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Gov. Brian Kemp and Sen. Raphael Warnock
Gov. Brian Kemp and Sen. Raphael Warnock.Dustin Chambers/Bloomberg via Getty Images file ; Jessica McGowan/Getty Images file

The trend is clear: New polls show Kemp and Warnock leading, splitting ticket

Two of the three polls show both Kemp and Warnock with significant leads among independent voters.


Three Georgia polls released this month all show the same trend — Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock both leading, suggesting that some voters currently feel comfortable splitting their vote between incumbents from both parties in the states' top races.

Fox News (conducted 7/22-7/26, Margin of Error +/- 3%)

  • Warnock 46%, Republican Herschel Walker 42%
  • Kemp 47%, Democrat Stacey Abrams 44%

Atlanta Journal-Constitution (7/14-7/22, MOE +/- 3.3%)

  • Warnock 46%, Walker 43%
  • Kemp 48%, Abrams 43%

AARP Georgia (7/5-7/11, MOE +/- 4.4%)

  • Warnock 50%, Walker 47%
  • Kemp 52%, Abrams 45%

Now all of these results are within each poll’s margin of error (note: margin of error goes in both directions. So a poll’s margin of error of plus-minus 4.0 percentage points would require a candidate’s lead to be greater than 8 points to be considered outside of it.) What’s more, we are still more than three months out before the election, and there’s ample time for these races to change dramatically..

But the fact that polling continues to show the same dynamic adds credence to the idea that voters are splitting their votes.

In the AARP poll, both Walker and Abrams perform well with voters from their own party, but their opponents had the edge with independent voters. Warnock also has a significant 20-point lead among independents in the Fox News poll, a poll where Kemp is winning independents by 15 points. Kemp's lead among independents was far smaller, 3 points, in the AJC poll, with Warnock leading among independents by 11 points.