The latest political news and analysis from the campaign trail:
Democratic House candidates tout endorsements from U.S. Chamber of Commerce
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, a traditionally Republican-leaning lobbying group, has endorsed 23 House Democrats for re-election ahead of their competitive general election match-ups.
The Hill first reported the list of endorsements Tuesday, and a source familiar with the matter who is not authorized to speak about it publicly confirmed the endorsements to NBC News. The source added that the Chamber is backing 29 freshmen House Republicans as well.
While the business-oriented organization has not released its latest round of endorsements, several Democratic House candidates have publicly celebrated their support from the Chamber.
Moderate freshmen Reps. Joe Cunningham of South Carolina’s First Congressional District, Sharice Davids of Kansas’ Third Congressional District, and Kendra Horn of Oklahoma’s Fifth Congressional District touted their endorsements on Twitter.
Cunningham posted the email he received from the Chamber’s Chief Executive Officer Thomas J. Donohue informing him of the official endorsement. Other newly-backed members received similar messages from Donohue.
“The Chamber endorses pro-business leaders in Congress and vigorously supports policies that advance economic growth, help create jobs, and promote fiscal responsibility,” the letter reads, detailing House accomplishments such as the passage of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
“While just a snapshot of important House activity in 2019, your percentage on the Chamber's How They Voted scorecard was the driving factor in achieving this endorsement for 2020.”
The new endorsements represent a shift from previous cycles for the Chamber, which is known for aligning itself with GOP candidates. In 2018, the group reportedly endorsed just seven Democrats in federal elections. Politico previously reported that the endorsements this cycle have caused friction within the Chamber and among its donors.
Like Cunningham, Davids, and Horn, a dozen other freshmen Democratic members in Republican targets promoted their endorsements on Twitter, including: Reps. Colin Allred (TX-32), Lizzie Fletcher (TX-7), Haley Stevens (MI-11), Josh Harder (CA-10), Abby Finkenauer (IA-1), Cindy Axne (IA-3), Xochitl Torres Small (NM-2), Anthony Brindisi (NY-22), Susie Lee (NV-3), Angie Craig (MN-2), Andy Kim (NJ-3), and Abigail Spanberger (VA-7).
The list of endorsements also includes Reps. TJ Cox (CA-21), Antonio Delgado (NY-19), Elaine Luria (VA-2), Ben McAdams (UT-4), Dean Phillips (MN-3), Harley Rouda (CA-48), Greg Stanton (AZ-9), and David Trone (MD-6).
New Biden ad on Social Security solvency looks to woo voters in key battleground states
WASHINGTON — While issues of policing and safety in American cities have commanded most of the attention in the presidential campaign this week, former Vice President Joe Biden's campaign is trying to remind seniors about President Donald Trump’s record on other key issues that they believe could effectively win battleground voters.
As part of that effort, Biden's campaign released a new ad Thursday in battleground states attacking the president on Social Security solvency, the campaign's first nation-wide general election ad focused on the issue.
The ad, first obtained by NBC News, is targeting voters in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin with a warning about what could happen if Trump’s proposal for a permanent payroll tax cut came to fruition. The ad uses a recent letter written by the chief actuary of the Social Security Administration warning that such a policy would run Social Security dry by the middle of 2023.
As part of his executive actions aimed at shoring up the economy amid the coronavirus pandemic, Trump deferred payroll taxes through the end of the year and has promised to "forgive these taxes and make permanent cuts to the payroll tax." He and other administration officials have said those losses would be offset by both economic growth and pulling money from the general fund.
Biden has raised concerns about Social Security alongside the president's ongoing attempts to fully undo the Affordable Care Act without providing a replacement plan, arguing that Trump does not care about helping Americans amid an ongoing healthcare crisis.
“Put it plainly Trump's plan would wipe out Social Security period. You feel safer and more secure now?” Biden asked viewers during a Monday in Pittsburgh as part of a list of real-world consequences Americans would face if Trump wins re-election.
While the Biden campaign stressed a similar message throughout the primary election warning that re-electing Trump risked cuts to Social Security, they are ramping up their warning with the intention of targeting seniors who overwhelmingly rely on the government program in the final weeks of the general election.
A new national Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday found Biden winning those 65 and older by a margin of 50 percent to Trump's 46 percent, the latest poll showing Biden over-performing with seniors. In 2016, exit polls found Trump winning the 65-and-older vote by a margin of 52 percent to 45 percent.
The Quinnipiac poll found Trump still maintaining his edge among those 50 to 64 years of age, 53 percent to 44 percent respectively.
The campaign has already been stress their Social Security warning in Florida, a state where a win could put him on a faster track to clinching 270 electoral votes. One-fifth of the 2016 Florida electorate was 65 years old or older, exit polls found.
On Tuesday the campaign released their fourth ad directly targeting seniors in Florida, which continues to highlight testimonials from Floridians who worry about catching the virus and express frustration with the administration’s response.
“Our seniors that are being hit will be my responsibility if I’m your president,” Biden said in a digital ad that played across six battleground states last month. “I will not abandon you. It’s a simple proposition folks, we’re all in this together. We got to fight this together.”
Biden campaign raises roughly $365 million in largest monthly haul to date
WASHINGTON — Former Vice President Joe Biden's presidential campaign announced Wednesday that it had raised a record monthly haul of $365 million in August, a busy month that included the campaign adding California Sen. Kamala Harris to the ticket as well as the Democratic National Convention.
In a letter to supporters, Biden said that of the $364.5 million raised, $205 million came from online donations. The campaign also disclosed that 1.5 million Americans donated to the campaign for the first time in August.
Indications of a record monthly haul became evident after the campaign announced weeks ago it had raised $70 million during the virtual Democratic National Convention and $48 million in the two days after Biden announced Harris as his running mate.
Biden's fundraising effort has seen a major jolt since the start of 2020, when the campaign only raised $57 million in the first three months, and had a smaller presence on television during the key stretch of primaries. The campaign has raised more in August than it did in the entire second financial quarter of 2020, when it brought in $282.1 million.
The combination of Biden’s comeback to win the nomination and the onset of the pandemic, during which the Biden team stayed off the airwaves for weeks, allowed the campaign to stockpile funds through the spring and slowly cut into President Trump’s once-massive cash on hand advantage.
While the Trump campaign had outraised Biden regularly for months, the Biden campaign began to beat his rival's monthly totals when the former vice president became the apparent nominee in April. However, July proved to be a good month for the president’s re-election campaign — it raised $15 million more than the Democrats.
The Trump campaign declined to comment when asked about the expected monthly haul. It is unclear when the president's campaign will release its August fundraising numbers.
—Monica Alba contributed.
Virginia Republican Bob Good's campaign ad labelled 'racist dog whistle' by DCCC aide
WASHINGTON — Republican House candidate Bob Good debuted his first campaign ad Tuesday in Virginia’s Fifth Congressional District, which a top Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) aide was quick to label a “racist dog whistle.”
Good — a former Campbell County supervisor who previously worked for Liberty University — is running against Dr. Cameron Webb, a physician and public health expert. He would be the first Black doctor in Congress if elected.
“With chaos in our streets, Cameron Webb would make things worse. Webb would defund the police while crime spikes,” the TV spot’s narrator says over dissolving footage of destruction and protests into a photo of Webb.
“Look past the smooth presentation. Webb’s real agenda: Government-run health care, higher taxes on the middle class, police defunded, crime unchecked,” the speaker continues, calling Webb “way too liberal.”
The DCCC took issue with the ad shortly after it went live.
“Let’s say it plainly, this #VA05 ad is a racist dog whistle running because Bob Good knows he can’t explain why voters should trust him over Cameron Webb to keep them safe during COVID-19,” DCCC communications director Cole Leiter tweeted.
Asked to respond to the DCCC’s accusation, the Good campaign told NBC News, "We categorically deny there is anything that is racist or a ‘dog whistle’ in the ad and would ask what specifically are the Democrats claiming would make it so?"
Mia Ehrenberg, the communications director for the Webb campaign, said in a statement that the ad resorted to "distortions and fear-mongering" and that it "does not represent Dr. Webb's views on policy."
Webb has spoken favorably about a "Medicare for All" type solution for health care, but supports a public option.
The Democrat has not explicitly said that he wants to defund the police as the Good campaign’s new spot argues — he has talked about using federal funding to "drive the direction of law enforcement" and said that language about defunding the police is "coming from a deeply rooted sense that hey, all of this extra spending on police is actually part of the problem on policing and over-policing.”
Good's campaign ad is airing in the Roanoke-Lynchburg media market in southwest Virginia, according to Advertising Analytics. The district spans much of central Virginia and includes Charlottesville.
New Biden, DNC ad features Kenosha violence in 'Trump's America'
WASHINGTON — The Democratic National Committee and Democratic nominee Joe Biden's campaign released a new ad on Tuesday depicting "Trump's America" using footage of alleged Kenosha, Wis. shooter Kyle Rittenhouse and what appears to be the car crash in Charlottesville, Va. that killed Heather Heyer in 2017.
The ad has so far only run in the Washington D.C. market, according to Advertising Analytics. DNC spokesman David Bergstein said the party plans to run the ad in several battleground states, including Wisconsin.
The new spot begins with footage of fires and Trump supporters in pickup trucks shooting paintballs, people being tear gassed and clashes between police and protestors while the narration says, "This is Trump’s America: He won’t bring us together, he doesn’t want to and never will. He only divides."
The ad then shifts to what appears to be video of the man driving a car into protestors during the Charlottesville protests in 2017, a photo of a memorial of George Floyd and other footage before landing on video that appears to feature Rittenhouse pointing his gun at people and then later walking toward police with his hand's up.
“It’s Trump’s America, and it’s time to turn the page,” the ad’s narrator says before the requisite comment from Biden approving the message.
The ad's message comes as the Trump and Biden campaigns' responses to protests and violence have taken center stage. The spot's language echoes much of the language used by Republicans during their convention — Trump has argued that Americans wouldn't be safe in "Joe Biden's America", while Biden has sought to blame Trump for what he says his happening on the president's watch.
Espy launches new ad ahead of Mississippi Senate rematch with Hyde-Smith
Mike Espy says Mississippi can go back or go to the future.
Espy, the Democrats' long-shot Senate nominee, is hitting the airwaves across the state with a direct swipe at his GOP opponent, Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.
In his first TV ad, set to start airing Thursday and shared exclusively with NBC News, Espy appears in front his high school alma mater talking about how Mississippi has changed — and hasn't — in the decades since he was one of the first Black students to integrate the state's public school system.
"Cindy Hyde-Smith is hurting our ability to recruit new businesses and jobs," Espy says.
Espy refers directly to the senator's controversial remark in November 2018, when she was caught on camera embracing a supporter saying, "If he invited me to a public hanging, I'd be on the front row." (The senator apologized to anyone who was offended and said her words had been "twisted.")
The ad is part of six-figure buy following a string of strong fundraising months and buoyed by new internal polling showing a race within single digits. It's the first of at least three TV ads set to run across the state over the next few weeks.
"This is my story, and in a campaign like this, you have to get your story out," Espy said.
The 30-second spot is also a reintroduction of a rematch against Hyde-Smith, who defeated Espy in the 2018 special election to fill the seat vacated by Republican Sen. Thad Cochran. Despite losing by 66,000 votes, Espy won more than 46 percent of the statewide popular vote, making the race the best performance by a Democratic Senate candidate in Mississippi since 1982.
An internal Espy campaign poll from mid-August showed him 5 points behind Hyde-Smith. Other independent polls give Hyde-Smith more of an edge, and NBC News does not currently view the race as competitive. Nevertheless, the race is attracting big names in Democratic circles, including Stacey Abrams, who is campaigning with Espy this week.
Espy has agreed to debate Hyde-Smith before the election, but she has yet to agree to any debates, and none have been scheduled.
Messages to the Hyde-Smith campaign were not returned.
As Kanye West files suits to get on state ballots, more Republican ties to presidential campaign emerge
WASHINGTON — As Kanye West filed a series of lawsuits in recent days aimed at making the ballot as a presidential candidate in key states, he's also revealed more ties between the rap superstar and Republicans.
Like in Ohio, where West is suing to get on the ballot, the lawyer representing his campaign, Curt Hartman, is a former delegate to the 2016 Republican National Convention.
In West Virginia, where West's campaign is also suing in federal court to get on the ballot there, his lawyers include J. Mark Adkins, a member of the Republican National Lawyers Association who has represented the Republican National Committee in the past, as well as a lawyer who represented the West Virginia Republican Party during a 2018 lawsuit involving ballot access, Richard Heath Jr.
And in Wisconsin, where the rapper is filing a lawsuit after failing to make the ballot there, one of his lawyers, Erick G. Kaardal, previously served as the Secretary/Treasurer of the Republican Party of Minnesota.
The Wisconsin suit initially included a contact address for the Virginia-based law firm Holtzman, Vogel, Josefiak and Torchinsky, a firm that employs multiple lawyers who served as top counsel to the Republican National Committee, worked for Republican presidential campaigns and in Republican administrations, including current one.
Jill Holtzman Vogel, the firm's managing partner and a former chief counsel to the RNC, directed NBC to a statement from West's lawyers that said the address was listed in error. But she did not respond to an additional question as to whether her firm is doing any work for West.
The contact information in the Wisconsin suit has since been updated to match the Wyoming address West is using across his ballot applications.
While West is suing in these states in the hopes of getting onto the presidential ballot, he's made it onto the presidential ballot in a handful of states, including Colorado, Oklahoma, Iowa, Vermont, Arkansas and Idaho.
The links are just the latest between West and Republicans. GOP operatives and those involved in Republican politics have helped West in his attempts to gain ballot access in other states, including Wisconsin, Missouri and Colorado.
West is a registered Republican voter in Wyoming who has effusively praised President Trump and met with Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner during a recent trip to Colorado.
Gregg Keller, the Republican operative who is involved in West's efforts, recently addressed the campaign's litigation strategy in an interview with the Washington Free Beacon."Kanye is running to compete, to win, and ultimately, to change the nation and world for the better," Keller said. "We'll have aggressive efforts on all fronts: legal, political, grassroots, PR, and otherwise, to ensure Kanye can do so."
Massachusetts primaries to decide two heated contests Tuesday
WASHINGTON — Massachusetts holds its primaries Tuesday, including one of the biggest intraparty Senate contests still left on the calendar, as well as another challenge from the left against a sitting House Democratic committee chairman.
The Massachusetts Senate primary features incumbent Sen. Ed Markey — one of the longest-serving members of Congress (first joining the House in 1973) — and the scion of the Kennedy family in Joe Kennedy III.
From the start, Kennedy cast himself as part of the next generation of progressive voices despite his few policy differences with Markey. And early on in the campaign, Kennedy seemed to have the edge in polling.
But Markey closed the gap in recent months with a hard embrace of his progressive chops, debate performances, viral videos, and a boost from progressives like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and affiliated groups that are rallying around their ally and promoting his work on issues like the Green New Deal.
Now, all of the recent public polling shows Markey with the advantage.
Kennedy has had the TV/radio advertising edge over Markey, both in spending by the campaign and its allied super PAC. And he recently snagged the endorsement of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, which frustrated progressives who saw the move as the establishment coming after one of their own.
Also taking place Tuesday is a competitive Massachusetts House primary. Rep. Richard Neal, D-Mass. — Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee — is being challenged from the left by Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse.
In August, students at University of Massachusetts at Amherst accused Morse of inappropriate relationships with college students, but later came evidence that the charges might have been manufactured up by Neal supporters, though the Neal campaign has denied any involvement.
Neal has the endorsements of Pelosi, as well as his home state's Republican Gov. Charlie Baker.
Trump promised a health care plan in 'weeks,' but a month later, it hasn't come
WASHINGTON — Despite promising a health care overhaul by the end of the summer, August came and went without any such action from President Trump and his administration.
He has repeatedly floated legislation that could come together “in two weeks,” often using the timeframe as a placeholder for things that rarely, if ever, materialize.
The president told Chris Wallace in a Fox News Interview on July 19: “We’re signing a health care plan within two weeks, a full and complete health care plan that the Supreme Court decision on DACA gave me the right to do.”
A few weeks later, he amended that statement. “We’re going to be introducing a tremendous health care plan sometime, hopefully, prior to end of the month,” Trump said during a news conference at the White House in early August, adding: “It’s just about completed.”
That hasn’t happened.
The White House claims that could change soon but declined to offer any specifics.
“President Trump recently issued several executive orders to lower the cost of prescription drugs, including making insulin and EpiPens available at low cost to low-income Americans. There will be more action to come in the coming weeks,” according to spokeswoman Sarah Matthews.
Last month, Trump also told reporters during a press briefing that there would be an executive order in the next few weeks “requiring health insurance companies to cover all preexisting conditions for all customers.”
Asked why this unilateral action was necessary when the Affordable Care Act already protects people with preexisting conditions, Trump told reporters it would be “just a double safety net” and “a second platform.”
The Trump administration is suing to overturn the entire ACA, which would include these protections. The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments a week after Election Day.
Last cycle, then-candidate Trump ran on a platform to overturn the Affordable Care Act, consistently vowing to abolish it. An effort to do so in 2017 ultimately failed.
The coronavirus pandemic has only heightened the debate over health care, making it a critical voting issue in November, as it was during the 2018 midterms, when more than 40 percent of voters said it was the most important matter facing the country, according to exit polls.
In the same interview with Fox News in late July, the president suggested he would also unveil an order related to immigration in the coming weeks. No such plan has been produced.
Trump campaign announces TV ad buys in five key states
WASHINGTON — The Trump campaign is going on the air this week with TV ad buys in five key states: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia and Minnesota, senior adviser Jason Miller told reporters on Monday, returning to the airwaves in battleground states it pulled out of during the GOP convention.
All but Minnesota are seen as essential to Trump's path to re-election as he trails Democrat Joe Biden nationally and in most battleground state polls.
Miller said the new buy is focused on states where voting starts earliest. He said the campaign plans to spend $200 million on air between Labor Day and the election — the Biden campaign has announced it plans to spend $220 million in TV ads over that same time period.
The campaign stopped running television spots in battleground states during the GOP convention, only running national cable ads and spots in Washington D.C. Meanwhile, former Vice President Joe Biden's campaign outspent the Trump campaign from the start of the Democratic convention through the Republican convention by $24 million on the airwaves.
Two notable absences from the campaign's newest announcement are Pennsylvania and Michigan — The Trump campaign hasn't run television ads in Michigan since late July and Pennsylvania since early August.
The president's campaign manager, Bill Stepien, added on the call with reporters that Trump has a path to victory even without them. "We will defend the 2016 map," Stepien said. "If he holds all other states that he won in 2016, the president need only win one of the three: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania."
A look back at Trump's 2016 RNC nomination speech
WASHINGTON ― President Trump is set to accept the Republican Party presidential nomination Thursday night with a speech at the White House. In his first acceptance speech in 2016, then-candidate Trump laid out a litany of complaints about President Barack Obama's administration and set some benchmarks for his own plans. Here’s the state of play on just some of those campaign promises:
Law and order
Four years ago, Trump argued that the Obama administration had rolled back criminal enforcement, pointing to increases in violent crime in cities across the country.
“Homicides last year increased by 17 percent in America’s 50 largest cities,” he said. “That’s the largest increase in 25 years.”
That 17 percent rise in the homicide rate from 2014 to 2015 appears to be from an analysis by The Washington Post and does represent the largest increase since 1990 ― though the homicide rate did not increase in every single one of those 50 cities.
While President Trump has recently discussed crime rising in Democratic-run cities, like New York and Chicago, the New York City and Chicago police departments report that violent crime is slightly down this year compared to 2019. And in general, violent crime in New York and Chicago have decreased over the last 20 years.
In 2016, Trump said that nearly 40 percent of African American children and 58 percent of Latinos were living in poverty. A Washington Post fact-check found those numbers misleading. In 2018 the poverty level of Black children had fallen to about 30 percent.
Trump also pledged to lower the national trade deficit but it has actually grown over the last three years. And he talked about reducing the national debt, which rose to $19 trillion under Obama but has now ballooned to over $26 trillion under Trump.
He also highlighted his intention to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with individual trade agreements. However, one of the signature accomplishments of Trump’s first term was the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which keeps several of NAFTA’s principles in-tact ― a multi-country agreement.
One of Trump's first legislative wins as president was his 2017 tax cut bill. The $1.5 trillion tax cut reduced the corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 35 percent and lowered individual tax rates while doubling the standard deduction.
In 2016, Trump said there were three things needed to curb international terrorism: “have the best gathering of intelligence,” “abandon the failed policy of nation-building” in Iraq, Libya, Egypt and Syria, and work with allies to destroy ISIS.
“We are going to win, we’re going to win fast,” Trump said.
There are differing ideas on what ending “nation-building” means. But through the lens of where troops are, there are currently about 5,200 American troops in Iraq. In Dec. 2016, there were 6,812 troops in Iraq. According to The New York Times, ISIS has been re-establishing itself in areas where it began 17 years ago, and attacks have started to surge.
When President Trump pulled troops out of Syria, there were several criticisms that Americans were leaving allied Kurdish forces unprotected and unable to hold territory back from ISIS. Kurds helped to guard 30 detention facilities that hold nearly 10,000 ISIS detainees across northern Syria.
Today, there are about 500 troops still in Syria, despite the president’s calls for a withdrawal of all 1,000 troops.
President Trump, however, would point to actions such as the killing of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi during a U.S. raid as proof that ISIS has been stymied.
Trump promised in 2016 to “repeal and replace Obamacare.” And in the first two years of his administration, when he had unified control over Congress, there were attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act but they failed.
The one aspect of the law that was repealed was the individual mandate, which zeroed out the tax penalty on Americans who didn’t buy health insurance. But the president and Republicans in Congress have yet to put forward a new health care plan to replace the ACA. The Trump administration is also currently involved in a Texas lawsuit where they are arguing that the ACA is unconstitutional on the whole and should be overturned.
President Trump has teased a new health care plan throughout the summer, saying about a month ago, “We’re signing a health care plan within two weeks.” None of the president’s multiple past pledges have materialized and there are no signs that this next one will either.
Trump made immigration a pillar of both his 2016 and 2020 campaigns, underlining the numbers of illegal immigrants entering the U.S. as a rationale for building a wall at the southern border.
“The number of new illegal immigrant families who have crossed the border so far this year already exceeds the entire total from 2015,” Trump said at his first convention.
“We are going to build a great border wall to stop illegal immigration, to stop the gangs and the violence, and to stop the drugs from pouring into our communities,” he added.
While total apprehensions were higher in fiscal year 2016 than in 2015, those 2016 numbers were lower than those of both 2013 and 2014. And according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the 2016 totals represented “a fraction of the number of apprehensions routinely observed from the 1980s through 2008.”
After President Trump took office, the total number of apprehensions initially decreased to then hit its highest level since 2007 in 2019, which prompted the president to make an emergency declaration to acquire funding for his promised border wall.
Almost all border wall construction during Trump’s tenure has encompassed replacing barriers put in place by previous administrations ― not building up additional wall. As of last month, barriers cover approximately one-third of the border, a number that’s gone barely unchanged under Trump.