The latest political news and analysis from the campaign trail:
Kamala Harris closes field offices, lays off organizers in New Hampshire
MANCHESTER, N.H. — Sen. Kamala Harris’, D-Calif, New Hampshire campaign is closing three field offices in Nashua, Portsmouth and Keene, and has cancelled her trip to New Hampshire that was originally scheduled for next week, saying that she is going "all in" on the Iowa caucuses as a strategy for winning the Democratic nomination.
Harris hasn't been to New Hampshire since Sept. 7 for the New Hampshire Democratic Party Convention. The campaign’s headquarters in Manchester will remain open with a scaled down staff, the campaign tells NBC News. The campaign's entire field organizing team has been laid off.
While the campaign said Harris' name will be on the ballot for the New Hampshire primary, she will not be filing in person at the state house in Concord, N.H., an event considered to be a tradition for nearly all presidential candidates. It is still being determined if an in-person surrogate will file in Harris’ place but the campaign says that the paperwork will most likely be mailed in.
"Senator Harris and this team set out with one goal — to win the nomination and defeat Donald Trump in 2020,” Nate Evans, Harris Campaign New Hampshire Communications Director, said in a statement provided to NBC News. “To do so, the campaign has made a strategic decision to realign resources to go all-in on Iowa, resulting in office closures and staff realignments and reductions in New Hampshire. The campaign will continue to have a staff presence in New Hampshire but the focus is and will continue to be on Iowa. Senator Harris will not visit New Hampshire on November 6 and 7, but her name will still be placed on the primary ballot."
Just Wednesday, Harris was pressed on pulling resources out of New Hampshire as part of her revamped focus on Iowa, but she said that that she was still committed to the state.
“We are still committed to New Hampshire — but we needed to make difficult decisions. That's what campaigns require at this stage of the game,” Harris told reporters. “And so we have made those difficult decisions based on what we see to be our path toward victory.”
Tom Steyer unveils plan for rural communities
DES MOINES, Iowa — Billionaire businessman Tom Steyer unveiled a new plan Friday aimed at improving the lives of the 60 million people living in rural America, labeling his new policy “Partnerships with Rural Communities.” The Democratic presidential candidate has typically focused on drawing attention to his ideas for government reform and climate change action, and his new rural plan is one of just a few comprehensive policies released outside of those two topics since he declared his candidacy in August.
On the campaign trail, Steyer often touts his familial connection in Iowa — he grew up visiting his aunt and uncle in Iowa City — and has worked to connect with rural and blue collar workers, despite his billionaire background. The eight page plan addresses issues of concern to rural residents and those who live in Tribal nations, and puts a multi-billion dollar price tag on investing in areas like rural broadband, health care and education.
Steyer plans to commit more than $100 billion toward broadband and fiber access, and another investment of more than $100 billion over ten years to improve infrastructure — ensuring updated roads, bridges and levees are resilient to climate impacts. In addition to working to prevent rural hospital closures, Steyer plans to “revolutionize the way America addresses mental health care” by investing another $100 billion over a decade towards mandating insurance companies to cover mental health care and increased access to telemedicine.
In order to attract young people to rural areas, Steyer proposes expanding the National Public Service Plan to place at least 200,000 funded Americorps and Climate Corps members in rural communities. Appealing to farmers, Steyer wants to build upon the Made in Rural America Initiative to connect American farmers to global markets, emphasizing the need for fair and open trade policies.
While most candidates have hit similar points in their rural policies, Steyer adds community banking to his plan, following his experience starting a not-for-profit bank with his wife, Kat Taylor. He argues that expanded funding for Community Development Financial institutions would promote financial education, reduce predatory lending and foster entrepreneurship in rural areas — leading to economic development.
One of Steyer's main campaign priorities, fighting climate change, isn't lost in this plan. In his rural plan, Steyer would contribute to his clean energy economy goals by investing more than $60 billion for rural grid modernization and $50 billion in rural renewable energy resources like solar and emergency power centers.
Bernie Sanders files for New Hampshire primary
CONCORD, NH -- For the second time, Sen. Bernie Sanders will appear as a presidential candidate on the New Hampshire ballot after making it official Thursday morning at the Secretary of State’s office.
“I just want to say that I think we have an excellent chance to win here again in New Hampshire, to defeat the most dangerous president in the history of this country and to transform our economy and government so that finally it represents all of us and not just the one percent,” Sanders said standing behind the historic filing desk.
Officially signing the paperwork next to New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, Sanders then handed over the $1000 filing fee, making a joke that it’s guaranteed not to bounce. Signing the commemorative poster, Sanders opted for the message, “Forward Together.”
Sanders talked nearly at every chance he had, something he is not known for doing. In a lengthy press conference, Sanders was asked about rivals Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden, with whom he is in a tight three-way race, according to the latest state poll.
Sanders forcefully took on Biden regarding super PACs and Medicare for All. Biden's campaign recently softened his opposition to accepting super PAC support until he's elected president and can push for campaign finance reform.
“I've known Joe for many years and I consider Joe to be a friend, but campaigns are about ideas, they're about values,” Sanders said. “If my memory is correct, Joe Biden once said, and I'm paraphrasing, you've got to be careful about people who have super PACs and who they will end up being responsible for. And in this campaign, Joe as I understand it has not done particularly well in getting a lot of donations from working-class people.”
He also added on healthcare, “I would hope that Joe Biden explains to the American people how under his plan which maintains a dysfunctional, wasteful and cruel health care system, a system today which is costing us twice as much per person as do the people of any other industrialized country pay.”
The senator also reacted to Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV)’s comments that he would not support Sanders’ progressive agenda if elected president.
“I would say to Joe Manchin that maybe he should start worrying about the needs of the working class in his state rather than protecting corporate interests,” Sanders said.”
Sanders then headed outside for a rainy afternoon rally with supporters in front of the statehouse.
“It's a different election,” Sanders told NBC News’ Shaquille Brewster, who asked him moments after filing if there’s more pressure this time around for the New Hampshire primary.
“Now we're running not just essentially against one person, we're running against 19 others. So it's a different dynamic, but I am absolutely confident,” adding, “I think there is no other campaign out there that has the kind of grassroots support that we have.”
Two moderate, swing-district Dems only two to buck party on impeachment rules vote
WASHINGTON — Just two Democratic House members crossed party lines Thursday to vote against the House's plan to move forward in its impeachment inquiry of President Trump.
The vast majority of House Democrats voted with their party on the measure that lays out the plan for public hearings, the inquiry's format and codifies rules for lawmakers and their staffs. Only Reps. Collin Peterson, D-Minn., and Jeff Van Drew, D-N.J., defected, with Republicans all voting in opposition.
Independent Rep. Justin Amash, the Michigander who recently left the Republican Party voicing opposition to Trump, voted with the Democrats in favor of the measure.
In a statement, Peterson called the impeachment process "hopelessly partisan" and said he has "serious concerns with the way the closed-door depositions were run." He added that he wouldn't "make a decision on impeachment until all the facts have been presented.”
Van Drew said in a statement that he is worried the impeachment "inquiry will further divide the country tearing it apart at the seams and will ultimately fail in the Senate." But he admitted that now that the vote is behind him, he'll make a "judgment call based on all the evidence presented by these investigations."
Both Peterson and Van Drew represent congressional districts that voted for Trump in 2016. They both are among the few Democrats not supporting the impeachment push, but they could still face challenges in 2020 from the right.
Peterson's district is the most Trump-friendly district in the nation that is represented by a Democrat in Congress. And it's not even close.
Trump won Peterson’s Minnesota district by 30 points, 61 percent to 31 percent, in 2016. Peterson — known for his work on agriculture issues — has long defied Republican efforts to oust him since he was first elected in 1990.
Van Drew's southern New Jersey congressional district supported President Obama in 2012 by a margin of 54 percent to 46 percent. But Trump won the district 50 percent to 46 percent. Despite that shift, Van Drew won the seat in 2018 after then-GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo announced his retirement.
Trump World Series television ad evokes al-Baghdadi raid
WASHINGTON — President Trump's re-election campaign dropped a new ad during last night's World Series that emphasizes the president's role in Saturday's raid that killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
The spot is similar to others the campaign has run, including many common themes across Trump ads—video of Trump at the southern border to tout his border security push, video of workers to promote the economic performance, and video of regular Trump campaign targets like Speaker Nancy Pelosi and former special counsel Robert Mueller.
But it also features a picture of Trump and top aides monitoring the raid in the Situation Room, video of an air strike and a picture of al-Baghdadi with an 'X' drawn over him.
"Obliterating ISIS—their caliphate destroyed, their terrorist leader dead. But the Democrats would rather focus on impeachment and phony investigations ignoring of real issues," a narrator says.
"But that's not stopping Donald Trump. He's no Mr. Nice Guy, but sometimes it takes a Donald Trump to change Washington. "
Trump's campaign has also run a series of Facebook ads since the Saturday night raid evoking the raid.
"Under the fierce leadership of our Commander-in-Chief, the radical ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is dead. Terrorists should never sleep soundly knowing that the U.S. will completely destroy them. Our Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen and Marines are the very best, and thanks to their bravery and President Trump’s leadership, WE ARE KEEPING AMERICA SAFE!" one ad reads.
Buttigieg becomes first major Democratic candidate to file for N.H. primary
CONCORD, N.H. — Pete Buttigieg on Wednesday became the first major presidential candidate to file for the first-in-the-nation primary ballot here in 2020, signing the official documents and handing over a $1,000 check to N.H. Secretary of State Bill Gardner.
As Buttigieg walked to the historic filing desk in Gardner’s office, cheering supporters lined up to greet the South Bend, Indiana mayor.
From now until November 15, every 2020 presidential candidate must file with the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s office in order to appear on the state’s primary ballot in February. This cycle marks the 100th anniversary of the state's presidential primary.
Most are expected to appear in person for the time-honored tradition, but surrogates may file on behalf of the candidates themselves. For example, Vice President Mike Pence is slated to file for President Donald Trump next week.
Moments after he sealed his spot, Buttigieg was asked if he’s ready to be president.
"We better be,” he said. “I think we've demonstrated to the country that we're ready to do this. And it feels like a lot of people out there are too, which is exciting."
Per tradition, Buttigieg then took questions from local media before visiting the state house gift shop, where he signed campaign merchandise to contribute to the locale’s collection of presidential campaign memorabilia.
On his way out, Buttigieg crossed paths with a 4th grade class at the state house for a field trip and heard from students who said they hoped he would win the White House, with one student even seizing the moment in front of the cameras to “make a statement” and declaring he would want President Buttigieg to end world hunger. Buttigieg applauded the remarks before being hugged by a few of the students.
In an interview with NBC News, Buttigieg argued that voters should trust him on foreign policy, even over more experienced candidates like former Vice President Joe Biden.
"Around the world is people from new generations stepping up in leadership, many of them elected under the age of 40 as I would be,” he said. “I'm thinking about the President of France, the Prime Minister of New Zealand, the new leader of El Salvador. Leaders from a new generation around the world shaping the future of geopolitics in a way that's going to be responsive to the 21st century."
During a brief rally outside the state house Wednesday, Buttigieg embraced the moment.
“We’ve been at it for a good year or so, but this — this feels different,” he told the couple hundred supporters gathered for the occasion. “We are officially a candidate in the New Hampshire primary for president of the United States.”
He reiterated the sentiment at his last event of the day at a town hall in Peterborough.
“There's something about putting your name on that sheet of paper that reminds you that you are part of a tradition, that you are part of something bigger than even the 2020 presidential election,” Buttigieg said, “although it's hard to think of something much bigger in terms of consequence than what is about to happen in this country.”
Harris cuts staff and shifts focus to Iowa amid slump at polls
WASHINGTON — California Sen. Kamala Harris' presidential campaign is laying off "several dozen" staffers, moving field staff to Iowa and slashing pay to top campaign hands amid her recent decline in the polls.
Harris' campaign made the announcements in a memo released Wednesday from Juan Rodriguez, the campaign manager.
In that memo, Rodriguez announced that the campaign will "reduce the size of our headquarters staff" in Baltimore while also shifting field staff from Baltimore, New Hampshire, Nevada and California to go "all in on Iowa."
The campaign’s South Carolina operation will remain unchanged.
“There are multiple ways to assess and move forward, and to ensure we’re incredibly competitive in Iowa, not only with a robust organizing campaign — we have more than 100 staff in the state and that’s not changing — and to make sure we have a strong paid media presence in those last days when people are marking their decision, and that requires tough decisions,” Harris campaign communications director Lily Adams told NBC News.
Harris, who joked at the end of last month that she was “moving to Iowa,” has spent 15 days in the Hawkeye State, making five trips there in October. The campaign memo also said Harris would be spending Thanksgiving there.
“She is determined to earn the support of every caucus goer she can in the next 96 days,” the memo said.
Rodriguez also wrote that he and all of the campaign's consultants will take pay cuts, and they will "trim and renegotiate contracts."
Harris raised just under $12 million in the last quarter, but her fundraising efforts have put her behind frontrunners like Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg. She spent almost $3 million more than her campaign took in during that quarter, which stretched from July through September. And she ended the quarter with $10.5 million in the bank and held $911,000 in debt.
Pro-Biden super PAC officially launches, calling for country to 'unite'
MAQUOKETA, IOWA —A new super PAC aimed at boosting Joe Biden’s candidacy launched Wednesday focused on a key plank of the former vice president’s platform: unifying the country at a time of division.
The new Unite The Country PAC debuted with a 60-second video featuring Biden in his own words appealing to bring the nation together and professing his optimism for the country’s future.
“It’s time to unite the country. Are you in?” the spot concludes.
The primary goal of the new organization, though, is to provide a much-needed financial shot in the arm for the fragile Democratic frontrunner, whose fundraising pass has lagged even as his campaign has continued to spend heavily. Biden allies argue that no other Democratic candidate is facing incoming fire both within his party and from President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign.
In a statement announcing its formation, the super PAC said it will focus its efforts “on communicating to voters why Joe Biden is not only the best choice to defeat Trump in 2020, but is also the best candidate to restore honor and integrity to the White House and our nation on day one.”
“We know Joe Biden is the best candidate to defeat the President, but so does Donald Trump. We will not sit idly by while Trump spreads lies about a man who has served this country with honor and dignity,” said Steve Schale, a strategist for Unite the Country Strategist said.
Biden had personally disavowed the support of any outside super PAC even before launching his candidacy in April. But as supporters of the former vice president have expressed renewed concern about his ability to finance a long-term campaign, particularly with the GOP apparatus already training its significant war chest on him, his campaign relented, saying in a statement that “it is not surprising that those who are dedicated to defeating Donald Trump are organizing in every way permitted by current law to bring an end to his disastrous presidency.”
The board of the new Super PAC includes a number of veteran Democratic strategists and longtime Biden allies. Schale was a top official in President Obama’s campaigns in the key battleground state of Florida, and also played a role with an organization that sought to draft Biden into the 2016 race.
Schale told NBC News the focus of the PAC’s efforts would be making an affirmative case for Biden.
"We are here to talk about Joe Biden, and defend him from the unprecedented attacks from Trump, not to attack other Democrats,” he said.
The organization’s board will be chaired by Mark Doyle, a former Biden aide and nonprofit CEO. Fellow Biden alumnus John MacNeil will serve as secretary, and Larry Rasky, who worked on Biden’s 1988 and 2008 campaigns, will serve as Treasurer.
Julianna Smoot, the deputy campaign manager for Obama’s 2012 campaign and the 2008 national finance director, will also play a key role.
Trump campaign launches $1 million anti-impeachment television campaign
WASHINGTON — President Trump's re-election campaign is out with a new television spot blasting impeachment as a "scam" and a "bunch of bull," as the president looks to sway public opinion in key Democratic primary states as well as some swing states pivotal to his own 2020 bid.
The campaign started airing the ad Wednesday morning, shortly after the campaign booked $1.15 million in time across Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Washington D.C. from Oct. 30 through Nov. 5, according to spending data from Advertising Analytics.
The breakdown: $400,000 of that total is booked for Nevada, $387,000 is booked for Pennsylvania, $257,000 is booked for Iowa, $64,000 is booked in Boston (which covers most of New Hampshire) and $42,600 is booked in Washington D.C.
In the spot, a smattering of speakers take turns lambasting impeachment in a variety of settings—at home, in offices, and on factory floors.
"Impeachment is a scam."
Impeachment is a bunch of bull."
"Impeachment is a joke."
"It’s a partisan witch hunt."
"They can’t get over the fact that Donald Trump won. The Democrats are trying to overturn the election. Ignore how we voted. Donald Trump is an excellent president. Over 6 million new jobs. My job is here, not China. My paycheck is bigger. Black and Hispanic women are finally gaining. Donald Trump is my president."
Public sentiment appears to be creeping toward supporting impeachment, but strong majorities voters are still not sold on removing Trump from office.
Warren gets influential Iowa endorsement
WASHINGTON — Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has nabbed the endorsement of Iowa Democratic State Senator Zach Wahls, NBC News has learned.
Wahls, who first rose to national prominence in 2011 with an emotional speech defending his lesbian mothers, is now a rising star in Iowa Democratic politics. And at the age of 28, he could help energize younger voters in the Hawkeye State behind Warren’s presidential campaign.
In a phone interview with NBC News Tuesday night Wahls said that, for him, the biggest themes of this race are both understanding how President Donald Trump won in 2016 and how Democrats can beat him in 2020. “I think Senator Warren offers the clearest explanation on both of those two points,” he said.
He described the Massachusetts senator as “infectiously optimistic about the future of the country."
"So many people want to feel good about politics again," he said, "and she makes you feel good about politics again.”
The Iowa state senator representing parts of Eastern Iowa met Warren in May, and the two have stayed in touch throughout the campaign. But he also cites a “personal connection” to the candidate in his endorsement reasoning: they’re both policy wonks.
He spotted a chart in an early announcement video for Warren that illustrated the diverging paths between worker productivity and hourly compensation. While the labels were hard to make out in the video, “I knew what it was,” Wahls, who has a degree in public policy, said with a laugh. “The first time [Warren] called me, that was most of the conversation,” he said.
Other 2020 candidates have appeared with Wahls over the course of this 2020 campaign. Over the summer, several Democratic presidential hopefuls — including South Ben Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar — appeared at a fundraiser for him.
The endorsement comes as Warren heads back to the state for several days of campaigning, and after receiving the endorsement of Iowa Native, now-California Democratic Rep. Katie Porter.
Yes, late-breaking and undecided voters do exist — and matter
WASHINGTON — In today’s highly polarized political times, you might think that undecided, late-breaking voters are an extinct species — akin to the passenger pigeon and the Dodo bird.
And the organization has built a polling model to measure how these late-moving voters might break on Election Day, as well as to determine how to target these voters and spend its final resources.
“Attitudes aren’t fixed,” said Nick Gourevitch, partner and managing directorof the Global Strategy Group, who was one of the lead Democratic pollsters who created this model for the DGA.
“It is enough to make a difference in some places,” he added.
The DGA and its pollsters developed this model after Kentucky’s surprising gubernatorial result four years ago, when Democratic internal polls — as well as the public ones — showed Democrat Jack Conway with a small but consistent lead.
But Republican Matt Bevin won that contest — by nearly 9 points.
After Bevin’s victory, the DGA’s pollsters conducted a post-election panel survey with respondents from previous polling, and they discovered two things.
One, the undecided voters broke overwhelmingly for Bevin, the Republican.
And two, a sizable number of Conway voters in their polling defected to Bevin and the GOP.
After further studying this kind of late movement in the 2016 gubernatorial races of Indiana, Missouri, Montana and West Virginia, the DGA and its pollsters built a statistical model to better predict how these late-breaking voters can affect races.
Part of the model is based on a simple question: would voters consider supporting the other candidate or is their choice locked in? The answers allow them to predict if particular voters might defect from their stated choice.
And for undecided voters, the model uses information from the voter file, plus answers on other polling questions, to determine how they might break.
A year later, the late-breaking model pretty much nailed the results in Virginia’s 2017 gubernatorial race, which Democrat Ralph Northam ultimately won.
The Democrats’ final internal pre-election tracking poll showed Northam with a 5-point lead over Republican Ed Gillespie, with a combined 8 percent saying they were undecided or supporting a third-party candidate.
When the late-breaking model was added to those numbers, Northam’s lead over Gillespie grew to 11 points, 55 percent to 44 percent.
He ended up winning by 9 points, 54 percent to 45 percent.
The model also closely reflected the results of last year’s gubernatorial races in Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Maine and New Mexico.
The takeaway? Undecided and late-breaking voters do matter.
That was evident from the 2016 exit polls (when Trump overwhelmingly won voters who decided in the last week in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida), as well as the exit polls in 2018 (when Democrats won late-deciding voters by 6 points).
And it’s evident from the Democrats’ polling model in their gubernatorial races, says Gourevitch, the Democratic pollster.
“It’s definitely been helpful to us in terms of … knowing the range of possibilities and outcomes,” he said.