30-Year Forecast Sees High Chance of Strong California Quake

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/ Source: Associated Press

LOS ANGELES — California faces a greater than 99 percent chance of being rocked by a strong earthquake in the next 30 years, according to the latest report from the U.S. Geological Survey.

Tuesday's report — known as the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or UCERF3 — found that the odds of a magnitude-6.7 quake similar in size to the 1994 Northridge disaster was higher in Northern California than Southern California — 95 percent versus 93 percent.

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The seismic risks are similar to a 2008 report by the USGS. Back then, seismologists also determined that California faces an almost certain risk of a strong quake. However, the estimated likelihood of having a quake measuring magnitude 8 or greater in the next 30 years was raised from 4.7 percent to about 7 percent.

Of all the faults that crisscross California, the southern San Andreas Fault remains the most dangerous because it hasn't ruptured in a long time, the report said.



— The Associated Press