The Bush administration is preparing for a short, successful war in Iraq, but so far has said little about the aftermath — how long U.S. forces will occupy Iraq, how the country will be rebuilt and governed, and how much it will all cost.
AVOIDING SPECIFICS, President Bush has spoken in broad terms of a bright future for post-war Iraq. “Iraq can be an example of progress and prosperity in a region that needs both,” Bush says.
But behind the scenes, secret plans are being shaped for American military occupation, rule, and reconstruction that will last many years and require untold billions of dollars.
“You wouldn’t believe how articulated and detailed their plans are for post-war reconstruction,” says Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute. “They wouldn’t let me take the charts with me but it went on for page after page of the organization chart; who’s going to deal with the NGOs (non-governmental organization’s), who’s in charge, who goes here, who goes there — very complicated.”
Once the shooting stops, the U.S. military will take complete, unilateral control of Iraq. The first task will be to feed a population of 24 million people. At present, almost all Iraqis get their food from an extensive government controlled rationing system that would likely collapse in wartime.
In addition, hundreds of thousands of refugees will need shelter and medical assistance
Initially, Gen. Tommy Franks of the U.S. Central Command will rule Iraq until security is established in Iraqi cities and any weapons of mass destruction have been seized. Later, a U.S. civilian administrator — possibly a former U.S. state governor or ambassador — would take over, directing humanitarian relief and reconstruction efforts.
American officers would staff top levels of government ministries, but many officials of Saddam Hussein’s regime would keep their jobs.
“There’s going to be the need to administer the country,” says George Friedman, chairman of Stratfor, a geopolitical analysis firm. “We don’t have enough administrators, certainly not enough who speak Arabic. We are going to rely on current people, middle and senior level, to run the country.”
Eventually, officials say, Iraqis would be allowed to govern themselves.
“It would be a country where the people, religious and ethnic minorities would have a voice in their government,” says Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
But Iraq is no New England town meeting - it’s a fractious mix of competing tribes, religious groups and ethnicities. U.S. troops may have to act as a police force to deal with riots and civil unrest and chaos.
Shia Muslims in the south are likely to seek bloody vengeance against Baath Party apparatchiks who brutally put down their revolt in 1991. Iran may also seek to expand influence among its fellow Shiites. In the north, the Kurds want to secure autonomy and a share of the oil wealth that flows from the Kurdish region around Kirkuk.
“If the country has a huge amount of infrastructure damage and the Kurds and Shiites are rising up against everyone around them, it’s going to be a very difficult thing to get this genie back in the bottle,” says Friedman.
How long will the occupation last? Administration officials aren’t saying.
“We have to be prepared for a fairly long term commitment, a commitment that will change in shape scope and commitment over time,” says Secretary of State Colin Powell. “But I can’t honestly give you a military estimate of how long it will take.”
Lawmakers say the Bush administration hasn’t adequately prepared the American people for a long-term engagement.
“It’s going to be necessary to stay in Iraq a long time, to have tens of thousands, I predict 75,000, remain in Iraq a minimum of a year and a half, and I predict five years, after we secure a victory,” says Sen. Joseph Biden. D-Del.
What’s the price tag for all this? The short answer is, no one knows.
President Bush’s budget doesn’t set aside any money at all to pay for the war; budget chief Mitch Daniels says the war itself could cost about $60 billion, though former White House economic advisor Larry Lindsey, in a moment of uncharacteristic candor last fall, guessed it could run $100 billion.
The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments estimates five years of military occupation may cost between $26 billion and $105 billion; reconstruction, $30 billion to $100 billion; humanitarian relief, up to $10 billion.
“Nobody has the slightest idea what its going to cost because we don’t know the damage,” Friedman says.
The cost of rebuilding Iraq will be paid in part by oil revenue, and in part by contributions from other nations. But inevitably, a large share of the burden will be borne by the American taxpayers.