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A voter casts their ballot at a drop box at Philadelphia city hall on Oct. 24, 2022.
A voter casts their ballot at a drop box at Philadelphia city hall on Oct. 24. Ed Jones / AFP - Getty Images

Fetterman-Oz Senate race is now a dead heat

Multiple polls released over last 48 hours show a tight contest.


At least four different polls released over the last 48 hours tell the same story about Pennsylvania’s key Senate race with five days until Election. 

The contest is a dead heat after last week’s debate — or close to it. 

As reported earlier, a Monmouth poll conducted Oct. 27-31 found 48% Pennsylvania voters saying they definitely or probably will vote for Democrat John Fetterman, versus 44% saying they’ll definitely/probably vote for Republican Mehmet Oz. 

And another poll via Muhlenberg College — conducted mostly (though not entirely) after the debate — had Fetterman and Oz tied at 47%-47% among likely voters, a change from its September poll when Fetterman was ahead by 5 points, 49%-44%. 

Now come new polls, including Fox News (showing Fetterman at 45%, Oz at 42% among registered voters) and a USA Today/Suffolk poll (Fetterman 47%, Oz 45% among likely voters).

Looking at the totality of Pennsylvania Senate polls — including those that don’t meet NBC News’ standards — the FiveThirtyEight average of the race now has the two candidates separated by less than 1 point, after Fetterman’s clear lead since September. 

So it’s close. 

And Senate control, as we noted earlier, likely hangs in the balance.