The Lid: Who is Losing the 2016 GOP Primary?

Republican presidential hopefuls Jim Gilmore (L) and George Pataki chat on stage after the Republican presidential primary debate on August 6, 2015 at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. AFP PHOTO/MANDEL NGANMANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty ImagesMANDEL NGAN / AFP - Getty Images

Breaking News Emails

Get breaking news alerts and special reports. The news and stories that matter, delivered weekday mornings.
By Andrew Rafferty and Carrie Dann

Welcome to The Lid, your afternoon dose of the 2016 ethos…. When POLITICO asked 2016 candidates to name their favorite books, Jeb Bush cited “our founding documents.” To which the nation’s nerds replied ‘YESSSSS! THAT is what my online dating profile has been missing!”

Get The Lid straight to your inbox each afternoon -- click here to sign up.


The lowest polling candidates of the Republican presidential primary will again be on display tomorrow at a “happy hour” debate. And in light of Rick Perry’s abrupt exit from the race last week, we thought we would use today to look at - not who’s at the top, but who’s at the bottom of the GOP race for the White House:

  • George Pataki: He is done most of his campaigning on cable news and is quickly coming to rival Jim Gilmore (who we’ve excluded because he won’t even be on the stage tomorrow) in “asterisk” status. Polls show the former New York governor polling below one percent.
  • Rick Santorum: The 2012 runner up is polling at about 1 percent and his fundraising numbers are worse than Perry’s. Santorum’s campaign raised just $600,000 in the second quarter, and outside groups have been even less financially supportive. However, a super PAC launched in July with the backing of billionaire Foster Friess could buoy his campaign.
  • Bobby Jindal: His newly-adopted Trump-bashing platform may break the mold and actually lead to some political traction. Or, it could work for the Louisiana governor exactly like it worked for Perry and Lindsey Graham and actually result in a slight drop. Either way, Jindal doesn’t have much to lose at this point. A CBS News/New York Times poll released Tuesday had him at less than one percent nationally, though he was tied with Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz at four percent in Iowa in an NBC News/Marist poll released this month. His super PAC also has raised more than $3.5 million.
  • Lindsey Graham: The South Carolina senator continues to poll poorly in the early primary states, but his campaign and super PAC fundraising has been respectable. (His roots in South Carolina are also complicating the dynamics in the early primary state as well) So far, he seems to be content in a foreign-policy truth-teller role in the crowded GOP field, even if his poll numbers have not moved because of it.


John Kasich is hoping to move his campaign’s focus beyond New Hampshire, reports NBC’s Alex Jaffe.

NBC’s Mark Murray notes that Sanders has not received a single endorsement from a sitting Democratic senator, House member or governor.

Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders told NBC’s Andrea Mitchell a Wall Street Journal report that found his proposals will cost $18 trillion was "significantly exaggerated."

A new national poll shows a big surge for Ben Carson, who is now running almost even with Donald Trump.

NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell reports that the architect of the Capitol is refuting Donald Trump’s claim that the scaffolding around the building’s dome will be removed and then replaced after the inauguration in 2017.


The Wall Street Journal reports on how Twitter’s new political donations service works.

The Washington Post reports on the songs that various campaigns are using -- and whether or not they may have permission to use them.

CARSON: He wrote on IJReview about the deaths of two of his cousins to violence.

RUBIO: His jab at Florida State won him a counterpunch from the university’s president.

FIORINA: The Daily Caller writes that, in 2005, she invested in a website that directed users to Planned Parenthood.


“He’s a nice kid. I’m sure he’s frustrated by his low standing in the polls, which I believe could be a reflection of where he got his education.”

  • The President of Florida State University responding to Marco Rubio’s comment that FSU is a school for “people who can’t get into Florida [University].”


Get excited, everyone! It’s time for the second GOP primary debate, happening tomorrow. Undercard starts at 6pm ET, while the main event begins at 8pm ET.

Hillary Clinton is on the Late Show with Jimmy Fallon.

Joe Biden is in California for a speech to the Solar Power International Trade Show and an appearance at the US-China climate leaders summit.