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The good news for President Biden is that his national approval rating is on the rise, including in our recent NBC News poll (where it inched up from 42% in August to 45% this month among registered voters).
The bad news for him is that his standing remains in historically perilous territory for the party holding the White House, especially in key battleground states.
Three different Georgia polls released this week — via CBS News, Marist and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution — find the state’s Senate race between incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., and GOP challenger Herschel Walker within the margin of error. But they also show Biden’s approval rating in the state in the high 30s (Marist, Journal-Constitution) or low 40s (CBS News).
In Wisconsin, a Spectrum News/Siena poll has the Senate contest also within the margin of error (Democrat Mandela Barnes at 48%, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson at 47% among likely voters), but President Biden’s approval rating in the state is at 42%.
And in Ohio, a Marist poll has the Senate race between Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan within 1 point, but Biden’s approval is in the high 30s.
As we’ve said before, it is more than possible that the current midterm environment is shaping up to be a choice (on abortion, Donald Trump) rather than being a traditional referendum on a sitting president.
But if it does wind up being a referendum on Biden — or close to it — these approval numbers in key Senate states will help tell that story.