Wyoming GOP Rep. Liz Cheney continued to build an impressive war chest ahead of her GOP primary next month against Trump-backed candidate Harriet Hageman.
But two new polls show her losing the primary by over twenty points despite the hefty financial advantage.
Cheney is among the five GOP incumbents who outraised their Trump-backed challengers in the latest fundraising quarter, although Hageman is the best-funded challenger of the group. Cheney raised $2.9 million to Hageman’s $1.8 million, ending the quarter on June 30 with nearly $7 million in her campaign account to Hageman’s $1.4 million. Cheney also spent nearly twice as much as Hageman over the quarter.
But that doesn’t mean Cheney will win over voters in Wyoming. Just ask Illinois’ Rodney Davis, South Carolina’s Tom Rice and West Virginia’s David McKinley — the three GOP incumbents who lost to Trump-backed challengers despite outraising and outspending them.
In fact, Hageman could be the one who’s cruising. A Casper Star-Tribune poll released Friday showed Trump-endorsed Hageman with a 22-point lead over Cheney.
NBC News’ Marc Caputo got his hands on another Wyoming poll — via WPA Intelligence for the conservative Club for Growth — which shows Hageman up 28 points among likely primary voters, 59%-31%. (The Club for Growth has endorsed Hageman.)
From Caputo: “Those results are based on a model in which 13% of the primary’s voters are Democrats (Wyoming allows party-switchers to vote in primaries). The poll tested two other scenarios, where Democrats are 20% or 25% of the electorate, and Hageman still leads Cheney by 18 percentage points and 12 points, respectively.”
Elsewhere on the campaign trail:
Iowa Senate: GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley has an 8-point lead over Democrat Mike Franken in a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll. Pollster J. Ann Selzer acknowledged Grassley has a “solid lead,” but also said it’s Grassley’s “weakest showing since 1980.”
Pennsylvania Senate: The Associated Press reports that Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman’s absence from the campaign trail since suffering a stroke isn’t worrying party leaders and activists in the state, with one former county party chairman saying Fetterman’s campaign said he would “start getting out” around mid-July.
Wisconsin Senate: Wisconsin Democratic Senate hopefuls took the stage for their first televised debate, with much of the conversation centered on Republican Sen. Ron Johnson.
Arizona Governor: Former Vice President Mike Pence is backing Republican Karrin Taylor Robson, putting him alongside other GOP establishment figures like Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey but against former President Trump.
Maryland Governor: The New York Times takes a deep dive into the Democratic and Republican primaries for governor ahead of Tuesday’s elections.
Maryland's Sixth District: Republican Matthew Foldi, a 25 year-old conservative writer, has attracted some big-name endorsements, but he still faces a tough primary on Tuesday in the race to take on Democratic Rep. David Trone, per Politico.
Michigan's 11th District: Michigan Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens won an endorsement from the Detroit Free Press editorial board in her member-on-member primary against Rep. Andy Levin.
New Hampshire-01: Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is endorsing Matt Mowersin the crowded GOP primary.