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Voters wait at a polling place at Tempe History Museum in Arizona on Nov. 3, 2020.
Voters wait at a polling place at Tempe History Museum in Arizona on Nov. 3, 2020.Olivier Touron / AFP via Getty Images

Republicans outnumber Democrats in battleground Arizona, new statistics show

The GOP holds its largest registration edge in the state since 2018.


Democrats have flexed their political muscles in Arizona in the last two election cycles, winning Senate and presidential contests, and even threatening to primary Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., over her centrist positions. 

But Arizona isn’t a blue state. Far from it. 

New voter registration statistics from the secretary of state’s office, first reported by ABC15, show Republicans outnumbering Democrats by nearly 4 percentage points among active voters, 34.5% to 30.9% — or approximately 150,000 voters. 

It’s the GOP’s widest registration advantage in the state since 2018, ABC15 adds. 

Unaffiliated voters represent 33.7% of the state’s active voters — slightly behind the GOP but ahead of Democrats. 

Here's the breakdown of July 2022 voter registration numbers in the state per the Arizona Secretary of State (active voters):

  • Republican: 1,433,650 (34.5%)
  • Other: 1,399,954 (33.7%)
  • Democratic: 1,284,651 (30.9%)
  • Libertarian: 32,506 (0.8%)

Two developments have helped Democrats win in Arizona — first Sinema in 2018, then Joe Biden and Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., in 2020 — despite that GOP registration advantage. 

One, Sinema (50%-47%), Biden (53%-44%) and Kelly (55%-45%) all won the independent voters, according to NBC News’ exit polls. 

And two, all three candidates peeled off about 10% of Republican voters, while holding on to almost all Democratic voters (96%-97%). 

Bottom line: Arizona is a purple state, where Democrats need independents and disaffected Republicans to win — in a state where the GOP holds the registration advantage.