With gas and grocery prices as high as they currently are, inflation skyrocketing and interest rates hovering above average, I’m sure tariffs are the last thing you want to hear about… again. But it’s been about a year since President Donald Trump imposed increased duties on almost all U.S. trading partners and across certain industries, and policies have changed a lot. One thing that hasn’t changed? Tariffs impacting your wallet. Below, I talked to economists and supply chain experts about everything you need to know right now, other factors contributing to price hikes and how you can save money when everything feels more expensive.
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What are tariffs?
As a reminder, tariffs are a tax on imported goods, so the importer of record, meaning whoever first takes possession of those goods on U.S. soil, pays it. Shoppers, who are the end consumer, don’t directly pay tariffs (unless they’re importing something themselves), but they are impacted by tariff-related price increases companies implement, says Joe Adamski, a supply chain expert and senior advisory director at ProcureAbility.
What tariffs are currently in place?
Tariff policies have changed over 50 times since April 2, 2025, which is when the President, who called it “Liberation Day,” rolled out higher rates across U.S. trading partners and specific industries, according to the Tax Foundation (it frequently updates this detailed timeline). This year, the biggest reason for policy changes is a Supreme Court ruling that declared some of the President’s tariffs illegal, causing him to impose new ones.
The tariffs that are currently in place are:
- A 10 percent flat rate across U.S. trading partners. There are certain exceptions, like for some minerals, energy products, agricultural goods, pharmaceuticals and electronics. These tariffs are currently set to expire in mid-July.
- Additional product-specific tariffs for metals like steel and copper, automobiles and wood products, for example. Due to the type of tariff these are, they don’t have an expiration date.
Are tariffs still higher than usual?
Yes, tariffs are still historically high, says Adamsky. “The average tariff rate is currently 10 to 13 percent, depending on what category of goods you’re looking at, which is the highest they’ve been since the 1940s,” he says. “Even after certain tariffs expire in mid-July, so long as Congress does not extend them, the average rate would drop to 6 to 9 percent, but that’s still high.” The Tax Foundation estimates that these high tariffs resulted in an average tax increase of $1,000 per U.S. household in 2025, and will result in an average tax increase of $700 per U.S. household in 2026.
What products have been most affected by tariffs?
According to the most recent data from The Budget Lab at Yale University, the products that have been most affected by tariffs include:
- Motor vehicles and parts
- Recreational vehicles like RVs and boats
- Clothing and footwear
- Furniture, rugs and other home goods
- Household appliances
- Kitchenware like pots and pans, dinnerware and drinkware
- Indoor and outdoor home improvement supplies and gardening tools
- Sporting and camping equipment
- Electronics
- Groceries
What products haven’t been affected by tariffs?
Very few products haven’t been affected by tariffs, experts say. Even items made in the U.S. aren’t completely immune — many companies are facing increased production costs because they import materials like fabric, batteries and microchips from foreign countries before manufacturing their goods domestically. Digital products, like eBooks, software and online education courses, as well as services and experiences, have been spared the most.
Are companies still raising prices due to tariffs?
After Liberation Day, numerous companies, like Nike, Nintendo, SharkNinja and Uppababy, raised prices on products throughout 2025 so they could pay increased duties while continuing to make a profit. “Initially, firms try to absorb costs by reducing their profitability a bit, and changing their suppliers or inventory management,” says Anne Villamil, a professor of economics at the University of Iowa’s Tippie College of Business. “But eventually, they lose their ability to do that, so they pass those costs on to consumers, which is what economists call pass-through.”
In 2026, companies are still raising prices, but not entirely due to tariffs, says Andy Tsay, a professor of information systems and analytics at Santa Clara University’s Leavey School of Business. The Iran War and resulting blockages in the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman that’s critical to oil transportation, is causing significant global supply chain disruptions — tankers filled with oil are trapped in the strait, and since they can’t get through, supply is restricted. That’s causing the cost of a barrel of oil, and thus jet fuel, diesel and gas, to skyrocket. Companies across industries need oil to make essential materials like plastic, and fuel-reliant planes and trucks for transportation, so their overhead costs are increasing right now. We’ll eventually see companies pass related costs on to consumers, just like we did with tariffs, says Villamil.
Additionally, companies will likely be forced to further reevaluate their pricing this summer as the 10 percent tariff’s mid-July expiration date approaches and new or extended policies are imposed, and investigations into other tariffs the President imposed get completed. So don’t be surprised if you see increases throughout the next few months — I’ll keep you updated about any I learn about.
Who is eligible for tariff refunds?
When the Supreme Court declared some of the President’s tariffs illegal, it opened the floodgates for importers and shippers, who paid the now invalid duties, to file for refunds, which are currently being paid out. Companies like Costco, Walmart, Home Depot, Target, FedEx, UPS and DHL, for example, are among those that asked for money back. So what about consumers?
“As consumers who already paid those companies, it’s a dead issue,” says Adamsky. That’s because there’s no way for consumers to calculate exactly how much extra they paid each company they bought from between the time higher tariffs took effect and the Supreme Court ruling. Companies that directly imported the goods and paid the tariff, however, can.
Are companies going to lower prices after getting tariff refunds?
Most companies are unlikely to lower prices if they get tariff refunds, especially given the higher expenses they’re currently incurring due to the ongoing Iran War, says Villamil. A lot of them also already made permanent supply chain changes, which in turn impacts pricing, in hopes of making themselves more resistant to volatile tariff policy. “Previously, companies would go to the lowest cost producer, which most often ends up being China,” says Henry Jin, a professor of supply chain management at Miami University’s Farmer School of Business. “But because of this unreliability around tariffs, companies feel unsure, and when you’re unsure, you diversify and try to split up rather than putting all our eggs in one basket, or sourcing all your supplies from one country. Unfortunately, when they move out of China, they also lose a lot of the low costs associated with scale, skill and speed, which means higher prices for consumers.”
While you shouldn’t expect to see lower prices at stores, some companies might pay shoppers back, so to speak, in other ways, like hosting extra sales, offering free shipping for a limited time or discounting the price of an exclusive membership. That’s more along the lines of what to look out for.
Tips for shoppers: How to cut costs right now
Buy store brands instead of private-label brands
Products from store brands tend to cost less than those from private-label brands, so try to add the less expensive option to your cart while shopping if there’s a similar substitute, says Villamil. Some of the easiest places to find near-exact store-brand substitutes include pharmacies, grocery stores and big box retailers like Amazon, Target and Walmart.
Delay buying anything you don’t need immediately until it goes on sale
Now is the time to be particularly mindful about your wants and needs. There’s lots of sales coming up in the next few months, like Amazon Prime Day, and discounts around Fourth of July, Labor Day and back-to-school, so if you can wait for a deal, you should.
Pay with credit cards that let you earn cash back, and/or shop through cash back extensions online
Any money you can put back in your pocket is a win, experts say. Many cash back extensions also find extra promo codes for you, which you can stack on top of deals or use to get discounts on full-price items.
Pick-up purchases in-store
Shipping and delivery fees, as well as free shipping thresholds, may increase due to high fuel prices, so pick up purchases, including meals, as much as possible, says Jin.
Join wholesale clubs
Costco, BJs and Sam’s Club, for example, tend to have more stable pricing than other retailers. “You pay your fixed membership cost every year, and then you get reasonable, everyday low pricing on most of what they sell,” says Tsay. These wholesale clubs also let you stock up on goods in bulk, which tends to cost less than constantly making smaller purchases, but be sure to do so carefully. “You need to match your bulk purchase decisions with consumption, especially when it comes to perishables that can expire,” says Jin, who noted that food waste is essentially throwing money away.
Did the de minimis exemption end?
Yes, the de minimis exemption ended in August 2025. It previously allowed international shipments of goods less than $800 to enter the U.S. tax-free, which sped up the customs process (it’s typically the most delayed by agents checking if tariffs are collected on the package) and allowed for growth in cross-border e-commerce, says Jin. “Low-value packages used to be able to clear customs very quickly, and get to you quickly,” he says. “But now that the rule has come to an end, someone has to pay the import tax. Many retailers are requiring shoppers to pay for it in advance so the package gets through customs a little faster.”
If the retailer doesn’t require you to pay an import tax at checkout, you’ll likely get a tariff bill from the carrier shipping it, like DHL, UPS or Fedex, before your package gets delivered. The carrier won’t deliver your package until you pay the tariff fee, so make sure you do it promptly — if you don’t, there’s a high likelihood that whatever you ordered will get lost in customs and never make it to you, says Jin.
With all of this in mind, is it even worth buying from international retailers at this point? “You’ll need to tolerate a little bit more shipment and logistical uncertainty, and your purchase should not be time sensitive,” says Jin. He recommends triple-checking where products are being shipped from before you click buy — sometimes retailers disclose this information on product pages, while others show it at checkout.
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Meet our experts
At NBC Select, we work with experts who have specialized knowledge and authority based on relevant training and/or experience. We also ensure that all expert advice and recommendations are made independently and with no undisclosed financial conflicts of interest.
- Henry Jin is a professor of supply chain management at Miami University’s Farmer School of Business.
- Joe Adamski is a supply chain expert and senior advisory director at ProcureAbility.
- Anne Villamil is a professor of economics at the University of Iowa’s Tippie College of Business.
- Andy Tsay is a professor of information systems and analytics at Santa Clara University’s Leavey School of Business.
Why trust NBC Select?
I’m a reporter at NBC Select who has covered consumer trends and savings for over six years. I’ve been reporting about tariffs since they were imposed in early 2025 and tracking what brands are raising prices. To write this article, I talked to economists and supply chain experts about the state of tariffs in 2026 and how shoppers can save money.
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