The number of personal computers worldwide is expected to double to about 1.3 billion by 2010, driven by explosive growth in emerging markets such as China, Russia and India, according to a report released on Tuesday by Forrester Research Inc.
China is expected to lead the growth, with 178 million new PC users by 2010, Forrester, a technology research firm, said in a statement.
Some 566 million new PCs are expected to be in use in emerging markets by 2010, based on a study of adoption rates across 16 emerging markets, Forrester said in a statement. The 575 million PCs currently in use globally include about 75 million in emerging markets.
Mature markets in the United States, Europe and Asia-Pacific are expected to add 150 million new PCs by 2010, according to the study.
Growth in emerging markets will be driven by low-priced PCs made by local companies, Forrester said.
"Today's products from Western PC vendors won't dominate in those markets in the long term," Simon Yates, a senior analyst for Forrester, said in a statement.
"Instead local PC makers like Lenovo Group in China and Aquarius in Russia that can better tailor the PC form factor, price point and applications to their local markets will ultimately win the market share battle," he said.
Forrester forecast that there will be 80 million new PC users in India by 2010, with an annual growth rate of 37 percent. Indonesia is expected to see 40 percent annual growth, with 40 million new users.
Of the 16 emerging markets included in the study, Mexico is expected to see the deepest PC market penetration, with 46 percent of Mexicans owning a PC by 2010, Forrester said.