updated 10/22/2003 5:35:21 AM ET 2003-10-22T09:35:21

Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean remain close atop an Iowa poll released Wednesday, but half of the voters who say they’re likely to vote in the Jan. 19 Democratic caucuses think it’s likely that President Bush will win re-election.

GEPHARDT, A MISSOURI congressman, had the backing of 22 percent in the Zogby poll and Dean, former governor of Vermont, had 21 percent. Dean was slightly ahead in a Zogby poll out in early September and they were tied in a poll last month by another organization.

About a fourth of the voters, 26 percent, were undecided. All the other Democratic candidates were in single digits in the new Zogby poll.

When retired Gen. Wesley Clark and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman were removed from the choices, Gephardt and Dean were still tied. Clark and Lieberman have decided they will not actively compete for the caucuses, focusing their efforts on other states with early contests.

John Kerry, a Massachusetts senator, was at 9 percent, while John Edwards, a North Carolina senator, and Clark were at 7 percent.

Lieberman was at 5 percent, while Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Carol Moseley Braun and Al Sharpton had 1 percent or less.

Asked whether they think Bush will win re-election, 49 percent said they think that is at least somewhat likely.

The poll of 500 voters was taken Oct. 20-21 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

© 2003 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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