Six-in-10 registered voters plan to vote early in the November general election, either by mail or at in-person early voting centers, according to a new TargetSmart + Dynata National Voter Insights Poll.
Forty-one percent plan to vote by mail and 19 percent plan to vote in-person early. Another 36 percent plan to vote in-person at their polling place on Election Day.
A majority of Democrats (68 percent) plan to either vote by mail (52 percent) or early in-person (16 percent). Only 29 percent of Democrats plan to vote in-person on Election Day, according to the poll, conducted May 21-27.
Among independents, 60 percent plan to either vote by mail (40 percent) or early in-person (20 percent) and 35 percent plan to vote in-person on Election Day.
Even though President Donald Trump and several other prominent Republicans have been opposed to expanding voting by mail, more than half of Republicans (53 percent) plan to either vote by mail (33 percent) or early in-person (20 percent). A sizable 45 percent of Republicans plan to vote in-person on Nov. 3.
In addition to partisan divides, the data show differences on how voters intend to cast their ballots in the general election by gender, age and education.
Sixty two percent of women plan to vote early, compared to 56 percent of men. Thirty nine percent of men said they plan to vote in-person on Election Day, compared to 33 percent of women.
Voters under 50 were more likely than voters over 50 to say they plan to vote early (62 percent to 57 percent, respectively).
Sixty three percent of college graduates plan to vote early, compared to 56 percent of voters without college degrees.
Among those who approve of the job President Trump is doing as president, a plurality (46 percent) plan to vote in-person on Election Day.
A majority of voters (69 percent) who disapprove of Trump plan to vote early.
Fifty-two percent of all voters said that expanded access to vote-by-mail would lead to higher levels of voter fraud. An overwhelmingly majority of Republicans (73 percent) agree that expanded access would lead to voter fraud, compared to half of Independents and only 34 percent of Democrats.
Overall, the percentage of voters who support expanded access to vote-by-mail has dropped from 73 percent in April to 65 percent now, partially driven by partisan differences.
Support for expanded access to vote-by-mail dropped 6 points among Democrats (90 percent to 84 percent) and 4 points among Independents (71 percent to 67 percent). Among Republicans, support to expand access to vote-by-mail has dropped 14 points (57 percent to 43 percent), indicating that how voters plan to cast ballots is an increasingly polarized issue by partisanship.
The TargetSmart/Dynata survey of 1,200 registered voters was conducted May 21-27, 2020. Six hundred respondents were interviewed over the telephone (79 percent cell phone, 21 percent landline) and 600 were interviewed online, via the Dynata online panel. The credibility interval (the theoretical margin of error for a blended-methodology poll) is +/-2.8 percentage points. The credibility interval for subgroups is larger and varies.