By Hannah Hartig, John Lapinski and Stephanie Psyllos
Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton among military households by 10 points, 51 percent to 41 percent, according to results from the latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll.
There has been a lot of speculation about how much support Trump is getting among veterans and those affiliated with the military. Trump himself has spent a considerable amount of effort to secure this important voting bloc. But the candidate generated considerable controversy with his feud with a “Gold Star” family that appeared at the Democratic National Convention. Khizr Khan, whose military son was killed in Iraq, criticized Trump’s call for a temporary ban on Muslim immigration to the U.S. Trump later accused Khan of making false statements about him.
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Typically, Republicans do well among military households, and past presidential elections have shown the Republican candidate winning veterans by double digits. Mitt Romney won the veterans vote by 20 points in 2012, according to a American National Election Studies post-election survey. John McCain carried vets by 10 points in 2008, and George W. Bush won veterans by 16 points in 2004 according to network exit polls.
To gauge military households, we asked respondents if they or anyone in their household is currently serving in the military or is a military veteran. Those who said they personally served or live in households with someone who served were included in the analysis. Taking a deeper look at the demographics of military households allows us to better determine who Trump’s supporters among that group are.
The gender gap that exists among all voters still persists in military households, however, the margin is smaller among military households. Women from military households go for Clinton over Trump, 49 percent to 43 percent. The 6-point margin in Clinton’s favor is narrowed from a 23-point margin among all women voters. Among men from military households, Trump is ahead of Clinton, 58 percent to 34 percent. This 24-point advantage for Trump is much larger than his 6-point advantage among all men voters.
In addition to women, non-whites are a key constituency for Clinton, and she has their support among military households too. Black voters from military households support Clinton over Trump, 80 percent to 16 percent. While Clinton is still far ahead of Trump, her 64-point margin among this group is slightly narrowed from her 76-point advantage among all registered black voters. Hispanic voters from military households also support Clinton over Trump, 52 percent to 37 percent. The 15-point margin is a lot smaller than the 49-point margin Clinton enjoys over Trump among all registered Hispanic voters.
While Trump does better than Clinton among military households overall, some of the divisions that exist among all voters are clearly reflected among military households as well.
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll was conducted online August 1 through August 7, 2016 among a national sample of 11,480 adults who say they are registered to vote, including 3,123 respondents who say they are members of military households. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Results have an error estimate of plus or minus 1.2 percentage points and plus or minus 2.6 percentage points among military households. For full results and methodology, click here.
John Lapinski is the Director of the Elections Unit at NBC News