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Sen. Bob Menendez in Washington on Jan. 26, 2023.
Sen. Bob Menendez in Washington on Jan. 26, 2023.Tom Williams / CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images file

Eyes on 2024: Uncertainties abound across Senate battlefield

New developments in West Virginia, Wisconsin and New Jersey underscore the uncertainty in the battle for the Senate.

By and

Monday’s developments across the Senate battlefield underscore how fluid the race for Senate control is. 

Politico reports that Republicans are beginning to sweat the forthcoming primary fights between Club-for-Growth-backed candidates and the establishment — particularly in West Virginia, Ohio and Montana. 

Two quotes underscore the divide — North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis saying that “there’s a lot of work to be done on understanding the main goal is not to make a point on any one political issue, but to win,” and Club for Growth President David McIntosh declaring that “the milquetoast kind of establishment Republicans actually do worse” in elections than more conservative Republicans. 

The battle starts early in West Virginia, where the establishment-backed One Nation just booked about a month of broadcast and radio ads for $1.6 million, per AdImpact. 

In Wisconsin, Republicans may be getting an unexpected face joining their Senate primary — Rep. Tom Tiffany, who told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that his team bought two domain names as he considers launching a Senate bid. 

And there’s one more headline to keep an eye on amid the evolving Senate battlefield: “Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey to set up legal defense fund amid criminal probe,” from NBC News’ Jonathan Dienst, Ken Dilanian and Zoë Richards. While Menendez has beat criminal charges before, the uncertainty surrounding new potential legal issues could throw a new wrinkle into a race that wasn’t necessarily expected to be prominently on the radar next year. 

In other campaign news…

Mum’s the word: Former President Donald Trump has been quick to criticize Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, but NBC News’ Natasha Korecki and Jonathan Allen write that Trump has been unusually silent on DeSantis recently signing a six-week abortion ban.  

Pondering opponents: Democrats are torn on whether they’d rather see Biden face Trump or DeSantis next year, NBC News’ Sahil Kapur reports. 

Trump’s court drama: A judge denied Trump’s request to delay a civil rape trial, stemming from writer E. Jean Carroll’s allegation that Trump raped her in the mid-1990s, which Trump has denied. 

Knowing RFK, Jr.: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., is set to announce a run for the Democratic presidential nomination on Wednesday, and the New York Times delves into his history of “vaccine skepticism.” 

He’s running: Embattled Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., who embellished his resume and is facing multiple investigations, announced Monday that he is running for a second term

She’s running: Democrat Emily Busch announced Monday that she is running in Michigan’s 10th District against GOP Rep. John James. Busch became a gun safety advocate after her son survived the mass shooting at Oxford High School in 2021.

And so is he: Ohio Republican businessman Bernie Moreno officially announced his Senate bid Tuesday (NBC News’ Henry Gomez wrote last week about Moreno’s impending bid). 

CORRECTION (April 18, 2023, 12:28 p.m. ET): An earlier version of this article misstated Emily Busch's position. She is not a member of the Michigan state House, having lost her bid in 2022.