President Bush holds significant advantages over John F. Kerry in public perceptions of who is better equipped to deal with Iraq and the war on terrorism, and he has reduced the advantages his Democratic challenger held last month on many domestic issues, according to a Washington Post-ABC News Poll.
The poll also found that Iraq and the war on terrorism have surged in importance, and rank with the economy and jobs as top voting issues. Despite signs of concern among Americans about the violence in Iraq, the poll showed Bush's approval ratings holding steady and Kerry's slipping on a variety of issues and attributes.
By 49 percent to 44 percent, Bush is viewed as better able to deal with the country's biggest problems. Five weeks ago, those numbers were reversed. By comfortable margins, voters see Bush as stronger than Kerry on key national security issues.
On the economy, Bush has erased Kerry's 12-point edge and is tied with the senator from Massachusetts on who can better deal with the country's economic problems.
In a matchup, Bush holds a lead of 48 percent to 43 percent over Kerry among registered voters, with independent Ralph Nader at 6 percent. In early March, shortly after he effectively wrapped up the Democratic nomination, Kerry led Bush by 48 percent to 44 percent.
Bush's improved political standing has come during a difficult period for the president. Nearly 100 U.S. soldiers have been killed in Iraq this month, more than in any month since major combat ended last year, and Bush faces growing criticism that he does not have a plan to stabilize the country.
'A close horse race'
At the same time, the independent commission investigating the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, has heard testimony from former Bush White House counterterrorism head Richard A. Clarke that Bush ignored the threat of terrorism during the first eight months of his presidency.
During the past five weeks, however, Bush's reelection campaign has spent about $50 million on television ads, many of them critical of Kerry. At the same time, Kerry has been less visible than he was during the heat of the Democratic primaries and has struggled to get out his message over the volume of news about Iraq and terrorism.
Tad Devine, a top Kerry adviser, said he questions the Post-ABC News poll's findings.
"That's not the way we see the race at all," he said. "We see a close horse race where, if anything, Kerry may have a small advantage or tied. We see the Iraq issue as one that is hurting the president right now, not helping."
Matthew Dowd, senior strategist for Bush's campaign, disagreed. Dowd said the findings underscore the depth of Bush's support, despite bad news from Iraq and Kerry's inability to convince voters that he has an acceptable alternative to Bush's policies.
Asked how much Bush's advertising has affected the race, he said: "Some. Probably less than some consultants say it does but more than the Kerry people say." Dowd said external events have had a greater impact on the race.
Nearly half of Americans rank the situation in Iraq or the war on terrorism as their biggest concerns this election year. About one in four singled out Iraq as their most important voting issue, more than double the proportion who expressed a similar view five weeks ago. Almost as many said the war on terrorism is the issue that will determine their vote, also up from last month.
At the same time, the proportion who said the economy and jobs are most important dropped by 10 percentage points, to 26 percent, in the wake of data that suggest the economy is growing and beginning to create large numbers of jobs.
Despite increased uncertainty in Iraq and fierce attacks by critics over the way his administration handled the terrorist threat before Sept. 11, 2001, the survey found Bush's job approval rating has remained unchanged at 51 percent. That is lower than Presidents Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan at this point in their reelection campaign years but higher than the ratings for presidents George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter, who went on to lose their reelection bids.
Few Americans ready to abandon Iraq
On specific areas of performance, President Bush's standing with Americans was largely unchanged or up slightly from last month. A slight majority — 54 percent — disapprove of the way Bush is handling the economy, down from 59 percent in March. About the same proportion disapprove of the way he is handling Iraq, unchanged in the past five weeks. Slightly more than six in 10 continue to approve of the way he is handling the war on terrorism.
While public perceptions of Bush's performance on Iraq have not changed in recent weeks, the survey suggests that Americans remain deeply ambivalent about the war, and the bloody and uncertain peace that has followed.
Barely half say going to war with Iraq was the right thing to do, while nearly as many — 46 percent — said it was a mistake. In the past year, the proportion who view the war as a mistake has tripled. Six in 10 say the United States and its coalition allies are "bogged down" in Iraq.
Just over half believe the administration does not have a clear plan to deal with the growing unrest, unchanged from March. Two in three say the number of casualties in Iraq is unacceptable, the highest reading since the war began 13 months ago.
Half say the Middle East is less stable as a consequence of the war, while a third disagree. When asked if the war has left the United States stronger or weaker in the world, slightly more say the United States has lost ground (35 percent) than say its international standing has strengthened (29 percent). The remainder said the war has made no difference.
But few Americans are ready to abandon Iraq. Two in three said the U.S. should stay in Iraq until order is restored, even if it means continued casualties. Only a third favored an immediate withdrawal, unchanged since late last year, while 54 percent said they would support calls from U.S. military leaders to increase the number of troops to deal with unrest in Iraq.
More than six in 10 said the United States should proceed with plans to turn over power to an interim Iraqi government on June 30, while fewer than one-third said the coalition should delay. But nearly six in 10 said the transfer will be symbolic, at best.
Meanwhile, concerns about the economy have eased slightly in the face of recent positive economic news. More than four in 10 rate the economy as "excellent" or "good," a four-point increase since early March. Still, a majority of Americans — 57 percent — said the country was on the "wrong track"; just over four in 10 believe it is headed in the "right direction."
The survey suggests that Bush has not been significantly harmed by the Sept. 11 hearings. A majority of Americans believe he did not do enough to follow up on intelligence signaling the possibility of a terrorist attack before Sept. 11. But 62 percent agreed with the Bush administration that those reports were "too vague" to act on.
The survey found that the public's perceptions of Kerry as a person and as a candidate have dipped significantly in the past five weeks. Fifty-five percent view Bush as honest and trustworthy, similar to his rating in March, but the proportion who view Kerry as honest has dropped 10 percentage points, to 49 percent. Nearly two-thirds see Bush as a strong leader but barely half — 52 percent — have that impression of Kerry, down 9 points since March.
Nearly eight in 10 say Bush "takes a position and sticks with it." Four in 10 have that view of Kerry, who is being portrayed by Republicans as a flip-flopper on key issues such as the war in Iraq. The Democratic candidate still holds an edge on who better understands the problems of average people, but even there Kerry's advantage over Bush has dropped from 17 to 10 points.
A total of 1,201 randomly selected adults were interviewed April 15-18 for this telephone survey. Margin of sampling error for the overall results is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Assistant polling director Claudia Deane contributed to this report.