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A new Monmouth University poll is the latest national survey to show Democrats performing better on the generic ballot, despite President Joe Biden’s job rating remaining below 40%.
In this poll, 50% of Americans say they prefer Democrats controlling Congress, versus 43% preferring Republican being in charge. That 7-point Democratic advantage is up from June when the parties were even (47%-47%), as well as from May when the GOP had a 4-point edge on this question. (48%-44%).
That’s a net 11-point swing over the course of the summer (from R+4 to D+7).
Yet the Monmouth poll — conducted July 28-Aug. 1, of 808 adults, with an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.5 percentage points — also shows Biden’s job rating at 38% approve, 56% disapprove.
That’s essentially unchanged from Biden’s 36% approve, 58% disapprove rating from June.
Monmouth’s poll is just the latest national survey to show Democrats improving on the generic ballot at the same time as Biden’s job rating remains underwater.
Last week, a USA Today/Suffolk poll had Biden’s approval rating at 39% among registered voters, but also with Democrats leading on the poll’s generic ballot by 4 points, 44%-40% -- up from a 40%-40% tie a month ago.
Also last week, an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll showed Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., leading GOP challenger Herschel Walker by 3 points (46%-43%), but with Biden’s job rating in the battleground state at just 36%.
And they all raise this question ahead of the midterm elections that are just three months away: Do the generic ballot numbers eventually come back down to earth for Democrats, aligning with Biden’s job rating and the overall fundamentals of a midterm environment (which are traditionally a referendum on the sitting president)?
Or does this split between perceptions of Biden and desire for control of Congress continue to exist?