WASHINGTON — We’ve talked about seniors, the suburbs, Latinos, Blacks and younger voters in this general election.
But maybe the most important demographic to watch on Election Night will be the voters who were most essential to President Trump’s victory four years ago — white voters.
The reason: Almost all the polling we’ve seen shows Trump underperforming — and Biden overperforming — with that demographic.
And someone who won the White House by a combined 80,000 votes in three states, plus who lost the popular vote, can’t afford a defection from any group in 2016, especially his most important demographic.
Here’s how white voters broke in the most recent elections (per the exit polls), compared with where the current NBC polling stands.
National
- 2008: McCain 55 percent, Obama 43 percent (R+12)
- 2012: Romney 59 percent, Obama 39 percent (R+20)
- 2016: Trump 57 percent, Clinton 37 percent (R+20)
- 2020: Trump 50 percent, Biden 46 percent (R+4), per mid-October NBC/WSJ poll
Florida
- 2008: McCain 56 percent, Obama 42 percent (R+14)
- 2012: Romney 61 percent, Obama 37 percent (R+24)
- 2016: Trump 64 percent, Clinton 32 percent (R+32)
- 2020: Trump 56 percent, Biden 41 percent (R+15), per September’s NBC/Marist poll
Michigan
- 2008: Obama 51 percent, McCain 47 percent (D+4)
- 2012: Romney 55 percent, Obama 44 percent (R+11)
- 2016: Trump 57 percent, Clinton 36 percent (R+21)
- 2020: Biden 49 percent, Trump 47 percent (D+2), per September’s NBC/Marist poll
North Carolina
- 2008: McCain 64 percent, Obama 35 percent (R+29)
- 2012: Romney 68 percent, Obama 31 percent (R+37)
- 2016: Trump 63 percent, Clinton 32 percent (R+31)
- 2020: Trump 54 percent, Biden 42 percent (R+12), per July’s NBC/Marist poll of reg voters
Pennsylvania
- 2008: McCain 51 percent, Obama 48 percent (R+3)
- 2012: Romney 57 percent, Obama 42 percent (R+15)
- 2016: Trump 56 percent, Clinton 40 percent (R+16)
- 2020: Trump 49 percent, Biden 49 percent (tie), per September’s NBC/Marist poll
Wisconsin
- 2008: Obama 54 percent, McCain 45 percent (D+9)
- 2012: Romney 51 percent, Obama 48 percent (R+3)
- 2016: Trump 53 percent, Clinton 42 percent (R+11)
- 2020: Biden 52 percent, Trump 45 percent (D+7), per September’s NBC/Marist poll
Bottom line: If the current polling holds, you’re likely going to see an overall result between what happened in 2008 and 2012.
If the polling doesn’t hold, that’s how Trump could still win.
Biden entered final month with a 3-to-1 cash-on-hand edge
Speaking of 2008, the last time we saw this kind of disparity in the cash-on-hand numbers at this stage of a presidential contest was Obama versus McCain.
“President Trump’s re-election campaign committee ended September with only $63.1 million in the bank despite canceling some television buys late last month, leaving him badly outmatched financially against Joseph R. Biden Jr., who reported $177.3 million in cash on hand for the final stretch of the campaign,” the New York Times first reported.
That’s a nearly 3-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage for Biden heading into the final month of the presidential race.
Tweet of the day
Data Download: The numbers you need to know today
8,320,630: The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the United States, per the most recent data from NBC News and health officials. (That’s 60,695 more than yesterday morning.)
222,221: The number of deaths in the United States from the virus so far. (That’s 903 more than yesterday morning.)
126.94 million: The number of coronavirus tests that have been administered in the United States so far, according to researchers at The COVID Tracking Project.
Nearly 300,000: The increase in the number of people who have died so far this year compared to a typical year.
545: The number of migrant children whose parents have still not been located by lawyers attempting to reunite them after their separation due to the Trump administration’s “zero tolerance” policy, according to a new report.
30,742,171: The number of Americans who have voted early, either by mail or in person, according to NBC and TargetSmart
On the campaign trail today
Barack Obama campaigns for Joe Biden in Philadelphia. Donald Trump holds a rally in Gastonia, N.C. Kamala Harris also is in the Tar Heel State. And Mike Pence hits New Hampshire and Ohio.
Ad Watch from Ben Kamisar
If you’re Joe Biden, what do you do when you come into October with all of that money he has?
Well, one thing you can do is book a 60-second spot during the World Series narrated by award-winning actor Sam Elliott.
Over a slow arrangement of the “Star-Spangled Banner,” the ad has some “Morning in America” vibes, with Elliott talking about unity as picturesque scenes of Americana play interspliced with video of Biden on the campaign trail.
“There is so much we can do if we choose to take on problems and not each other, and choose a president who brings out our best,” Elliot says.
“Joe Biden doesn’t need everyone in this country to always agree — just to agree we all love this country, and go from there.”
Keystone State is key
President Trump borrowed a line from Joe Biden last night as he set his eyes on Pennsylvania being his way to victory.
Here’s what Trump said in Erie, Pa.: “Pennsylvania, you got to get out. You know, if we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing.”
Last week, Biden made a similar pitch in Florida: “Here in Florida, you can determine the outcome of this election. We win Florida and it's all over.”
But less than two weeks out from Election Day, it’s important to remember that we’ll probably know more results out of Florida on Nov. 3 than we will in Pennsylvania. Florida will begin processing mail-in ballots before Election Day, while Pennsylvania cannot process them until Nov. 3. That’s why this year we have more of an election season than just a day.
The Lid: That’s no moon
Don’t miss the pod from yesterday, when we delved into the Trump campaign’s money woes.
ICYMI: What else is happening in the world
Many Latino voters have Obamacare on the brain as they head to the polls.
Mitch McConnell said in a closed-door meeting that he is “encouraging” the White House to wait on a coronavirus relief bill until after the election.
Trump abruptly ended a taped “60 Minutes” interview with Lesley Stahl.
Biden is bracing to get questions about his son Hunter at Thursday night’s debate.
Tiffany Trump says her father “has always supported” LGBTQ people.
Some Tennessee voters were challenged at the polls for wearing Black Lives Matter and “I can’t breathe” gear.
