CHUCK TODD:
This Sunday: Making the case.
REP. BENNIE THOMPSON:
Our democracy came dangerously close to catastrophe.
CHUCK TODD:
January 6th testimony that President Trump knew he had lost the election, but continued to lie that it was rigged.
WILLIAM BARR:
I thought, “Boy, he’s become detached from reality if he really believes this stuff.”
JASON MILLER:
There were suggestions by, I believe it was Mayor Giuliani, to go and declare victory and say that we won it outright.
CHUCK TODD:
And then the unconstitutional plot to overturn the election.
ERIC HERSCHMANN:
I said, “Are you out of your effing mind?” I said, “You’re completely crazy.”
J. MICHAEL LUTTIG:
This is constitutional mischief.
CHUCK TODD:
Putting Vice President Pence's life in danger during the Capitol riot when he refused to go along.
REP. PETE AGUILAR:
Approximately 40 feet. That’s all there was. Forty feet between the Vice President and the mob.
CHUCK TODD:
I'll talk to one of the committee members, Democratic Congressman Jamie Raskin of Maryland. Plus, the economy. Prices everywhere going up.
MAN:
Everyone’s had it up to here, really.
CHUCK TODD:
Interest rates, too.
JEROME POWELL:
We’re strongly committed to bringing inflation back down.
CHUCK TODD:
Leading to a sinking stock market –
JEREMY SIEGEL:
This week was brutal. Today was brutal.
CHUCK TODD:
-- over fears of a coming recession. My guest this morning, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who says a recession is likely. Also, thanks to the troubled economy, and President Biden's age, Democrats are worried about the president's 2024 chances and whether he should even run again. Joining me for insight and analysis are: NBC News Chief White House Correspondent Peter Alexander, María Teresa Kumar, president of Voto Latino, Republican Strategist Brendan Buck and Politico National Correspondent Betsy Woodruff Swan. Welcome to Sunday, it's Meet the Press.
ANNOUNCER:
From NBC News in Washington, the longest-running show in television history, this is Meet the Press with Chuck Todd.
CHUCK TODD:
Good Sunday morning on this Juneteenth holiday, and a Happy Father's Day to all the dads out there. Fifty years after the Watergate break-in, we learned the week a lot about another president, Donald Trump, and all of that president's men. We learned at the January 6th hearings that Mr.Trump was told repeatedly that he'd lost the election, but that he continued to insist he'd won, and he spread the lie that the election was rigged anyway. We learned that Mr. Trump was told repeatedly that the idea that Vice President Mike Pence could unilaterally overturn the election was illegal and unconstitutional, but that he continued to pressure Pence to do so anyway. And we learned that the people advising Mr. Trump likely believed their plot was illegal and unconstitutional, but they urged Mr. Trump to go ahead anyway. What is emerging from this past week's hearings is the image of a president who was more defiant than delusional, who tried to hang onto power not because he thought it was right but simply because he thought he could. Finally, we've learned that January 6th was no one-day event but the end result of weeks of planning and scheming by a president who could not -- and cannot -- admit that he lost the election and was rejected by the American electorate. And standing in the way of Mr. Trump’s plan was Mr. Pence, who ended up withstanding enormous pressure to go along with the scheme.
[START TAPE]
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
If Mike Pence does the right thing, we win the election.
CHUCK TODD:
In a relentless pressure campaign, Donald Trump pushed his vice president to overturn his loss, even as Pence's life was in danger, though he knew his plan to have Pence obstruct electoral certification violated the law. Trump was told his election claims of fraud were false by his legal and campaign advisors again and again.
WILLIAM BARR:
I thought, “Boy, if he really believes this stuff, he has, you know, lost contact with -- he’s become detached from reality.”
CHUCK TODD:
But as Trump failed in earlier attempts to reverse the outcome, lawyer John Eastman began promoting a plan to have Pence refuse to certify electors. On January 4th, Trump and Pence met at the White House with Eastman, who acknowledged the plan was not legal.
MAN:
Did John Eastman ever admit, as far as you know, in front of the president that his proposal would violate the Electoral Count Act?
GREG JACOB:
I believe he did on the 4th.
CHUCK TODD:
But that evening in Georgia:
FMR. PRES. DONALD TRUMP:
I hope Mike Pence comes through for us, I have to tell you.
CHUCK TODD:
On January 5th, Eastman acknowledged that the Supreme Court would reject the plan to keep Trump in power -- in effect, a blueprint for a coup.
GREG JACOB:
He initially started, “Well, I think maybe you'd only lose seven to two,” and after some further discussion acknowledged, “Well, yeah, you’re right. We would lose nine nothing.”
ERIC HERSCHMANN:
I said, “Are you out of your effing mind?” I said, “You’re completely crazy.” I said, “You're going to turn around and tell 78 plus million people in this country that your theory is this is how you're going to invalidate their votes?”
CHUCK TODD:
On January 6th, Trump's pressure campaign only accelerated, beginning with a 1 am tweet, then another at 8:17 am – ‘Do it Mike!’ -- then with a phone call.
IVANKA TRUMP:
The conversation was pretty heated. It was a different tone than I'd heard him take with the vice president before.
MAN:
Do you remember what she said her father called him?
JULIE RADFORD:
The p-word.
CHUCK TODD:
At the Ellipse that day after the call:
FMR. PRES. DONBALD TRUMP:
I hope Mike has the courage to do what he has to do, and I hope he doesn't listen to the RINOs and the stupid people that he's listening to.
CHUCK TODD:
At 12:53 Pence released a letter saying he didn’t have the authority to overturn the will of voters. At 1 p.m. he convened a joint session of Congress. By 12:57, the first group who had gathered at the Capitol to pressure Pence had reached the West front, clashing with officers.
RIOTER:
He deserves to burn with the rest of them. Pence voted against Trump.
MAN:
Ok. And that's when all this started?
RIOTER:
Yup.That's when we marched on the Capitol.
REP. PETER AGUILAR:
The president's chief of staff Mark Meadows was notified of the violence at the Capitol by 2 p.m. and likely earlier. The testimony further establishes that Mr. Meadows quickly informed the president rioters breached the Capitol at 2:13 p.m.
SARAH MATTHEWS:
We thought that the president needed to tweet something and tweet something immediately.
RIOTER:
Mike Pence didn't have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our country and our constitution, giving states the chance to certify a corrective set of facts.
SARAH MATTHEWS:
It felt like he was pouring gasoline on the fire by tweeting that.
MAN:
The Secret Service couldn't control the situation and do their job.
MOB:
Hang Mike Pence! Hang Mike Pence! Hang Mike Pence!
MAN:
At 2:26 p.m., Secret Service rush Vice President Pence down the stairs.
REP. PETER AGUILAR:
Approximately 40 feet. That's all there was. Forty feet between the vice president and the mob. A confidential informant from the Proud Boys told the FBI the Proud Boys would have killed Mike Pence if given a chance.
CHUCK TODD:
And joining me now is a member of the January 6th select committee, Democratic Congressman Jamie Raskin of Maryland. He, of course, was the lead impeachment manager during the second impeachment. Congressman Raskin, welcome back to Meet the Press.
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
Delighted to be with you.
CHUCK TODD:
Let me just start with what you believe were the most important takeaways for these two hearings this past week.
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
Donald Trump knew the Big Lie was a big lie. They used it also as a big shakedown and a ripoff of his supporters to keep money rolling in. You know, usually when a campaign’s over and someone's lost, it's very difficult to raise money, but they raised more than $200 million based on that lie. And, you know, then there's what I'm calling the “big joke:” the idea that nobody had noticed that for more than two centuries, the vice president somehow has the unilateral power to decide who's going to be the next president. And, you know, they had invented a new theory with John Eastman and their whole Green Bay Sweep that the vice president could step outside of his constitutional role and exercise unilateral extra-constitutional authority just to reject the Electoral College votes sent in by governors representing tens of millions of people. So that was an attempt essentially to use subterfuge and trickery and coercion to overthrow the will of the people. They were trying to steal a presidential election and seize the presidency.
CHUCK TODD:
What's your barometer for success for these hearings?
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
Well, we have to tell the truth to the American people because in a democracy, the people have a right to the truth. That's what it means to be a democracy. You know, Madison said that “those who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power that knowledge gives." And it's a tough knowledge; it's a difficult knowledge. But everybody needs to know we almost suffered a coup, and we did suffer a violent insurrection on January the 6th.
CHUCK TODD:
Is just getting a historical record enough or does there need to be some justice?
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
Yeah, there needs to be accountability, and accountability can mean two things. One is individual criminal accountability that people pay for their particular crimes, as more than 800 people have already been prosecuted for everything from assaulting a federal officer to interfering with a federal proceeding to seditious conspiracy, which means conspiracy to overthrow and put down the government of the United States. But accountability also means collective accountability, and that's the real project that we're engaged in under House Resolution 503 – telling the truth to the people so we can make decisions about how to fortify democratic institutions going forward.
CHUCK TODD:
President Trump lashed out at the committee and lashed out at Vice President Pence just in the last 48 hours and essentially has not changed his view. He calls Mike Pence weak, says – I think he called him a “conveyor belt.” This public admission that essentially he wanted – continues after laying out all this evidence, is that – is he confessing?
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
Yeah, he's essentially saying, "Yeah, I did it, and I'll do it again," which is what we have been contending all along, that if you allow impunity for attempts at unconstitutional seizures of power, which is what a coup is, then you're inviting it again in the future. And to be a strong, self-sustaining, self-respecting democracy, we can't allow people to decide that they are above the law and that they are more important than our constitutional processes.
CHUCK TODD:
Do you think every time Donald Trump goes out there and essentially re-admits to what he did -- what should be the reaction of the attorney general every time the former president does this?
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
Well, you know, the attorney general really shouldn't be reacting to particular provocations by particular politicians or criminals. I mean, that's not really the role of the attorney general. The role of the attorney general is to determine, based on the facts and the law, whether some – there's probable cause to believe that somebody has violated federal law in the United States and then to follow the criteria of the Department of Justice. You've got to look at the culpability of the defendant, to what extent they acted willfully to do a criminal act. You've got to look at the gravity and nature of the offense. Of course, this offense has massive implications for the rule of law in America. And you've got to look at deterrence, that is, do we want to move into a system of government where losers in presidential elections can try to overturn the election by nonviolent or violent means?
CHUCK TODD:
Given everything you know, if you were in his shoes, do you think this is a close call or not?
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
You know, I'll leave that judgment to them. I mean, one of the many things that Donald Trump destroyed during his time in office was the idea that the political branches have to respect the independence of the law enforcement function, you know? So that really is up to them, and we're talking about people who are very confident --
CHUCK TODD:
You're familiar with the law. You were a constitutional law professor before you got into this job.
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
Yeah.
CHUCK TODD:
Do you believe that this is a close call for Merrick Garland?
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
I mean, again, I come back to the culpability of the defendant, the nature of the offense, which I think is extraordinarily grave here – it's hard to think of a more grave offense – and the question of deterrence and is it important to deter coups and insurrections? And I would say yes, but I think that's as deep as I want to get into the weeds on it.
CHUCK TODD:
All right. I want to ask about a couple of things that came up at the hearing that I'd like some clarification on. First I'm going to play something that Mr. Jacob, the vice president's then counsel – he described the vice president's refusal to essentially be evacuated by the Secret Service. But there was a specific detail he mentioned I want to ask you about. Take a listen.
[START TAPE]
GREG JACOB:
Head of his Secret Service detail, Tim, had said, "I assure you we're not going to drive out of the building without your permission." And the vice president had said something to the effect of, "Tim, I know you. I trust you. But you're not the one behind the wheel."
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
You had indicated a couple months ago how chilling this was. That’s being - -that felt like a hanging meatball hanging out here. There wasn't a follow up on this. Why was the vice president concerned that his head of detail wasn't the one behind that wheel?
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
Well, first of all, I think this was a moment of real courage displayed by Vice President Pence because what he was saying was, "I'm not leaving the Capitol until we count the Electoral College votes as required by the 12th Amendment of the Constitution and the Electoral Count Act." You know, the colloquial phrase “who's behind the wheel” could mean a lot of different things. It could mean, well, you know, who ultimately is commanding the Secret Service and telling everybody who's behind the, you know --
CHUCK TODD:
There was some --
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
– who's behind the wheel --
CHUCK TODD:
--question. We know that there was an acting deputy chief of staff that was a member of the Secret Service that the president had – I mean, is that where this is going? And do you have any other evidence to indicate that there were real concerns about who the Secret Service, who Pence's detail, was listening to?
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
You know, but I don't want to get into that. To me, it's obviously of interest, and I'm sure it's of interest to Vice President Pence, in terms of his own whereabouts and his own movement. But in terms of the big picture, we know that there was an organized hit against our democracy. There was an attempt, a successful attempt, to block the transfer of power, to impede Congress in the joint session counting Electoral College votes, and then the effort to get Pence to declare these absurd powers to unilaterally reject electors. So I think he was wise not to have left the Capitol. None of us wanted to leave the Capitol. And when we were forced out of our chambers I think that most members — certainly every member of my party, I know Ms. Cheney — most members were saying, "We must complete this task tonight."
CHUCK TODD:
Are you pursuing this line of investigation more? Is somebody else? Or is this something that you feel like you've gotten everything you can to find out who was in charge of the Secret Service in that moment?
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
You know, this is not the hearing that I'm going to be conducting. You know, we sort of divided up the labor. And I'm working on the mobilization of the mob and the domestic violent extremist groups, like the Proud Boys, the Oath Keepers, the Three Percenters and so on. So that's not a particular detail that I've been following.
CHUCK TODD:
Mike Pence a hero?
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
Well, you know, in a time of absolutely scandalous betrayal of people's oaths of office and crimes being committed all over the place, somebody who does their job and sticks to the law will stand out as a hero on that day. And I think on that day he was a hero for resisting all of the pressure campaigns and the coercive efforts to get him to play along with this continuation of the Big Lie, this big joke that he could somehow call off all the proceedings himself. I mean, it likely would've forced everything into the House of the Representatives for a so-called contingent election, where the GOP knew that they had a majority of state delegations because we vote in a 12th Amendment contingent election on the basis of one state, one vote rather than one member, one vote.
CHUCK TODD:
I want to talk about something you keep bringing up before when you're wondering, you know, if there’s going to be more investigation, then deterrence has to be a part of the calculation here. Let me get to something though that Judge Luttig seemed to – he talked about the clear and present danger that we are in. And he added this in his testimony: “To this very day the former president, his allies, and supporters pledge that in the presidential election of 2024, if the former president or his anointed successor were to lose that election that they would attempt to overturn that 2024 election in the same way that they attempted to overturn the 2020 election, but succeed." Is there any change to the law that actually could prevent this or are we – at the end of the day, you've got to hope human beings are going to do the right thing? Can you legislate doing the right thing?
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
Well, there are a number of reforms to the Electoral Count Act, reforms to the protection of the right to vote, reforms to the electoral process that will dramatically reduce the chances that someone can succeed in trying to impose an exercise of political will over the rule of law. I think you're right that ultimately if someone has no respect for the rule of law and believes only in their own power in an obsessive, narcissistic way, there's little that can deter that person. But there are things that can fortify us against them. And that is an important part of the committee's work, perhaps the most important part of it as Judge Luttig was saying. I mean, Judge Luttig by the way, I mean, he's like Justice Scalia to the conservative right. He's like Robert Bork. And he is out there blowing the whistle, saying, Tthere is a clear and present danger right now heading into the 2024 elections that Donald Trump and the Trumpist forces will attempt the same kind of maneuver to usurp the will of the people and just declare himself president." That's extraordinary.
CHUCK TODD:
You have talked in the last week that you've actually gotten new information. New information seems to come in all the time. Do you have new witnesses? Is it new people or new factual information?
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
Well, it's both. There are still people who are turning over information to the committee.
CHUCK TODD:
We saw new emails that we know from Mr. Eastman that came through. That's clear.
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
Yeah. And there are people who are just realizing that they are in possession of facts or evidence that the committee might not have. And the Chairman has encouraged everybody to come forward. And, you know, we've got a tip line --
CHUCK TODD:
You have useful information? Has this tip line provided you with actual concrete information that you – ended up being true, that you investigated?
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
We know things this weekend that we didn't know last weekend.
CHUCK TODD:
And things that are going to be important, facts that we didn't even know yet?
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
Yeah. I mean, it's all part of a picture. But again, you know, the general story has been known for a long time. We have a president who, for whatever reason, refused to accept the results of a presidential election and then organized a hit against American democracy through a number of different avenues to try to overthrow the election and install himself as president.
CHUCK TODD:
You're part of the investigation. Were sitting members of Congress – do you have evidence that sitting members of Congress helped the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers prepare for the January 6th insurrection?
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
You know, I don't want to comment on specific members at this point.
CHUCK TODD:
Are there going to be – were members of Congress – we've seen the release of that tour. Does that mean more is to come?
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
You know, there have been – there are different elements of this hit, and we're discussing all of them. There was, you know, the so-called Green Bay Sweep, the attempt to overturn Joe Biden's lawful majority in the Electoral College. There was also a violent street insurrection and insurrectionary violence unleashed against the Capitol. We're going to tell all parts of it, and we're going to invoke the names of everybody relevant who was involved.
CHUCK TODD:
Jamie Raskin, a member of the January 6th Committee, Democrat from Maryland. Happy Father's Day.
REP. JAMIE RASKIN:
Thank you so much, Chuck.
CHUCK TODD:
I appreciate you coming and sharing your perspective. When we come back: gas prices, inflation, interest rates—all of it is rising and so are fears of a recession. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers joins me next on where he thinks the economy may be heading.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. President Biden is continuing to make the case that the economy is still strong.
PRESIDENT BIDEN:
We've created 8.7 million new jobs in 16 months, an all-time record.
CHUCK TODD:
But if people aren't listening it's because inflation is eating away at wage increases. The Dow now is down 18% for the year so far after another rough week. The Fed just raised interest rates three quarters of a point. And there are real doubts that the Fed has the ability to actually cool inflation without triggering a recession. Larry Summers, President Clinton's treasury secretary and of course an adviser to President Obama, he saw high inflation coming and says there's real danger of a recession ahead. And he joins me now. Mr. Summers, welcome back to Meet the Press.
LARRY SUMMERS:
Happy Father's Day, Chuck.
CHUCK TODD:
Thank you. And happy Father's Day to you. Let me start with sort of two takes on what's coming. You've got President Biden in an interview with the Associated Press. He said, "A recession is not inevitable. Secondly, we're in a stronger position than any nation in the world to overcome this inflation." And then you've got Jamie Dimon, who essentially says, "I said there were storm clouds, big storm clouds hanging over this economy. And now it's a hurricane." So can both statements be true, or essentially is one person seeing a recession and another person not?
LARRY SUMMERS:
Look, nothing is certain and all economic forecasts have uncertainty. My best guess is that a recession is ahead. I base that on the fact that we haven't had a situation like the present with inflation above 4% and unemployment beyond 4% without a recession following within a year or two. And so I think the likelihood is that in order to do what's necessary to stop inflation the Fed is going to raise interest rates enough that the economy will slip into recession. And I think that view, which was not a common view a couple months ago, is now the view of a number of statistical models and the view of a range of forecasters, and I think will increasingly become a consensus view.
CHUCK TODD:
Is a recession, a mild one, necessary in order to tame inflation? Can inflation, at this point, be tamed without triggering a recession?
LARRY SUMMERS:
I don't think there are historical precedents for inflation at the rate we now have it coming down to the target the Fed has set of 2% without a recession. I think all the precedents point towards a recession, Chuck. There's always a first time for everything. And I don't want ever to make a forecast with certainty. But if you look at a whole range of indicators, if you look at what's happened in markets, if you look at the relative levels of interest rates of different durations, if you look at surveys of consumer expectations, and if you look at the simple fact that what drives inflation is supply and demand, supply doesn't change that fast. And so mostly what you need to do to reduce inflation is reduce demand. And that is a very hard process to control. And so it usually leads to a recession. All of that tells me that, while I wouldn't presume to be able to judge the timing, the dominant probability would be that by the end of next year we would be seeing a recession in the American economy.
CHUCK TODD:
Look, there's two things the administration is at least pondering in order to deal with high cost, provide some relief. But I'm curious if you think those decisions could actually end up unfortunately contributing to inflation. So one would be a gas tax holiday, right? So you're lowering the price making it easier for folks to go out there and buy more gas. And then the second is taking off some of these Trump era tariffs. Are any of those, if they're done as a relief mechanism for high prices, do any of those become inflationary? Is there risk of both of those triggering a little bit more inflation?
LARRY SUMMERS:
Look, I think cutting the tariffs is clearly a good idea. It will hold down prices. It will enable us to take a more strategic approach to dealing with China. It could take a percentage point or more off the CPI over time. Cutting tariffs is the right thing to do, and I hope the administration will find a way to do it. I'm no fan of the gas tax holiday. I think that's kind of a gimmick, and eventually you have to reverse it. I'll tell you what the most important thing is, Chuck. And I'm not sure it can save the situation and prevent a recession, but it would be a very positive contribution. If at long last we can have some kind of bipartisan budget bill with three elements: with reduction of pharmaceutical prices which will help health care and will also reduce the inflation rate. That's within our reach if we just use the government's large purchasing power through Medicare, number one. Number two, put in place the partial repeal, not the full repeal, but the partial repeal of the Trump tax cuts, which would take some demand out of the economy, increase confidence and reduce pressure on the Fed. And number three, an all-in more energy supply approach that emphasizes freeing up fossil fuels in various ways in the short run and making, with government support, the ultimate pivot to renewables. All of that would take pressure off the Fed, would bring down the inflation rate, would operate to restore confidence, and would, I think, be a very positive contribution. And I'm not privy to all the discussions and negotiations that are going on in Washington, but surely the most important thing for any public-spirited people is to try to find a deal along those lines.
CHUCK TODD:
Very quickly, a lot of business leaders are frustrated by the Fed. They felt like, you know, the Fed didn't act soon enough. You certainly thought the Fed should've acted sooner. Any concern that the Fed's now going to overreact, raise interest rates too high while also pulling money out of the market, the quantitative tightening? Is there a bigger risk of them doing too much or do you still worry that they're going to do too little?
LARRY SUMMERS:
I think they've got to find a balance. But, you know, Chuck, when the doctor prescribes antibiotics, if you stop taking them the moment you feel better, it can often be a mistake to not carry through. And if - the worst thing we could do would be to start to stop inflation and not do enough to slay the dragon. So I think the Fed has to be very, very careful here on that issue. They have made huge mistakes of being behind the curve. Their models, to be honest, I don't think are accurate for the current situation. I think even their latest forecast at this last meeting was, I think, wishful thinking in believing that they could restrain inflation with unemployment simply rising to slightly above 4%. So it's a hard job for the Fed.
CHUCK TODD:
Larry Summers, former treasury secretary, former chief economic advisor to President Obama, really appreciate you coming on and sharing your perspective with us. And again, happy Father's Day. When we come back--
LARRY SUMMERS:
Thank you.
CHUCK TODD:
--Donald Trumps responds to the January 6th hearing by doing what? Attacking Mike Pence again. Panel is next.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. Panel is here. Politico National Correspondent, Betsy Woodruff Swan; NBC News Chief White House Correspondent, Peter Alexander; Brendan Buck, former advisor to House Speakers Paul Ryan and John Boehner; and Maria Teresa Kumar, President of Voto Latino. Well let’s – President Trump wants to respond. So let's take a listen at his response, which, I have to say, has been pretty striking. Take a listen.
[BEGIN TAPE]
DONALD TRUMP:
Mike Pence had a chance to be great. He had a chance to be, frankly, historic. But Mike did not have the courage to act. Mike Pence had absolutely no choice but to be a human conveyor belt. He's a human conveyor belt.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
Peter, after all of that this week he chose to go after Mike Pence again. You know, it almost feels like – I keep coming back to “A Few Good Men.” It's like, you know, he keeps confessing to ordering the Code Red.
PETER ALEXANDER:
Yeah, that's exactly right. He also said that it was a simple protest that just got out of hand. I think it's been clear to everybody that this was not a simple protest that simply got out of hand here. I was speaking to some former Trump aides who were saying that they were struck by all the damning revelations that they heard, and most importantly that they came from Republicans, from pro-Trump Republicans. And they think while that may not affect ultra-MAGA Republicans for those sort of more independent-minded, more moderate Republicans, this could have an impact going forward right now. But Chuck, I'm struck by the fact that this lie has now become so central to the Republican Party. Take the state of Michigan right now. The leading Republican candidate for governor ahead of their primaries, Ryan Kelley, was arrested and charged for his role participating in the January 6th riot.
CHUCK TODD:
How about the fact that the Texas Republican Party has officially made it, passed a resolution that said the second-largest Republican Party in the country, essentially, that said he was illegitimately elected. Betsy, what are you hearing from Trump/Pence world of how this week has gone, behind the scenes?
BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN:
What's made people really uncomfortable is having all these videos of themselves splashed up for everybody to see. What's most unnerving for a host of these witnesses is less the content than the presentation. It's one thing if it's all written down in a 600-page document that people may or may not read. It's another thing if it's a video clip that'll be on YouTube forever, and that Trump himself of course will be able to watch, because that guy loves nothing more than good video content. That's something that's been causing concerns prior to the hearings, and those concerns are only escalating as the hearings unfold. Because people don't know who's going to be next. What they know is that they were on video, they know that they spoke, told the truth under oath. They don't know. Are they going to get clipped, or are they not going to get clipped? It's not a pleasant situation.
CHUCK TODD:
Brendan, how many Republicans are watching this going, “How can I find a way to distance myself from Trump even more without getting attacked by him?"
BRENDAN BUCK:
Well, it's funny, the clips I actually saw is some of these people, actually it seemed cathartic for them. At that moment they seemed to be, like, relieved that they could finally tell their story of what actually took place. Look, Republicans are seeing this, and it's the same story that they've already known for a long time. Donald Trump is not going to let go of this. We saw it this past week, he's still going to lean in. He's still going to punch Mike Pence. He never learns his lesson. That's actually, I think, one of his biggest vulnerabilities, is that he won't be able to drop this. And I think what we've seen in places like Georgia where voters are sort of over this, they're kind of done talking about this, maybe they even side with him on this question, but it's not what they're focused on –
CHUCK TODD:
Is success –
BRENDAN BUCK:
– Donald Trump can’t stop talking about it.
CHUCK TODD:
– simply keeping him from the nomination? Cause then the committee's done their job, in your mind, if it just keeps enough Republicans to say, "Keep him away from the nomination?"
BRENDAN BUCK:
I don’t think this committee and I don’t think Jamie Raskin didn't even suggest it. I don't think this committee thinks they're going to influence a lot of voters. I think they know that everybody has made up their mind. So who's the audience? You asked the right questions. I think the audience is Merrick Garland. I think they're trying to prove a case to the Department of Justice that there was a crime committed here. And if there are political benefits, whether that impedes Donald Trump from running for president again, great. That's also, I think, part of the equation. But I don't think that they think that there's going to be a political movement so much that it's going to change enough minds that he's no longer viable.
CHUCK TODD:
Maria Teresa, the importance of Merrick Garland acting, and what would that do to the party if he doesn't?
MARIA TERESA KUMAR:
No, it's really interesting. Someone had mentioned to me that for most of his career Merrick Garland has been an appellate, an appellate court judge. He's used to evidence coming to him. The other attorneys generals, Janet Reno, Ashcroft, and our most recent one –
CHUCK TODD:
Holder.
MARIA TERESA KUMAR:
Holder, thank you. They were active lawyers. They were seeking the truth. They had to make cases. And so this passiveness that we see from Merrick Garland can be very much the way he has been created. That's how he is an actual judge. And so when he's asking for people for the testimony, the written transcripts, it's almost as if he's asking for Congress to collect the evidence for him. And I think that's one of the reasons why they've been timid to actually direct the Department of Justice to act. That's why today when you asked Raskin directly, was he actually making any recommendations, he doesn't want to. But I would look very closely at what Liz Cheney is doing. Liz Cheney has basically said, we need to make some sort of recommendation
CHUCK TODD:
She definitely thinks –
MARIA TERESA KUMAR:
–and ecourage DOJ to act.
CHUCK TODD:
– there has to be something, Peter.
PETER ALEXANDER:
Well, to be clear, there's been a lot of conversation, will there be a criminal referral here? It doesn't matter if there's a criminal referral or not. What they've been testifying, what they've been presenting is, in effect, a criminal referral here. You heard Cheney herself say this is illegal, it's unconstitutional. So the bottom line is what I'm hearing from some folks who on the Democratic side have been saying they don't think that would be helpful. It would actually be counterproductive for there to be a criminal referral in some way. Because it would further politicize the Justice Department, which is exactly what they're trying not to do.
BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN:
There's-- there's one really simple but under-emphasized reason that this decision is so hard for the Justice Department, and that's because DOJ doesn't decide who's guilty; juries decide who's guilty. And juries can be notoriously unpredictable, which is a feature, not a bug of our system. When, in the Justice Department when they lost that huge case trying to convict the men who were accused of trying to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, that was a very sobering, scary moment for DOJ prosecutors. Because the general consensus among pretty much everyone was that it was open and shut, a slam dunk. But they lost. That's why as they're going through this evidence as it connects to Trump, as it connects to White House officials, it's just a much harder call because ultimately, in the final analysis, it's not their call.
MARIA TERESA KUMAR:
But I think one of the ways to make it tone down and make sure that it's not political is actually having Mike Pence get more into the race. Imagine right now our commission without Liz Cheney. That would then be completely political. But if Mike Pence goes into the Republican Party, says, "Yes, I'm going to run. Yes,” this is the – he's the only Republican right now that can actually share the truth. And it's going to have to come from within the Republican Party to basically brave –
CHUCK TODD:
Guess who has –
MARIA TERESA KUMAR:
– break the Trump fever.
CHUCK TODD:
– to be the star witness at any trial of Donald Trump, it's going to be Mike Pence. Brendan, I mean, where is this – I think we're all trying to think, what the heck would this look like?
BRENDAN BUCK:
I think Mike Pence is very much ready for this to be over. Because clearly Mike Pence does have ambitions to run for 2024, and this is the last conversation that he wants to be having. Mike Pence wants to be talking about all the great things they did in the Trump/Pence administration. He can't allow his persona among the Republican base to be defined by this question. And right now this is the central thing we know about Mike Pence, his role in this, in this attempted coup.
CHUCK TODD:
Well, every US attorney I've talked to, if there is a prosecution of Donald Trump you have to have Mike Pence as your star witness, pure and simple. When we come back, with gas prices going up daily, we're going to look at what really goes into the price of a gallon of gas. But as we go to break, we want to note the passing of a fixture here in Washington, particularly in the late 20th century, Mark Shields. He was a political consultant, a columnist, a great wit, and most of all, a familiar face and a cheerful face to many people on CNN, PBS, and ABC. Many of his favorite targets as a liberal columnist were Republicans, but he could be an equal opportunity critic of politicians of any stripes. Mark Shields was a good friend to a lot of us around here. He died yesterday. He was 85.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back, Data Download time. Gas prices are spiking just in time for summer travel season, and Americans are simply begging for relief. But there's a variety of factors contributing to the surge in prices. Meaning, there may not be a quick fix to bringing down fuel costs. It's not just about turning on the spigot, if you will. Look, the price of gas, the national price here, over $5, in raw dollars, highest we've ever gone. If you were to factor in inflation this is actually not the all-time high for gas, but it is in today's dollars. Now, part of the reason why gas has spiked is not just the price of oil. It's the issue of refining. In fact, 730,000 fewer barrels per day were refined in 2021. That created part of our capacity problem that we had. Much of this, we've had an idling issue, we’ve got obviously the sanctions against Russia. So you have 30% of our capacity essentially idled thanks to those sanctions on Russia. Overall, daily capacity has dropped a million barrels in our refining capacity since early 2020. So again, this is not the actual oil that we need or are looking for. We have that. It's the ability to turn it into actual gasoline. And if you want to understand what goes into the price of a gallon of gas, we could show you here. But it’s the price of oil takes up most of it. But refining capacity is becoming a bigger chunk. You could see down in January of 2021 refining capacity was less than taxes and things like that. Now, the amount of money refining is contributing to the price of gas, is growing and growing at a much faster rate than other factors that go into a gallon of gas. So this is the biggest problem we're dealing with. It is the ability to turn more oil into gas. And as you can see, again, this is not the all-time high. The all-time high was back in 2008. But of course, in today's dollars it is over $5. But if you're looking back at previous dollars, we would be at about $3.50. When we come back, why more Democrats are getting nervous, saying maybe President Biden shouldn't run for re-election. That's next.
CHUCK TODD:
Welcome back. Peter Alexander, the president has not given a lot of interviews to many reporters. You get to call out questions. But he did sit down with a print reporter at the Associated Press, and he was pretty blunt. He said this: "People are really, really down. They're really down. Their need for mental health in America has skyrocketed because people have seen everything upset. Everything they counted on upset." That was a blunt, understandable reaction. But it was a -- what's their plan on dealing and getting --
PETER ALEXANDER:
Didn't sound like Morning in America, did it?
CHUCK TODD:
No, it didn't --
PETER ALEXANDER:
Obviously not, no. He also said that a recession was not inevitable. He said, "Be confident." But I think the White House in the conversations I've had right now is trying to walk this tightrope, right? They’ve got to demonstrate empathy with action. But they also don't want to talk us into a recession right now. So in effect, they’re trying to -- you know, you don't want to say to Americans that things are better than they are because Americans will realize for themselves that they're not. But what struck me in the conversations I've had over the last several days is the real frustrations, Chuck, among some Democrats. Talking to a leading Democratic lawmaker right now, there was a rare in-person presentation earlier this week where some of the White House officials went to the Hill. It was not well-received --
CHUCK TODD:
It did not go well. Yeah.
PETER ALEXANDER:
There was -- they said there was no strategy, no plan. This lawmaker said to me, "We need to see the president be decisive." And they really feel like there's decision paralysis on some of these key issues like tariffs and on student loans.
CHUCK TODD:
Heard this from Jared Polis. He said -- he thought particularly on tariffs, that they've been doing this. Let me tell you, this is what Doug Jones said to me on my podcast earlier this week about what he sort of, like, stopped keeping Biden caged in, essentially. Take a listen.
[START TAPE]
Joe, has -- he wears that office very well. He’s very -- he can be very presidential, but I think they overcorrected. And I think they need to let Joe be Joe because -- the gaffes and all.
[END TAPE]
CHUCK TODD:
This has been a constant with him, going back to the campaign, Betsy. The staff seems overly protective of him.
BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN:
Yeah, there's no question. And that's part of the reason he's out front so little. He's done such a tiny number of recent interviews. And now, of course, in this AP interview, the message that he's sending that people are highlighting is he's recognizing that there's a lot of pain and suffering in this country.
CHUCK TODD:
Giving people a little Jimmy Carter flashback. You know, a word he never actually said, but “malaise.” His infamous malaise speech.
BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN:
And that's something that senior White House staff are acutely aware of, just the level of pain people are feeling. They're in an awful position because, to your point, on the one hand they don't want to say, "Everything's terrible. Sorry things are so bad." But on the other hand they don't want to try to persuade people that gas costs less than it actually does. And these questions about inflation and the economy are in the background of every senior White House staffer's mind as they're thinking about any number of policy issues. You think Biden's reversal on Saudi Arabia, Saudi's crown prince, didn't involve the influence that energy has on the prices of goods and services?
CHUCK TODD:
And Maria Teresa, would we be having these whispers about 2024 and whether he should run or not, if it didn't appear they had -- I think a lot of Democrats are frustrated. They don't appear to know how to respond to this economic challenge. So now it's like, "Well, maybe you're not the guy."
MARIA TERESA KUMAR:
Well, first of all, I think when we are in this point in time when any president has low approval ratings, there's always angst. I think we're feeling this particular angst because you have so many other forces that normally we don't see, all coming together. Whether we're talking about geopolitical instability, whether we're talking about the war in Ukraine where you have oil prices impacting us, whether you actually have the opportunity to recover fully from Covid, it's all a perfect storm. What we don't want to hear the president say, though, is that it's going to be hard if he doesn't actually talk about a plan. Now, he just released the strategic oil reserve, so we're seeing a million dollars – a million barrels a day. That's good. What else is the plan? He can't just wag his finger at the oil companies without a plan of what he expects them to come do. And I think we're in the middle of an arc. I mean, we are coming out of the worst economic recession -- indecisive political climate we've had, whether we're talking about Trump, whether we're talking about recovery from Covid. They need to talk about the arc of where we were, what we're doing now. And yes, it's going to be tough, but we're in the middle of the eye of the storm, and it's going to get better. But it has to be a collective understanding of what that looks like, and he needs a plan to communicate that to the American people.
BRENDAN BUCK:
Well, one of the worst places you can be as a president is not in control of your own fate. And in this situation, the economy, the answer is not the president; it's the Federal Reserve. And they're starting to take action, and they're raising interest rates. And the problem is, that's going to be painful as well. The antidote for high inflation is higher mortgage rates, higher credit card rates, all kinds of things that we're going to continue to see pain. And so he can go out there and talk about his solutions, but there is more pain to come. You can't just turn the page on it.
CHUCK TODD:
Yeah, I only have a minute left, and another topic I wanted to get to was the gun deal. Brendan, there was a -- John Cornyn, I don't have time to play the issue, but he was booed at the Texas Republican Convention. People were chanting "No red flag laws." Is this -- are Republicans -- are Senate Republicans getting cold feet?
BRENDAN BUCK:
I think they're acutely aware that there are Republican voters who are going to be against any gun deal. And this was sort of the -- the issue was -- people used to always say the NRA is the reason Republicans don't act. That's always been not quite right. It's voters who are NRA members. They don’t – it's not the NRA itself.
CHUCK TODD:
They're afraid of the voters?
BRENDAN BUCK:
They're afraid of the voters, and John Cornyn saw that when he stood in front of a bunch of Texas Republicans who booed him. But right now, I think it's a big moment for John Cornyn. John Cornyn has his ambitions to be the next majority leader in the Senate after Mitch McConnell retires. And my message to him is, suck it up. If you're going to be majority leader you have to do hard things. And this is -- does he want to be like a Ted Cruz where you're just playing to the base, or do you want to be someone who gets things done? And I think that's the big question.
CHUCK TODD:
You bring up a good point. If you want to be a congressional leader, you have to choose that "I don't want to be popular anymore." Just ask Nancy Pelosi. As we go, we want to note that tomorrow marks the second year that we as a country formally recognize Juneteenth as a federal holiday, marking the emancipation of African Americans from slavery. We hope you enjoy the holiday. And if you're not familiar with the celebration, please take the time to educate yourself on this very important part of our history. That's all for today. Thank you for watching. Happy Father's Day, all the dads out there. We'll be back next week. Because if it's Sunday, it's Meet the Press.