California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) signed legislation yesterday moving the state's presidential primary to Feb. 5, 2008, a change that could lead to the earliest and biggest single-day test of candidate strength ever.
Half a dozen other large states, including New York, Texas, Florida, Illinois and New Jersey, are also considering moving their primaries to the first Tuesday in February, with the possibility that nearly two dozen contests will be held that day. Together, those states could account for more than half of the total number of delegates at stake.
While the rush to move to dates earlier in the nominating process has been motivated by states' desire to have more say in selecting the Republican and Democratic nominees, analysts said it may enhance the importance of the few small states whose contests will be held in January.
The kingmaker status of Iowa and New Hampshire, the first caucuses and first primary, respectively, in the nation, has been under siege in recent presidential cycles as other states have sought to shift their primaries ever earlier.
‘Important again’
"California is important again in presidential nomination politics, and we will restore the voters' confidence in government, and we will get the respect that California deserves, and our issues will get the due respect along the campaign trail and also in Washington," Schwarzenegger said in signing the legislation yesterday.
But Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- the four most significant contests ahead of Feb. 5 -- still may play the biggest role in determining the winners, particularly if one or two candidates emerge from those early tests and roll into early February with a head of steam.
"The likelihood is that the early states become even more important because the one dynamic that is going to drive the February 5th outcome is momentum," said Bill Carrick, a California-based Democratic consultant and veteran of several presidential campaigns.
Tad Devine, another Democratic consultant with extensive experience in presidential primaries, agreed with that assessment but left open the possibility that the changes, particularly because of the proportional distribution of delegates in Democratic contests, could have the opposite effect.
"If no one dominates," he said, "then California could be the beginning of a long contested nominating process that leads to a really big mess."
The changes in the calendar are likely to help candidates with the greatest capacity to raise money. On the Democratic side, that includes Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and former senator John Edwards of North Carolina. Among Republicans, those with the greatest fundraising potential are Sen. John McCain of Arizona, former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.
All candidates, whether top-tier contenders or dark horses, will be affected by the changes, but not all in the same way. For Clinton, who leads in the early polls and who is likely to be the best-financed of the Democratic candidates, the changes may have the least impact on strategy.
"Fortunately or unfortunately we don't control the calendar," said Clinton campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle. "I can tell you that it's our intention to compete aggressively, and we will have the resources to compete aggressively everywhere."
The same may apply to McCain, who has lost his lead in the national polls to Giuliani but is ahead of the former mayor in building a political infrastructure capable of competing in the early states and into a potential mega-primary.
But Giuliani strategists see Feb. 5 as potentially crucial to his prospects, particularly if he stumbles in early states such as South Carolina and Iowa, where he is out of step with Republican voters on abortion and gay rights, particularly among religious and cultural conservatives who play an influential role in those contests.
Vilsack strapped
The move by California and other states reflects a trend in recent White House campaigns to schedule more and more contests in the first weeks of the nominating process. Many years ago, the nomination battles ran from late winter to early June every four years, with the winner sometimes remaining unclear until decisive primaries in California. But in recent presidential elections, the nomination battles have effectively been over in early March.
The acceleration has already claimed one victim. Former Iowa governor Tom Vilsack quit the race last month, after running up a debt trying to extend the reach of his campaign far beyond his home state.
State officials such as Schwarzenegger, who may hope to see the kind of grass-roots campaigns of New Hampshire and Iowa run in their states, may be disappointed. Advisers to the leading candidates agreed that none of them will have the resources to run a significant number of television ads simultaneously in California, New York, Texas, Florida and other states targeting Feb. 5 contests.
The best-funded presidential candidates may raise $100 million or so by early next year for the primary season. Schwarzenegger spent more than $100 million to win reelection in California last year. Carrick said a standard weekly flight of ads covering California would cost about $2.5 million to $3 million, a sum that guarantees that candidates will be more dependent on free media coverage of the campaign to spread their message.
‘Very different’
Terry Nelson, the chief operating officer for McCain's campaign, said states that are considering holding primaries on Feb. 5 account for a greater share of the overall population than the states targeted by the two presidential campaigns in the 2004 general election. "It's a very different situation for campaigns than in previous cycles," he said in an e-mail message from the campaign. "Every campaign will need to make scheduling and resource decisions in a changing primary environment."
Candidates are spending plenty of time in states such as California, mostly to raise money. Now they are adjusting their plans to include political events as well as private sessions with donors to help prepare for the primaries.
David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, said the campaign gathered 10,000 e-mail addresses at a recent rally in California. "The candidate may not make as many political visits and be on television for months and months, but we'll have the ability to do some organizational things on the ground," Plouffe said.