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'Up with Steve Kornacki' for Sunday, February 1st, 2015

Read the transcript to the Sunday show

Show: UP with STEVE KORNACKI
Date: February 1, 2015
Guest: Wesley Lowery, Liz Mair, Mike Pesca, Jacob Jacobs, Mike Freeman,
Drew Magary


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

STEVE KORNACKI, MSNBC HOST: From the scandal to the showdown. Good
morning to everyone out there. Thanks for getting up with us on this
chilly first day in February, Super Sunday. Winter`s looking more like
winter with every passing minute. The latest details on this week`s big
storm in a moment.

Another big storm, I know. As I just hinted, if you could possibly have
forgotten, today is Super Bowl Sunday. It`s a big day every year. After
the fortnight we had, the entire season the NFL just had, this Super Bowl
seems in viewed with more importance than most. We have lots to get to
this morning.

A big show of sports, a big show of politics, a big show of news, all of it
ahead including reaction at the White House and across Japan to the
apparent death of another hostage at the hands of ISIS. Much more on that
story later as well.

But we begin this morning with that winter storm, another winter storm
already causing havoc as it makes its way from the Midwest over to the east
coast. As we come on the air from New York, a travel ban on large vehicles
is now in effect on the Ohio turnpike. Large trucks and trailers are now
banned from that road.

Looking at a live shot in Chicago that`s where a blizzard warning is right
now in effect. The storm has dumped several inches of snow in Iowa. New
England is still digging out from last week`s multiple feet of snow. New
England could be in the path of another winter storm right now.

MSNBC meteorologist, Dominica Davis is here with all that we can expect --
Dominica.

DOMINICA DAVIS, MSNBC METEOROLOGIST: Yes. Good morning. We are looking
at 23 states right now that are under winter warning advisories, warnings
or advisories. That extends all the way from the great lakes right through
the northeast and into New England.

So this is going to be a very active area as we go over the next 24 and
even 48 hours. Here`s a look at the radar right now. Much of the action
is sitting out in the Midwest. Chicago, as you mentioned, we do have that
blizzard warning.

Blizzard conditions are expected by 2:00 this afternoon. That is going to
last right through the evening. Des Moines coming in on some very heavy
snow this morning. You can see that rain/snow line cutting over
Indianapolis. This is with that storm.

The snow is more trending to the north. We have some sleet and freezing
rain that will be an issue with this system, too, as it continues to
progress off to the east.

Here`s a look at future cast, as we roll this through, by Sunday evening,
we`re looking at this snow starting to push into the New York area. You
can see the rain/snow line is coming in that Pittsburgh area and through
the Hudson Valley by tonight.

Still a tough call in New York whether we will see all snow or if it will
be a more snow/rain event, but certainly up through New England we are
looking at another all snow event that will last into Monday. Some pretty
decent snowfall coming in.

Boston could see another foot. Back through Detroit and Chicago will also
see snowfall up to a foot, back to you.

KORNACKI: So last year was the year they had the Super Bowl in New York or
New Jersey, imagine if that was the case tonight?

DAVIS: I know.

KORNACKI: Thanks for that, Dominica. Good report there. Turning now to
Super Sunday, it`s finally here. The parties, the drinking, the halftime
show, the clever ads, the cringe worthy ads, there is something for
everyone on Super Sunday.

Of course, there`s the big game itself. The New England Patriots, the
Seattle Seahawks, one team already a dynasty, the other seeking to become
the next dynasty. As Super Bowl match-ups go, this is an unusually great
one.

You have Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Gronk, Belichick, Pete
Carroll, there is so much to talk about, so much to look forward to in this
game tonight. But for the past two weeks most of the conversation has been
about underinflated footballs.

Accusations that the Patriots cheated, that any victory they might score on
the field tonight may ultimately be tainted. Here`s what we`ll do. Right
now, we`re going to start the show by trying to get the deflate-gate thing
out of the way.

If we do that now, all of us can enjoy the rest of Super Sunday, enjoy the
big game tonight, none of us will have to think about psi levels,
sophomoric puns involving the word balls.

First, I am from Massachusetts. I am a Patriots fan. I`m not necessarily
unbiased here. That said, though, let`s take a step back here and let`s
look at what we have heard about deflate-gate these past two weeks versus
what we actually know about it.

Number one, all of the initial reporting said that the trigger was an
interception of a Tom Brady pass in the AFC Championship game by Colts
linebacker, Dequel Jackson, who then ran to the sideline with the ball and
told his team that it felt soft.

That`s what we heard when this all began. But then Jackson stepped forward
and said actually he didn`t notice anything funny about the ball at all.
He didn`t say anything to anyone on the sideline about it, really?

How different were the footballs the Patriots were using? Tom Brady said
they felt right to him. In the second half they felt no different. In the
second half, the Patriots out-scored the Colts 28-0. The referee whose job
it is to pick up and reset the ball after every play did not notice
anything unusual the entire first half nor did the linebacker from the
Colts.

Number two, the report that turned this into a major national story came
from ESPN`s Chris Mortensen who cited unnamed league sources who told him
that 11 of the 12 Patriots balls tested at halftime were underinflated by
two pounds per square inch each.

But then another report, this time from Mike Florio of "Pro Football
Insider" and NBC Sports, his report said that actually 10 of the 12
Patriots footballs were only inflated by one pound per inch.

If they were only deflated by that much, it starts to raise the question of
whether the weather and game conditions might have played a role.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Our preparation process for the footballs is what we
do. I can`t speak for anybody else. It`s what we do and that process we
have found raises the psi approximately 1 pound.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KORNACKI: After Bill Belichick offered that explanation, you probably
remember this Bill Nye "The Science Guy" made headlines by saying that
Belichick was pedalling junk science. But then a graduate engineering
student at Carnegie Melon University conducted an elaborate experiment to
test Belichick`s theory.

And his conclusion was that it actually made sense. Then a host of highly
credentialed physics experts agreed with that Carnegie Melon graduate
student or how about this?

An article on Slate caused a frenzy last week when it claims that the
Patriots fumbled the football at an impossibly low rate that could only be
explained by cheating, by deflating the ball to make it easier for the
running back to grip so he doesn`t fumble it.

But then one statistics expert reviewed that Slate article and utterly
debunked it. Then there`s this. When the story first broke it was widely
reported that prior to the Patriots/Colts game that the balls were properly
checked by officials before the game.

Now comes this. The NFL finally in just the last few days confirming that,
quote, "When officials inspect footballs to see if they`re properly
inflated, they simply approve them or disapprove them."

In other words, there were no recordings taken before the Colts game about
what the exact ball levels were. The only recordings were taken at
halftime and after the game.

Let me suggest this, we will ever know for sure what happened here. It
seems possible this wasn`t nearly as sinister as many of the many headlines
we have read these past few weeks claim.

It seems possible that maybe the Patriots submitted footballs to the refs
that were slightly under inflated, and that the refs gave them the feel
test and approved it for play. If that happened, I would call it
gamesmanship. That`s what I think happened.

Given how much ambiguity is here, how much the actual facts have come out
have contradicted or cast doubt on some of the reporting we`ve seen the
last two weeks, can we put deflate-gate out of our minds? Can we enjoy the
game, salute the winner and not attach any asterisks?

Ed Shultz is the host of "The Ed Show" right here on MSNBC as well as a
former college quarterback with Minnesota State University. Also with us
is MSNBC contributor, Ed Rendell, the former governor of Pennsylvania, a
well-known Eagles fan and a panelist on "Postgame Live" which airs every
Eagles regular and postseason game.

Ed Schultz, let me start with you. I laid out my case. I`m a Patriots
fan, I`ll admit. I think this is a big bag of nothing, what do you think?

ED SCHULTZ, HOST, MSNBC "THE ED SHOW": Well, I think that the basic
operation of the football team is probably set in stone. Tom Brady has
been with the Patriots for a long time. It`s probably well known within
the organization how he likes the football.

Tom Brady has been there for 15 years. He`s made the organization a lot of
money. If he wants the balls deflated, that`s what`s going to happen. It
seems rare that all of a sudden there would be some kind of atmospheric
pressure type example or excuse given about footballs when we`ve never
heard it before.

There have been outdoor football games for decades in the NFL. I find that
comical. Brady calls the shots. He`s the linchpin of the organization.
There`s a lot of jealousy in the NFL right now because every coach in the
league would love to have half the success of Belichick.

Every coach in the league would love to have a guy like Tom Brady because
that means you have real good chance to get to the Super Bowl. The fact of
the matter is you have two premiere people, there`s a lot of envy going
around and they`ll try to get the Patriots any possible way they can.

That`s not to say that there wasn`t deflated footballs, there were. And I
think that it`s just another day at the office for the Patriots. They
always deflated, that`s the way Tom likes it. It`s no big deal. Now all
of a sudden this has blown up.

The irony in this is this, Pete Carroll is one of the biggest cheaters at
USC, he has got to be sitting there saying, you know, let them worry about
deflate-gate. I have few things in my closet, too, but we`ll be ready for
the game.

KORNACKI: Pete Carroll and the 2004 USC team had to vacate their win
because of massive violations. Governor Rendell, what Ed Schultz is saying
there I agree with it. Aaron Rodgers a few months back said he likes the
balls overinflated.

What he likes to do, they like to have extra air in them and they hope the
refs don`t notice. He`s happy if he gets out there and he says they don`t
notice. My guess is that`s what happened with the Patriots. To me, that`s
gamesmanship if that`s what it is.

ED RENDELL, MSNBC CONTRIBUTOR: I disagree, Steve. I think it`s cheating.
The NFL sets a level to what the ball should be inflated. I think Coach
Belichick`s explanation that the weather did it. The weather mysteriously
didn`t do it to the Colts footballs.

KORNACKI: Can I just -- let me respond to that? This is where -- if we
now know, contrary to the early reporting, that the referee did not measure
the balls, and could not feel the difference between the Colts balls and
the Patriots balls, isn`t it plausible that the Colts submitted balls that
were a pound heavier than the Patriots thus the disparity?

RENDELL: You can make up facts all you want. The fact is number one, let
me say first of all that I hope today`s game is a great game. They`re both
terrific football teams, neither of them need to cheat. But of course, the
Patriots, as a former prosecutor, you look at priors.

The Patriots have a prior conviction for very serious cheating. There`s no
question about that. Secondly, your factual account, it was very good, but
it left out the guy going into the bathroom with the balls.

KORNACKI: So, how -- so for --

RENDELL: Let me finish.

KORNACKI: For 90 seconds. Couldn`t he have gone to the bathroom?

RENDELL: With the balls?

KORNACKI: If your only job -- if you`re a young guy --

RENDELL: Not very likely.

KORNACKI: Put yourself in that guy`s shoes.

RENDELL: Steve, you`re a fan, you`re not looking at this objectively.

KORNACKI: No. No. Governor, this is very simple. If your job, your only
job is to be the guardian of official game footballs from NFL game for two
hours between when the game checks them and you have this bag of balls and
you have to go to the bathroom, if it`s me, I`m taking the balls into the
bathroom with me it will take me 90 seconds to go to the bathroom, give or
take.

RENDELL: You will take 12 footballs into the bathroom, ludicrous.

KORNACKI: In a bag.

RENDELL: There`s an answer to this. The answer is that the Patriots
should submit all of their employees to a polygraph test. It`s important
enough because the integrity of the game is at stake here. We`ve got a
team that clearly was found to have cheated and penalized severely before.
What`s wrong with asking everyone, that employee who went into the
bathroom, everyone else to take a polygraph test?

KORNACKI: I just keep --

RENDELL: What`s wrong with that?

KORNACKI: Keep in mind on the spy-gate thing that other teams were doing
that for years as well.

RENDELL: But that`s no excuse.

KORNACKI: No, I understand.

RENDELL: That`s no excuse.

KORNACKI: But also keep in mind the Patriots have done better since spy-
gate than before. Ed, part of the discussion and the debate I`m having
with Governor Rendell is the issue of cheating and gamesmanship. There`s
holding on every play in football.

That means on every play there are players willingly violating the rules to
get a competitive advantage. The receiver will trap the ball. He tries to
fool the ref. We call that gamesmanship. I put this in that same
category.

SCHULTZ: Well, I think the Patriots are probably have been doing so long,
they think it`s standard operating procedure and never thought nothing of
it. The quarterback wants the football a certain way. Quarterbacks have
more idiosyncrasies than any other player on the team. They`ll only warm
up with certain players.

They`ll warm up a certain way. They`ll -- Dan Marino had his own locker
room with the Dolphins and he only allowed a certain number of players in
there. If he didn`t like them, they weren`t going to be in there.
Quarterbacks are the guys that run the show once they`re proven and a
winning commodity.

What they want goes. Everybody in the organization knows that. They don`t
challenge that. I believe Brady. I believe that Brady at that press
conference when he says I don`t know, I didn`t talk to the ball boy, I
didn`t worry about the balls, because he knows they`ll be right.

He knows that the organization or whoever has handled the balls, this is
how Tom likes it. This is what we`ll do.

KORNACKI: But -- but the weakness there is -- I think there`s a difference
between if the Patriots are submitting these balls ahead of time to the
ref, then the onus is on the ref. If the ref feels something wrong, if the
ref weighs them properly, the ref can change it.

If the Patriots mess with it after that, I think it`s entirely different
than if the Patriots submit them under inflated ahead of time. The report
that comes out suggests that is possible. I want quick predictions on the
game tonight. Ed Schultz, who will win?

SCHULTZ: Well, I think Seattle probably has an advantage because of the
mobility of Wilson. I think the Patriots are going to have a hard time
containing him if they do then they have a better chance of winning the
game. Third down conversions will be big against Seattle because of the
elusiveness of their quarterback. I think there will be a special official
checking the inflated balls before the game.

KORNACKI: That`s true. Governor Rendell, who will win?

RENDELL: First, I think the Patriots will win. Let me say this, when Ed
says to get the balls right, that`s wrong. It`s wrong, maybe they`re
getting them right from their standpoint, but it violates the rules. It`s
like a baseball pitcher putting an illegal substance on the ball it may
help him grip the ball, but it`s a violation of the rules.

(CROSSTALK)

KORNACKI: In the context of the game --

RENDELL: Officer -- people break the rules by -- officer I was driving
with only 2-1/2 drinks. It`s the law.

KORNACKI: All the Eagles linemen who hold on every play are cheaters. We
established that.

Ed Schultz, of course, you`ll see him right here weekdays at 5:00 p.m.,
"The Ed Show" and thanks again to Governor Ed Rendell, there`s always next
year for the Eagles. Thanks to both of you, really appreciate that and
enjoy tonight`s game.

All right, still ahead, Jeb Bush opens up about his marijuana use in school
as the topic is shaping up to be the new gay marriage of GOP politics.
We`ll talk about that and more next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KORNACKI: All right. With so much going on, time to get caught up on
other headlines making news. Here is our panel. Joy Reid, she is the host
of MSNBC`s "THE REID REPORT." Wesley Lowery is a reporter with the
"Washington Post." Liz Mair is a Republican consultant and Mike Pesca is a
sports contributor with NPR and a host of the podcast "The Gist" on Slate.
Welcome, everybody.

We will move away from the Super Bowl here for a second. I have a feeling
we`ll come back at some point. The biggest news in politics, the "Des
Moines Register" released a new poll for the Iowa caucuses.

And it shows Scott Walker, Scott Walker, the Wisconsin governor, he`s been
getting a lot of attention, he`s surge in surging. Before Mitt Romney
dropped out, he was leading with 21 percent of the vote.

You take Mitt Romney out of it, Scott Walker is in first place with 16,
Rand Paul behind it 15, Huckabee at 13, Ben Carson at 10, and Jeb Bush all
the way back in fifth place at 9 percent.

The significance of this is for Scott Walker, who a lot of people don`t
know right now. This gives him credibility. This allows donors to say
this guy is for real. I know it`s a year out, but this is a big moment in
the invisible primary.

JOY REID, MNSBC`S "THE REID REPORT": You know there are too many people in
the primary when 15 is the big lead. He`s 5 points behind Herman Cain.
For people who do this for a living, you know this better than I do I think
Scott Walker has a huge upside for a lot of reasons.

LIZ MAIR, REPUBLICAN CONSULTANT: Full disclosure, my firm has consulted
for Scott Walker, he`s a former client, but this is an important moment.
If his team is able to capitalize on this it`s something that could prove
to be valuable to them even though we are so far out.

I also would say with a note of caution, we are very far out. I think when
you look back on the 2012 cycle, even given the fact that in many respects
Mitt Romney looked like the only really serious candidate the way through,
you saw tremendous ups and downs. We will with this as well.

MIKE PESCA, SLATE`S "THE GIST": Not only are we far out from the caucuses,
but does Iowa matter so much? I mean, the social conservative of such an
edge and those guys often go on to get slaughtered in New Hampshire.

I would also say two things, the people who are leading in the straw polls
or these Twitter polls, state fair polls, you can pave the roads from
council bluffs to Des Moines with the bodies of those.

I could only say what Scott Walker is appealing, you know, Wisconsin
governor. What are his issues on international policies? What does he
think of this settlement in Israel? What is his real nuance position on
Ukraine? Because he`s so unknown --

KORNACKI: Some of those may be waiting on Hillary Clinton`s answers.

(CROSSTALK)

KORNACKI: Let`s see what else. We have a couple other headlines. This
from the "New York Times" this morning, "At this party you better keep it
down." You heard of Sheriff Joe Arpio, this is in his backyard, he
arranged a Super Bowl party, but because he makes inmates sleep on pink
sheets and wear pink underwear, the popcorn will be colored pink.

This is also the first time they will get to watch -- there are three
channels that Sheriff Joe usually lets the inmates watch, the Weather
Channel, C-Span and the Food Network. He`s making an exception tonight to
watch the Super Bowl.

REID: What is wrong with him? I think mental health counselling is
something that is very much needed for him.

KORNACKI: Don`t you think pink popcorn is good?

WESLEY LOWERY, "THE WASHINGTON POST": I don`t quite get the gender
politics of the pink popcorn, but I guess, if I was an inmate and tortured
by the Weather Channel, this is the highlight of the year almost.

(CROSSTALK)

REID: I like C-Span.

KORNACKI: I`m one of 11 people.

PESCA: Are they turning off book TV? What if Robert Carrow is doing an
interesting talk?

KORNACKI: Tonight, three hours on Bess Truman. We have "Politico" saying
is pot the new gay marriage for the GOP? Most Republicans don`t want to
talk about pot. They want to punt it to states. A series of initiatives
to legalize pot, though, could be on balance in 2016.

Among potential GOP candidates some say they are open to decriminalizing
it, none favors outright legalization, but the suggestion here that you
talk about the Republican struggle with young voters, the incredible
support among young voters for marijuana decriminalization or legalization
maybe an opportunity here.

You see Rand Paul is certainly picking up on it. Maybe other Republicans
will?

MAIR: Well, I think certainly when you look at where Rand Paul has been.
He doesn`t necessarily talk about this in the way that I think a lot of
people might like him to, to be really far out on it where a lot of younger
voters are per se.

However, you do have a lot of discussion about sentencing reform and things
like that, and I think that that`s a common strain. That`s something
interesting and intriguing to younger voters about Rand Paul amongst other
things.

So I think that he obviously is showing some ability to capitalize on that.
He`s a big name in the party. So I think that`s important. In terms of
people coming out and calling for full-on legalization, I don`t really see
a lot of Democrats doing that.

REID: I think the other issue is that Democrats are always so terrified of
looking like the party that`s not tough on crime that you don`t even have a
lot of Democrats that are willing to be really forward leaning on full
decriminalization. I think that there is a constituency for it. I would
like to see some Democrats actually get out ahead of it but so far --

KORNACKI: There`s still some time left. We have to squeeze a break in
here. There`s an interesting story in the news about tipping and coffee.
I`ll tell you about that right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KORNACKI: All right, we`re back with the panel. We`re talking about some
of the headlines catching our eyes this week and here`s an entertaining one
from "The New York Times." Headline is $3 tip on a $4 cup of coffee. That
would be a 75 percent tip or something if my math is right.

So the idea here is that a lot of coffee shops, places like that are
getting into automated tipping. If you go to a coffee shop, you might see
a little jar sometimes near it. But now you can punch in, it will give you
an option like 20, 25 percent, 30 percent.

It`s there for you to add on to your credit card or whatever. The idea is
that maybe some of these workers are not making that much hourly, it`s a
chance for you to give them more. Apparently the research done shows
people tip more when it`s put to them that way.

When I go to a coffee shop and I get a cup of coffee, do you need to tip
for this? I try to tip for everything, but I always wondered.

REID: The point that you made is the right one, which is that the hourly
workers in these places are making so little money. There is a tendency if
you pay cash, at Dunkin` Donuts just leave the rest of the change.

But now the coffee itself is so expensive, it is prohibitive to some people
to tip. If you have an option of punching in 10 percent, you will give
more.

PESCA: The automatic tipping option in cabs has increased the tipping.
Here`s your 15 percent and thanks for the free math. I always tip in
restaurants. I always, always tip maids in hotels. Those people keep
almost all those salaries for tips. For cab drivers and baristas, it`s a
small percentage of their salaries so it`s not -- less.

KORNACKI: I do it in hotels, too. Dunkin` Donuts, I`m never been sure.

We are running out of time here, but I did want to get to the "Calgary Sun"
reporting on a weird story, the Zamboni driver busted for dui during a
hockey game. This was in Fargo, North Dakota. He was arrested for dui
after cleaning the ice drunk during a high school --

REID: How could you tell?

KORNACKI: Amazing, absolutely one of the best stories of the week. Glad
no one was on the ice. Glad we got the picture.

This is a little brief because I went long yelling at Ed Schultz and Ed
Rendell. Thanks to the panel. We`ll see you again later this hour and we
are still tracking that massive winter storm that has dumped several inches
of snow on part of the Midwest. It`s heading east. Later this morning we
will go live to Chicago which is under a blizzard warning as we speak.

Next, we will go to Glendale, Arizona. That`s the site of Super Bowl XLIX,
and why this game could go down in the history books. No mention of
inflated footballs, I promise.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KORNACKI: Some of those Super Bowl parties that have attracted thousands
of people to the Phoenix area the week before the game. That`s the one
part of the super bowl we have not talked much about. The Super Bowl
itself, the game.

This game, Super Bowl XLIX could be historic. Patriots` Tom Brady and Bill
Belichick have a chance to tie the record for the most Super Bowl titles of
any coach-quarterback combination. This would be their fourth. This is
the sixth Super Bowl overall they`ve been in together.

Seahawks Coach Pete Carroll could become the first coach to win two Super
Bowls and two college national championships although Carroll`s 2004 USC
team was later forced to vacate the victories from that season because of
NCAA violations committed on his watch.

There are also the more personal storylines like the fact that Pete Carroll
was the Patriots` head coach until he was fired after the 1999 season and
he was then replaced by Bill Belichick.

The big question is who will win this game? MSNBC`s Craig Melvin is there
to sort all of that out for us and here at the table we have Mike Pesca
again. He is a sports contributor with NPR and host of the podcast, "The
Gist" on Slates.

So Craig, we`re trying to get the whole deflate thing out of the way.
Considering it done now in terms of what you`ve seen out there from these
two teams, getting ready for this game tonight, what are you expecting?

CRAIG MELVIN, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: On paper, Steve, we should be in for a
fantastic football game. You have the team with the best record from the
AFC, the Pats and the team with the best record from the NFC, the Seahawks,
squaring off. This is fairly unusual for a Super Bowl.

At last check, we don`t expect the change, the Patriots are favored.
They`re favored by just one point. We`re still trying to do some research
to figure out when the last time the number was that low. So we should be
in for a fantastic game.

You know, it`s been played here in the dome. Weather won`t be an issue
although they are going to pull the dome back. They`ll have the
retractable roof open. It`s 64,000 folks who will squeeze in here.

Several hundred thousand have descended on phoenix the past few days for
the big game. The excitement level is high. We spent a lot of time over
the past few days talking to fans. As you indicated, you have so many
story lines that are part of this game.

You didn`t mention Richard Sherman whose girlfriend is expected to give
birth any day. Marshawn Lynch, whose relationship with the media garners
headlines and the balls that we will not talk about.

KORNACKI: Thank you.

MELVIN: We won`t talk about that.

KORNACKI: Let`s take that as a segue way. You mentioned Marshawn Lynch,
he obviously stole the show at the media day this week with his, you know,
I`m only here because I don`t want to get fined and those sorts of antics.

People who are seeing Marshawn Lynch for the first time this week, talk
about his importance to the Seattle team, does that personality we saw in
public, does that cause problems in the locker room? Do the teammates like
that?

PESCA: Richard Sherman talks so much. You need other people to be quiet.
It`s fine. I think he`s loved. He`s loved because he`s so important to
the team. Symbolically, he`s the embodiment of what they are. A team that
will wear you down on offense, wear you down in the fourth quarter, they
call it beast mode.

They call it he`s fresh, he`s a 215-pound strong running back and their
offensive line and defense pummelled the other team. You see in the fourth
quarter he goes for these romps where he runs through the defense.

By the way, Legarrette Blount who is 250-pounds from the Patriots does
something similar. So yes, he`s really symbolically important. He`s
actually important and he fits in the overall thing that Seattle is trying
to do, which is the old school, old style beat with you defense and control
the ball.

Enough passing, but control the ball that`s why Seattle is a throwback and
contrast to the Patriots, which are really cutting edge in so many ways
because they are a Swiss Army knife. They could do maybe -- but they could
do so many things.

KORNACKI: The contrast between, you know, Marshawn Lynch, Pete Carroll,
Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, more on message, more dower -- very interesting
contrast stylistically. Much more on the Super Bowl and throughout the
show, but my thanks for right now to MSNBC`s Craig Melvin and Mike Pesca,
we`ll see you again in the next hour.

Still ahead, I plan to ambush my colleagues and some of the biggest names
from MSNBC and NBC and try to get them on the record with their Super Bowl
picks.

Plus Jeb Bush, pot, and a political attack from Rand Paul, we`ll tell you
what`s going on there in the world politics, that`s next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KORNACKI: So how can we connect the Super Bowl back to politics? Bill
Belichick, the Patriots coach and Jeb Bush, the likely Republican
presidential candidate, they both went to high school together. It`s true.
They were both at Phillips Andover Academy, an elite prep school in
Massachusetts in the late 1960s.

That is one of the nuggets in a new Boston globe profile of Jeb Bush`s high
school years that`s got a lot of people talking right now. The biggest
revelation seems to be Jeb`s admission of drug use while at school.

Now comes Rand Paul, one of Bush`s likely rivals for the Republican
nomination, calling that admission by Bush, quote, "Real hypocrisy" saying
that the people on our side, the Republicans, which include a lot of people
who made mistakes growing up admit their mistakes, but now still want to
put people in jail for that. That was from Rand Paul.

From the article, "The first time I really got stoned was in Jeb`s room."
That`s what a friend said of his high school years with Jeb Bush. Quote,
"He had a portable stereo with removable speakers. He put on Steppenwolf
for me."

The friend further said he once bought hashish from Bush, but didn`t
consider him a dealer for his part. Jeb is telling "The Globe" that he,
quote, "drink alcohol and smoke marijuana when he was at Andover and that
it was pretty common."

Jeb Bush is winning praise from political observers for his headh on
acknowledgement of his drug us past, but will this become an issue as the
campaigns move on?

In the late 1980s, Supreme Court nominee, Douglas Ginsburg, watched his
nomination go up in smoke because of college-aged marijuana use. But
candidates for president since then have been asked about use with little
repercussions.

The most famous leader was Bill Clinton, who first told reporters that he
had never broken any laws in the U.S., but when then asked as a student at
Oxford he had broken laws there, Clinton answered --

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

FORMER PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON: When I was in England, I experimented with
marijuana a time or two. I didn`t like it and didn`t inhale, never tried
it again.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KORNACKI: That is a response that became an immediate and enduring punch
line. When George W. Bush was confronted with loud rumors of carousing and
other elicit activity in college and for years after college, he liked to
clip it, quote, "When I was young and irresponsible, I was young and
irresponsible."

Youth drug use in the context of a presidential campaign is far from
unprecedented. Now that Jeb has admitted, is this something Rand and other
potential candidates will hammer him on? Is there any stigma still
attached to college drug use with the voters?

Back with us to talk about it, we have our panel, Joy Reid from MSNBC,
Wesley Lowery of the "Washington Post," and Republican consultant, Liz
Mair.

So my quick take on this is I think generally speaking when it comes to
like winning the November election, we`re pretty much over the idea of
somebody smoking marijuana in college or in youth or whatever. The
interesting thing to me here is how Rand Paul jumped on this.

Rand Paul didn`t do it from the shame on you, you used pot angle. He did
it from the shame on you, you would use it, and now you would punish people
using it in your same position.

LOWERY: You look at Rand Paul`s strategy at large on these types of
issues. A lot of it has been state`s rights and also it`s been this idea
of not having hypocrisy in the criminal justice system, not having
hypocrisy across a lot of these different issues.

It`s been part of Rand Paul`s playbook all year for the last year
essentially. It`s interesting to see Rand jump on Jeb in this way, very
different than what you would expect necessarily from a Republican.

REID: And at the same time, I think what`s interesting about it, too, and
I agree with you. I do think Rand Paul is actually the most interesting of
the potential candidates for that reason and a lot of others. But it
points to the fact there really are two kinds of drug use in this country.

There`s the drug use by the elite, which is written off as part of their
youth and this is something that`s recoverable from. And then there`s the
drug use by people who are poor or who are black or brown, where it is
essentially a straight ticket to prison.

So, I think that Rand Paul is pointing to a fundamental hypocrisy not just
in our politics, but in the country, which is that we are excusing behavior
among the elite that we literally prosecute to the fullest extent of the
law when we are talking about people.

KORNACKI: The Republican world, when they hear Rand Paul something like
this how do they react to that?

MAIR: Well, I think a couple of things, first of all, there are a lot of
people that I think, whether they agree with either Jeb Bush or Rand Paul
on policy, are very happy to see Rand Paul needling Jeb Bush a little bit.
I think there are a couple factions there.

First of all, there are people who just don`t like Jeb Bush, think that
he`s too establishment, too much of (inaudible) Republican in name only. I
think in addition to that, there are a lot of people who are going to be
concerned as this continues that Jeb Bush has not run for office for quite
a while.

He has got a lot of people on his team who have not been actively been
dabbling in politics in the current environment that we have, which is very
24/7. It is much more continuous, much more hard hitting --

KORNACKI: Do you think they can handle this one? From that standpoint, do
you think they handle this one well strategically?

MAIR: I think we will have to see. I think that it`s going to continue
playing out. I`m not convinced that they have. I think Rand Paul has been
very effective whether you look at the way he has been needling Jeb Bush on
common core or this and picking on things where he picks an issue that
really resonates.

Whether it`s with the base or people that Rand Paul is trying to engage,
and I think that minority voters, that`s very, very key for Rand Paul,
right?

He picks an issue -- whatever he is talking about resonates very well with
a targeted group. So it is substantively a good way to go after Bush and
also could very well end up exposing some real flaw`s in Bush`s operation
and his ability to handle these things.

KORNACKI: Is there still stigma -- you talked about Douglas Ginsburg of
the Supreme Court, could have been a Supreme Court justice, used marijuana
in college, couldn`t be a Supreme Court justice. Is there that stigma left
to that in politics?

REID: No, like infidelity Americans have caught up with Europe in the
sense of not trying to use someone`s personal behavior as a litmus test as
to whether they would be a good political leader. I think the public is
way ahead of the politics and even ahead of the president. People are slow
to admit that a lot of Americans tried marijuana.

KORNACKI: I guess, the next question is, there`s always be youthful. We
are young. We get sort of a pass. What happens to the politician who
comes out and says, yes, I still do it?

LOWERY: Yes, I can`t to see that guy. That`s going to be an awesome race
whenever that happens. That is kind of a signal of where we still have yet
to go. While we have gotten over some of these things, no we won`t
disqualify Clinton, Bush, or another Bush because they smoked marijuana in
college or said they stopped in college.

We`re wanting them to come out and say, yes, every once in a while at a
party at the Hamptons --

KORNACKI: Do you want this finger on the nuclear button?

MAIR: That was kind of like I was going to run for president, but then I
got high.

KORNACKI: Colorado, Washington State, may get some experiments out there.

Still ahead, it hasn`t been the best year for the NFL`s Roger Goodell. Can
tonight`s game do anything to change that other than end this season of
misery for the league?

Next, making friends wherever I go, the faces of MSNBC and NBC News weigh
in on the game whether they want to or not. Our very controversial video
is next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KORNACKI: All right. We are. We are deep in the bowels of 30 Rock right
now. You are getting a behind-the-scenes look of where we work every day.
What we would do today is give you a tour of the building, visit some of
the people in the building. Some faces you may know. Some faces you may
see on TV, and we`ll ask them about the big thing happening tonight.
Patriots/Seahawks who you cheering for?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I`m married to a Seattleite. So that ends the argument
there.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Much of America may be rooting for the Patriots
demise.

KRYSTAL BALL: Seattle, I think your coffee is terrible.

RACHEL MADDOW: I live in Massachusetts for me to say I`m cheering for the
Patriots feels like dog bites man.

DORIAN WARREN: I like the Seahawks. I like several of the players. They
are much more political as well.

ABBY HUNTSMAN: I`m not loyal to a team, but I`m loyal to a particular
person who happens to be in the NFL.

KORNACKI: Who`s that?

MADDOW: It`s not a lucky shirt. It`s lucky sweat pants, lucky socks,
lucky hat. I have a lucky beer.

RONAN FARROW: I`ll be there for the halftime show. I`ll be there for the
Gatorade at the end.

KORNACKI: This is my former boss, so Steve --

STEVE FRIEDMAN: Don`t hold that against me.

KORNACKI: Patriots or Seahawks, what do you think? We figured we would
sit in front of this picture of Brian Williams. I think that`s as close as
we`ll get. You wouldn`t take this from a politician.

Security guy, Patriots, Seahawks, any prediction?

JOSH BARRO: My prediction is 12 1/2 pounds per square inch going into the
bathroom at 11 pounds per square inch coming out of the bathroom.

JENNA WOLFE: This will all come down to how flat the balls are and if the
balls are flat enough, I think the Patriots have a shot at winning this
game.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think New England will win the game with fully
inflated footballs.

ARI MELBER: An interesting distinction between the two teams this weekend
is that one has been winning on the field, according to the rules. The
other has been rampantly cheating.

KORNACKI: When the Seahawks are brought to justice for that, it will be
wonderful.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KORNACKI: All right. Thanks to everybody who participated in that. Our
panel is back here. These cupcakes, if you can see, they`re special. You
have Patriots colors on the left, Seahawks colors on the right. So far
nobody has indulged. Now, I will go around quickly here, Liz Mair, your
prediction?

MAIR: I`m only here so I don`t get fined. I hope it`s the Seahawks. I`m
from Seattle. I hope we can pull it out. I have no idea. Tom Brady is a
hell of a quarterback.

KORNACKI: All right, Joy?

REID: My team didn`t make it, but I do predict that the Patriots will
bring Nerf balls to the game. Go Seahawks.

KORNACKI: There`s a novel joke. Wesley?

LOWERY: I grew up a Jets fan, I would love to see the Seahawks win, but I
think the Patriots will pull it off, no matter the inflation or deflation
issue, no matter how large or small the balls are.

REID: You think they`ll catch the Nerf ball?

LOWERY: I think the Patriots will probably pull it off but yes.

KORNACKI: Remember the super fan sketch in SNL, the Bears fans. The bears
could never lose. I`ll give mine, Pats, 243-6. I`ll give you the real one
later. Thanks for getting up this morning. Another full hour of news,
sports, politics straight ahead so stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KORNACKI: The season of controversy.

And thanks for staying with us this Sunday morning. As I like to keep
pointing out, it`s Super Sunday, Super Bowl Sunday morning. The game
starting at 6:30 tonight. If you`re the NFL, you`re probably glad the
season is just about to be over. If you`re a Patriot fan, you`ve probably
been on the receiving end of a lot of grief these past two weeks, or in my
case, these past few minutes. And if you`re a gambler by nature, you`ll
probably have a lot on the line. We`ll be delving into all of that ahead.
Also going to be looking this hour at what`s next for former Taliban
hostage Bowe Bergdahl. The military has a big decision to make about
whether to charge the Army sergeant with desertion, and there`s also
reaction from the White House this morning to the apparent execution of a
second Japanese hostage by ISIS. Lots to get to this morning, but first,
as we have been talking about all day, the biggest day in American
football, one of the biggest days in American life, a national, cultural
touchstone is finally here. For the league itself, the Super Bowl marks
the official end of what in many ways has been a year from hell.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DARREN MCKEE: Many people in America, if they went through the year you`ve
had, probably would have resigned or been fired. Can you envision any sort
of circumstances, which would lead you to resigning or being fired as your
job`s commissioner?

ROGER GOODELL, NFL COMMISSIONER: No, I can`t. I -- does that surprise
you? Listen, I -- it has been a tough year. It`s been a tough year on me
personally. It`s been a year of what I would say is humility and learning.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KORNACKI: Just one year ago this month on February 15, 2014, Baltimore
Ravens running back Ray Rice had a violent altercation with his then
fiancee, his now wife in a hotel elevator in Atlantic City. Rice was
initially suspended for the first two games of the season, that`s a
comparatively lenient punishment, as Slate put it at the time. In the NFL
smoking pot can get you suspended longer than allegedly knocking your wife
unconscious. Then in September a bombshell development. Footage of Rice
striking his wife was posted on TMZ. The video of him punching Janay Rice
and dragging her unconscious body shocked the country. Ray Rice was
promptly cut by the Ravens, the NFL suspended him indefinitely.
Commissioner Roger Goodell denied he`d seen the tape when he signed off on
that initial penalty of a two-game suspension.

Rice`s camp insisted otherwise, though. And for a time the outrage seemed
like it could cost Goodell his $44 million a year job. Federal court has
since overturned Rice`s suspension freeing him to play in the NFL again
only if there`s a team out there that`s willing to sign him.

An investigation commission by the NFL led by former FBI Director Robert
Mueller found no evidence that Goodell saw the tape. It also concluded,
though, that they could have done more in this case. The Rice scandal was
the biggest thing to happen to the NFL this year, turned its focus to
combating domestic violence and the look the other way culture that most
acknowledged has been a norm.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No more boys will be boys.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No more what`s the big deal?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No more it`s just the way he is.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No more he just has a temper.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KORNACKI: So, it has been the worst year in memory for the NFL, and all of
this without even mentioning the Adrian Peterson child abuse scandal. And
now, we look back on the last year and what, if anything, the NFL can do to
put this all firmly behind them. I`m joined by our panel for this. We
have got Bob Ryan, a former columnist with "The Boston Globe," author of
the bestselling book, "Scribe: My Life in Sports." I just read that book.
It`s a blast in Phoenix. We have Mike Freeman, author and NFL columnist
for "The Bleacher report, and MSNBC`s Joy Reid, host of the "Reid Report"
right here on set with me. Still giving me a grief about .

(CROSSTALK)

(LAUGHTER)

KORNACKI: So, Mike Freeman, let me start with you. Because we talked
about this. And we had you on the show, in fact, back in the fall when it
seemed like an open question, whether Goodell was going to survive as
commissioner. We played an intro there, that question he got asked this
week, you know, do you still deserve to keep your job? Just right out,
what is the status of Roger Goodell as the commissioner? Has he in a
professional sense weathered this and is he save for the future, or is
there still some doubt here?

MIKE FREEMAN, SPORTS COLUMNIST: Well, here is why Roger Goodell is safe,
it`s because of this, Steve. Money. He`s making a lot, a lot, a lot of
cash for the owners. So the owners are sort of using Roger Goodell. And I
think this is a point that a lot of people don`t get. Roger Goodell is a
human flak jacket for the owners. He`s a guy that takes all the grief
about what the NFL has done, while the owners are over here kind of being
quiet. And not the targets, and making a lot of money. Goodell is taking
the flack for them. And so, is he safe? He`s safe because of that, he`s
safe because he`s a perfect foil for the owners. Everyone goes after Roger
Goodell and not the owners. So, yeah, he`s pretty safe right now.

KORNACKI: So, Bob Ryan, in terms of damage -- there`s damage to Goodell
and there`s damage to the league itself. And obviously, that these
headlines have been so terrible. What happened in the Ray Rice situation
is so terrible, obviously. And yet, despite, you know, weeks of this you
look at the ratings Sunday to Sunday, you look at the ratings for the
playoffs, you look at what`s going to happen tonight. Do you think to fans
this has really changed the way they think about football, they think about
the NFL or do they just sort of put it out of their heads, and go watch the
game and play fantasy football?

BOB RYAN, SPORTS COLUMNIST: In this fantasy football world we live in, in
this betting world we live in, these are mere peripheral concerns. The
hard-core football fan is not remotely interested in the morality play.
He`s interested in -- and mostly he, interested in the competition and the
totality, the love of the game itself, and love all the peripheral aspects
of it. I just mentioned, the fantasies, which is a world unto itself. An
incredible billion, multi-billion dollar business, etc. This - the other
stuff is just irrelevant. Safety? What? Who cares! I mean -- that, you
know, a few, you know, mothers -- I`ve always said the mothers of America
could shut football down tomorrow. And maybe they should, but until that
happens, life will go on very happily.

And I am just sort of amused by the idea that it takes a specific person to
oversee this whole enterprise. It`s Roger Goodell. It could be a thousand
other people because it`s self-perpetuating.

KORNACKI: Well, so, Joy, I guess that -- Bob saying there, also raises the
question, I mean we played the PSA, the NFL is running, they`ve done a lot
of, you know, sort of publicity, sort of anti-domestic violence and all of
that. But do you have a sense of has anything meaningful changed in terms
of how the league looks at this? How the culture of the league thinks
about this, how cases like this will be handled in the future? Do you think
this has all produced within the league something positive, something
valuable?

REID: You know, just for a second, I`m going to channel my inter -- just
for a little bit, and I`m going to - couch is somebody who grew up bathed
in the sport of football. I grew up in Denver, Colorado, where it was God,
family and football, not necessarily in that order. But I think that what
happened this year has exposed the NFL for what it is, which is essentially
a group of plutocrat owners who are fielding basically a squad of prized
race horses. And they don`t care what the race horses do at home. They`re
highly paid, basically gladiators, who if they`re beating up their wives,
they don`t care about that. The owners just care about the money that
these guys make. There`s a reason why there are bigger penalties for
putting chemicals into your body which destroys the product that these
owners are selling than there is for doing something that would be criminal
if they were just an ordinary citizen. And I think the fact that there is
no morality within the confines of the NFL -- they don`t care about that.
They have to make the PSA`s as a marketing ploy, but I think the idea that
the NFL really does care about the lives of these players outside of the
field, outside of the field when they`re not making money for the owners, I
think has been exposed as a big lie. I think it`s going to be difficult to
change that. But as the other guests have said, the actual end users of
this product don`t care. This is entertainment. These are gladiators.

KORNACKI: Well, as you said, I mean the money that the league has made,
the money a lot of these teams have made under Goodell. In the year since
Goodell took over, I think about, you know, seven, eight years ago it is
staggering. Just as his salary is $44 million. And there was an
interesting interview this weekend, I want to put this up on the screen.
In GK, with Paul Tagliabue, Paul Tagliabue was the predecessor of Roger
Goodell as a commissioner. Really is mentored many ways. Tagliabue saying
in his interview that we have not talked much since I left. It`s been his
decision clearly there`s a chill in their relationship. Tagliabue also
said in this interview that he suggested there was a perception that
Goodell had created that money was the be all and end all, of what his
duties as commissioner were all about. Mike Freeman, to extent that is --
Tagliabue says is accurate, how has that affected the players relationship
with the league?

FREEMAN: Well, the players in the commission right now, Steven, have no
relationship. It`s the most antagonistic I`ve ever seen in my 25, 26 years
of covering sports and covering NFL. I have never seen hatred, and that`s
the word, it`s hatred, never seen hatred between the players union and the
commissioner as deep, as steep as this. Even in some ways during the
strike years which were really nasty and ugly. Right now they don`t have a
relationship. You saw here this week, Richard Sherman came out and
basically just punked Goodell and said his relationship with Robert Kraft,
the owner of the Patriots, champions everything, and that`s why they won`t
find any - this investigation will lead to nothing, because he`s so close
with Goodell is with Kraft, the players right now really dislike Goodell.
And that`s one of the keys here, is if the league -- as much money as the
league is making, and Bob Ryan is right and Joy Reid are right about how
some owners view the players, but that can`t stay that way forever. They
are going to need the players. And that relationship has to be mended if
this league is going to keep continuing to making this kind of money that
are making now.

KORNACKI: And actually, and Bob -- and I said it happened on the show. I
didn`t want to spend too much time on the Deflate-gate, but I do want to
ask you this, in terms of what Mike was just talking there about the
relationship between Kraft and Goodell. And there`s been a lot of sort of
Patriots, Patriots haters out there saying, you know, this is going to mean
it will - it will be easy on the Patriots in this situation.

Another suggestions, though, that in light of all the sort of bad PR the
NFL has received this year for the Ray Rice thing, and for Adrian Peterson,
for whatever else, that when it comes to this matter right now, Goodell
might see this as an opportunity to really make a definite statement to
come down hard. Do you think the -- everything that`s happened in the NFL
this year, and -- if it`s taken in the press, will affect how Goodell
approaches this.

RYAN: My opinion has been from the beginning that the Patriots are under
extra scrutiny for a very good reason, so people are very suspicious of
them. So I think it has -- it`s incumbent upon him to launch a highly
detailed investigation. And probably to err -- in his eyes erring on the
side of caution, punishing the Patriots disproportionately harder than he
would any other team, if, in fact, they determined that Patriots are at
fault and it was not like an act of nature that caused this. But if you --
by the way, to Richard Sherman`s statement, which was -- and just -- just
Sherman, and that I think that had any other team won -- AFC team won the
game, that it`s very possible that Mr. Goodell would have gone to and
joined the celebration at the home of that owner as well. I really think
he read a lot more into that situation than it really was.

KORNACKI: Yeah, and sometimes saying things could be a motivating force,
too, for a team. (INAUDIBLE). But Joy Reid, the longer term future for
football, the thing we didn`t get into there, was concussions. And I just
noticed watching the game this year and watching the game the last few
years, it`s the sort of thing where in years past there would be a big hit.
And everybody would kind of get excited about it and say what a big play.
And now everybody, myself and everybody I watch with winces. Every time --
there has been a sort of change in our instincts and how we watch and how
we think about it. And I always think about the younger generation of
kids. Like, you know, if I had a 12-year-old, would I want that kid
playing football or would I think if something is going to happen,
concussion, we don`t want that. The longer term future of football, what
do you think of that?

REID: Yeah, and my husband and I were very reluctant to let -- our sons
played soccer when we were in Florida, very reluctant, especially my
husband, to allow them to play football. I mean and think about the fact
that NFL players have the shortest careers of any of the major sports
league when you look at basketball versus baseball. They can`t like
baseball players play on into almost 50, these guys break their bodies
apart between arthritis, head injuries, just the pain and suffering of a
post NFL player. And what`s done to their bodies in playing this game.
Even though yes, they are highly compensated. People are like -- feeling
sorry for rich people. But at the end of the day, these guys are
destroying themselves physically for our entertainment. And I think you
are going to see a lot of parents, a lot of moms and dads wondering whether
this is worth it.

Because when you talk about the kids that are playing, the same lack of
morality and the same lack of caring about them as human beings applies all
the way down to pewee football. Allowing kids to go head first into the
line when they say- they are playing as linemen, allowing kids to take the
same physical risks, and risk the same physical pain, the same head
injuries that adults are, this is getting younger and younger and younger.
And I think a lot of parents are really rethinking it. Fans, not
rethinking it. And I think that`s really the moral dilemma that I think we
all have as people who love the game.

KORNACKI: Right, all the concerns raised, as we say, more money than ever,
ratings better than ever.

REID: Yes.

KORNACKI: So, those are the two bottom line indicators. Any way, I want
to thank Bob Ryan. He is going to stick around. We`ll see you a little
bit later in the show. Mike Freeman for "Bleach Report," thank you. Enjoy
the game out there. We are very jealous of you, and MSNBC`s Joy Reid,
thank you. You host "The Reid Report" here on MSNBC.

Still ahead this hour, the very important question of what kind of hoodie
Bill Belichick will be wearing today. We`ll tell you what that means, but
first, military seems ready to decide what to do about Sergeant Bowe
Bergdahl. And that`s next.

(cb)

KORNACKI: The Japanese prime minister says this morning that he feels
"indignation" over the apparent execution of a second Japanese man by ISIS.
He`s vowing that Japan will not give in to terrorism. An online video
released yesterday purports to show the beheading of Japanese journalist
Kenji Goto. Here in Washington, the White House is confirming that Goto is
dead, but is not confirming the authenticity of the video itself.
President Obama expressing his own condemnation in a statement this morning
as well as solidarity with the people of Japan adding that the U.S. will
continue to take decisive action against the terror group. At times like
this we like to turn to Colonel Jack Jacobs, MSNBC military analyst and a
Medal of Honor recipient. So, Colonel, this was an unusual situation.
There was sort of a three-way thing involved here. So, ISIS had this
Japanese photographer and wanted from Jordan the release of an extremist.
Jordan was -- and Jordan, a downed Jordanian pilot who ISIS had. So,
apparently, the deal supposedly was everybody gets their people back. And
it dissolved. Don`t we know exactly how that happened?

COL. JACOB JACOBS, MILITARY ANALYST: Well, one of the reasons it didn`t
happen is that Jordan wanted the proof of life for the pilot. And it was
not forthcoming. And they weren`t going to do any further negotiations and
figure out what else they were going to get if there was going to be money
involved. All the details of any exchange until there was a proof of life.
And ISIS didn`t provide it, and so I think thing has broke down on that
case.

KORNACKI: And so, you know, we`ve seen stories of European countries that
apparently do pay these ransoms that ISIS demands, they have gotten people
out. Of course, here in the United States we have the strict policy of
don`t pay the ransom. The families, don`t pay the ransom. Is there a
realistic way to get any of these people out? Because we keep seeing these
innocent people who are trapped over there. And we say, is there any way
to get them out. Is there?

JACOBS: No. I mean there`s not any real way that you can guarantee you
are going to be able to get people out who get captured by ISIS, no matter
what you do. Indeed, there`s an argument that says that if you pay
ransoms, if you exchange prisoners, that you are almost going to guarantee
that you are going to lose more people because they are going to get
captured. The people we exchanged for Bowe Bergdahl, for example, at least
one of them has now contacted al Qaeda. And there are others we released
from Guantanamo, for example, whom we subsequently killed on the
battlefield or captured again. No, there`s no - There`s no way that you
are going to be able to guarantee you are going to get your people back.
And in any case, the expectation of ISIS is not necessarily make any
exchanges any way. They`re a terror organization, and their objective is
to control areas, in which they go into, not necessarily make any points or
reach any kind of consensus with countries who -- of whom, from which they
have prisoners. So, that`s not going to work. Either paying ransom or
anything else.

KORNACKI: Right. And you mentioned Bowe Bergdahl, so that was in the news
sort of early last year. Now back in the news because we have reports, NBC
reports that a decision is imminent now to charge him with desertion.
That`s not official, but that`s what the reporting suggests that we are
heading in that direction. Do you think that`s appropriate in his case?
That he be charged formally with desertion?

JACOBS: Oh, yes. I mean I think -- look, there`s an investigation that`s
convened by the court-martial convening authority. A general officer
investigates it. Makes a recommendation to the court-martial convening
authority. Based on the investigation, whether or not somebody ought to be
charged. After that, there`s the military grand jury procedure and article
32 investigation that goes into the details. But in this particular case,
there`s plenty of evidence that indicates he should be charged with this.

KORNACKI: What do you think - if he`s charged and if he`s found guilty
what do you think the punishment should be for what he did?

JACOBS: It all depends on what the facts really are. You know, you have -
- to prove desertion, you have to prove intent to stay away. And
ostensibly, if he`s charged with that, they have enough evidence to
indicate that that`s worth bringing it to trial, in theory the penalty for
just being found guilty of desertion is death. It`s not likely in this
case.

KORNACKI: Extreme in this case.

JACOBS: It would be, especially since at least part of the time he was
away because he was captured. If he told people in his unit that he was
leaving to leave permanently, then he has got a real problem. But the
likelihood is that he didn`t say that. That he just -- as a matter of
fact, before all this began, when he was first captured, the time there was
the exchange, there was a lot of talk from his -- people in his unit saying
the guy was a doper. He spent a lot of time wandering off, anyway going to
find hash, buy hash in the local village and so on. So I think that an
extreme penalty is unlikely.

KORNACKI: Also, and you mentioned this a minute ago, but there was a
reporting this week that one of the Taliban five, these people who we
traded to get Bowe Bergdahl back. One of them having communication with
militants, obviously, against the restrictions that were put in place when
the deal was cut. John Kirby, this is the spokesman for the Pentagon was
asked about this on Friday. I`ll play what he said right here.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REAR ADM. JOHN KIRBY, U.S. NAVY: What I can tell you is that we remain
confident, as we were when we sent them there, that the assurances we
received are sufficient enough to help us mitigate any future threat that
these individuals might pose.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KORNACKI: And this was the whole debate back when Bergdahl came back. It
was - do we leave anybody behind? Do we get our people out no matter what
the cost is? Even if the cost is five Taliban going back there, or do we
make some kind of an exception in this case. When you look back to that
debate and you look at this, what do you think?

JACOBS: Well, that`s like I said on the air at the time I thought it was a
rotten deal. And I wasn`t the only one. A lot of people said the same
thing. I think the idea about getting your troops back no matter what it
costs in the military operation, that makes a great deal of sense. And we
followed that dictum for a long, long time. The question about whether or
not you make a deal like this for a guy like Bergdahl, that`s a different
story altogether. And I and lots of other people said at the time that it
was something you should not do.

KORNACKI: Shouldn`t have made the deal.

JACOBS: No, no, it`s a rotten deal. You`re going to exchange a guy like
Bergdahl for five really dangerous people, at least some of whom were going
to wind up going back to kill Americans and - or our allies. It`s a rotten
deal. And, you know, it was a media event, and unfortunately the White
House did not do its homework. I mean they had the family showing up. And
it would appear that they didn`t even know what kind of guy Bergdahl was in
the first place. So, I said at the time and I think everybody --
reasonable people with military experience would agree it was a rotten
deal.

KORNACKI: Yeah, no, it was a very sort of celebratory feel, I remember
that day.

JACOBS: Yeah.

KORNACKI: And then the debate.

JACOBS: For no good reason.

KORNACKI: That the debate sort of kicked in. and people found out a lot
of other things. My thanks, though, to Retired U.S. Army Colonel Jack
Jacobs. I appreciate that.

JACOBS: You bet.

KORNACKI: And I didn`t try to get a Super Bowl prediction out of you.
Neither of you up here. Still ahead .

JACOBS: Seahawks.

KORNACKI: I shouldn`t have gotten that Super Bowl prediction from - How a
smile from Patriots head coach Bill Belichick could make you money. He
doesn`t do it often. And next, haters going to hate. Keep it here.

(cb)

KORNACKI: We`ve all heard the line General Patton made famous, Americans
love a winner. If that were the case, the New England Patriots should be
America`s team. After all the Pats were about to appear in their sixth
Super Bowl in the last 14 years. They`ve won three of those games already.
They`ve won at least ten games a year for the last 12 years, and they have
arguably the best coach and the best quarterback in the NFL with Bill
Belichick and Tom Brady. Instead though the Patriots are, they are
practically the most hated team in the NFL. They finished second to the
Cowboys in a recent poll on which team Americans hate the most. So how
could one of pro sports most celebrated teams also be one of its more
reviled? Maybe it`s the cheating accusations? Spygate eight years ago,
the Deflate-gate thing two weeks ago. Or maybe those accusations are more
of a convenient cajole for all of those fans who already hate the Patriots.
It`s something to taunt New England and its fans with. Or maybe the source
is Bill Belichick, his dour demeanor and one-word press conference answers
probably aren`t that endearing to non-pats.

Or maybe it`s something simpler, maybe it`s just that in sports, Americans
actually don`t love winners. They actually love to hate winners and cheer
to see them lose. They like underdogs. Long-time Bostonian, former sports
columnist with "The Boston Globe" Bob Ryan is back with us, along with Drew
Magary, "GQ" correspondent and columnist with the sport site Dead Spin who
just wrote a column urging people not to root for the Patriots. So, we
thought he would be the perfect person to bring on for this.

Drew, just let me start with you. I`m guessing you`re speaking for about
95 percent of America right here. So, what is the case for hating the
Patriots?

DREW MAGARY, GQ CORRESPONDENT: That`s exactly right. I`m here for 95
percent of Americans, Steve. And, you know, the problem is, in my eyes,
there is a disproportionate amount of media people and writers who happen,
for some reason, to come from New England backgrounds. Every freacking
Patriots fan ends up being a professional writer or broadcaster somehow.
And so what happens is, you know, you have all these people who are Boston
fans, and they grow up being writers, and sportscasters, and stuff like
that, and you went appearing about the Patriots, and the Red Sox, and the
Celtics from them. And not only do Boston people drone on and on about
their teams, but they expect you to care. And so, instead of simply not
caring which is what I usually do, I have grown to actively loathe Boston
sports teams and I root for them to fail.

KORNACKI: It sounds like you`re saying it`s just over exposure.

MAGARY: It`s overexposure but then it`s also the type of overexposure,
because listen, the Patriots could win today and Pats fans would still
complain that the helmet catch was lucky. You know what I mean. Like it`s
enough. Like there is always a bit of triumphant misery to go along with
the winning. Like they could win ten years in a row and they would still
find something to complain about, because they`re from Boston, Boston
people tend to be generally unpleasant.

(LAUGHTER)

KORNACKI: And with Bob Ryan up in Boston, and full disclosure, I`m one of
those born in Massachusetts guys who is in the media right now.

MAGARY: Yes. See? Yeah! You are -- completely unnecessary.

KORNACKI: I`m not miserable. I`m smiling. I`m happy, but Bob Ryan let me
--let me ask you this. I mean what you are hearing from Drew, and I
imagine you hear this from people all over the country, they don`t like the
Patriots, Patriots hating is sort of a big thing right now. How does
Boston handle that? How do they interpret that. What do they think is at
the heart of it? Does everybody say, oh, it`s jealousy?

RYAN: The prevailing opinion here is that it`s just the idea of people
rooting against a proven winner, which is simply not the case. Drew is --
brought this to his antipathy to all Boston teams. And I have to remind -
not remind him, but just prod him one of the reasons people take that
opinion is that in the 21st century, there`s been no more successful city
with eight parades, four other trips to the finals. And we are the only
city in America that can boast of a championship -- to four major sports,
which might remain true well into the 21 century, but in this particular
issue, there was only one reason why everyone hates the Patriots, it`s not
simply because they are good, it`s not a case of hate becuase we`re
beautiful, it`s the coach, OK?

And I have to remind you, that in 2002, when they beat the Rams as an
underdog, they were beloved. Why? Because when they took the field, they
took the field unmasked. They did not have the individual introductions.
America fell in love with them. And they were the toast of America. But
they have not become -- they have now squandered all of that via Spygate,
a, and via the continuing public presence of a dour coach, as you
mentioned. And that is it. They hate Belichick. They don`t hate Brady.
They don`t hate Wilfork. They don`t hate -- they hate Belichick. That`s
what it`s all about.

MAGARY: I don`t know about that, because I think even though Belichick can
be ornery, that`s more of a media issue. The media doesn`t like him --
because he doesn`t have much to say except for this past week for some
magical reason. But you know, when he gets accused of Spygate, and
Deflate-gate, and all that stuff, it`s really a byproduct of the fact that
the team wins a lot. And so, when teams start winning a lot, I naturally
begin to hate them, because my crappy team never wins anything. And so,
this team is hogging.

KORNACKI: Who is your crappy team, by the way? Who is it?

MAGARY: The Vikings. The Vikings are terrible.

KORNACKI: So, now, let me ask you a question, Drew --

Drew .

(CROSSTALK)

MAGARY: But I latch on to anything I can to disprove that team that`s
winning too much because I don`t want them to enjoy the winning. Because
that wouldn`t be fun for me because my team always loses.

RYAN: Why was there no such antipathy towards the steel curtain Steelers
or the 49ers in the Montana?

MAGARY: I don`t like the Steelers. I don`t like the 49ers. I don`t like
any of them. I hate them all.

RYAN: Well, I think.

(CROSSTALK)

RYAN: That`s you. Because most people ..

MAGARY: Yeah.

RYAN: That I have heard never heard a negative word about the 49ers, ever?

MAGARY: Oh, really?

RYAN: Never.

MAGARY: Oh, man, you have got to get out.

RYAN: I get out a lot. I get out a lot. And I`m telling you, that this
is a bunch of poppy cock. No one despised the 49ers the way they despised
the Patriots. And that`s because there was nothing to this like about Bill
(INAUDIBLE). And you`re wrong about Belichick, I`m telling you, I`m
telling you, this is not about the media, it is about the fans. The media
understands them better than the fans. By -- they always - the fans only
see him on Sunday, when they should never appear before in public. By
Thursday or Friday, he`s practically a raconteur. OK. Know that.

(CROSSTALK)

(CROSSTALK)

KORNACKI: Can we say that there is something about sports where we like to
cheer for the underdog? And I think at the end of today`s basketball
tournament every year, and you get those arenas where like 18 are playing
in the same place.

In the 16th seed who no one`s ever heard of shows up, and they take Kansas
down to the wire and 90 percent of the arena is on its feet cheering for
this -- they need the players, they don`t know the coach. All they know
that it`s the little guy, and they want to see the bug guy fall.

MAGARY: Well, the other thing is that Bob thinks that it`s a strictly a
Boston fan thing, which is true. Boston fans are annoying in their own
specific way, but then they take that and they think that that makes them
special and different from other fans which is not true. But somehow it
makes them more annoying than other fans. Does that make sense?

KORNACKI: Bob?

RYAN: I preach this gospel to the people here all the time, Drew. That
you are not enlightened. You are not -- entitled. You not entitled. You
are no better than any other set of fans. In fact, you`re the luckiest set
of fans in America because you have won eight times in this century and you
have won in all four sports. I tell them this, OK? They are not any
better than any other fan, so, OK, they are not. I know that.

MAGARY: But they don`t listen to you. They are like -- give me another .

RYAN: But they don`t even listen to you at all.

KORNACKI: But it is .

RYAN: Well, I just -- with the thing about it that`s important here on
this particular issue, Drew, is this. It`s that fans here have never come
to grips with Spygate. And don`t understand that what the ramifications
were in the outside world. They don`t get it. They don`t know that it`s a
stain that will never go away. They don`t know that if the Patriots win
today, people will not give these great players their full credit because
they will still hate the Patriots and assume something was amiss and they
will always hate Belichick. That what`s happening. The Spygate will never
go away. No one here wants to accept that.

KORNACKI: Let me just say, as -- and I`m in New York now, but as a kid who
grew up in the `80s and `90s with the Boston sports teams, we will also
never forget when the Patriots were terrible. Nobody cared, and nobody
talked about it.

(CROSSTALK)

MAGARY: I don`t want to hear that.

KORNACKI: When I was a kid, I could not watch a Patriots game on
television because Sullivan stadium was half full and it was blacked out in
the area. So, there`s a lot of Patriots fans who say we went through rod,
rust, and seriously, and all that, and you know what, if we got to be the
enemy, we deserve, we`ll take it. Anyway ..

MAGARY: You don`t get --

KORNACKI: Drew Magary, Bob Ryan, this was a really fun discussion. I
really enjoyed it. Thanks you for joining us. I`m sorry, we`re out of
time. I would love to keep going with this.

Anyway, still ahead, how to make some extra money at your Super Bowl party
tonight, plus the latest from Chicago where a potential blizzard bears down
on the city. Stay with us for all of the info you need about that.

(cb)

KORNACKI: Right now we`re tracking that winter storm as it moves through
the Midwest towards the northeast. 23 states now are under winter weather
alerts. Storm could affect as many as 65 million Americans. It`s already
created a travel nightmare with flight cancellations and delays. NBC`s
Kevin Tibbles is live in Chicago. Chicago is now under a blizzard warning.
Kevin, tell us what you`re seeing right now and what you`re expecting.

KEVIN TIBBLES, NBC CORRESPONDENT: Well, first off, I don`t need you to be
telling me we`re under a blizzard warning right now. I`ll tell you that
much because we`re standing in it. I can give you sort of Kevin`s
unscientific weather report here.

And that is that the winds are blowing about 780 million miles an hour.
The snow is blowing sideways. At this degree I understand that 750,000
flights have been canceled here at O`Hare Airport. And I can also tell you
that it`s pretty darn miserable out here. Can you see Lake Michigan behind
me? It looks like a gigantic slushy this morning, and this thing is just
getting underway. We understand that between now and midnight or
overnight, we are going to have about a foot to 15 inches of snow. Perfect
for nestling up in front of the fireplace and watching the big game this
afternoon. That`s the advice from me out here this morning.

KORNACKI: Wow, Kevin Tibbles, from my vantage point on this shot, it looks
like you`re on an iceberg in the Arctic circle. That`s a scary-looking
place here.

TIBBLES: I think -- I actually think that`s exactly where I am. The only
thing is that the people who actually live in the Arctic are smart enough
to stay indoors on a day like today. So, I got the place pretty much to
myself. Although I have to tell you, there are actually joggers out here
this morning running around. And, you know, go figure.

KORNACKI: They are the most dedicated athletes. Rain, snow, sleet,
blizzard. Anyway my thanks to NBC`s Kevin Tibbles live for us in Chicago.

And still ahead, the role of luck, getting lucky and making money. That`s
next.

(cb)

KORNACKI: All right, we are over at the big board, here with me is Mike
Pesca, host of Slate`s podcast the Gist. And Mike has a lot of knowledge
and expertise on the area we want to talk about right now. This is
something, the NFL doesn`t necessarily like people talking about, but it`s
a huge part of the game today, it`s a huge part of football, it`s a pretty
big part of the economy when you come to think of it, and that is gambling.
A lot of money, Mike, are going to be wagered in Las Vegas at these off-
shore casinos. People can get to them online with their phones or
computers. What are we talking about here in terms of just the amount of
money that`s going to be gambled today?

PESCA: Well, you will see figures out there. But I don`t believe any of
them. Because I think for all the off-shore and all the Vegas, people
still are making more illegal bets than anything else. So, yeah, in the
bill -- it`s in order of .

KORNACKI: Like the ....

(CROSSTALK)

PESCA: The bookie down the street? The bookie you might still be quasi-
connected with the mafia. That still goes on. And you said the NFL
doesn`t like talking about it. I think they don`t acknowledge that they
don`t like talking about it, but they know that it is one of the drivers of
their sport. Unlike, however, the NCAA tournament, which I think is pretty
much now a gambling enterprise, wrapped up in the sporting event, people
love football. And that`s why they want to bet on football rather than the
other way around. But man, do they love to bet on football.

KORNACKI: So it`s more like they`re already fans.

PESCA: They are fans, and they have opinions about these things. And they
really wanted to put money on how many rushing guards, because they already
have an idea of how many rushing guards, as opposed to some other sporting
events, like the NCAA tournament where it`s like Gonzaga, I have no idea.
But I`m still at my bracket. Yeah.

KORNACKI: Then, of course, it`s always the principle of the more you know,
the worse you do.

PESCA: Oh, that`s true. And you are taking advantage and remember, the
guys setting the odds always know more than you. Always.

KORNACKI: Also, with that in mind, let`s take you through some of the
ways, I guess this is our money-making segment or money losing segment.
But let`s take you through how this works, some of the bets you could be
making today. And people are making today. Actually, this, first of all,
we are going to start - this is from the start of the season. At the very
beginning of the season, you could go out to one of these casinos, only
sports books and you could say I bet the Denver Broncos are going to win
the Super Bowl. The start of the season, Denver and San Francisco you can
see. These were the two teams that people thought were going to win it.
6/1, I guess it`s basically bet $100, you win 600.

PESCA: Yes. But the Seattle and New England odds, as you see there, that
was preseason. They both started the season slow. And by midseason,
Seattle was looking bad. You could have gotten longer odds on them at that
point. They were less likely to win the Super Bowl, according to Las Vegas
in week eight than they were before week one.

KORNACKI: So, this is like -- this is like almost the stock market. You
are trying to find the team, you know, on the two-game losing streak, and
then you- win of Super Bowl.

PESCA: Yeah. Except the stock market is not priced to lose. So, what
they have is, if you make bets on all the teams and whoever wins, you are
still going to lose a ton of money.

KORNACKI: Right.

PESCA: But 6/1 is not the true odds. The stock market will be closer to
the true odds.

KORNACKI: And of course, the Jacksonville, this was the longest odds on
the board. If you put a dollar on them, you would have won 200. But they
were terrible.

PESCA: Every year since .

(CROSSTALK)

PESCA: Put a dollar on the .

KORNACKI: Here`s the basic one, though.

PESCA: Yeah.

KORNACKI: This is the point spread for tonight`s game. So, quick primer,
what is the point spread, how that works.

PESCA: Point spread is the different, this is invented for football. It`s
a way to make up the difference between the bad team and the good team or
the worst team and the good team. Pick `em means they don`t think either
team is better than the other. In the history of the Super Bowl, all the
advanced computer simulations that I`ve looked at, these are the closest
it`s ever been. Now, I think a lot of places have New England as a one-
point favorite. But that`s such a -- between one and pick `em, is a much,
pick `em mean there`s is no point spread on this game. Everything I said
about point spread, forget it. Just pick a team straight up.

KORNACKI: Yes, because and we were looking around. The place we decided
to use -- pick them this morning you are right. There are a few who`d say
the Patriots by a point. We found one that said, Patriots by two points.
But I guess that`s part of the thing as you can shop around a little bit in
trying to .

PESCA: Yes, but the one that says Patriots by two points, you might have
to pay a little bit more to get that. In other word, you`re paying ten
percent which is called the Vig. To win $100, you have to bet 110, the two
point spread, you maybe -- you have to bet 115 or 120 to get those two-
points.

KORNACKI: OK, let`s look at another one that a lot of people bet now.
This is call the over under, 47 and ahalf. What are we looking at here?

PESCA: Total number of points scored combined by both teams. I think that
betters like to bet the favorite. There was no favorite. But that is also
like to bet the over. So this might be a little high especially when you
take into account the history of the Patriots and the Super Bowl. They
often ome in with great offenses and then underperform. And also, Seattle
just has the best defense.

KORNACKI: So you say, Mike Pesca, the tout says take the under?

PESCA: What I`m saying is to be fair and cautious, bet the mortgage, bet
the kids college money, MSNBC endorsed.

KORNACKI: 50 percent chance you`ll win.

(LAUGHTER)

KORNACKI: And let`s take a quick look. You can actually bet the coin
toss.

PESCA: And this is why the gamblers will always win. You have to bet $105
to win $100 on heads. Do you know heads was on this incredible winning
streak? And I think the Super Bowl coin, it`s not like a regular coin.
The mint has nothing to do with it. I think it`s really weirdly weighted.
And I`ve held Super Bowl coins. And it does seem like the heads -- it`s
just --has a little - is more concave. I would say. So, yeah, I would
definitely bet heads. Again, MSNBC endorsed.

(LAUGHTER)

PESCA: Bet college money.

KORNACKI: We`ll have a 1-900 number set up at the end of this, by the way.
You want the rest of these pics. But quickly, we should say -- so we start
talking about like betting the coin toss. These are called prop bets. In
the Super Bowl, because it`s this game where just everybody in the country
is watching. They come up with these random bets that you can only bet for
this game.

PESCA: Right. So, some of the bets, the ones that are actually based on
chance, like this and like things on the field, Las Vegas will book that.
But now it`s a proliferation of online -- that`s where we are going to say,
there`s crazy stuff. Like how much will the Knicks score in the first
quarter versus how many total points will Seattle score in the game?
Number of references to, you know, Katy Perry`s hairstyle and stuff like
that.

KORNACKI: I would take those Seahawks in that Knicks comparison. But we
have -- so, like you are saying, we have a bunch of these really funny,
kind of crazy, random prop bets, some pretty funny stuff here, and we`ll --
Katy Perry, and we are going to show them to you and get Mike`s take on
them when we come back.

(cb)

KORNACKI: All right, we`re back at the big board with Mike Pesca talking
about these prop bets, these are these crazy, only on Super Bowl Sunday
bets that you can go make, try to make some money on. So, we`re going to
go through some of the funnier ones. When you get Mike Pesca`s take on
them. So, here is one. This is something you can bet on, actually. How
many times will the word "deflated balls" be said during the game tonight?
So, you are watching the broadcast. How many times will that be said? And
they have set the over/under at three. So Mike, what`s a good bet here?
Over or under?

PESCA: Well, remember, it has to be deflated, it can`t be a reference to
PSI, or even underinflated. So, that`s a little wrinkle. Al Michaels is I
think the best announcer in the sport. He has to set the scene. You have
to say it once or twice. And he`s a funny guy. I think he`s going to make
a joke. And because the over/under is three, if it only hits three, you
win your money back so I`d take the over.

KORNACKI: You take the over -- OK, let`s see what else we`ve got here.
Will Bill Belichick smile during the game on camera?

PESCA: No, I wish the word "smile" were in quotes. Because I could see
him grimacing, I could see him giving a clenched teeth upturn of the lips.

KORNACKI: How do you define a smile?

PESCA: It`s with the eyes. That`s a real smile, but rarely do we see
Belichick smile.

KORNACKI: I mean .

PESCA: It`s hard with all the, you know, dark side of the force working
within him.

KORNACKI: All right, let`s see what else we`ve got here. Bill Belichick
hoodie top. He`s been known to cut them off. I say he`s going to cut them
off, right?

PESCA: Yeah, Glendale, Arizona, I hear they want to keep the roof open.
That`s usually a good predictor for half sleeve.

KORNACKI: All right. And now we`ve got will it be mentioned during the
game that Pete Carroll was the last head coach of the Patriots? I say
absolutely.

PESCA: How could you not, again? And this is during the game, of course.
There are 70,000 hours of pregame and it`s going to be mentioned 70,000
times, but I think Michaels will do it.

KORNACKI: All right, now it gets a little funky. Which song will Katy
Perry perform first at halftime? You look at this list. What do you say?

PESCA: OK, I`ve done a lot of research on this. I`m incorporating
elements of technology, history and musicology. I`ve looked over the last
first songs at halftime for the last four years. So you have I`ve got a
feeling, you have Vogue, You have the Beyonce song -- bad girls, you have
Bruno Mars last year. All were in major key tonality. Actually, last year
was D-minor key. So, I took that into account.

Now what I did was I programmed my Pandora with all of those songs, right,
heaven is locked, all four of those songs and then Katy Perry as a whole on
the play list to see what the Pandora algorythm would pop out. Fire work.
Fire work is a major, Fire work is major key tonality.

Also, all the other songs have a -- o piano vamp, to begin. Firework has .

KORNACKI: Firework.

And look at these numbers. You bet $100, you win 225.

PESCA: Don`t bet 100, Steve, again, we`re talking mortgage, we are talking
kids college, Firework. Also, it`s either going to start or end the show.
We can either end with firework of start with firework. I think she needs
to gain credibility with the football fans. I mean the outfit goes far,
but she has to show we`re here to play, come out a little smash mouth,
punch him in the face, play action, go for the bomb on first down.
"Firework" is your pick. Book it.

KORNACKI: "Firework". There it is. "Firework". He wants the under and
take heads on the coin toss. There it is, folks. You buy a new house next
week if you listen to Mike Pesca. I want to thank you for taking us
through all of that. Thank you, Mike Pesca, for joining us this morning.
Thank you for getting up with us this morning. We are going to be back
here next weekend -- Saturday, Sunday, 8 a.m. Eastern time. I think we all
know where I`m going to be tonight, where we all are going to be tonight.
We are going to be watching the big game. It starts at 6:30. You can
catch it on NBC. But first, stick around for Melissa Harris-Perry, she has
got a big special Super Bowl themed show herself and that starts next.
Have a great week.




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