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THE LID: Winners and Losers

Image: *** BESTPIX *** Bernie Sanders Holds Town Hall Meeting In Iowa

WEST DES MOINES, IA - JULY 24: Democratic presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) speaks to guests at a town hall meeting at Valley High School on July 24, 2015 in West Des Moines, Iowa. The campaign stop was the last of three stops Sanders scheduled in Iowa today. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images) *** BESTPIX *** Scott Olson / Getty Images

Welcome to The Lid, your afternoon dose of the 2016 ethos… Rand Paul says he’s “drawing the line at self-immolation” when it comes to competing for attention with Donald Trump. Good to hear, although we assume that somewhere, some political consultant is frantically focus-grouping it for a client anyway.

’16 AT 30 THOUSAND

After a deep dive into our latest NBC News/Marist polls of Iowa and New Hampshire, here’s our take on some winners and losers from the poll (who are NOT named either Trump or Clinton):

WINNER: Bernie Sanders. He’s enjoying a significant bump in both Iowa (+18 percent support) and New Hampshire (+19 percent support), and he’s the only candidate with a positive favorable rating in both states.

WINNER: John Kasich. His debut in our New Hampshire poll saw him at fourth place, garnering seven percent support. Those TV bucks from pro-Kasich group New Day for America are paying off in the Granite State.

WINNER: The crosstabs of this poll show Walker solidly well-positioned in Iowa, leading with self-described conservatives, Tea Party supporters, older voters and white evangelical Christians

LOSER: Mike Huckabee has lost 10 points in Iowa since we last polled there in February, and four candidates -- Walker, Trump(!), Bush and Carson -- are beating him with evangelicals

LOSER: Marco Rubio. Count us among the observers that think that Rubio will get his surge at some point, but these numbers (tied for 6th place in New Hampshire and 7th place in Iowa) show he’s got work to do to find his path.

POPPING ON NBC POLITICS

CAMPAIGN QUICK READS

CLINTON: Her campaign is out with a Frankenstein-looking trailer mocking GOP presidential candidates’ comments on climate change.

RUBIO: He became the first presidential candidate to file in South Carolina on Monday.

TRUMP: He sold his penthouse unit in New York’s Trump Park Avenue building for $21 million, the Wall Street Journal reports.

PAUL: A third pro Paul super PAC, called Purple PAC, filed with the FEC on Monday, Politico reports.

FOR THE RECORD…

“I’m drawing the line at self-immolation, none of us are going to set ourselves on fire.”

  • Rand Paul on the limits he’s set in competing for attention with Donald Trump.

TOMORROW’S SKED

Chris Christie and Hillary Clinton are in New Hampshire.

Rick Santorum is in South Carolina.

Scott Walker campaigns in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.