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Poll: Trump Poised to Get Lowest Vote Ever Among Latinos

by Stephen A. Nuño /
Thousands of Latinos, immigrants and their supporters congregate outside the Wisconsin State Capitol in Madison, Wis., to protest legislative bills they believe to be anti-immigration Thursday, Feb. 18, 2016. (John Hart /Wisconsin State Journal via AP) MANDATORY CREDIT John Hart / AP

Donald Trump is poised to get the lowest vote ever among Latinos if he becomes the Republican candidate for president, says a recent poll commissioned by America’s Voice, a group that advocates for immigration reform.

The poll shows that either Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump among Latinos by a wide margin, with Trump garnering 11 percent of the likely vote. This would be the lowest vote for a Republican candidate for president among Latinos since polls began measuring Latino voters.

Latino Decisions interviewed a total of 2,200 Latino registered voters conducted in English or Spanish, according to the respondent’s choice. The national sample carries a margin of error of +/-2.1 percentage points.

Donald Trump’s decisive primary victory in New York on Tuesday brings him closer to the nomination, but his main contender, Ted Cruz, predicted that the GOP nomination will hinge on a contested convention. "Nobody's getting 1,237," Cruz told NBC News while campaigning in Pennsylvania. Republicans running to represent the party in the presidential election need 1,237 delegates in order to secure the nomination.

According to the poll, Donald Trump also garners the most unfavorable view among Latinos, with 87 percent of Latinos saying they see him as unfavorable.

By comparison, Latinos’ unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton is 32 percent and her favorable rating is 61 percent.

Bernie Sanders had the same favorability among Latinos, at 61 percent but is less unpopular than Clinton, with 24 percent of Latinos having an unfavorable opinion of the Vermont Senator.

George W. Bush won almost 40 percent of the Latino vote in 2004, with some estimates showing Ronald Reagan doing as well 20 years earlier, marking the high point of the Republican potential for Latino voters. Donald Trump, according to the poll, would mark a new low point for the GOP in the contest for the growing Latino population. Pew Research Center estimates that there is more than 27 million Latinos eligible to vote for 2016.

A presidential contest between Clinton and Trump would garner a higher share of the Latino voters for Hillary Clinton, 76 percent, than Barack Obama in 2012, which was 71 percent according to Pew.

When asked if Donald Trump’s views on immigration make them less likely to vote Republican, 78 percent agreed.

Even though Latinos rank the economy as the most important issue facing the country, immigration policy ranks the highest when asked which is the most important issue facing the Hispanic community. When asked if they knew someone who was an undocumented immigrant, 57 percent said yes, and 34 percent said that they knew someone who faced deportation.

The immigration issue continues to color Latinos’ attitudes about the candidates and will be a motivating factor in their participation come November, with almost half of Latinos saying they are more enthusiastic about voting in 2016 than in 2012.

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