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Democrats have flexed their political muscles in Arizona in the last two election cycles, winning Senate and presidential contests, and even threatening to primary Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., over her centrist positions.
But Arizona isn’t a blue state. Far from it.
New voter registration statistics from the secretary of state’s office, first reported by ABC15, show Republicans outnumbering Democrats by nearly 4 percentage points among active voters, 34.5% to 30.9% — or approximately 150,000 voters.
It’s the GOP’s widest registration advantage in the state since 2018, ABC15 adds.
Unaffiliated voters represent 33.7% of the state’s active voters — slightly behind the GOP but ahead of Democrats.
Here's the breakdown of July 2022 voter registration numbers in the state per the Arizona Secretary of State (active voters):
- Republican: 1,433,650 (34.5%)
- Other: 1,399,954 (33.7%)
- Democratic: 1,284,651 (30.9%)
- Libertarian: 32,506 (0.8%)
Two developments have helped Democrats win in Arizona — first Sinema in 2018, then Joe Biden and Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., in 2020 — despite that GOP registration advantage.
One, Sinema (50%-47%), Biden (53%-44%) and Kelly (55%-45%) all won the independent voters, according to NBC News’ exit polls.
And two, all three candidates peeled off about 10% of Republican voters, while holding on to almost all Democratic voters (96%-97%).
Bottom line: Arizona is a purple state, where Democrats need independents and disaffected Republicans to win — in a state where the GOP holds the registration advantage.