NEW YORK — U.S. officials say there is “no credible, substantiated threat” to the Winter Olympics in Turin, but both they and officials in Italy are watching Islamic radicals and anarchists in northern Italy.
So extensive is the security on the U.S. side that the National Counter Terrorism Center in suburban Virginia has set up a 24-hour Joint Olympic Fusion Center, where intelligence streams from 26 different sources are analyzed on a 24/7 basis. The center, which opened on Jan. 23, will stay open through both the Olympics and the subsequent Winter Para-Olympics.
Here are what U.S. officials believe are the two main threats to the Olympics:
The Islamic threat
U.S. officials are concerned about home-grown Islamic radicals, specifically those who have been recruiting among Turin’s 100,000 Muslims for the insurgency in Iraq. They believe the local recruiters could go from being facilitators to going operational very quickly. They worry that Islamic radicals are recruiting young men and boys for the insurgency at “garage mosques,” many located in the Porto Palazzo neighborhood and along Via Santa Margharita, very near the medal stand venue. So far, the number who have gone to Iraq is very small, but the very presence of recruiters is worrisome. There are between 300,000 and 700,000 Muslims living just two hours away in Milan, a city where Islamic radicalism has been traditionally stronger than anywhere else in Europe — even London — and where al-Qaida had a base before Sept. 11.
In fact, officials are convinced that organizational affiliations, whether with al-Qaida or Abu al-Zarqawi’s al Mujaheddin Council, mean less and less and that Islamic terrorism is based more on personal connections. That presents a more difficult intelligence and law enforcement challenge. They point to two recent al-Qaida messages that mentioned Europe’s refusal to go along with Osama bin Laden’s 2004 offer of a truce to European Union countries. Both Ayman al-Zawahri, al-Qaida’s No. 2, in a Sept. 1, 2005, message and Adam Gadahn, al-Qaida’s American messenger, in a Sept. 11, 2005, message, mentioned the possibility of an attack on the continent in the near term.
The bigger threat, though, is posed by al-Qaida-inspired radicals who, like those in Madrid, London and Casablanca, have no confirmed contact with al-Qaida's central leadership but are capable of putting together an attack within weeks. The Madrid bombers, for example, went from discussion to successful attack in six weeks. U.S. officials do not believe that the London Underground attacks were directed by al-Qaida's central leadership. British authorities do not agree and instead believe there was some al-Qaida involvement in the attacks of July 7.
Roger Cressey, NBC’s counter terrorism analyst and former deputy director of counter terrorism at the National Security Council during the Clinton and Bush administrations, says that Italian authorities are as prepared as they can be for the Olympics security mission.
“The Italians have developed an impressive and comprehensive security plan," he says. "Their experience with securing large-scale events, like the funeral of Pope John Paul II last year, makes them confident that they can handle the most likely threats to the Olympics. What still worries them are terrorism scenarios that involve a lone individual with no direct links to al-Qaida or its affiliates. This individual may decide to take advantage of the international media presence in Turin to attempt an attack. Such a threat is nearly impossible to identify.”
Concern over newcomers
If an attack is to come from an established Islamic radical group, one group that could pull it off is GICM, the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group. Although active for the past five years or so, it was only designated a terrorist group by the State Department in October. The group is believed to have been responsible for the Casablanca suicide bombings in May 2003 in which 12 suicide bombers died, along with 33 civilians. In those attacks, 16 would-be suicide bombers walked into restaurants and hotels frequented by Westerners and detonated their bombs. The group may also have played some role in organizing the Madrid bombings that killed 191 in March 2004. Little is known about its leadership or its structure.
There is some evidence of GICM activity in the Turin-Milan region.
Most of the Muslims living in the Turin area are Moroccans. There is some evidence of GICM involvement in the “garage mosque” recruiting of insurgents in Turin. In general, North Africans make up a large portion of the Muslim population in northern Italy.
There is also evidence of North Africans actually plotting attacks in northern Italy in the recent past. In February 2004, Italian police arrested several North Africans suspected of plotting to bomb Milan's metro and a cathedral in the city of Cremona two years earlier. Arrest warrants had been issued for five men from Morocco and Tunisia, who served as Muslim religious leaders in “garage mosques” in Cremona.
In September of last year, Italy expelled Turin's self-proclaimed imam, Bourki Bouchta, a native of Morocco, claiming he was “a threat to the security of the state.” Italian authorities believe that Bouchta, who operated a popular butcher shop in Turin’s Arab neighborhood and had lived in Italy for 19 years, was linked to GICM or its allies. He was picked up at his home on a September morning, rushed to Milan’s Malpensa airport and shoved on a plane bound for Morocco. Under new Italian terrorist laws, instituted following the London Underground attacks, there was no hearing and no evidence was presented.
Iraq is not the only place where radical Islamists from the Turin-Milan area have fought. Some had fought in both Chechnya and Bosnia.
Other areas are not guaranteed safe
Turin is only one possible target, but other locations inside Italy could be targeted, including Milan. Milan certainly has been a hotbed of Islamic radicalism and al-Qaida activity for years. The CIA regarded the Islamic Cultural Institute in Milan as the leading logistics and recruiting base for al-Qaida in all of Europe before the terror attacks of Sept. 11. Although pressure from Italian authorities has led to a toning down of the rhetoric there, it is still viewed with great suspicion by U.S. and Italian authorities. As noted, Milan was also targeted for attack in 2002.
The Italians have also been very proactive, sending out teams of police – carabineri - on raids in neighborhoods where they suspect there is radical Islamic activity. Over the past six months, there have been raids that have mainly netted illegal immigrants, but during those raids, police have also gathered up materials like notebooks, phone books and computers to help with intelligence collection and analysis.
The expulsion of Bouchta and the raids on illegal immigrants has also resulted in some Islamists leaving Italy voluntarily.
The anarchist threat
The most likely threat come from Italian anarchists, U.S. and Italian authorities agree. But the threat is also less likely to be as catastrophic as an Islamic radical attack. Like the anti-globalization protests in Genoa for the G-8 summit there in July 2001, Olympic protests have the capability of drawing large numbers of people intent on disruption - tens of thousands are possible. Anarchist activists, for example, were on hand Dec. 6 for a rally that led to an attack on the Turin Olympic superstore. There have also been attacks on McDonalds, Blockbuster and other American companies in Italy in the past year.
Most of the anarchist organizing has been centered on the Treno Alta Velocita (TAV), a high-speed rail line being built in the Val di Susa area between Lyon and Turin. Local residents, environmental activists and anarchists have organized against it.
As a confidential analysis of the movement written by the U.S. State Department’s Overseas Security Assistance Council in January noted: “Several activists have linked the TAV construction project with the infrastructure development for the 2006 Winter Olympic Games due to the perceived similarities in harming the environment and disruption to local communities in Turin and surrounding areas.”
U.S. officials also are concerned that the anarchists could be planning sensational acts to coincide with the Games, including attacks on local banks, Olympic venues and local and multinational companies sponsoring the Games.
"The Italians have worked very hard to manage the local protesters who oppose the construction of the TAV high-speed railway through Val Susa,” says Cressey, “While there are certain to be some protests over the TAV during the Olympics, the Italians believe they will stay peaceful if they involve only local residents. The greater concern is the potential presence of anti-globalists who may come to Turin from elsewhere in Europe. Any protests they attempt are bound to be far more disruptive and destructive and would be a serious embarrassment for Silvio Berlusconi's government just a couple months before national elections.”
Anarchist groups to watch
The leading anarchist groups are:
- The FAI or Italian Anarchist Federation and its affiliate, FAT, or the Turin Anarchist Federation. Rather than causing great harm, the group appears to be limiting its activities to distributing anti-Olympic propaganda, causing minor property damage — like the attack on the Olympic Superstore — and partaking in peaceful demonstrations. They are viewed as having the most potential to disrupt the Games, however, because of the large numbers of people they can organize and because of the nature of the Winter Games — far-flung venues spread out on narrow roads susceptible to problems caused by weather in even the most benign circumstances.
- CSOA or Askatasuna Turin, a group based at a left-leaning social center in Turin. Members have actively opposed the Games and Italian anti-terrorism police recently raided the center searching for arms and explosives, though there is no indication they found any. Askatasuna reportedly provided logistical support for the violent Genoa protests in 2001.
- FOACR, or the Phoenix Astronomical Observatory Against Repression, is a squatter social center in Turin. The group's members also have protested the Games and TAV for the usual environmental, political and social reasons. They have been distributing anti-Olympic propaganda, squatting in abandoned buildings, vandalizing transportation facilities, displaying posters in public places, etc. It is unlikely they will pose any serious threat in spite of their open campaigning.
Anarchists have disrupted the torch run and in the past other leftists have sent “IED’s” — better described as “parcel bombs” — to officials. But they are not intended to harm as much as carry a message.
The big worry is that if they go to the venues, they will try to stop the events. The protests could go from being peaceful to violent. The U.S. believes some violence will take place.
Web resources
The National Counter Terrorism Center lists all the known terrorist groups operating in Italy.
The State’s Overseas Security Assistance Council monitors and reports on regional security for American businesses operating overseas, with both public and confidential streams — the former a compilation of Olympic news, the latter available to U.S. corporations.