Super Tuesday polls: A state-by-state look at who's leading

Bernie Sanders is up in California, home of the biggest trove of delegates, although Joe Biden's big South Carolina win appears to be registering in recent surveys.
Image: A voter prepares her ballot during early Democratic primary voting in Universal City, Calif.
A voter prepares her ballot during early Democratic primary voting in Universal City, California, on Thursday, Feb. 27, 2020.Mario Tama / Getty Images

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By Jane C. Timm

Democratic voters across the country will make their choices for president known on Super Tuesday, when 14 states vote and more than 1,300 delegates are at stake.

The polling has seen Bernie Sanders, who won big in Nevada's caucuses last week, and Joe Biden, who dominated in South Carolina on Saturday, running one and two.

Here's the state of the Democratic race in all the states in play Tuesday.

California primary

California is the cash cow of Super Tuesday, with a whopping 415 pledged delegates at stake. Sanders has a commanding 14.7-point lead here, according to the RealClearPolitics poll average.

A poll taken after Biden's big win in South Carolina suggests the race may still be fluid, however. The former vice president saw a 7-point bump in a Point Blank Political survey in the state, cutting into Sanders' lead. Still, the majority of Californians vote by mail, meaning late-breaking changes in the race — such as Pete Buttigieg's and Amy Klobuchar's dropping out and endorsing Biden, effectively consolidating the moderate vote — may be less of a factor.

Elizabeth Warren is polling in third, according to RealClearPolitics' average, with Mike Bloomberg in fourth, although Bloomberg's self-funded campaign has a distinct cash advantage in the state's expensive media markets.

Texas primary

Texas has 228 pledged delegates up for grabs, the next-largest trove. Biden enjoyed a strong lead in polls here for months until his losses in Iowa and New Hampshire, after which Sanders, who performed well in those contests, shot up. Sanders now has a 6-point lead here, according to the RealClearPolitics average, with Biden in second and Bloomberg in third.

An NBC News/Marist poll from late February gave Sanders a 15-point lead over Biden — Sanders gets the support of 34 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, and Biden gets 19 percent — while the University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll from earlier last month showed Sanders with a 2-point lead.

North Carolina primary

North Carolina, a general election swing state, offers 110 delegates. Biden has a 6-point lead over Sanders, according to the RealClearPolitics average. Bloomberg is third, according to the RealClearPolitics average.

East Carolina University released a poll Monday showing Biden 4 points ahead of Sanders, but in an NBC News/Marist poll released days earlier, they were essentially tied.

Virginia primary

Sanders and Bloomberg were neck and neck in a recent Monmouth University poll, tied at 22 percent. Biden trailed them, at 18 percent.

But the race appears fluid here, too. Just 1 in 4 voters were firm about their choices, the survey said, and 20 percent of voters threw their support behind Buttigieg and Klobuchar, who exited the race on Sunday and Monday, respectively. Virginia has 99 delegates up for grabs.

Massachusetts primary

Sanders is leading in Elizabeth Warren's home state, according to recent polls, which has 91 delegates. He was leading by 2 points in a Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll taken in the last three days of February, trailed by Warren. A WBUR survey from earlier in February found Sanders with an 8-point lead.

There may well be some movement in the race here, too. Buttigieg was neck and neck with Bloomberg for third place in both polls before he dropped out.

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Colorado primary

Sanders has a double-digit lead in this state's contest, according to two recent polls from Magellan and Data for Progress, with Warren in second place.

Buttigieg's departure could inject some movement: He was polling in third place, according to those surveys.

Minnesota primary

Klobuchar was leading her home state by 6 points, at 29 percent, according to a Star Tribune/MPR News poll last month, until she dropped out and endorsed Biden on Monday.

Klobuchar was trailed by Sanders, at 23 percent, and Warren, at 11 percent. Biden was in fourth place, at 8 percent. Minnesota offers 75 delegates.

Tennessee primary

There hasn't been any polling in months in the race for this state's 64 delegates, but an NBC News/Survey Monkey poll in July gave Biden a double-digit lead.

Alabama primary

There hasn't been any recent polling in the state's Democratic primary, but Biden was leading by double digits in an NBC News/Survey Monkey online poll released in July. It’s the power of the state's black voters, decisive in Democratic victories here — much like what fueled his victory in South Carolina — that could position Biden well in the race for Alabama's 52 pledged delegates.

Oklahoma primary

Biden and Bloomberg were the front-runners in two recent polls in the race for this state's 37 delegates. The most recent, a Sooner Poll for local television, had the former vice president up by just 1 point.

Arkansas primary

Bloomberg held a slim lead in Arkansas' primary in a Hendrix College poll taken in early February, with Biden just behind him. There are 31 delegates up for grabs in this race.

Utah primary

There have been only two primary polls this year, but both show Sanders in the lead — he had a 12-point lead in a Salt Lake Tribune/Suffolk University survey, for example.

There may yet be some movement in the race for the state's 29 delegates, however; 21 percent of voters in the Salt Late Tribune survey said they were undecided.

Maine primary

Maine's neighboring senator Sanders was up 9 points in a Colby College poll taken last month, the only recent poll in the state, which will award 24 delegates based on the primary result.

Buttigieg was second, with 16 percent, suggesting that the race may be fluid here, too, as his voters realign.

Vermont primary

This is Sanders' home state, and a Vermont Public Radio survey last month had him up by 38 points. Vermont offers 16 delegates.