The latest political news and analysis from the campaign trail:
New Monmouth poll leaves Yang, Steyer and Booker on outside looking in for January debate
WASHINGTON — None of the Democratic presidential hopefuls currently on the bubble for next week's debate made any strides towards qualifying for the event with the new results of Monmouth University's New Hampshire primary poll, as the top four candidates remain in a logjam at the top.
Former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Vice President Joe Biden topped the poll with 20 percent and 19 percent respectively of likely New Hampshire primary voters. Vermont Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., were closed behind with 18 percent and 15 percent respectively.
Then there's a significant gap between the top four and the rest of the field.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., finished with 6 percent; Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and philanthropist Tom Steyer finished with 4 percent each; businessman Andrew Yang finished with 3 percent; Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet finished with 2 percent; and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker finished with 1 percent.
The poll shows Buttigieg and Sanders both gaining steam in overall support —Buttigieg's share went up 10 points from Monmouth's last New Hampshire poll in September, while Sanders' rose 6 points. By contrast, Warren's share dropped 12 points from that September poll.
The new results found Sanders with the highest favorable rating at 69 percent, followed by Warren's 64 percent, as well as Biden and Buttigieg both tied at 62 percent.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick's 32 percent unfavorable score was higher than all other Democrats tested, followed by Biden's 29 percent, Warren's 27 percent and Steyer's 26 percent.
The top five candidates in the poll — Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders and Warren — have all qualified for next week's Democratic presidential debate in Iowa. But the rest of the field fell short of the mark needed to move closer to securing a spot on the stage.
Candidates need to raise money from at least 225,000 unique donors and hit a poll threshold of either 4 polls of 5 percent or two early-state polls of 7 percent in order to qualify.
Steyer still needs two polls of at least 5 percent to qualify; Yang needs either three of at least five percent or two early-state polls at 7 percent; while Booker hasn't hit the mark in any poll.
All three have hit the donation requirement, according to their campaigns.
While Steyer and Yang both appeared on last month's debate stage, Booker didn't qualify.
Monmouth polled 404 likely voters between Jan. 3 and Jan. 7, and the poll has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed by youth-led climate group Sunrise Movement
WASHINGTON — Sunrise Movement, a political action organization of youth climate change activists, has endorsed Vermont Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign.
Announcing the endorsement in a video on Twitter, the group pointed to a series of natural disasters to argue that Sanders is the best candidate to immediately address a climate crisis.
"We are seeing that the climate crisis isn't 30 or 40 or 50 years in the future, it is right now. We need a president in office who understands the immediate threat of that crisis, and Bernie Sanders is that guy," Varshini Prakash, a co-founder and the executive director of the group, said in the video.
"We're endorsing Bernie Sanders for president because he has proven again and again and again that he understands this issue. He understands its scope, he understands the severity, he understands that it's a social-justice issue, that it's about racial and economic justice, that it's about the fight of our lives."
The organization, which boasts 10,000 members and more than 300 chapters, voted for Sanders overwhelmingly over Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
Climate change is one of the pillars of Sanders’ campaign. The senator spends time discussing what he calls “an existential crisis” during nearly every campaign stop, asking crowds to think about images they’ve seen of Australia wildfires, and recent flooding in Venice, Italy.
While the nod isn't necessarily surprising, it's a boost to Sanders' already-energized young base of support.
Sunrise Movement activists often attend Sanders campaign events, and the senator has repeatedly singled them out when he saw their t-shirts, to commend them for their work.
In December, Sunrise Movement released a scorecard ranking the top presidential candidate’s plans to tackle climate change, in which Sanders received top marks with 183 out of 200 possible points.
The organization will be at an event with Sanders and surrogates Reps. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., and Ro Khanna, D-Calif., on Jan. 12 in Iowa City, Iowa to formally announce the endorsement.
Here's where the top Democratic candidates are spending on the early-state airwaves
WASHINGTON — Yesterday, we showed you how former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and philanthropist Tom Steyer have spent more than $200 million combined on television and radio advertising.
But that's far from the whole story.
Bloomberg isn't even competing in the early states, and while Steyer has spent more than $50 million in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina alone, he's not polling in the upper echelon of candidates in any of those states.
Taking stock of the ad spending in the early states tells an interesting story: Former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren are spending virtually all of their ad budget in Iowa; former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Vermont Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders are turning their deep pockets into huge ad budgets; and none of the top candidates are really spending on ads in Nevada yet.
Here's a look at what the candidates expected to be on next week's debate stage are spending on television and radio ads in early states (Data through Jan. 8, 2020 courtesy of Advertising Analytics).
Former Vice President Joe Biden
- Iowa: $2.7 million
- New Hampshire: $5,429
- Nevada: $1,329
- South Carolina: $15,000
Former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg
- Iowa: $7.6 million
- New Hampshire: $1.4 million
- Nevada: $71,000
- South Carolina: $941,000
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar
- Iowa: $1.9 million
- New Hampshire: $665,000
- Nevada: $0
- South Carolina: $0
Vermont Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders
- Iowa: $6.7 million
- New Hampshire: $3.5 million
- Nevada: $145,000
- South Carolina: $1,640
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren
- Iowa: $3.4 million
- New Hampshire: $0
- Nevada: $0
- South Carolina: $0
Tom Perez: January Democratic debate could be moved for impeachment trial
WASHINGTON — Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez said that next week's Democratic debate could be postponed if the Senate is in the midst its impeachment trial of President Trump that day.
In an interview on MSNBC Tuesday, Perez said that "Democrats and our senators can walk and chew gum. Obviously, if there’s a trial on the 14th, then we’ll move the debate. If there’s not, then we’re gonna have the debate, and at the moment, all systems are go, and so we’re gonna move forward."
The Democratic debate is set to be held on Tuesday, Jan. 14 in Des Moines, Iowa ahead of the state's caucus. Only five candidates have qualified for the debate so far, and three of those candidates will be participating in the Senate's impeachment trial: Sens. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.
Former Vice President Joe Biden and former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg have also qualified to appear at Tuesday's debate.
Biden: Trump is bringing America "dangerously close" to war
Speaking at times directly to the president himself, former Vice President Joe Biden said President Donald Trump has a constitutional obligation to work with Congress and communicate to the American people his strategy for confronting Iran, while faulting him for putting the U.S. on the brink of war.
Biden, in a foreign policy address that was hastily added to his schedule on a trip to New York, explicitly sought to demonstrate the kind of presidential leadership that he said Trump was failing to offer at a moment of significant peril for the nation.
"A president who says he wants to end endless war in the Middle East is bringing us dangerously close to starting a new one,” he said. “A president who says he wants out of the region sends more than 18,000 additional troops to deal with a crisis of his own making. And an administration that claims its actions have made Americans safer in the same breath urges them to leave Iraq because of increased danger.”
Biden said he had no illusions about the threat Iran posed to the region and to the world. But he said there was “a smart way to counter them and a self-defeating way. Trump’s approach is demonstrably the latter.”
Biden focused his remarks squarely on Trump as his campaign has sought to use the escalating confrontation with Iran to underscore the former vice president’s decades of experience in foreign policy. There was no acknowledgment of or response to renewed criticism from some of his Democratic rivals of his own record, particularly his 2002 vote to authorize the use of force against Iraq.
"Donald Trump's short-sighted America-first dogmatism has come home to roost,” he said, as the prospect of the U.S. being bogged down by another war would only further enable China and Russia to expand their “spheres of influence.”
Beyond Trump’s specific actions, Biden was strongly critical of what he characterized as an anti-democratic approach to the presidency. At one point he referred directly to him about what he said were the obligations of his job, “Mr. President — not ‘Dear Leader’ or ‘Supreme Leader,'" Biden said.
"The American people do not want, and our Constitution will not abide, a president who rules by fiat and demands obedience," he added.
Sanders' dig at Biden over Iraq, trade evokes his 2016 criticism of Clinton
WASHINGTON — Engaged in a familiar dogfight atop the Democratic presidential primary, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., on Monday lobbed attacks at former Vice President Joe Biden almost identical to ones he used against his chief 2016 rival, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
“Joe Biden voted and helped lead the effort for the war in Iraq, the most dangerous foreign policy blunder in the modern history of this country,” Sanders said Monday night on CNN.
“Joe Biden voted for the disastrous trade agreements, like NAFTA, and permanent normal trade relations with China, which cost us millions of jobs," he added, before asking whether those votes would play well in Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, three states Clinton lost in 2016.
The jabs on the Iraq war vote and NAFTA echo lines he used against Clinton in the heat of the 2016 primary.
“Senator Clinton heard the same evidence I did. She voted for that disastrous war, the worst foreign policy blunder in the modern history of America,” Sanders said at a rally in Brooklyn in April 2016.
“Secretary Clinton and I disagree on trade policy. She supported virtually every disastrous trade agreement from NAFTA to permanent normal trade relations to China, trade agreements that has cost us millions of decent-paying jobs.”
In his recent CNN interview, Sanders also cast doubt that Biden’s record would be able to energize Democrats to defeat President Donald Trump in November.
“If we're going to beat Trump, we need turnout,” Sanders said. “And to get turnout, you need energy and excitement. And I don't think that that kind of record is going to bring forth the energy we need to defeat Trump.”
Mike Bloomberg and Tom Steyer have spent over $200 million combined on TV, radio advertising
WASHINGTON — If you think you’ve seen hundreds of TV ads by presidential candidates former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and philanthropist Tom Steyer this presidential cycle, you probably have.
The two Democrats have spent more than $200 million combined over the television and radio airwaves, according to ad-spending data from Advertising Analytics. Bloomberg's dished out $142 million on ads as of Jan. 7, and Steyer kicked in an additional $67 million.
Steyer’s ad spending has been concentrated in early nominating states like Iowa and New Hampshire, while Bloomberg has focused on the states and media markets that come after those February contests.
The gap between those two candidates and the rest of the field is enormous, with Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg at a total of $10 million nationally as of Tuesday — followed by businessman Andrew Yang at $6.6 million, President Trump at $5.7 million, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at $3.3 million and former Vice President Joe Biden at $2.6 million.
Total TV and radio ad spending (as of Jan. 7)
- Bloomberg: $142 million
- Steyer: $67 million
- Sanders: $10 million
- Buttigieg: $10 million
- Yang: $6.6 million
- Trump: $5.7 million
- Warren: $3.3 million
- Biden: $2.6 million
Iowa TV and radio ad spending (as of Jan. 7)
- Steyer: $11.7 million
- Buttigieg: $7.5 million
- Sanders: $6.5 million
- Yang: $4.6 million
- Warren: $3.2 million
- Biden: $2.6 million
- Klobuchar: $1.8 million
New Hampshire TV and radio ad spending (as of Jan. 7)
- Steyer: $13.9 million
- Sanders: $3.4 million
- Bloomberg: $2.6 million
- Yang: $1.9 million
- Buttigieg: $1.3 million
SOURCE: Advertising Analytics
Ahead of impeachment trial, Klobuchar campaign ramps up Iowa organizing events
DES MOINES, Iowa — With just 27 days to go until the caucuses here — and an impending impeachment trial that could keep the Democratic senators running for president in Washington for large chunks of time — the clock is ticking for campaign organizations in the Hawkeye State.
For her part, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., is ramping up her team of field organizers who will join her Iowa and Minnesota surrogate campaigners this coming weekend at events spanning across all of Iowa’s 99 counties.
The campaign recently surpassed 100 paid staffers on the ground in Iowa — with more field organizers to come — putting Klobuchar on par with the likes of former Vice President Joe Biden, former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., when it comes to their ground games.
Klobuchar, who will not participate in the organizing push, has been able to ramp up her staffing of the heels of well-received performances in the last two debates and a bump in donations. As recently as October, her Iowa staff consisted of 40 people.
The list of endorsers joining Saturday's organizing events could offer a preview of surrogates Iowans will see on the trail while Klobuchar is tied up with the impeachment trial.
Klobuchar’s husband, John Bessler will attend events on her behalf, along with former U.S. Attorney and Iowa Democratic Party Chair Roxanne Conlin, Minnesota State Auditor Julie Blaha, in addition to various state senators and representatives from both Iowa and Minnesota.
The day will consist of a variety of phone banks, house parties, and canvas launches. Klobuchar’s team is calling the statewide organizing event, “The Full Klobuchar Day of Action,” a play on the term, the “Full Grassley” — the 99 county tour that Republican Senator Chuck Grassley completes every year (which Klobuchar also completed in December).
Other campaigns have made similar intense organizing efforts, as in-person contact remains the most successful way to recruit supporters and precinct captains. Biden just campaigned with Rep. Abby Finkenauer to draw new support and Buttigieg’s caucus director is currently on a two week trip across the state to coach soon to be precinct captains. Meanwhile, Sanders’ campaign plans to knock half a million doors in the month of January and Elizabeth Warren routinely has held “weekends of action” to reach caucus-goers.
Former N.H. GOP senator endorses Joe Biden
CONCORD, N.H. — Former New Hampshire GOP Sen. Gordon Humphrey announced his endorsement for former Vice President Joe Biden on Monday as a part of a group of 100 New Hampshire independents who announced their support for Biden.
Humphrey spoke with NBC News about his decision to endorse, as well as how he believes the independent vote in New Hampshire is crucial to winning the state.
“I served in the U.S. Senate for 12 years with Joe Biden,” Humphrey told NBC News. “I know him well, I respect him. I trust him to restore calm and rationality to the White House in place of temper-tantrums and tweets.”
Speaking on his decision to endorse Biden over other candidates in the race, Humphrey pointed to his former colleague's experience and ability to work with people on either side of the political spectrum.
“There is no candidate in either party who can come close to Joe Biden's experience,” Humphrey said. "He knows the legislative process, he knows that it takes both Democrats and Republicans to pass legislation to implement policy, he knows that it's vital to build consensus, and you do that by showing respect towards your adversaries and bringing everyone together. Not this kind of baiting in which Trump engages fostering hate and distrust.”
Humphrey, who told NBC News he was a Republican all of his life “until the advent of Donald Trump,” fought against Trump during 2016 in the Republican primary process and even voted against him, endorsing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, which he says was a first for him.
“I just didn't want to have any part of a party that that is headed by Donald Trump,” Humphrey said. “So the day after the election, the next morning, I re-registered as an independent.”
When asked how he feels that Biden’s endorsement from independents in New Hampshire could help him appeal to more progressive voters, Humphrey said opposition to the president could unify voters.
“I think all of us who are opposed to Trump want to replace him,” Humphrey said. “And certainly we want to pick the strongest candidate, the candidate most likely to defeat Trump. That's not going to be easy. And far and away, in my opinion, far and away Joe Biden is the strongest candidate, and the polls I think reflect that across all the spectrum of ideologies.”
On what Biden needs to do between now and the New Hampshire primary to win the state, Humphrey says “spend as much time as he possibly can here, talk to as many people as he can.”
“Most of the Democratic candidates are appealing much too far to the left of center,” Humphrey added, “and I think Biden is hitting it just right.”
Deval Patrick and his wife discuss her cancer diagnosis in first television ad
MANCHESTER, N.H. — Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick is launching his first television ad buy of his presidential campaign, arguing that despite his recent entry into the Democratic primary, it's "not too late."
In the 30-second ad, shot in Boston and Patrick's hometown Chicago, he and his wife, Diane, reflect how his plan to jump into the presidential race "a year ago" was put on hold because of Diane's cancer diagnosis.
"We fought through it, and I'm well. But now we're fighting for the future of our democracy, and I encouraged Deval to get back in it," Diane Patrick says in the ad.
Deval Patrick follows his wife by arguing he's faced long odds before.
“Some people say it’s too late for me to run for president. But growing up on the South Side of Chicago, people told me then what I could and couldn’t do. I’ve been an underdog my whole life, and I’ve never let that stop me," he says.
The campaign says the six-figure television and digital buy will run across all four early nominating states, with “significant investments” in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
“No other candidate has the life or leadership experience that Deval does,” Campaign Manager Abe Rakov said in a statement. “We’re thrilled to have the opportunity to share far and wide why Governor Patrick is the candidate with the record and message to defeat Trump and renew the American Dream.”
Patrick, who got into the race just before the New Hampshire filing deadline in November, spoke with reporters on Friday in Exeter, N.H. about his campaign's fundraising but did not release any specifics. He has until the end of the month to file a disclosure with the Federal Election Commission that covers his fundraising from October through December.
“We are raising to be competitive,” Patrick said. “We are never going to compete with you know, Mayor Bloomberg, but we don't need to. I don't think this is about buying elections. It's about earning votes. And the best investment we can make is my time which is why I am spending the time I have here in New Hampshire.”
What we know so far about the presidential candidates' Q4 numbers
WASHINGTON — With the books closed on 2019, there's still a lot we don't know about the presidential candidates' financials.
That's because candidates have until the end of the month to file their official reports with the Federal Election Commission.
But most of the candidates have already released some top-line numbers, giving us the ability to sketch out how much money each campaign raised in 2019 (combining the estimated fourth-quarter numbers released by each campaign with how much it raised over the first three quarters of the year).
- President Trump: Quarters 1-3 $97.8 million + estimated quarter 4 $46 million = $143.8 million (with at least $66.3 million in transfers from affiliated committees)
- Vermont Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders: Q1-3 $74.4m + estimated Q4 $34.5m = $108.9m (at least $12.7 million in transfers)
- Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren: Q1-3 $60.3m + estimated Q4 $21.2m = $81.5m (at least $10.4 million in transfers)
- Former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg: Q1-3 $51.5m + estimated Q4 $24.7m = $76.2m
- Former Vice President Joe Biden: Q1-3 $37.8m + estimated Q4 $22.7m = $60.5m
- Businessman Andrew Yang: Q1-3 $14.5m + estimated Q4 16.5m = $31m
- Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar: Q1-3 $17.5m + estimated Q4 $11.4m = $28.9m (at least $3.6m in transfers)
- New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker: Q1-3 $18.5m + estimated Q4 $6.6m = $25.1m (at least $2.8m in transfers)