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Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., in Atlanta on Sept. 5, 2022.
Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., in Atlanta on Sept. 5, 2022.Elijah Nouvelage / Getty Images

There's a $1.4 billion political ad spending wave coming and Democrats have the edge

With more money to be spent, Democrats now have the future ad-spending edge in House, Senate and gubernatorial races.

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The return from the Labor Day holiday marks the unofficial final sprint to Election Day, and this year is slated to be no exception — there's already been $1.4 billion in political ad bookings placed between Tuesday and Election Day, with that number expected to swell in the coming weeks.

Right now, Democrats have the edge overall — more than $658 million in bookings compared to the GOP's $554 million, per ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

And the Democrats have the edge in Senate races ($250 million booked versus $237 million booked by Republicans), House races ($215 million for Democrats and $204 million for Republicans) and gubernatorial races ($146 million for Democrats and $86 million for Republicans).

While the margins in federal races are relatively small, the big Democratic gubernatorial ad advantage comes with the party holding about a 2-1 future spending edge in Michigan, a $10 million edge in Wisconsin, a $16 million edge in Minnesota and a $7 million edge in Pennsylvania.

Georgia’s Senate race has more booked spending than any other contest, with more than $115 million reserved through Election Day. The top governor’s race for ad spending is Michigan’s gubernatorial race, with $49 million booked, and the top House race for future ad-spending is Minnesota’s 2nd District, where there’s about $17 million booked.