updated 10/21/2013 10:50:34 AM ET 2013-10-21T14:50:34

ALL IN with CHRIS HAYES
October 18, 2013
Guest: Kavita Patel, Donald Berwick, Dorian Warren , Amy Davidson, Josh
Barro

CHRIS HAYES, MSNBC HOST: Good evening from New York. I`m Chris Hayes.

It is day two of the government working an open and day 18 of
Obamacare open and kind of not working. It`s the biggest social program in
over 40 years and the fortunes of the Democratic Party and the live of tens
of millions of our fellow Americans rides on its success. And it`s been in
the crosshairs since before it even begins.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SEN. TED CRUZ (R), TEXAS: I will do everything necessary and
anything possible to defund Obamacare.

HAYES (voice-over): Well, it turns out the Republicans managed to
bring everything to a halt but Obamacare, which launched right as
Republicans were shutting down the government. Not the death panels or
socialist takeover, but the real thing. And it was rough.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The health care law has a major case of the
hiccups.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It wasn`t the triumphant rollout the White House
had envisioned.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It`s more like a sputter.

HAYES: Now, for some context. The rollout of Obamacare is a huge,
complicated, unprecedented undertaking and is being actively sabotaged by
Republican governors across the country.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Why a no go on Obamacare in Alabama?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I believe we need accessible and affordable
health care, but certainly not what has been proposed by the federal
government.

GOV. RICK SCOTT (R), FLORIDA: This is going to be devastating for
patients, devastating for taxpayers. It`s going to be the biggest job
killer ever. We`re not going to implement Obamacare in Florida.

GOV. NIKKI HALEY (R), SOUTH CAROLINA: What it`s continuing to do is
to take people off of private insurance and they will now be on government
insurance.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We don`t need D.C. telling us what doctors we can
see, what health care plans we can enroll in, how we can get our health
care.

GOV. RICK PERRY (R), TEXAS: Well, we`ve said all along we weren`t
interested in putting more people on the Titanic and that`s what you would
be doing with the expansion of Medicaid.

HAYES: There are two ways that Obamacare expands coverage. One is
through expanding eligibility for Medicaid and right now, 26 states all
with Republican governors are refusing federal money for the Medicaid
expansion. "The New York Times" estimates an additional 8 million
Americans living in poverty could be insured if all states opted in. In
Oregon, 56,000 people have been insured by the Medicaid expansion alone,
reducing that state`s uninsured population by 10 percent.

California has signed up 600,000 people. The other, more complicated
way Obamacare expands coverage is through health insurance exchanges and
only 16 states and the District of Columbia have set up their own. That
means the federal government has had to build the rest from scratch.

And when those federal health exchanges opened, they didn`t function
properly.

JON STEWART, COMEDY CENTRAL: I`m going to try and download every
movie ever made. And you try and sign up for Obamacare and we`ll see which
happens first.

KATHLEEN SEBELIUS, HHS SECRETARY: OK.

STEWART: What`s going on with this? Is this working? Is this not
working?

SEBELIUS: Well, the great news is we have a terrific market.

HAYES: Almost three weeks later, we know that not only was the site
overloaded with traffic, there are also huge persisting problems on the
back end of healthcare.gov.

ROBERT GIBBS, FORMER WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: I hope they`re
working day and night to get this done. When they get it fixed, I hope
they fire some people that were in charge of making sure that this thing
was supposed to work.

HAYES: Meanwhile, the state-run exchanges have fared better. In New
York state health exchange, 40,000 people have completed applications, but
even with some state functioning, it`s clear the launch has not gone
according to plan.

Yes, Republicans are working overtime to sabotage the president`s
health care law, but the political legacy of Obamacare will be determined
by whether or not it works. And right now, that is a very open question.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HAYES: Tonight, NBC News is reporting the Affordable Care Act`s Web
site will be coming down for repairs this week. So, it will be the second
time the insurance exchange site has been pulled so that fixes can be made.

A White House official has also told NBC News it is not going to roll
out the Spanish enrolment tool on the healthcare Web site on Monday.

Joining me now to discuss the latest developments is the man who`s
been tracking this as much anyone, Ezra Klein, MSNBC policy analyst and
editor of "The Washington Post" "Wonk Blog" and the just launched
Nomore.WashingtonPost.com.

All right. Ezra, how should I think about the first three weeks of
Obamacare as someone who wants to program to work and also does not want to
be in a reality allergic cocoon of telling myself what I want to hear?
What should I think of these first three weeks?

EZRA KLEIN, WASHINGTON POST: You should think badly of it. It has
gone badly. I`ve been very -- I`ve tried to be very up front about this
with folks because I think it`s -- you know, I think it is a very important
thing for this bill to work. I think it is a very important thing for this
country, for the people in this country, for this law to work for our
health care system to be universal or at least very near to universal, for
it to be able to control costs.

And I think if you believe that, I think that if you believe that we
need to get this working, then you should be that much more unsparing --

HAYES: Right.

KLEIN: -- about the fact they have not gotten it working.

So, there are two things to worry about. One is that you`ve got this
traffic load problem, which is that you`ve just got -- I mean, they just
did not plan for the number of people who are coming to the exchange.

And they also created a bad architecture will you have to sign in
before you get to actually shop for anything. They tried some modest
things to alleviate that. It`s starting to get quite a bit better.

At "Wonk Blog", Sarah Kliff, we were able to actually go through the
entire enrolment process this week, it was a big day for "Wonk Blog."

But the other problem and the thing that I was hearing about a couple
of months ago that I was talking to the Obama administration about, they
were telling me it was not going to be a problem, but it is a big problem,
is that the information being transmitted to insurers, about whether you
sign up, about how much you sign up for, about what your insurance status
will be, that information is garbled and it`s corrupted. Not literally
every single piece of it, but a lot of it.

And that if they can`t fix it, that is a much more severe problem
because if you give insurers the wrong information about people and they`re
in the wrong plan for them, or they`re not in the plan than they think are
creates real chaos and conflict and pain when this actually opens on
January 1st.

HAYES: One of the bits of good news has come on the non-exchange
side, which is the Medicaid expansion, and what striking me is as someone
from what you might call from the single payer left, there was always this
argument about taking existing programs and expanding them. Medicaid is a
big part of the Affordable Care Act. There was some discussion about
lowering the age of which people would be eligible for Medicare and so far,
it looks like that is going well.

KLEIN: Yes. That`s completely true. So, there are actually, in the
states that have agreed to expand Medicaid, and it`s 26 I believe, or 25
now, should be all of them. It`s incredible deal for the states. You`re
seeing huge numbers to sign up.

Let me say two quick things on this. One is that in a bunch of
states that did not have the federal government do the exchanges, the
online insurance market place, they`re working fine. In California, it`s
working fine. In Washington state, it`s working fine. You have a bunch of
real success stories. Kentucky, for instance.

The other thing is that, I agree, single payer, a whole lot simple
per. That is a clear advantage. It`s just much easier to sign people up
when it`s just that everybody is signed. We joke at the paper, what is the
Canadian health care like? You go to the health care (INAUDIBLE), it`s
just a big thing that says here, you have health care.

HAYES: Right.

KLEIN: Like everybody in Canada. So, yes, that`s a lot simpler.

But this is not impossible. Massachusetts has a law with a very
similar structure for years now. It has, I believe, brought the state up
to about 97 or 96 percent insure. This is not an impossible thing to do.
I do not -- I don`t want to let the administration off the hook by saying,
oh, it`s just so complicated.

HAYES: Right.

KLEIN: They should have been able to make this work and they need to
make it work going forward.

HAYES: And just so we`re clear here, I mean, we are three weeks in.
There is obviously a window, but the window, there`s still some more time
here. I mean, the official date is until March 15th when before any kind
of penalty from the mandate kicks in, am I right?

KLEIN: And they`ll probably end up extending that open enrollment
date.

Let me say what is the issue here -- so, if you talk to folks in the
health care community, they`ll say, you got a couple of weeks. It`s not
the end of the world. You get this working by mid-November, maybe early
December and you can live with it. That could be OK.

The problem is, and the thing that`s hard is that you`ve got to get
enough young and healthy people into the exchanges. So, in order to keep
premiums at a reasonable level, you need a mix of young, healthy people and
older, sicker people. And the older, sicker people who really need health
insurance badly, they`re going to get it. They`re going to -- if they
can`t get on the Web site, they`re going to call up.

HAYES: They`re going to keep trying.

KLEIN: They`re going to go through an insurance broker. They`ll keep
trying. They will figure it out.

It`s the young healthy folks who are always going to be the
difficulty because while some of them want insurance, a lot of them just --
it`s just not that big of a deal. And they`re not going to keep that back
--

(CROSSTALK)

KLEIN: Kind of expensive for them. So, if they don`t get this
working in time such as they lose a bunch of those folks who came once,
maybe they came twice, and gave up and decided to pay the mandate, the
problem is year two, you have these much higher premiums because the
insurers have all these sick people instead of these healthy people.

HAYES: MSNBC analyst Ezra Klein, thank you so much.

KLEIN: Thank you.

HAYES: Joining me now is Dr. Don Berwick, pediatrician. He was
appointed by President Obama to head up the Centers for Medicare and
Medicaid Services in a recess appointment, left his December 2011, after 42
Republican senators vowed to block an up-or-down on his nomination. He`s
now running for governor of Massachusetts, on the Democratic ticket.

And Dr. Kavita Patel, primary care physician, John Hopkins Hospital
and Brookings Institution fellow. She worked on the Affordable Care Act as
a senior advisor to Valerie Jarrett and the Obama administration.

It`s great to have you both here. You`re the two people on the
inside of this. We`re on the inside that I wanted to speak to most.

And, Don, I will begin with you. You were at CMS while this
implementation was happening. Why are we having trouble? Did you see it
coming? Is it your fault, Don Berwick?

DR. DONALD BERWICK (D), CANDIDATE FOR MA. GOV.: It`s a very hard
problem. The interfaces that have to be created to make the federal
exchange work right are extremely complex. Many agencies, states, they had
to interface with Medicaid, with the Internal Revenue Service, this is a
big job. It should have been done better. I wish we didn`t have the
problems we face now.

But in some way, I wish people would just take a deep breath here.
We are in a multi-decade, majestic trajectory for this country, getting us
to health care is a human right. We have a big technical problem here. It
has to be solved. It will be solved, I`m totally sure.

But I wish we`d just get some perspective here. We`re trying to help
our country migrate into a whole new health care era and we will do it.
This will be fixed. I`m absolutely sure it will be fixed. Too much
depends on it.

HAYES: OK. So, why are you so sure? I want to lay out the panic
scenario and disabuse me the panic scenario. Here`s the panic scenario.
The panic scenario as just laid out by Ezra Klein.

In order for these insurance pools to work, you`ve got to get young,
healthy people as part of them so that you balance the risk. You pool the
risk. That`s always what, that`s why the mandate exists, right? If you
have this glitchy program in which only people desperate for insurance, who
are mostly likely to be older and sick, you have this perverse adverse
selection via web glitch where you`re creating risk pools that are
disproportionately often sick and you`re going to crush this whole markets
and the whole thing is going to come apart at the seams.

Why is -- why should I not panic about that?

BERWICK: Well, there are a lot of ifs in that scenario. If younger,
healthier people would selectively not enroll, that it won`t be fixed in
time for them to be perfectly happy to be in it. You know, it`s better to
have insurance than not to have insurance. And now, we`re going to get
people an opportunity to get insurance, once this technical problem has
gotten over.

We also have the example of states, Chris. We have -- California is
a magnificent example. That exchange is up and running very well.

And in my own state, Massachusetts, which is the only state right now
in which health care is really a human right, we`re at about 98 percent
enrollment and it took some hiccups to get there. It didn`t roll out
exactly right. But please look ahead a little bit.

Yes, you can be doomsday if you want, but I don`t feel that way at
all.

HAYES: I want to come back to Massachusetts.

But, Kavita, first, I`m curious if you feel the same way as Don did,
that everyone should be taking a deep breath.

DR. KAVITA PATEL, PRIMARY CARE PHYSICIAN: I agree. Chris, the
concern is absolutely legitimate. I was not surprised by some of the
hiccups that we saw object in October 1st in the first couple of hours and
the first couple of days. But, honestly, I mean, we have a lot we need to
do.

And I think Ezra is exactly right. It`s really, we have until March,
you`re correct, but if someone`s been enrolling as we`ve seen so far, it
takes six to eight weeks to verify that, and they want to have their
coverage start January 1st, I mean, we`re really kind of coming down to the
wire.

So, I don`t think we need to panic. We`ve absolutely seen that even
if the Web site`s down, we know that the average wait time is still under a
minute for the phone number, so I think there`s a lot we can actually do
right now not to panic.

And to be honest with you, I think all the negative information kind
of hides over the fact that we`re actually doing this. We`re actually
making this program work. And we`re getting to the health care that never
happened.

HAYES: I`m sorry, Kavita. That seems like a very low bar. I mean,
I`ve seen some numbers that are -- no, I`m serious. I`ve seen some numbers
that are really surprisingly low. I`ve seen numbers like 500 total people
in Colorado to sign up. Seven total people in Alaska.

I mean, that is not what I think the administration or anyone was
anticipating at three weeks.

PATEL: So, first, I actually think that sometimes, especially like
these low numbers, I also think the same low numbers, under ten in Alaska
and single digits in other states. I can`t tell you how much of that is
from people not being able to get through like Ezra had talked about when
they were trying to do it and you`re right.

And you`re right. I mean, when Secretary Sebelius has said that
they`re constantly working on it and taking the Web site down this weekend
I think reflects the fact, not that they`re taking a break, but that
they`re taking this very seriously. So, when I said the concern is
absolutely legitimate, and if we think the bar is low, then what we have to
do is really try, the administration and all of us in the health care
profession, which is what`s happening now, have to mount a concerted effort
to raise those numbers and it`s not going to just come from flooding the
Web site.

HAYES: Right.

PATEL: And it`s not going to just come from flooding the Web site.
It has to come from a multiple kind of media modality. I mean, what
happened to picking up the good old fashioned phone? I mean, the Obama
campaign ran on an amazing multimedia platform. We`ve got to bring that
back in.

HAYES: Don, you are someone who was the target of implacable
Republican existence for, if I can editorialize for a moment, absolutely no
good reason. And you got to see firsthand the tangible effects of the kind
of sabotage campaign of the Republican Party.

Did they have tangible effects in terms of implementation?

BERWICK: Yes, it did.

Let me first say there was a lot that was not affected by the
Republican opposition. If you look at the benefit structures that have
come into place in the Affordable Care Act, they`re already so successful
in my opinion that you couldn`t take this act away, covering prevention
benefits, kids under 26, more discipline in the insurance market.

You couldn`t take this law down. It wouldn`t work. The public would
be outraged.

But I think the opposition I think it produced several factors that
inhibited success right now. Remember, I think success will be in our
hands. One is the administrative budget for the implementation of
Obamacare is tiny compared to what the real need probably was.

I think, if I remember correctly, we had about $1 billion of fungible
resources in the bill for the first two years of implementation. That`s a
fraction of what should have been devoted to this really important step for
America.

And I think the political climate caused a slowdown, a delay in the
issuing of badly needed regulations. Regulations signal the public and
private sector about the technical aspects of implementation. Those regs
appeared later than they should have been, hindsight is 20/20. But I think
the political climate made it hard to move with sufficient dispatch around
getting those guidelines out.

I think also, frankly, the panic itself is a product of the
opposition. If we were just mature about this, sat together and said, too
bad it didn`t go right next time. Let`s get it right now. Mr. Jones needs
to be able to sign up. We do it --

HAYES: The concerted national political consensus that we want
people to get insurance as opposed to a kind of concerted effort to root
for failure, that would be a different story as well.

Doctors Don Berwick and Kavita Patel, thank you both for your time.

BERWICK: Thank you, Chris.

HAYES: Coming up --

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. STEVE STOCKMAN (R), TEXAS: Our speaker has been vilified after
offering opportunity after opportunity to negotiate. The president on the
other hand said he`s not willing to negotiate with our speaker.

Now, the president wrote a letter to this individual who`s the head
of Iran. He`s negotiating with the head of Iran, who wants to eliminate
Syria -- I mean, eliminate Israel.

(EDN VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: One of those.

That was Congressman Steve Stockman, Republican from Texas, talking
about the government shutdown. He voted to keep the government shutdown.
He voted for default. He`s possibly the single most right wing member of
Congress. But he got a little secret we`re going to let you in on that
shows what he and his party are really about -- next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HAYES: Beloved viewers, I have taken a long time to prepare the
following very special ALL IN demonstration. So, please pay very close
attention. This is the official Miley Cyrus Facebook fan page. It has
close to 32 million fans.

Next up, we`ve got some unverified Miley Cyrus fan page called Miley
Cyrus Period. Who know? Anyway, this group has about 613,000 fans.

And now, for the country specific fan site, Miley Cyrus Venezuela,
178,000 fans, just from Venezuela.

So, I bet you`re wondering how the ALL IN Facebook page compares,
47,000 followers. We need your help badly.

Go to Facebook.com/allinwithchris, press follow, thanks for paying
attention. I might just sing "Wrecking Ball" if you click like.

Demonstration over.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HAYES: We just finished a series on this show about House
Republicans who shut down the government, and one of the people who didn`t
make it was Congressman Steve Stockman. He is the congressman who gave
members of the House a book calling for President Obama`s impeachment.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MIKE HUCKABEE, FOX NEWS: The word impeachment came up.

STOCKMAN: Right.

HUCKABEE: Is that a serious threat?

STOCKMAN: Well, I think we have a lot of options, a lot of tools. I
think one of the tools you have as a congressman is to impeach somebody,
but I`m not saying that`s the first step. But I think it`s a step we need
to leave open.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: He`s the congressman who, along with Congressman Ted Yoho,
was linked to an Obama birther bill. Steve Stockman, who had a staff
member tried out a food stamp budget of $4.60 a day. That staffer
reporting back it was easy and should be cut by 12 percent. Yes, that
Steve stockman.

It seemed too easy for our series. I mean, his Twitter feed
alternates with self-parody. "If babies had guns, they wouldn`t be
aborted. To delusional, "As more and more Democrats abandoned Obama and
vote to end shutdown, cracks now even forming in the D.C. press," to oddly
celebratory, "Happy Leif Erickson day. Have the opportunity to meet the
new Norwegian ambassador."

Stockman is arguably lone of the most right wing members in all of
Congress, and according to him, the debt is all President Obama`s fault.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

STOCKMAN: This president is digging a hole so deep that we can`t dig
out of it. The amount of money we`re borrowing is predicted in four or
five years, it may take all the money in the world to buy our bonds. It
just mathematically doesn`t add up.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Now, Stockman not only voted to shut down the government the
first time, he also was among the 144 Republicans to vote down the shutdown
and bring on default the other night and, yet, what do you find if you go
to Steve Stockman`s web page?

Stockman introduces Keep NASA Act to shield agency from shutdown.
That headline from just two days ago is just underneath the top press
release on the congressman`s Web site titled, "Stockman Will Vote Against
Reckless Debt Spending Proposal."

Now, is Steve Stockman a former astronaut, a big time space
enthusiast?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

STOCKMAN: Hi, I`m Congressman Steve Stockman.

Today, I want to talk to you about the importance of educating our
youth. One of the best ways to educate our youth is to get them excited
about NASA and space.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Hey, who doesn`t like NASA? Steve Stockman loves it. He
represents Texas` 36th district, which happens to be home to NASA space
agency, which employees more than 3,000 people. Stockman has fought to get
them money. He railed against the effects of sequestration that they could
have on NASA.

And now, he has introduced the Keep NASA Open Act, so it never be
affected by a future government shutdown.

Those two headlines on his Web site, you see there, piled atop each
other tell you everything you need to know about understand about the
modern Republican Party, modern conservatives and the Tea Party movement as
a whole. Despite what you have been told, despite what commentators across
the spectrum solemnly intone over and over, the American right is simply
not chiefly concerned with the debt, and deficit and government spending.
And they also aren`t actually concerned with the size of government, though
that`s what they drone on about endlessly.

No, what this fight is really all about is what government does, who
it serves and who it benefits. Steve Stockman likes his government very
much when it`s employing the members of his district. He doesn`t seem to
care about women and infants getting formula in North Carolina, or people
on welfare in Arizona getting kicked off. Just like the Olmsted Locks and
Dam project we brought you yesterday, an extra $1.2 billion in
authorization from multibillion project in Senate Minority Leader Mitch
McConnell`s home state, and just like former Congressman Parker Griffith,
who switched from the Democratic to Republican Party back in 2009, citing
Obamacare as a major reason, but who also just happened to be upset that
under the Obama budget, a defense contractor in his district would be
losing business.

Republicans are fine with government when it`s doing the things they
like, when it`s helping their people. So never, ever take their word when
Republicans and conservatives look you in the eye and tell you the reason
they`re shutting down the government or sabotaging social programs, or
taking money from hungry people is because of some abstract principle
defense of liberty and limited government. It is demonstrably not true.
And if you want evidence to just how baldly false it is, just go to their
Web sites.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

STOCKMAN: Please join me in saving NASA and let`s shoot for the
moon.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: What do you think of the possibility of Ray Kelly being
nominated to head DHS?

BEN JEALOUS, NAACP: If he gets nominated, he will face the fiercest
opposition from the civil rights community that any person put forward by
President Obama ever has.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: That was the NAACP`s Ben Jealous on this show, talking about
the possibility of New York City Police Commissioner Ray Kelly being
nominated for the vacancy to run the Department of Homeland Security.

For much of the summer, we`ve covered that vacancy and the movement
to put Kelly in the job had strong backing on both Democrats and
Republicans. The president himself described even Kelly as one of the best
there is, and someone who had done an extraordinary job in New York.

The reason we spent a lot of time on this story is simple, the
thought of President Obama tapping Ray Kelly to run DHS seemed, well,
unthinkable.

Here`s what the president had to say in the wake of the Trayvon
Martin verdict.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: There are very few
African-American men in this country who haven`t had the experience of
being followed when they`re shopping around the department store. That
includes me.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Ray Kelly has championed one of the biggest racial profiling
operations in American history, New York`s stop-and-frisk policy, which
overwhelmingly targets black and Latino New Yorkers, most of who have done
nothing wrong.

And, which have recently found to be unconstitutional by a federal
judge after a lengthy trial. Well, this afternoon, the president delivered
some welcome news. Ray Kelly will not be the next head of DHS. A
sprawling bureaucracy that includes 240,000 employees spread across 22
government agencies.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PRES. OBAMA: Today, I am proud to announce my choice to lead them,
an outstanding public servant who I have known and trusted for years, Mr.
Jeh Johnson.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Johnson, who must now be confirmed by the senate, is the
former general counsel at the pentagon. He has been a part of some of the
most controversial decisions made in the Obamastration`s war on terror.

Joining me now is retired United States Air Force Colonel Morris
Davis, former chief prosecutor for the military commission at Guantanamo
Bay, Cuba. He resigned from the position in 2007. He worked with Jeh
Johnson, when Johnson was the general counsel for the Air Force.

And, Colonel, the reason why I wanted to have you on tonight is that
you have been a real critic of the legal architecture that has been
constructed around our battle with Al Qaeda and the interminable seemingly
war on terror and yet, the first thing I saw today on my twitter feed was
you praising Jeh Johnson, who has been at the center as a general counsel
at the department of defense in constructing a lot of that legal
architecture. Why are you so happy he got the job?

COL. MORRIS DAVIS, UNITED STATES AIR FORCE COLONEL: Well, you have to
start with the points you made. You know, when Ray Kelly was the leading
contender, compared to Ray Kelly, this is a marked improvement, but -- you
know, I have known Jeh Johnson, not closely, but since he became general
counsel of the Air Force in 1997 and he is very bright.

He is very reasonable. He is a good leader and I think he has got
all the skills that DHS really needs right now. Because it is an
organization that, you know, is in a lot of turmoil. Moral is low. It has
an important mission and it needs somebody like Jeh Johnson at the helm.

HAYES: One of the things that I think is so interesting about this
choice is that the DHS of course was constructed in the wake of 9/11 and is
a testament to the permanent normalization of our state of anxiety and war
essentially. And, of all the people in the administration Jeh Johnson is
basically the only one aside from the president to give a speech talking
about what the end of that post 9/11 period might look like.

He said in a speech at Oxford in 2012, "I do believe that on the
present course, there will come a tipping point, a tipping point at which
so many of the leaders and operatives of Al Qaeda and its affiliates have
been killed or captured such that Al Qaeda as we know it has been
effectively destroyed." You talked about a world passed the war and terror.
You think that is significant for his occupying this position?

COL. DAVIS: I think it is very important. And, I think -- you know,
folks ought to go look at that speech he gave in November of 2012 at
Oxford, where I think you get a real picture of the real Jeh Johnson. And,
I think it was encouraging when he talked about this global war on terror
is a kind of a misnomer.

It has to come to an end. The war is not at normal state, that peace
should be, and that at some point, we transition from this combat model to
a law enforcement model. So, I think those are very encouraging signs.
And, ones you don`t hear often from Obama Administration`s officials. I
think again, I think that`s the kind of attitude you want at the DHS.

HAYES: And, yet, he has been in the center of a set of decisions,
asserting the legality of things like the targeted killing of an American
citizen, in the expansion of the drone program. Signature strikes as they
call it, which are -- strikes in which we don`t know the names of the
targets and we strike them any way. Does that trouble you as someone who
has thought very hard in a wrestled with these issues for a long time?

COL. DAVIS: Well, it does. I mean he may not be the perfect choice,
but you know, I didn`t get a phone call. But, I think given the choices
out there, I mean I think you have got to take -- if you look on the
blogosphere now, you have got folks on the far left and the far right that
are unhappy with Jeh Johnson.

I think that is a good sign that both sides are dissatisfied, because
you mentioned some issues, where I disagree with him on; but, he also led
the effort. I mean he was all for closing Guantanamo. He led the effort
to repeal the Don`t Ask, Don`t Tell. He pushed back when the president
wanted to avoid the war powers resolution in Libya. So, I mean, he is an
independent thinker --

HAYES: That is interesting.

COL. DAVIS: -- He is a really good leader -- and, he is a really good
leader. He is an independent thinker. That is what you want at DHS.

HAYES: Very quickly, he was an outline of those trying to close
Guantanamo inside the administration. I have seen reporting to that effect
that you are saying that as well.

COL. DAVIS: Yes. Yes, I met with him when he was part of the
transition team in December of 2008, and he was on board with the
president`s decision to sign the order in January of 2009. And, I know he
gets some heat about reviving the military commission, so that was after it
became apparent that there was going to be a lot of roadblocks to closing
Guantanamo. He is a good man. I am really pleased with this choice.

HAYES: Retired United States Air Force Colonel Morris Davis. Thank
you so much for coming into the program.

COL. DAVIS: Sure.

HAYES: We will be right back with "Click 3."

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HAYES: Aftermath of the government shutdown and near debt ceiling
disaster, it looks like it is actually going to be a real problem for
republicans running for office. I will tell you more, ahead.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES (voice-over): But, first, I want to share the three awesomest
things on the internet today beginning with a cool new way to look at the
world. This map from "Doghouse Diaries" offers some amazing details about
our splendid planet. Like where to find most robots, and that will be
Japan as well as the most couscous that will be Morocco.

As one webcomic artist explains, most countries believe the world in
something. This map shows what each country does best compared to all
other countries. Come for the Cricket, stay for the Melanoma in Australia.
Canada just got slightly more exciting when leading the world to maple
syrup and asteroid impacts. While Russia offers only the best in
raspberries and nuclear warheads.

Need more personal space? Greenland is for you probably because no
one lives there. Then there is the U.S., a diverse, complex nation known
for its achievement, innovation and can-do spirit. There should be no
surprise then we are leading of the world in Nobel laureate and getting
kill by lawnmowers. USA! USA!

And, the second awesomest thing on the internet today, after 17 days
of government shutdown misery, the national zoo has reopened its doors and
a lot has happened. Two lions mated while a 100-year-old Tortoise went to
the great sand beach in the sky. And, of course, the Panda cam has
returned -- thank God! Bur, while many rejoiced the 24/7 live stream means
the end of all privacy for this little gal. It is still unnamed baby panda
was not too pleased about the nonstop surveillance.

PANDA: Ow. Ow. (Making noises)

HAYES (voice-over): Finally, an answer to one of life`s burning
questions. What does the panda say? It could now safely reminds us
"Hotty, hotty, hotty ho. And, the third awesomest thing on the internet
today offers us the very best in home decorum. And, it comes courtesy of
one of Mitt Romney`s sons, living in his older brother Tagg shadow for far
too long, Craig Romney who is ready for his close-up.

The website color issue offers a tour of his home and it is in a
word, delightful. There is a family swing. Books arranged by color, an
enchanted bathroom, a magical tepee straight out of the storybook. One
can`t help but wonder if all this is an effort to outdo dear old dad and
his fancy car elevators.

For example, we find the family dog not attached to the roof of a
car, but lounging gracefully on a cheerful love seat. And, while, you
lament with the state of your own living room right now filled with IKEA
and Broken Dreams, brace yourselves with the piece of resistance, the
staircase.

And, not just any kind of staircase, this staircase turns into a
freaking slide for the Romney kids to play on. Can I live here? And, as
you can see the little ones slide down the staircase and land on a soft and
beautiful pillow. The original plan was to have the children land in a
pile of money, but that would be overdoing it. You could find all the
links for tonight`s Click 3 on our website, allinwithchris.com. We will be
right back.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PRES. OBAMA: There are no winners here. These last few weeks have
inflicted completely unnecessary damage on our economy and, of course, we
know that the American people`s frustration with what goes on in this town
has never been higher. That is not a surprise that the American people are
completely fed up with Washington.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: That is true. There are no winners when it comes to the
shutdown, but the political collateral damage that continues to ripple
through the Republican Party cannot be ignored. Let`s start by looking at
senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, who even before the shutdown was
facing a strong challenge from his 2014 democratic challenger, Kentucky
Secretary State Alison Lundergan Grimes.

She has raised $2.5 million from July to September. She is slightly
more than McConnell`s nearly 2.3 million. Then, yesterday after the
shutdown, Matt Bevin, the Tea Party opponent on McConnell`s right, released
an ad criticizing McConnell for helping craft a deal to reopen the
government.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MATTHEW GRISWOLD BEVIN, AMERICAN BUSINESSMAN: For the past three
years, Washington has gone from crisis to crisis. Now, it seems that Mitch
McConnell has run another fight. Making deals with Washington democrats
like Harry Reid, to raise the debt limit again, without even consideration
for defunding or delaying Obama Care.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: It is not a very good ad, actually. Then, comes news today
that the senate conservatives` fund -- the same group, we told you about
yesterday, who accused McConnell of cutting a $2 billion deal in the
shutdown, announced that they will be supporting Bevin next year, because
-- well, McConnellwas ultimately the one who help put together the
bipartisan compromise to reopen the government.

We also appear to be seeing electoral ramifications in Virginia`s
gubernatorial race, where republican Ken Cuccinelli slipped eight points
behind democrat Terry McAuliffe on a new NBC News poll. For an election
that is less than month away in a state Obama took twice, where 38% of
registered voters of the shutdown would have a major impact on their vote.

On top of the news out of Virginia, there`s the analysis out today
from the political report, which regularly looks at the state and house and
senate races that points to 14 house races with the republican incumbent
lost ground in the wake of the shutdown. And, then there are the generic
ballot numbers, which measure whether voters want a generic republican or
democrat to control congress.

The democrats had seen a five-point improvement just the shutdown.
Besides what`s happening in Virginia voters will elect a new governor of
November 5th. It will be more than a year from midterm elections. And,
the nature of lot of these house districts still have republicans.

But, it is harder and harder on this latest episode hasn`t just hurt
the republican brand in the abstract. It has created tangible weakness for
its candidacy. Joining me now, Dorian Warren, Associate Professor of
Political Science and International Public Affairs at Columbia University;
Amy Davidson, Senior Editor at "The New Yorker" and Josh Barro, Politics
Editor at "Business Insider."

I want to start in Virginia because the 2009 Virginia gubernatorial
election was kind of a bellwether in certain ways. In so far, I think it
captured the national mood. It was a year out from Virginia going blue for
Obama in 2008, which was a huge deal. I mean people could not believe that
Obama had pulled this off and it was the first cresting wave, the
indication of the Tea Party wave that was to come with Bob McDonald`s
victory there.

And, now, we see a very, very different electorate with frankly a
democratic candidate who I have to say is not that strong. And, I think
that there is something to be said about Virginia as bellwether and
particularly given the kind of nature the Obama coalition, and I think it
says something about where the republican party is right now that
Cuccinelli`s having such a hard time.

JOSH BARRO, BUSINESS INSIDER POLITICAL EDITOR: Yes. I mean it is
hard to understand how bad a democratic candidate Terry McCauliffe is. His
favorable numbers are underwater by about 7.6. He is still going to win
easily in this election. And, it is because republicans managed to do even
worse. Cuccinelli was in bad shape before the shutdown happened. His
social conservatism is very hard edge. He is not selling well in Northern
Virginia. He has alienated a lot of business interests in Northern
Virginia. But, really, it is the shutdown in the last month that has
soured, I think --

HAYES: Yes. And, it has been the thing -- yes?

AMY DAVIDSON, THE NEW YORKER SENIOR EDITOR: Well, the shutdown is not
abstract in Virginia --

HAYES: Yes. You are right.

DAVIDSON: -- So many government workers there, so many companies
there that depend on government contracts. People know what it meant to
their neighbor. It wasn`t a joke and it wasn`t just about monument for
pandas. So, that is why it was not just a matter of principle or against
Obama and Obama Care. It is a matter of jobs.

HAYES: Right. And, you know, I want to talk about the kinds of
candidates that republicans are going to put up, because that is the other
big missing factor here. Now, I want to talk about Steve Lonegan and Chris
Christie and how the divide between those is basically a divide of like a
2014 that looks decent for republicans and one that looks disastrous.
Right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HAYES: We are back. I am here with Dorian Warren, Amy Davidson and
Josh Barro talking about the electoral ramifications of this big cluster
flock that was the government shutdown. And, here is the following Terry
McAuliffe and Ken Cuccinelli gubernatorial race in Virginia.

Before the shutdown, McAuliffe had a five-point lead. He had now has
an eight-point lead. And, you were making the point Dorian during the
break that it is actually maybe this isn`t such a bellwether, precisely,
because of what Amy just said

DORIAN WARREN, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL
SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC AFFAIRS: That is right. Let me
generalize Virginia precisely because it is a state that`s overly relying
on government employees and government contracts. So, those voters are
going to act differently than voters in Ohio.

But, I do think it is significant that McAuliffe can particularly are
starting to move to the left on a range of issues on social issues, on
economic issues. The question is, will he stay there. I think we are over
the era of the DLC and the Democratic Party and all of a sudden, the party
is becoming slightly more liberal at the same time that the Republican
Party is engaged in the civil war.

HAYES: The civil war part is interesting because that civil war,
which has manifest itself in primary -- big conservative primary campaigns
in 2010 and 2012. In some ways at the senate level is the single most
important thing about who will control the senate. It is about who comes
out of those republican primaries, what kind of candidates they feels.

And, I think the perfect micro cause of that is to compare how Steve
Lonegan did and how Chris Christie is doing in New Jersey, which is the
other big raise this year. Lonegan is your classic like Tea Party burn it
all down, campaign with Sarah Palin, then he lost.

BARRO: Yes.

HAYES: Chris Christie is pulling like 20 points ahead. I don`t like
Chris Christie. I think he is a terrible politics subsequently. I
actually personally, like, find him -- like unappealing, maybe I`m not
minority on that, particularly I am with the professional media -- but all
of that said, you have a choice republican you can nominate Steve Lonegan.
You can nominate Chris Christie.

BARRO: Yes. Well, actually, Chrisie is 30 points. So, he is even in
stronger case than you have. But, the thing that Christie does is, he like
-- when it`s popular in New Jersey to be a conservative, he is a
conservative.

And, when it is not popular in New Jersey to be a conservative, he is
pragmatic. He did not reject the Medicaid expansion when he had a big
Hurricane hit in the state. He went and worked with the president --

HAYES: Right.

BARRO: -- and was photographed with him and you had conservatives
with their heads exploding. But, you know, Christie is actually polling it
about a third of the black vote in New Jersey. He is pulling ahead among
non-white voters of his democratic candidates. These are numbers that are
just totally unheard of.

I wrote a piece about a week and a half ago on "Y" and I spoke with
an African-American mayor in the suburb of Philadelphia, who is saying that
he really thinks that black voters in New Jersey connected to Chris
Christie treating the president with respect in a way that most republican
office holders have not been, and it feels like a really low bar.

HAYES: No. It does feel like a low bar. Carmack waved his finger in
the president`s face.

BARRO: Right. Yes. But, so, it`s a formula that works. The
question is can Chris Christie sell that to other republicans as --

HAYES: Right. And, the question is, are all the republican primary
voters bought him that. That is the thing, because what we see -- I mean
let`s keep in mind. Republican primary voters have cost Mitch McConnell,
Senate Majority Leader, in two successive elections. I mean Christine
O`Donnell, Sharron Angle, Joe Miller, Richard Murdoch. I mean there are
about five or six winnable senate races --

BARRO: Todd Aiken.

HAYES: -- Todd Aiken -- winnable senate races that republican
primary voters have just screwed --

DAVIDSON: Yes. And, one thing with Chris Christie, just to finish up
with that he had a good week in a couple of ways. He is not in the senate,
who is not a part of the shutdown. And, also today, the New Jersey Supreme
Court ruled that gay marriage in New Jersey starts on Monday.

He previously vetoed a bill and that vetoed might have been
overridden, but that`s off the table. He is off the record with republican
primary voters as being against gay marriage. But, he has a state in which
the fight is over.

HAYES: Right.

DAVIDSON: He doesn`t have to antagonize moderates by being the
standard bearer against gay marriage.

WARREN: Well, I think that we keep in mind the modern Republican
Party is really two parties --

HAYES: Increasingly.

BARRO: The civil war started --

WARREN: -- Increasingly. The civil war started when Romney lost and
that --

HAYES: It started before Romney lost.

WARREN: But, it really -- it really started when he -- true. But,
it really started when he lost, and so, Christie again is an anomaly. He
is still kind of a Northern Republican. The Tea Party base is in the South
and I have been trying to think of an example of how to think through the
Tea Party. And, it`s really the Dixiecrats from 1948. The difference is,
the Dixiecrats left that Democratic Party --

HAYES: Right.

WARREN: -- and tried to start their own. The Tea Party is not going
anywhere. They have proven to be effective within the Republican Party,
and so I think we are going to see this play out for the next generation --

HAYES: And, that gives you --

WARREN: -- of the republican politics.

HAYES: -- that is giving you, your freedom works essentially
threatened -- you know, a break of the Tea Party -- like a formal break.
GOP is going to go the way of the Whig party. We do see -- whether or not
that happened, you think you are skeptical, right?

BARRO: Yes. I don`t think that can happen. The question is, how
much pain do the republicans have to go through before they realize that
there`s a problem.

HAYES: A lot.

BARRO: But -- But --

HAYES: Stop that thought for a second because the primary voters who
will determine these outcomes have not changed at all. I mean that is the
important thing.

DAVIDSON: But, they like Ted Cruz -- some of them -- the Tea Party
supporters like Ted Cruz more than they this support --

HAYES: -- his approval has gone up.

DAVIDSON: That is right. The real question is the Tea Party even
coherent enough to split away and be a cohesive. And, in a way -- for me
it doesn`t feel like this is a civil war in the sense that there are two
really cohesive parties. It feels like Beirut. It feels like there are
just a lot of republicans, who hate a lot of republicans. It`s just not --

HAYES: Tribal warfare animist grinding Israel.

DAVIDSON: And, it`s not even clear all the time there is -- it`s hard
to sort out exactly what the differences are, ideologically, politically.
Sometimes, they just seem to really, really not like each other or really
want something that another one has.

BARRO: I think there is also this thing. They are still holding the
House of Representatives. The map is favorable to them and they feel like
that favorable map insolates them. I don`t think it in place them as well
as they think.

HAYES: That is right.

BARRO: There is at some point -- I don`t know whether it is four
points, five points, or six points and the democrats have to win the
national popular vote buy to win back the house. It`s not an
insurmountable amount. And, if that happens in 2014, that I think is the
thing that finally will get through to republicans that you need to make
compromises --

HAYES: And, there are -- we should know they are fairly well -- they
are protected in so far, as I think there is only 17 or 18 or Boehner`s
caucus that are in districts that Barack Obama won in 2012. That`s a very
small knurl.

DAVIDSON: And, a lot of them I believe were among the ones, who --
among the 87 who voted for --

HAYES: Right. Yes, absolutely. I think all of them did, actually.
And, the other thing I think they think about, which is the important point
about Christie having a good week is, the most successful republican
politicians in the country right now are all governors. They have nothing
to do with Washington.

And, it is really difficult for a party to form its national party
based on controlling the house. Democrats learned that the hard way in the
1980s and it really did hurt the democrats for a long time and that is the
lesson republicans are learning right now. Dorian Warren from Columbia
University, Amy Davidson for "The New Yorker" and Josh Barro from Business
Insider, thank you for coming out on a Friday night.

WARREN: Thanks.

BARRO: Thanks.

HAYES: That is "All In" this evening. Special thanks to Gavin
Omelia for this snazzy bracelet. That was awesome and your father is
amazing. The "Rachel Maddow" Show starts right now. Good evening, Rachel.

RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC HOST: You get swag on your own show?

HAYES: Yes, dude! Gavin hooked me up. Check it out.

MADDOW: I am doing it all wrong. Thank you.

(LAUGHING)

HAYES: Happy great weekend.

MADDOW: Happy great weekend.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY
BE UPDATED.
END

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