The Iowa Democratic Party announced the release of 100 percent of the state caucus results Thursday night, showing Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders neck and neck in their lead over the rest of the Democratic candidates. The results could change as more data is examined, and NBC has not called a winner in the race.
The Iowa Democrats' announcement comes after Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez called on state party officials to recanvass the results of Monday's caucuses amid growing concerns about their accuracy (see NBC News' review of the results).
Caucusgoers gathered at nearly 1,700 sites across Iowa on Monday night to tally support for their preferred candidates only for the count to be thrown into disarray when what Iowa Democrats called "inconsistencies" delayed the reporting of results.
The state has 41 pledged delegates up for grabs, and the high-stakes contest traditionally plays a major role in determining who is a legitimate contender in the race. Candidates in the crowded Democratic field needed to meet a threshold of support (at least 15 percent of attendees at most caucus sites) to become viable, or they saw supporters move on to someone else.
Highlights from the Iowa caucuses
- An NBC News review of the Iowa caucus vote finds the results are rife with potential errors, inconsistencies.
- DNC Chair Perez calls for recanvassing results amid growing concerns about their accuracy.
- Buttigieg, Sanders are neck and neck with nearly all the votes reported.
- Iowa caucus app was rushed and flawed from the beginning, experts say.
- Here's why more than one candidate can declare victory.
- Caucus chaos sparks fresh calls for an end to Iowa's leadoff status.
- Where to find Iowa race results.
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Where to find Iowa race results
Caucus doors close — and the action begins — at 8 p.m. ET.
We'll have live updates as soon as results start coming in, plus maps and county breakdowns, right here.
The view from the Warren camp
DES MOINES, Iowa — For the Warren campaign in Iowa, it's all about high turnout, a ground game built around a wide engagement of voters, and winning on state delegate equivalents, per a senior Warren adviser I spoke to Monday afternoon.
On turnout: The campaign built its ground game around engaging as wide a range of voters as possible, never making assumptions about where they’d find those supporters. The senior Warren aide said they could see turnout as high or higher than the record in 2008, but declined to give specific numbers.
This plays into the closing argument we've been hearing from Warren on unity. As one Warren aide told me over the weekend: Among those they've identified to caucus for Warren and who also caucused in 2016 split evenly between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.
Warren is trying to bridge the "moderate" and "progressive" lanes that we like to frame things in, but voters aren't necessarily thinking of it that way.
This senior adviser also notes the reputation of the Warren organizers, some of who have been on the ground here since March 2019, will be a big boon. Warren's team sees their people as motivated and energized — with surrogates, like Rep. Ayanna Pressley, D-Mass., visiting field offices throughout the day Monday to keep supporters engaged, amid the final get-out-the-caucus canvassing push.
And they argue that Warren was able to stay connected to Iowa despite the impeachment that kept her in Washington through tele-town halls, local TV and radio appearance, and national interviews — and that she was able to establish some momentum, if not in polling consistency, with things like The Des Moines Register endorsement and backing from notable Iowans.
Iowa precinct leaders report problems with app for reporting results
At least a dozen precinct leaders across Iowa are having issues downloading or logging into a new smartphone application used to report the caucus night results, potentially delaying the counting of the first round of results.
Chairs of four different counties said they had precinct leaders who experienced issues with the app, from receiving an error that their login wasn’t recognized to missing a cutoff time for downloading it. At least one — Laura Hubka, chair of the Howard County Democrats — said she declined to use the app.
The app is optional to use but was the preferred method for sending in results, according to the Iowa Democrat Party precinct leader manual. Those who can’t use the app will use pen and paper and call a dedicated hotline to report the results.
Mandy McClure, the Iowa Democratic Party communications director, said in a statement, “The IDP is working with any precinct chairs who want to use the optional tabulation application to make sure they are comfortable with it. We've always been aware that many precinct chairs prefer to call in results via a secure hotline, and have systems in place so they can do so."
Brett Niles, chair of the Linn County Democrats, said eight of his 86 temporary caucus chairs weren’t able to log in to the app. He reported hearing of “sporadic” issues in other counties.
“You’ve got volunteers spread out through the entire state. It’s tough to make sure everyone does as they’re supposed to,” Niles said.
Benjamin Pu contributed reporting.
Iowa Democrats look to ease concern about location changes
Iowa Democrats are trying to assuage concerns that around a dozen precinct caucus locations are changing at the last minute.
The party has been tweeting out various location changes for several caucus sites ahead of Monday night’s caucuses, which begin at 8 p.m. ET. These abrupt changes have sparked concerns about caucusgoers who may not be aware of the changes and therefore will show up at the wrong place, along with criticisms online that the changes are happening in an effort to tamp down turnout for certain candidates.
Kevin Geiken, executive director of the Iowa Democrats, said on Twitter that these changes are typical for caucuses.
"Caucus location changes are possible due to unforeseen circumstances like capacity reasons, environmental factors beyond our control, and more," he said. "We will always update you and the campaigns as soon as we know to ensure transparency and accessibility."
There are more than 1,600 precinct sites across Iowa on Monday, as Iowans make the first step toward selecting the presidential nominee.
Klobuchar puts Trump's impeachment trial at center of high-stakes closing pitch
BETTENDORF, Iowa — This isn’t how Sen. Amy Klobuchar thought the lead-up to the Iowa caucuses would go.
Instead of long stretches on the road for the kind of grassroots, folksy campaigning she perfected running for office next door, in her home state of Minnesota, Klobuchar spent the last two weeks in Washington, consumed by President Donald Trump's impeachment trial.
In her final, frenzied spin across Iowa over the weekend, the senator offered a simple closing argument: The allegations against Trump — and the furious partisan fights stirred by his impeachment — are exactly why she's running.
“I really see this election and my candidacy as really an extension of that, because what this is, this election, yes, it’s an economic check,” she told voters Saturday in a bike shop that served as overflow for the hundreds of people packed into a brewery next door. “But more than that, it is a decency check.”
Pressley celebrates birthday in Iowa: 'Y’all know what my wish is'
Rep. Ayanna Pressley, D-Mass., spent her birthday Monday campaigning in Iowa for Elizabeth Warren, as the Massachusetts senator was stuck in Washington for the impeachment trial.
When Pressley stopped into Warren’s Ankeny campaign office to rally volunteers before their last round of door-knocking, she was greeted with a birthday cake and candles and a rendition of "Happy Birthday to You."
Pressley said a great gift for her 46th birthday would be to get Warren elected as the 46th president.
“Y’all know what my wish is,” she said before blowing out the candles.
Caucusing while married
Editor’s note: The author, a writer at "Dateline NBC" with Lester Holt, is a friend of Laurie Sands and David Busiek and will follow what happens to them and the rest of the caucusgoers at Hoover High School in Des Moines for NBC News' live blog. Tune in for more posts as the day progresses.
DES MOINES, Iowa — Like a lot of couples across America this primary season, Laurie Sands and David Busiek are supporting different candidates. But in a caucus state, that means heading out to your local high school gym and very possibly competing against your spouse in real time all evening, trying to persuade friends and neighbors to support your chosen candidate — and not your partner’s.
Sands is supporting former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg; Busiek is backing Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn.
Sands, a former Des Moines school board member, has caucused every presidential election year since 1979. She says she supports Buttigieg because, “His values are values that unite us as a country. He’s all about inclusivity. When you volunteer for him, you follow ‘10 Rules of the Road’ for how we treat each other and those from other campaigns."
She adds, "He’s 38 but his age doesn’t reflect his experience, wisdom and creativity. Thomas Jefferson was 33 when he wrote Declaration of Independence!”
Busiek, a former news director at the CBS affiliate in Des Moines, was never able to air his political views publicly, but now that he is newly retired, he's attending his first caucus.
He called Klobuchar "bright, articulate and calm," adding that she was "very good" during the confirmation hearings for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, "very much the adult in the room." He added that he likes her "experience, age and emphasis on practical solutions" and that she’s a "Midwesterner.”
Sands says she wishes they were supporting the same candidate and adds that she hopes they don’t wind up going head-to-head for the exact same voters Monday night. “That would be tough.”
“We do so many things in alignment, and this is so important," she said. "So, to me, this is stressful.”
For Busiek? Not so much. “Our candidates are not so far apart," he said. "We’re ultimately working for the same things.”
ANALYSIS: Caucus game theory
By Tuesday morning, it should be obvious whether any of the Democratic campaigns struck deals to partner up — or simply executed a superior strategy — on caucus night.
The permutations of caucus game theory are endless. But here are a few things to think about as you watch tonight, and one big reason to be skeptical that the invisible hands of political operatives are able manipulate the process.
At each of the caucus locations across the state, there’s a first round of candidate selection. Candidates who receive 15 percent support are considered viable and those who don’t are considered not viable. The caucusgoers who sided with nonviable candidates are then allowed to realign, if they choose, in a second round. They can realign to boost the score for an already viable candidate or match up with a group of other caucusgoers to try to make a nonviable candidate viable.
Because it’s a multiround public voting system in which neighbors actively try to persuade each other to join the cluster for one candidate or another, there’s potentially a lot of room for dealmaking.
But it’s all complicated. A campaign that appears to be twisting arms too hard or that conspires with a second campaign to stab a third candidate in the back for its own benefit may see the tactic backfire on caucus night or in later stages of the nomination fight.
So, campaigns have to decide whether to deploy any strategy beyond simply persuading caucusgoers to back their own candidates, determine which other candidates the campaign would want to help or hurt, and judge which adversaries make good targets for potential dealmaking. And the answers to those questions might fluctuate depending on the caucus site and across the state as results from nearly 1,700 locations start to become clear.
That is, all the players are processing a lot of information at once, which means a bad move could be worse than no move at all. It’s a little less complicated if there’s a clear alignment between candidates on ideological grounds — say, Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who both represent the progressive wing of the Democratic electorate. But those candidates are also in competition with each other.
Former Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., who won the Iowa caucuses in 2004, told NBC News on Sunday that there’s usually a lot of talk but not much actual action.
“There are some conversations, but I think too much is made of the capacity to execute because people in Iowa are very independent,” Kerry said. “They don’t want to be mass-moved.”
Debunked claims about Iowa voter fraud pushed by conservative activists
Allegations of impending voter fraud in Iowa, pushed by conservative activists with debunked evidence, are being shared widely on Twitter ahead of the Iowa caucuses.
The viral claims originated Sunday with a tweet by Tom Fitton, president of the conservative legal group Judicial Watch.
“BIG: Eight Iowa counties have more voter registrations than citizens old enough to register,” Fitton posted, alongside a YouTube video of him interviewing a Judicial Watch attorney.
On Twitter, Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate called the claim “false” and posted a link to the county-by-county voter registration totals.
“They are updated monthly and available online for everyone to see,” he wrote.
Fitton, a vocal supporter of President Donald Trump, has previously posted claims that independent fact-checkers have rated false and has claimed without evidence that Democrats want “to steal elections.”
Fitton’s tweet has been retweeted more than 6,000 times and gained almost 9,000 likes. But it was Charlie Kirk’s tweet — which copied Fitton’s text without attribution — that went viral, earning almost 40,000 retweets and more than 56,000 likes. Kirk is the president of the conservative group Turning Point USA.
“Don’t let voter fraud steal the 2020 election,” Kirk added, urging users to retweet for a national Voter ID.
Allegations of voter fraud are one of the most popular topics in voter misinformation campaigns. Last week, Twitter announced a new tool that lets users report tweets with misleading information about how to participate in the election.
“We’re seeing a recent uptick in activity spreading false info about widespread voter fraud,” tweeted David Becker, the executive director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research, a nonprofit dedicated to election security and accessibility. “Again, the data on this is clear and conclusive — voter fraud is extremely rare, accounting for maybe dozens of votes out of hundreds of millions.”