Democrat Hillary Clinton has jumped out to a nine-point lead in the battleground state of New Hampshire, while she’s tied with Republican Donald Trump in Nevada, according to two new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.
In New Hampshire, Clinton gets the support of 45 percent of likely voters, and Trump gets 36 percent; Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 10 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein is at 4 percent.
Clinton’s lead over Trump in last month’s poll of the Granite State was just two points among likely voters, 39 percent to 37 percent, while Johnson was at 15 percent and Stein at 3 percent.
In a two-way race, Clinton’s advantage over Trump is eight points, 47 percent to 39 percent – up from her one-point lead last month, 42 percent to 41 percent.
In Nevada, meanwhile, Clinton and Trump are tied among likely voters, 43 percent to 43 percent, and Johnson gets 10 percent. (Stein isn’t on the ballot in the Silver State.)
Last month, Trump held a one-point edge over Clinton, 42 percent to 41 percent, when third parties were added to the ballot.
In a head-to-head contest in Nevada, Clinton and Trump are tied at 45 percent each.
Last month, Clinton was ahead by one point in this two-way matchup, 45 percent to 44 percent.
“In Las Vegas terms, the contest for Nevada’s six electoral votes is a ‘push’ right now,” says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Odds are that Clinton can bank on New Hampshire’s four electoral votes.”
And New Hampshire’s four electoral votes are important: Clinton could lose Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio – but still win the presidency by holding on to New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
Clinton leads among early Nevada voters
The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll also shows that 13 percent of likely voters in Nevada have already voted, and Clinton leads among those voters, 60 percent to 35 percent.
Among the 87 percent who say they haven’t yet voted, Trump is ahead, 46 percent to 42 percent.
Looking down the ballot
The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls also have numbers on two competitive Senate contests that could decide which party controls that chamber.
In Nevada, Republican Joe Heck holds a seven-point advantage over Democratic opponent Catherine Cortez Masto among likely voters, 49 percent to 42 percent – up from Heck’s two-point lead last month.
In New Hampshire, incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte gets 48 percent among likely voters, while Democratic challenger Maggie Hassan gets 47 percent.
In September’s poll, Ayotte held an eight-point lead over Hassan, 52 percent to 44 percent.
And in New Hampshire’s gubernatorial contest, Democrat Colin Van Ostern gets support from 47 percent of likely voters, while Republican Chris Sununu gets 46 percent.
The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of Nevada and New Hampshire were conducted Oct. 20-24. In Nevada, the poll interviewed 985 registered voters (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points) and 707 likely voters (plus-minus 3.7 percentage points).
In New Hampshire, the poll interviewed 1,020 registered voters (plus-minus 3.1 percentage points) and 768 likely voters (3.5 percentage points).