CHUCK TODD:
This Sunday, Putin's warning. As the war moves to the East ...
DMYTRO KULEBA:
Mariupol is in a dire situation. To save them we need more weapons.
CHUCK TODD:
And Ukraine sinks a key Russian warship, the U.S. announces a new $800 million weapons package.
NED PRICE:
President Biden has said repeatedly that we don't bluff.
CHUCK TODD:
But Ukraine's President Zelenskyy says his country still needs more.
PRES. VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY:
We need it sooner. We need it now. Is it enough? We don’t think so.
CHUCK TODD:
Russia retaliates and warns the U.S. directly of "unpredictable consequences."
BILL BURNS:
None of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to, to a tactical nuclear weapon.
CHUCK TODD:
What does it all mean for the U.S. and European response?
CHANCELLOR KARL NEHAMMER:
He believes he is winning the war.
CHUCK TODD:
My guest this morning: Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, the very first European leader to sit down with Vladimir Putin since the Russian invasion began. Plus, Covid's new phase.
DR. ASHISH JHA:
The virus is going to be with us for a very long time, probably forever.
CHUCK TODD:
With cases up but hospitalizations still low, what will new Omicron subvariants mean for mask mandates?
MORGAN CHESKY:
You’re ready for the mandate to be over?
WOMAN:
A year ago.
CHUCK TODD:
I'll talk to the administration's new Covid response coordinator, Dr. Ashish Jha. And whose party?
PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
We first have to defeat the RINOs and grandstanders in the primaries.
CHUCK TODD:
Another Trump impeacher announces he is leaving Congress.
REP. FRED UPTON:
Some of the folks here are so beholden to Trump that they don't accept those of us that are willing to stand up.
CHUCK TODD:
I'll sit down with Republican Congressman Fred Upton of Michigan. Joining me for insight and analysis are PBS NewsHour Chief correspondent Amna Nawaz, Politico "Playbook" co-author Eugene Daniels, Matthew Continetti of the American Enterprise Institute and Ruth Marcus, deputy editorial page editor for The Washington Post. Welcome to Sunday. It's Meet the Press.
ANNOUNCER:
From NBC News in Washington, the longest-running show in television history. This is Meet the Press with Chuck Todd.
CHUCK TODD:
Good Sunday morning, happy Easter, and happy Passover. In Kyiv and across the country, between air raid sirens and emergency curfews, Ukrainian Jews gathered with their families this weekend for Passover Seders. Refugees celebrated across Europe having to say, "Next year," in Ukraine. This morning at St. Peter's Square, the Pope said the world is marking an Easter of War, with Ukraine dragged into a cruel and senseless conflict. And there were processions through Lviv this morning as Ukrainians marked Palm Sunday, Orthodox Easter is celebrated next week. But overnight explosions rattled Kyiv and Kharkiv, missile strikes and retaliation after Ukrainian missiles sunk the flagship of Russia's fleet in the Black Sea, a real humiliating loss for the Russians. Now Russia is consolidating its forces in the East, staging attack helicopters at Ukraine's eastern border, and sending new soldiers and artillery for a long campaign. The governor of the Donetsk region says Mariupol has been wiped off the face of the earth by Russian forces. And Russia is warning of unpredictable consequences, directly to the United States through diplomatic channels, if the United States and NATO continue to arm Ukraine. What is that a pretext for? All of this after the United States announced a new $800 million aid package that includes helicopters, Javelin missiles, and for the first time, much heavier artillery. But President Zelenskyy is still asking for more. In fact, he said this: "When some leaders ask me what weapons I need, I need a moment to calm myself, because I already told them the week before. It's Groundhog Day." NBC News foreign correspondent Matt Bradley is in Bucha this morning, and Matt, we thought this region was somewhat safe and then overnight cruise missiles hit Kyiv. What have you seen? What have you heard?
MATT BRADLEY:
Yeah, I mean, we're talking about cruise missiles that are landing outside of the capital city, and, you know, this city still is kind of lurching back to life despite some glimpses of the fighting still going on. The mayor of Kyiv just sort of shortened the curfew that had been in place for several weeks by a couple of hours, just as an indicator that things are kind of getting back to normal despite constantly hearing air raid sirens and the continued shelling outside the city. I'm outside of Kyiv right now, and as you can see, they're cleaning things up. I'm in something of a graveyard myself, but this one is for vehicles. If you can see just over my right shoulder here, Chuck, these are some of the Russian tanks that were recovered from the battlefield here in Bucha, totally burned out. But in front of me here are some of these civilian cars, the rest of these vehicles are for civilians. And, you know, a lot of this – you're seeing signs of, you know, surrender. This is a white flag, and we're seeing this over, and over, and over again, Chuck: white flags tied to cars that have been riddled with bullet holes, and in this case, it looks like shrapnel holes. Something – a large munition blew up right here and clearly sprayed this car with shrapnel. This handwritten sign right here, it says, "ditey," that means "children," and we're seeing the same thing on this car here. A lot of these vehicles are going to be figuring into investigations into war crimes in the coming weeks and months. Chuck.
CHUCK TODD:
An important crime scene that Matt Bradley is at right now. Matt, thank you. This week, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer became the first European leader to sit down in person with Vladimir Putin since the Russian invasion began. Austria is one of six E.U. countries that are not in NATO, and the country is facing questions about the official neutrality it has maintained since the second World War. Earlier, I spoke with the chancellor and asked him about that Putin visit.
CHUCK TODD:
When you – you decided to visit Bucha before you went to the Kremlin. And you had said you wanted to be a firsthand witness and confront Mr. Putin by what you saw. Tell me what you told him.
CHANCELLOR KARL NEHAMMER:
Well, you know, I took the decision to visit first Ukraine, and to meet President Zelenskyy, the prime minister, the defense minister, and the vice prime minister. And they showed us all the Bucha. And we saw the war crimes there. An Orthodox priest told us Russian soldiers shot the civilians. And after the trip to the Ukraine, I did the trip to Moscow to confront President Putin with what I saw. You know, it was not a friendly conversation. It was a frank and tough conversation. And I told him what I saw. I saw the war crimes. I saw the massive loss of the Russian army. And I told him that there is a need for humanitarian corridors for cities like Mariupol or Kharkiv, for example. Civilians need water. And we have to take care of the wounded there.
CHUCK TODD:
And what was his reaction? You accused him of his soldiers, of committing war crimes. What was his reaction?
CHANCELLOR KARL NEHAMMER:
He told me that he will cooperate with an international investigation, on one hand. And on the other hand, he told me that he doesn't trust the Western world. So this will be the problem now in the future. I think international trust as the United Nations, an international investigation is necessary. And so it was a tough discussion between each other. But I tried to convince him that, for example, the former Yugoslavian war showed us that international investigation is useful to prosecute the war criminals.
CHUCK TODD:
You came away pretty pessimistic. Why?
CHANCELLOR KARL NEHAMMER:
You know, we all can see that there is the preparation of a massive battle in the Donbas region. The Ukrainian side is prepared for that. The Russians prepare for that. And we will see many losses of human lives there. And so this is the reason why I'm pessimistic, on the one hand. On the other hand, both sides, President Zelenskyy — I talked with President Zelenskyy about the trip to Moscow. And both sides, President Zelenskyy and President Putin mentioned the Istanbul peace talks. And maybe we have a little chance there for peace. And also informed about that, the president of Turkey, President Erdoğan.
CHUCK TODD:
Right. Do you get the sense that Vladimir Putin is viewing reality and what's happening in Ukraine, or is he getting a dressed up picture of the war?
CHANCELLOR KARL NEHAMMER:
No. I think he is now in his own war logic, you know. He thinks the war is necessary for security guarantees for the Russian Federation. He doesn't trust the international community. He blames Ukrainians for genocides in the Donbas region. So while he is now in his world, but I think he knows what is going on now in Ukraine.
CHUCK TODD:
When you heard our CIA director talk publicly about the concerns that when Putin is cornered, he might do something like use a tactical nuclear weapon, the person you sat down with, do you think that's a person that might use a nuclear weapon?
CHANCELLOR KARL NEHAMMER:
That's a tough question. I think he knows that he has this weapon. And he knows the threat of this weapon. So I don't know if he'd really use it. But he knows that he can threaten the world with these weapons.
CHUCK TODD:
Does he believe he's winning the war or losing the war?
CHANCELLOR KARL NEHAMMER:
No, I think he believes he is winning the war.
CHUCK TODD:
Did he give a rationale? I mean, did he explain what makes it seem as if things are going better than what it looks like to the rest of us?
CHANCELLOR KARL NEHAMMER:
No. I couldn't say that. You know, he sent me clear messages about his concerns. But I think what is necessary is to confront him all the time with that which is going on in Ukraine. I think this is necessary. You know, at the end of our talks, he told me, in German, it's better the war ends earlier than later. So I think he knows exactly what's going on now.
CHUCK TODD:
I want to talk about additional punishments by the European Union, of which Austria's a member of. You have said you want sanctions that punish Russia and don't punish Europeans. Obviously this has to do with the oil and gas issue. You're very reliant on Russian gas. How quickly could Austria cut itself off from Russia without having an economic catastrophe?
CHANCELLOR KARL NEHAMMER:
I mean, we do it already. But it will take time because our dependency on Russian gas is 80 percent. It's a similar situation to the Republic of Germany. And our industry and our private households need the gas. So now we try everything to get independent. But it is not possible today, tomorrow. But maybe in a few years, we are independent from Russian gas.
CHUCK TODD:
Austria's neutrality, it's written into your constitution. Obviously as a member of the E.U., you have some protections of NATO nations if something were to happen to you. Given what you've seen the Russians do in Ukraine, I'm guessing it's hard for you to be neutral in this war. You're against this war. Do you feel the need to want to help Ukraine more?
CHANCELLOR KARL NEHAMMER:
Well, you know, first of all, the Austrian neutrality is deeply rooted in the Austrian history. So in Austria, there's no discussion about the neutrality. But we are neutral in a military way. We are not neutral if we see that we have to help to show solidarity to help. And that, we do.
CHUCK TODD:
Would you like to see Ukraine become a member of the E.U.? Would you support that?
CHANCELLOR KARL NEHAMMER:
Well, I say – I said it also to President Zelenskyy and to the prime minister, I think the first step is that Ukraine needs fast and tough help, a new plan how to rebuild Ukraine with the United States, with the United Kingdom, with the European Union. And afterwards, this is finished, there can be strong talks about membership in the European Union. But first thing's first. And first we have to help to rebuild Ukraine.
CHUCK TODD:
Karl Nehammer, the Chancellor of Austria, really appreciate you taking a few minutes during this holiday weekend to talk with us. Thank you, sir.
CHANCELLOR KARL NEHAMMER:
Thank you.
CHUCK TODD:
We're going to discuss the Ukraine situation more a bit later in the show. But now we turn to the Covid-19 pandemic. It's entering a new phase, driven by fear, uncertainty, and apathy. In Europe and in New York, new highly transmissible versions of the Omicron variant are on the rise. Philadelphia announced it is reinstating an indoor mask mandate. And the CDC announced masks will continue to be required on commercial flights until at least May 3. But hospitalizations are at their lowest point since the pandemic began. Just 1,464 new daily hospital admissions this week, compared to a seven-day average of more than 21,000 in January. Cases have ticked up across the United States over the past week. Take a look at where they were in January. They were at more than 800,000. So this is a different picture right now. Cross the country though, differences in how states test are actually raising questions about whether case counts are an accurate metric. Just in this last week, California tested more than 1,400 people out of every 100,000. New Jersey tested just 47 out of every 100,000. So joining me now is the new White House Covid-19 response coordinator, Dr. Ashish Jha. Dr. Jha, welcome to Meet the Press, sir.
DR. ASHISH JHA:
Good morning. Thanks for having me here, Chuck.
CHUCK TODD:
Yeah. I'm no longer asking you opinions. I'm asking you about policy here. So let me start with the current state of the pandemic. Are we in the middle of a new surge?
DR. ASHISH JHA:
Yeah, so first of all, as you pointed out, Chuck, really important to take that bigger picture perspective. We are in a much, much better place than we have been for the last two years. Certainly, way better than we were in January, right? And that's really good. Cases are ticking up. And we're going to want to watch this carefully. It's being driven primarily by BA.2, this highly contagious variant of Omicron. You know, so far, as you said, hospitalizations are largely flat, maybe inching up a little in a few places. We're going to have to pay very close attention to this and see where this goes.
CHUCK TODD:
Are you safe from these sub-variants if you've been vaccinated?
DR. ASHISH JHA:
Yeah. The good news is our vaccines are holding up really well against BA.2, against all of the Omicron variants, especially if you've been boosted. So the key here is you've got to have the initial two shots, and then you've got to have a booster. That's what's really protecting people at this moment.
CHUCK TODD:
So let me ask specifically about the Philadelphia decision. And I know you believe, look, local officials should make local decisions. I get all that. But are they using the right metric? Is the case count the correct metric? I mean, I just showed you right across the way from Philadelphia in New Jersey, you know, we don't have an accurate picture of the case count in New Jersey. Does Philadelphia? And did they have an accurate enough one to make a decision like this?
DR. ASHISH JHA:
Yeah, it's a great question. So if you look at the CDC guidance, and by the way, something I've been enormously supportive of well before I came into my current role, the CDC guidance says basically three things should go into these types of decisions. Case count is certainly one of them, hospitalization level is another, and then hospital capacity is a third. You should be using all of those. That said, I think – so, that's a good framework for local officials. That said, you know, local officials do have a lot of local knowledge of where is it spreading, in which communities. They're using other types of data. So I have been really supportive of local people making – local leaders making local decisions, mayors and governors. And I continue to be supportive. I think that's the right way to go.
CHUCK TODD:
Are you concerned though if you do something like this based on a case count, not on hospitalizations, that, as I believe one of the doctors that The Washington Post regularly has as a columnist, Dr. Wen, I think said, you risk a crying wolf situation?
DR. ASHISH JHA:
Yeah. Look, you know, how you communicate these kinds of decisions to your community is an enormous challenge that all local and federal leaders face, right? That is always important. And the question is, are the leaders in Philadelphia and other cities making decisions based on what they think is in the best interests of people there? I think they are. I think in general, that's what most of our political leaders are doing. They're trying to get this right. And they've got to figure out how to communicate that in a way that people understand. When cases are going up, you know, they're going to look at their own local communities, figure out where is it spreading, and make those decisions. And I don't think it's important – I don’t think it’s useful for those of us sitting in Washington to second-guess those decisions.
CHUCK TODD:
Well, speaking of a Washington decision, the federal transportation mask mandate is something that's a Washington decision, whether on airplanes or in other federally funded public transportation. What metric are you looking at for this decision on May 3rd?
DR. ASHISH JHA:
Yeah. So first and foremost, this is a CDC decision, right? And the CDC scientists, what they laid out was they said, "Look, we need 15 more days. And the reason we need 15 more days is that cases are rising. We want to see, is this going to translate into more severe disease, more hospitalizations, more deaths." That's why they asked. I think in 15 days, we'll have a lot more information. And then they are going to make a decision. They're going to make a recommendation based on their assessment of the science.
CHUCK TODD:
So you were an advocate of a vaccine mandate when you were on the other side of this in your private capacity here. Is that something that could be implemented, a vaccine mandate for air travel?
DR. ASHISH JHA:
That's a really good question. I have always believed, and certainly in the early days of the pandemic once vaccines became available, I thought it was very important to get as many Americans vaccinated as quickly as possible. And mandates worked. Mandates do work. We are in a different position now, obviously, with more than 220 million Americans vaccinated, 100 million people boosted. And so we really have to ask ourselves what is the role of mandates moving forward. And we're going to need to assess each of these individual situations differently.
CHUCK TODD:
Would it be easier for the airlines to manage a vaccine mandate than a mask mandate?
DR. ASHISH JHA:
Well, that's a very good question I think ultimately for the airlines. I think the decision that the CDC is facing right now is do we extend that mask mandate moving forward. And that really has to be driven I think by the broader national situation: cases, hospitalizations, deaths, what's happening with the state of the pandemic.
CHUCK TODD:
All right. A couple of vaccine questions. First, we still don't have a vaccine for essentially birth to five. Are we basically not out of the potentially mask mandate world or even voluntary masks, if you will, until we figure out how to get folks under five vaccinated?
DR. ASHISH JHA:
Yeah. Great question. First of all, I think we should let science and evidence drive when we're ready to get kids under five vaccinated. Moderna has put out its press release. They're going to be submitting the full set of data to the FDA, hopefully reasonably soon. I know Pfizer's working on this. So we're going to have a lot more information. I don't think we need to tie that to broader mask mandates. I think these are two separate issues. And I think we should keep them separate.
CHUCK TODD:
The boosters. I'll admit my own doctor seems to have some confusion. Is the CDC recommending it for everybody 50+, or just approving it for 50+, consult your physician?
DR. ASHISH JHA:
Yeah. So first of all, on boosters, let's be very clear on one thing, Chuck, which is everybody needs that third shot, the first booster. Every adult needs one. There is overwhelming evidence that that's the best way to protect yourself, both against infection, but much more importantly against severe disease. On the second booster, on the second booster, the data out of Israel is pretty compelling that people over 60 who got a second booster after – four months after their first booster saw not just a reduction in infections, but a reduction in deaths. So I think that's what really prompted both FDA and CDC.
CHUCK TODD:
So --
DR. ASHISH JHA:
– I have elderly parents.
CHUCK TODD:
– why 60 –
DR. ASHISH JHA:
I have recommended it.
CHUCK TODD:
– and not 50? I mean, I'm just curious. If 60 is where the science is, why did we lower it to 50?
DR. ASHISH JHA:
Well, two sets of things. So the Israeli data is 60 and above. There are a lot of people in their fifties, especially if you have chronic disease, who are at high risk. So in my mind as I read the evidence, people over 60 I think should be getting that booster. Again, that evidence is pretty compelling. Fifty to 59, you're certainly eligible. Depends on your risk profile. That's the place where I think it's really important to talk to your doctor.
CHUCK TODD:
Dr. Ashish Jha, welcome to the government, as they say. Appreciate you coming on and sharing the administration's --
DR. ASHISH JHA:
Thank you.
CHUCK TODD:
– perspective on this. Thank you, sir. When we come back, the Republican Party is campaigning to take back the majority in Congress. Will it be a functioning majority party if all of its governing pragmatists are purged? Retiring Republican Congressman Fred Upton joins me next.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. Last week, Michigan Congressman Fred Upton, one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump became the fourth to announce that he's going to retire. Five more are being primaried from the right by candidates Trump has endorsed. California's David Valadao is the only exception so far. After Upton announced his retirement, Trump released this statement writing: "Upton quits, four down, six to go." Congressman Fred Upton joins me now. Fred, good to see you.
REP. FRED UPTON:
Nice to see you, always.
CHUCK TODD:
Let me start with what you told my colleague Vaughn Hillyard, you said – this was on March 30, not that long ago, you said that the possibility of the perception of giving Trump a win by retiring was actually a motivator to run again, and yet you're deciding not to run. Did you give Trump a win?
REP. FRED UPTON:
No, we didn't. I don't think we did. No, it would have been a doozie of a campaign. I would have loved it. I like campaigns, I really do. I like --
CHUCK TODD:
You wanted Trump involved? You were ready to take him on?
REP. FRED UPTON:
I was ready to go, but the final straw was they redrew the district. So my hometown, my home community, faces Lake Michigan, I can actually see it across the street where I live. It’s – a lot of it now is with Lake Erie. So it's literally 250 miles away, about 350,000 different voters than I had before. And so that was the final -- when the judges--
CHUCK TODD:
You test drove the campaign though? You paid for some TV advertising.
REP. FRED UPTON:
Yep. We were ready.
CHUCK TODD:
You did seem to test drive it.
REP. FRED UPTON:
We were. We were ready.
CHUCK TODD:
Did you travel this new district?
REP. FRED UPTON:
Yeah. Oh, absolutely. Yep. No, I did, and we would have been welcomed in a lot of different places. We would have had to raise, I don't know, five million or six million bucks, couple months, I could have done that. But at the end, you know, it's time for family. I've got three grandkids now, one of is actually saying, "There's Papa." He's two years old, he's watching right now.
CHUCK TODD:
I am curious what you think is going to happen to a Republican controlled Congress next year. Don Bacon, who's a colleague of yours, he's a Republican from Omaha, he said this: "We can't have this mindset of 'burn the house down,' we've got to be a governing party when we're in the majority, so we need people like Upton and folks like that so other people have to step up." Look, you regularly vote to keep the government open, and you're usually in the minority, and I believe the last time the debt ceiling was raised. I think now there's only gonna be 33 members left –
REP. FRED UPTON:
Maybe even less.
CHUCK TODD:
– who voted for it left in Congress. I mean, do you fear that this next House Republican majority could lead us to default?
REP. FRED UPTON:
Well, a lot depends upon what happens in November. I do believe that the house is gonna flip. In fact I talked to Charlie Cook earlier this morning, and I think he believes that as well.
CHUCK TODD:
The math is hard to overcome.
REP. FRED UPTON:
What is going to be the margin, though? Is it going to be better than Pelosi? I think it will, a little bit better than what it is today for her. But I don't think it's going to be this wild swing, knowing that we picked up a lot of seats in the last election despite Biden winning. So, you know, what's the over/under? So that's going to make a big determination.
CHUCK TODD:
So a small majority, does that make it more likely, if it's a smaller Republican majority?
REP. FRED UPTON:
Probably. Yeah. Trouble.
CHUCK TODD:
You think that's more trouble?
REP. FRED UPTON:
More trouble, which is why then, the Problem Solvers Caucus, I'm one of the vice chairs there, is so important as we try to have some glue or fabric to really move forward on issues that we've got to deal with, whether it be immigration, whether it be energy, whether it be inflation, all those different – the debt ceiling obviously is going to be an early, early test in the next Congress.
CHUCK TODD:
You got death threats for voting for infrastructure spending.
REP. FRED UPTON:
I did.
CHUCK TODD:
You played these voicemails. We played these voicemails.
REP. FRED UPTON:
That's why I'm here today.
CHUCK TODD:
In some ways it is, isn't it? It made it easier to say, "I'm out."
REP. FRED UPTON:
Yeah, well, death threats, I mean, they never were like we had this last year, but it was pretty crazy. And remember, that was a Republican bill. I mean, literally, a year ago this week, Governor Hogan brought a bunch of us up to his place in Annapolis, Republicans, Democrats, senators, governors, House members, both sides of the aisle. We defined what infrastructure ought to be, and we decided how to pay for it, and it passed 69-30 in the Senate. It was the issue all last summer. Lindsey Graham, Trump's best friend, voted for it.
CHUCK TODD:
So if you're getting death threats, what's the likelihood of somebody watching what happened to you, and going, "Yeah, forget it. I'm not going to vote."
REP. FRED UPTON:
Yeah, hey, you know what? It's going to be a detriment getting good people to run, it really will be. Because I've got a school board member that lives on my street, I think he got death threats too, just over the mask mandate. So –
CHUCK TODD:
We have a story out of Georgia where they can't find anybody to be the elections person in Fulton County.
REP. FRED UPTON:
Yeah.
CHUCK TODD:
Because of threats.
REP. FRED UPTON:
I believe it. I believe it. You know, it puts you at risk, particularly when they threaten not only you, and I like to think I'm pretty fast, but when they threaten your spouse, or your kids, or whatever, that's what really makes it frightening.
CHUCK TODD:
Let me ask about if the Republicans are going to run on anything, and I'm curious what you would have done. While Kevin McCarthy says that the Republicans should run on an agenda this cycle?
REP. FRED UPTON:
Yeah, I think they should.
CHUCK TODD:
All right. Here's what Mitch McConnell said.
[BEGIN TAPE]
LEIGH ANN CALDWELL:
If Republicans take back control of Congress after the midterms, what would be your agenda?
SEN. MITCH MCCONNELL:
That is a very good question, and I'll let you know when we take it back.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
As a political strategist, this is probably the right call. It's a lot easier to win an election by running against somebody than being for anything. But isn't this what's wrong with our politics?
REP. FRED UPTON:
Yeah. You have to be for something, and I think what Kevin has done, eight or nine different working groups on a whole bunch of different subjects, whether it be high-tech, or China, or deficit, or, you know, energy, is a good thing. And I was around, remember, I was Newt's deputy whip, one of his deputy whips back in '94. That's when we came up with the Contract with America, that was the huge effort. We didn't say we were going to necessarily pass it, but it was going to be an agenda item for the next 100 days. I didn't actually vote for all of them, but I signed the contract that we ought to have a debate, and some of them became law.
CHUCK TODD:
Can Kevin McCarthy both represent you and Marjorie Taylor Greene?
REP. FRED UPTON:
He can if he gets the margin. That's why this over/under number is so important.
CHUCK TODD:
Yeah.
REP. FRED UPTON:
Are we going to be over or under 230? If it's under 230 --
CHUCK TODD:
You don't think --
REP. FRED UPTON:
– it will be --
CHUCK TODD:
– you think he may not become speaker if it's under 230?
REP. FRED UPTON:
– it will be very hard to govern for Republicans if we're under 230, knowing that we've got the MTG element that's really not a part of a governing majority.
CHUCK TODD:
We've had wild types of members of Congress since the history of this Republic.
REP. FRED UPTON:
Always have.
CHUCK TODD:
Okay. Can you --
REP. FRED UPTON:
Remember Jim Traficant?
CHUCK TODD:
Oh, yeah. Look, "beam me up."
REP. FRED UPTON:
Yeah.
CHUCK TODD:
But Lauren Boebert, and Marjorie Taylor Green, and Paul Gosar, is that a different element than you've ever seen before?
REP. FRED UPTON:
I don't think we've had as many folks in that sort of wing of the party elected as we have before, but I think they're very popular back at home. I mean, Boebert, she --
CHUCK TODD:
What does that tell you about --
REP. FRED UPTON:
– I mean, she being.
CHUCK TODD:
– what does that tell you about the Republican Party?
REP. FRED UPTON:
Troubled waters I guess you could say, and that's why the margin is going to be so, you know. Right now, look, Pelosi's got the votes, particularly with the use of the proxy vote, she's not going to lose a vote, and I don't think she really has in the last year and a half. We're not going to have proxy votes. Kevin has made that very clear. None of us want that to happen, and it was put in place really because of the Covid issue, but a lot determines on what that level's going to be. And I'll be watching you in November.
CHUCK TODD:
I don't mean to throw it very quickly at you, you were just in the region of Ukraine. Let me just ask this simple question: is the United States doing enough to help Ukraine?
REP. FRED UPTON:
We have to do everything we can. Let me just tell you, the Ukraine folks, so brave, they are fighting for us. It was a bipartisan trip that I went on. We have to make sure that they have every tool, to make sure that they can survive.
CHUCK TODD:
It sounds like you think we can do a little bit more?
REP. FRED UPTON:
We can.
CHUCK TODD:
Fred Upton, thanks for coming on. I may bug you more even if you're retired.
REP. FRED UPTON:
Right.
CHUCK TODD:
When we come back, with the cost of living climbing, key parts of President Biden's political coalition is falling away. Is there any way out of his domestic malaise? Panel is next.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. Panel is here: PBS NewsHour Chief Correspondent Amna Nawaz; Politico Playbook co-author Eugene Daniels; Matthew Continetti of the American Enterprise Institute and author of the new book “The Right”, it's a fascinating book actually, and Washington Post Deputy Editorial Page Editor Ruth Marcus. I say that as if I'm not used to books being fascinating. I don't mean it --
MATTHEW CONTINETTI:
Or books by me.
CHUCK TODD:
Or books by you.
MATTHEW CONTINETTI:
I'm still going to quote you though.
CHUCK TODD:
Yeah, you should. Put me on the back of the jacket.
CHUCK TODD:
Eugene, I want to start with you because you had an interesting interview with the President's pollster.
EUGENE DANIELS:
Yeah.
CHUCK TODD:
And it sort of dovetails. I'm going to put up a couple of poll numbers here. It's really his overall job rating from our CNBC poll and the economic job rating. And the reason I've singled these two out is because they're converging. They're basically the same now. His overall job rating I think is being seen through the lens of the economy pure and simple, no other issue is popping through. And then you had this Anzalone interview. What did Biden's pollster say?
EUGENE DANIELS:
Yeah, he came on our podcast and, you know, he had a lot of interesting things to say. First and foremost that this was the worst political environment he's seen in his 30 years which, you know, is scary for--
CHUCK TODD:
94 for the Democrats. We could go 10,14 --
EUGENE DANIELS:
– yeah, this was the worst environment.
CHUCK TODD:
Wow.
EUGENE DANIELS:
And, you know, there was a lot of the concerns that you hear from Democrats behind closed doors. They won't say it on the record or in front of cameras, but they do worry about how the economy is affecting how people think about what they're going to do in the midterms. And I will say when you talk about whether or not the administration's able to pass the Build Back Better or call it what you want at this point, chunks of that, he said that if they're able to do that, they'll be able to break through. So if you touch health care, if you do something with the care economy, if you do something with climate change, he thinks that that might work through. But that's hard to see happening at this point.
CHUCK TODD:
Amna, there's one demographic group I want to single out, and it's voters under the age of 35 --
AMNA NAWAZ:
Oh, yeah.
CHUCK TODD:
– who have never experienced inflation in their lifetime. As I say, they're used to, like, when "Oh, there's a new gadget, well, in six months it'll be cheaper."
AMNA NAWAZ:
Right.
CHUCK TODD:
Not more expensive. This is a whole different world. Look at these numbers here. By a five-point margin greater, right now 82% of the public thinks the economy’s only fair or poor. Adults under 35, it's 87%. Again, if you want to buy a house for the first time, you're paying a higher interest rate than your parents have ever paid. Never mind food and gas. This is a huge part of the Dem coalition?
AMNA NAWAZ:
It's not great. It's not great. You're talking about one of the key groups that not only helped Democrats win back control of Congress, you know, propelled Biden into the White House, but are also going to be in play in larger numbers than ever before in the upcoming midterms, right? And the economy is front and center. And when we talk about the economy, let's be specific. We're talking about inflation, we're talking about cost of living, because the White House will again point to things like unemployment being at record lows in 17 states, under 3% in 20 states, wage growth at the rate it's been. But also the fact that wage growth is not keeping up with the cost of living, right? So this generation, yeah, they stepped out into the world and were immediately hit with two back to back financial crises, right? You had the global financial crisis, then you have this really substantial crisis from the pandemic, and things are not getting better. Even if you just go back a year, expectations were so high: vaccines were coming out, things were going to get back to normal. Their wages have been suppressed, they are forced into unemployment or underemployment, and they are pessimistic about the future.
CHUCK TODD:
And, Ruth, when America's economy gets a cold, Nevada gets the flu, and I want to show these Nevada numbers here. Because two incumbents, Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak, Democratic incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, both were behind, trailing their potential Republican opponents. There's still some primaries, still a lot of work to do there, but when you look at the Nevada electorate, this is pieces of the coalition you see fraying away from Biden: Hispanic voters starting to peel away a little bit, working class, non-college-educated whites. This is a problem and Nevada may be the most acute.
RUTH MARCUS:
Nevada is a very acute problem, and it's an indicative problem that as John Anzalone said, "Democrats are facing a very dire situation in November." And just to put some numbers on that, more than 7 in 10, 72% of Nevadans rated economic conditions fair or poor. This is a state that has gone for the Democratic candidate four times in a row, for Democratic presidential candidate. It's a state that Biden won. Now his approval rating there is below the overall poll, it's at 35%. And most scary, and perhaps most ominous, is the peeling off of Hispanic voters in Nevada. Slump of approval rating from 73% a year ago to 52% now. You just read that if you're a Democratic candidate or pollster, you read it and, gulp, "What is going on here?"
EUGENE DANIELS:
And one of the biggest issues for Democrats is that they are talking about the things they've done, right? They've talked about the ARP, Covid money, the child tax credit, talking about the infrastructure bill. But voters are thinking, "Okay, but what are you doing now? What are you doing for me lately?" And Anzalone said that, and the White House knows that.
MATTHEW CONTINETTI:
I think there was a big myth in both parties in Washington, D.C. that Hispanic voters are single issue voters on the issue of immigration. That is not true. Hispanic voters are American voters, and they care about the same thing everybody else does. How's the economy doing? How are your schools? And are your streets safe?
CHUCK TODD:
Yeah.
MATTHEW CONTINETTI:
And it's that trifecta of issues that's powering the Republican wave this November.
RUTH MARCUS:
And are you representing me and my concerns? Hispanic voters, Republicans have always said and with good reason, that they are naturally Republican voters. There's a lot of social conservatism among the Hispanic voting block, to the extent that Democrats are not echoing that, and supporting the way that Hispanic voters think. They are just hurting themselves.
CHUCK TODD:
It, you know, and the White House has to be more focused on Ukraine. I know politically where they have to be focused, but they need to be. And you can make an argument that successfully getting an end to this war sooner rather than later can actually help the economy.
AMNA NAWAZ:
Well, sure. I mean, the two issues are almost at odds, right? Because the longer that war goes on, the longer there's going to be food shortages, the longer there's going to be fuel prices going up. And we know of course, and we've seen in the data, yes, inflation had been going up even for several months before the war in Ukraine began, but we know a lot of that huge increase in inflation was because of the fuel price increase, because of the war. And so voters get that. I think people understand that. But when they're looking at who to blame in all of this, most, most Americans do look at the pandemic. 69% of Americans say, "I get it. That's why the economy is where it is." 55% blame Putin, but then 45% or so blame President Biden. And they're not going to be voting against the pandemic, and they're not going to be voting against Putin. They're going to have to decide about President Biden.
MATTHEW CONTINETTI:
Gallup recently asked the public, "What are your top concerns?" Of course economy and the cost of living was number one. Second, strikingly to me, was "government and poor leadership." So other presidents have been able to recover from these sorts of setbacks, but I think the public has judged Biden, and judged him negatively, and it's going to be hard for him to change that perception no matter what happens.
CHUCK TODD:
Well, as Anzalone will say, the one thing they hang their hat on is, "Reagan had a bad first midterm, Clinton had a bad first midterm," right? And, "Obama had a bad first midterm."
MATTHEW CONTINETTI:
Things got better. For those presidents, conditions got better.
RUTH MARCUS:
Kind of, that's kind of clinging to faint hopes.
CHUCK TODD:
You've got to try something, right? All right, let me pause here. When we come back, two more coaches have added their names to the Brian Flores lawsuit against the NFL alleging racial discrimination. The league is responding, but has it been enough? That's next.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. It has been 20 years since the NFL first instituted what's known as "The Rooney Rule." It requires teams to interview at least one candidate of color for a head coaching job. There were three Black head coaches, just three then. And today, there are still just three. Three of the league's 32 head coaches are Black. In February, former Miami Dolphins head coach Brian Flores filed a class action lawsuit alleging racial discrimination after being fired. Two more coaches have signed on since. In a new report for our single-topic show Meet the Press Reports, my colleague Blayne Alexander takes a look at the troubled legacy of race and the NFL.
(BEGIN TAPE)
BLAYNE ALEXANDER:
In 2021, Black players made up the vast majority of the National Football League, with more than two-thirds identifying as either African American or mixed race. Yet among coaches, it's a much different story. Currently, there are only three Black head coaches in the entire league. And throughout the league's nearly 102-year history, only 25 Black men have ever held that position. Among them, Tony Dungy.
BLAYNE ALEXANDER:
I think the basic question is: Does the NFL have a race problem?
TONY DUNGY:
We do have a problem. When you've got an organization that is 65-70% African American on the field but then you look in other portions of the business, the staff, the coaching staff, the front office, the support staff, and it's not that, you have to question and say, "Well, what's going on here?"
(END TAPE)
CHUCK TODD:
In the last month, the NFL's league office has taken steps, announcing a new diversity committee to evaluate hiring practices. But, of course, it is the owners that eventually have to make these changes. You can see our entire Meet the Press Reports episode anytime on Peacock. When we come back, in anticipation of the Supreme Court's decision on Roe, states are proposing and passing a wave of new abortion laws. Stay with us.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. We've had quite a few changes in abortion law pretty much since the start of this year, both on the restrictive side in the states and on the legal side as well. Look at this. We had some – forty-plus states have seen more restrictive abortion laws introduced, and I believe we've had nine of them enacted. Eight of them had Republican governors. Just one didn't, and that's Andy Beshear on the Democratic side. You had about 30 states that introduced bills to protect or expand abortion rights. You'll be shocked to know, Ruth, that all of those states had Democratic governors --
RUTH MARCUS:
Funny how that works.
CHUCK TODD:
– except for one, Larry Hogan. And guess what? Larry Hogan, his veto was overridden by a Democratic legislature. Andy Beshear, on the other side, his veto done on that. But we're all doing this, waiting for what happens in June from the Supreme Court.
RUTH MARCUS:
What's going to happen in June?
CHUCK TODD:
You tell me.
RUTH MARCUS:
June is not good news for abortion rights. But what's really remarkable, I think, is the energy, the jump-the-gun urge among conservative states and Republican state legislatures. Guys, you're going to win. It's only a question of how much you're going to win how quickly. You can't even wait for the court? Apparently not. We've had a situation in Texas where what is now a constitutional right has been allowed not to take effect for almost all pregnant women since September. We now see in Kentucky for the first time effectively abortion is outlawed there because they have passed a law that it is impossible to comply with. It requires abortion clinics to have mechanisms to dispose of fetal remains, but that is simply not possible. So abortion is outlawed by state legislatures and so far allowed by the courts, even before the court acts. That's pretty remarkable.
CHUCK TODD:
I want to play sort of from both sides of this debate how governors are messaging their decisions. Take a look.
[BEGIN TAPE]
GOV. RON DESANTIS:
This will represent the most significant protections for life that have been enacted in this state in a generation.
GOV. GRETCHEN WHITMER:
The assault on women's privacy rights and bodily autonomy is no longer a theoretical risk.
GOV. KEVIN STITT:
We want Oklahoma to be the most pro-life state in the country. We want to outlaw abortion in the state of Oklahoma.
GOV. JARED POLIS:
No matter what the Supreme Court does in the future, women in Colorado will be able to choose.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
You know, Matthew, I think a lot depends on how the Supreme Court rules on abortion, right? Because I think there is – if this is a debate about legal or not legal, Republicans might have a bigger problem than if this is a debate about 15 weeks or 24 weeks.
MATTHEW CONTINETTI:
Yes. A couple things, Chuck, on this important issue. The pro-life movement has had two major goals since Roe v. Wade. One is to reverse Roe v. Wade. That seems like it could happen or come close to happening with the huge space for states to regulate abortion in June. The second goal is to ban abortion, right? And that's the subject of the Human Life amendments that have been introduced throughout the history of the Roe era. That's a harder goal, especially on the national level. And I think what we're seeing now on both the Republican and Democratic side is people preparing for the reintroduction of abortion law into the democratic space. And I think that means that you're going to get extreme bills actually on both sides: red state bills outlawing abortion, blue state bills legalizing it all the way through the nine months of pregnancy.
CHUCK TODD:
What's curious –I picked out Florida and Arizona, Eugene, because they're battleground states. And when it's about legality, it's a clear majority in favor of staying legal. It's when you start to get into the details that things change here. When you spoke to Anzalone, are they counting on a Roe ruling that energizes them in these midterms?
EUGENE DANIELS:
Yes, and Democrats have been talking about this a little bit, is that they expect this to be something that sends people to the polls. The problem is depending on what the Supreme Court rules, you know, Roe seems like it's going to be rolled back at least a little bit. And so that's already going to happen, so there's no change that they can do other than to say, "If you give us more Senate seats, if you give us more House seats, we can pass some type of federal law that allows abortion so we don't have to go through this route." Because what that map showed, both of those maps, is that where we're going, what we may have is a world in which there are two countries: where you can go in one state and get an abortion and literally a mile away cannot get an abortion. That's something that --
CHUCK TODD:
Well, Missouri's trying to figure out how to even prevent that --
EUGENE DANIELS:
Exactly. Exactly.
CHUCK TODD:
– for what it's worth. Amna?
AMNA NAWAZ:
But that's what we've seen happen, right?
CHUCK TODD:
Yes.
AMNA NAWAZ:
And Texas is a perfect example. We already saw the end of last year after I think it was a six-week ban in Texas that private citizens were allowed to enforce—and that's how they avoided court intervention—thousands of women, thousands of women left the state to be able to go to other places to have those same kinds of abortion care services. And already I mean, you don't need to pass an outright ban to essentially limit and completely remove a woman's right to a legal or safe abortion. You just have to pass enough rules that clinics can no longer be in compliance to do it.
CHUCK TODD:
Let me get – I want to get out of the specifics, and I want to get to the culture war issue, left and right. Is a culture war midterm election to the benefit of the Democrats this cycle or the Republicans, Ruth?
RUTH MARCUS:
Well, it depends on which aspect of the culture war, which battle of the culture war you're going to fight. If you're going to fight about gay rights, about schools and things, I think it may end up being a pro-Republican issue in certain states. If you're going to fight about abortion, it's going to end up being in those perhaps same states a pro-Democratic issue. However, it is really hard to see a culture war outcome, determinative battle when you've got inflation at the stage that it's at.
CHUCK TODD:
I was just going to say – Inflation will overcome everything.
MATTHEW CONTINETTI:
After the Texas law was passed, I was among the conservatives saying this might have thrown a lifeline to Democrats in the off-year election. That didn't happen. Republicans did very well in the off-year election post-Texas law.
CHUCK TODD:
Terry McAuliffe tried to use it in Virginia.
MATTHEW CONTINETTI:
Right now, Abbott is leading his bid for reelection. So that backlash has not happened.
CHUCK TODD:
Again, I think we all wait for what the Supremes tell us in June. Look, I need to pause here for a minute. Before we go, I want to note the passing of a longtime friend and a colleague for a lot of us here in Washington at NBC. Wendy Rieger, she worked at News 4 here in Washington as a reporter and anchor for 33 years. We shared a bureau together for decades with her. Wendy was diagnosed with brain cancer almost a year ago. Before her death, in a note to her beloved newsroom, Wendy wrote this: "As you know, I've lived my life big and loud. It is my nature, and I've had a blast. But a stillness has come over me that is profound and potent. I didn't know I could be this quiet. Life is not always a test; it is a teaching. I must learn this lesson with grace, and I will." Wendy Rieger was 65. That's all we have for today. Thanks for watching. Have a happy Easter and a happy Passover. We'll be back next week, because if it's Sunday it's Meet the Press.