Now, and without further ado...your hour-by-hour guide to Super Tuesday.
But remember, it's not about who wins the most states — it's about who snags the most delegates. Delegates nominate, states don't. This isn't like the general election.
12:30 p.m. ET: The "polls" close in West Virginia's odd Republican "event." I call it an "event" because it's sort of a caucus, sort of an internet experiment. The party thought it would be a good to announce their results first, so they'll pick a winner by lunchtime. This is a state former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has worked well. But if he doesn't take this event, it could signal a long night for him.
*West Virginia Update* NBC's John Yang says Romney officials had a "degree of confidence" they'd win West Virginia because it was an organizational contest. But with Sen. John McCain trailing, his backers switched their support to Mike Huckabee to deprive Romney of the win. Huckabee was expected to earn 18 delegates in the state. However, NBC affiliate WSAZ-TV of Huntington, W.Va., reported that Huckabee would give three of those delegates to the Ron Paul campaign in exchange for his support.
7 p.m. ET: Georgia becomes the second state to close its polls. And it's one that could be called quickly for Democrats. The Georgia Democratic electorate looks awfully similar to South Carolina, so Sen. Barack Obama could win big here. But if Obama isn't named as the early victor, it could spell problems for the candidate — especially with white voters.
As for the GOP side in Georgia, the expectation is that this will be a close 3-way race between the remaining Republicans. It's the first state where we may get to see "The Mike Huckabee Effect" first hand; Sen. John McCain could win the state with less than 40 percent.
*Georgia Update*
NBC projects Obama will win the Georgia Democratic primary, but it's too close to call on the GOP side, with McCain, Huckabee and Romney in a tight three-way contest.
8 p.m. ET: The biggest single poll close time of the night. This could be the first sign of a big night for McCain. He could have calls go his way in Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois and New Jersey. In addition, there are three other states he could potentially win: Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee. And if any of those states are called within minutes of the close, then it's likely to be a big night for the Arizona senator.
And then there's Massachusetts. What if the state is too close to call? What does that say about McCain's recent sprint toward the nomination?
On the Democratic side, this could be a good hour for Obama — Alabama, Delaware and Illinois could get called immediately if trends in those states are what I expect them to be. Meanwhile, the races in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Missouri and possibly New Jersey could be close enough that no call can be made. This would be good news for Obama.
As for Sen. Hillary Clinton, her camp is expecting Oklahoma and Tennessee, at a minimum, to be called quickly for the former first lady. Anything else called early for her would be icing. Particularly on the perception front, they'd like to beat Obama in Missouri. It's a neighboring state and a swing state in the general — it'd be the feather in the victory cap for either candidate.
*Updated NBC News PROJECTED WINNERS*:
- Alabama: Huckabee, Obama
- Arkansas: Clinton, Huckabee
- Connecticut: McCain, Obama
- Delaware: McCain, Obama
- Georgia: Obama
- Illinois: McCain, Obama
- Kansas: Obama
- Massachusetts: Clinton, Romney
- New Jersey: Clinton, McCain
- New York: Clinton, McCain
- North Dakota: Obama
- Oklahoma: Clinton, McCain
- Tennessee: Clinton
- Utah: Obama, Romney
- West Virginia: Huckabee
8:30 p.m. ET: Clinton's other home state, Arkansas, closes at this time, so one can assume an early call to be made in her favor.
On the Republican front, expect an early victory for favorite son and former Gov. Mike Huckabee.
If Arkansas isn't called early, that's not a good sign for either expected winner.
9 p.m. ET: The first set of caucus states will see their "doors close" at this time — Minnesota, Montana (a GOP-only contest), North Dakota and New Mexico (a Democrat-only contest). Obama has put more emphasis on the caucus states than Clinton, and Romney's done the same vs. McCain.
Keep in mind that the networks will not be doing entrance polling in these caucus states, therefore, projections won't be made without a lot of actual results coming in. It may take time before you see the caucus states called, with the lone exception of New Mexico.
That's because New Mexico is less a caucus and more a firehouse primary (secret ballot) and most importantly, the networks will be conducting exit polls there, possibly allowing for a projection sooner rather than later.
On the primary front, this time slot is when polls close in Arizona and New York, two states crucial to Clinton. She'd like to have a big win in New York that would push her to the 60 percent threshold, awarding her some bonus delegates.
Any victory for Clinton that has Obama getting much over 40 percent will be considered a disappointment.
As for Arizona, this is a state in which Obama has made a real effort. But can he woo the Latino vote? This is an exit poll I can't wait to see. If Obama can start polling into the 30s or 40s among this demographic, that could foretell a big night for him in California.
On the GOP side, this should be another big hour for McCain, as his delegate count will continue to grow with the additions of winner-take-all states like Arizona and New York.
10 p.m. : The only primary closing at this hour is Utah, which should be a nice win for Romney. On the Democratic side, who knows. This has been one of those states that neither candidate has a firm handle on.
One theory states that the Democrats in Utah are likely Obama types — an upper income, highly educated group. Then again, states populated with centrist Democrats (see Oklahoma, Tennessee) have tended to tilt Clinton. So, who knows.
And don't expect an early projection. The network exit polling folks just aren't sure how easy it will be to find Democrats to weigh-in on this contest.
Three caucus states also close at this time, including Colorado, Kansas (Democratic) and North Dakota (a GOP-only contest). Romney hopes to do well in Colorado and North Dakota, while on the Democratic side, Obama believes he'll score some delegate advantages. Keep a particularly close eye on Colorado for the Democrats, where the Clinton folks appear more confident in an Obama win then he actually does.
11 p.m. : This is the hour when California's polls close and it's a potentially make-or-break hour for Romney and Clinton. Both are counting on big wins.
Romney needs one to remain a viable contender; Clinton needs it to make sure she doesn't lose the perception primary.
Delegate wise, it appears California is split pretty much down the middle, but if Obama pulls a tiny upset and squeezes out a popular vote win, it'll be a perception blow to the Clinton campaign. All along, they've counted on California as their Feb. 5 firewall, hence the reason that there has been a Clinton in the state every day since the Florida primary.
On a side note, as much as it looked a few weeks ago that California could get lost in the
Super Tuesday shuffle, it appears that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's decision to move up the primary likely will be vindicated.
The California primary has not been this important, frankly, since '68 (with the possible exception of '84). California could save one candidacy (Romney) or propel three others (Clinton, Obama and McCain) forward. For that, Schwarzenegger deserves credit where credit is due.
Also closing this hour are the Minnesota GOP caucuses and the Idaho caucuses. But let's be realistic -- this hour (and perhaps the rest of the night) belongs to California.
12:30 a.m. : Good 'ol Alaska shuts down its caucuses, technically, on Feb. 6. This should be another caucus that Obama does well in on the Dem side (favorite son Mike Gravel isn't expected to register), while Romney and maybe even Ron Paul, will be vying for the GOP victory.
Considering all the grief McCain gives to Sen. Ted Stevens for his Alaska bridge to nowhere, I'd be shocked if Alaska Republicans rewarded McCain with many delegates.
So that's the night — the most exciting in presidential primary history. I can't wait. It's going to be an all-nighter, but so what?
Political junkies can sleep in July when the primaries are over.