all of that. Kasie Hunt, I do want to not ignore the House, but I want to do the House very big picture. I had a Republican source say to me, "Well, as long as Republicans have more members of the House than they did after the '08 part two wave." And I was, like, "Okay, let's look what that bottom-line number was." So, after the 2008 elections, here was the math: 257-178. So 178 is the floor here, Kasie Hunt. Right now, the current makeup of Congress, I believe there're 197 Republicans currently right now. Bottom line, Kasie, Republicans expect to lose seats, not gain. Is that right?
KASIE HUNT:
I think that's right, Chuck, yes. Democrats expect to gain. I think it’s, most likely, it's going to be in the single digits. So not necessarily that floor that you showed. I mean, that would be a real bloodbath for Republicans if the House was down around those numbers. But the president is just, we cannot underscore this enough, such a drag for most Republican candidates. And the question is, in my mind, in terms of the Senate map, yes, the president is bad for them, but also, Republicans feel like it was a lot worse two weeks ago, three weeks ago when the president was hospitalized for coronavirus and after that first devastating debate. If the election had been held then, I think Republicans firmly believe they would've lost the Senate. So, the question now is are those unknowns -- you know, what's going on in Texas, is Georgia really going to swing -- those are the same questions in the presidential race as they are on the Senate map. If things are relatively normal as we conceive them to be, to the extent that that's possible, they can hold the Senate. But if it's not, they could see a bloodbath too.
CHUCK TODD:
Kristen Welker, this just in -- the White House deciding to respond to Dr. Anthony Fauci, who did an interview with The Post last night, pretty critical of the president's handling of the virus, but boy, the White House, Judd Deere with an on the record statement taking it to Fauci. So, they want to close with a feud with Anthony Fauci 48 hours before the election?
KRISTEN WELKER:
Judd Deere, on the record, accusing Anthony Fauci of playing politics, just as you see Covid cases spiking all across the country. And in these critical battleground states, it is one more data point, Chuck, that is putting these very vulnerable Republican candidates in a box. And making it that much more difficult for them on Election Day, Chuck.
CHUCK TODD:
No incumbent Republican wants to be asked, "Whose side do you take on the virus, Fauci or Trump?" Before we go, a programming note. I hope you'll join me and my colleagues Lester Holt, Savannah Guthrie and Andrea Mitchell for complete coverage of election night, beginning at 7:00 Eastern Time. The information and the data is the star of our show. So tune in. That's on Tuesday, in case you didn't know it. That's all we have for today. Thank you for watching. We'll be back next week, whether or not the election is over because if it's Sunday, it's Meet the Press. Go vote.