The Lid: Early Signs Point to Convention Woes for GOP

Welcome to The Lid, your afternoon dose of the 2016 ethos… Tim Kaine took over the Hillary for Virginia Twitter account on Monday, giving followers a first-hand look at what their dads would be like on social media if they were chosen as vice president.

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‘16 from 30,000

It’s still a bit early to make sweeping assessments about the candidates’ respective convention bounces, but some new numbers from Gallup did catch our eye. In the poll, 45 percent of respondents said they were more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton based on what they saw or read about the Democratic convention, compared to 41 percent who said they were less likely to vote for her. That’s a net score of about +4 percentage points, which isn’t huge in the grand scheme of history (Dems won a whopping +45 percentage point score after Bill Clinton’s first convention as the nominee in 1992, for example.) But compare that to the GOP side: 36 percent of respondents said they were more likely to support Trump based on the GOP convention, while 51 percent said they were less likely. That net score of -15 percentage points isn’t just bad news for Donald Trump, it’s the worst score - by a significant margin - since Gallup started measuring the impact of the conventions in 1984. There will be lots more polls in the next few days and weeks to give us a sense of how Philadelphia and Cleveland really impacted the race, but these numbers could be an early indicator of how the RNC was a missed opportunity for Team Trump.



“There are certain sacrosanct subjects that no amount of wordsmithing can repair once crossed.”

  • VFW head Brian Duffy, on Donald Trump’s statements about the Khan family.


Donald Trump holds a rally in Ashburn, Virginia

Tim Kaine holds a jobs event in Daytona Beach, Florida.

Mike Pence campaigns in Tucson and Phoenix.