Where abortion rights could be on the ballot this fall: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, political reporter Adam Edelman looks at where abortion rights ballot measures could appear across the country this fall. Plus, senior political editor Mark Murray breaks down what voters see as Joe Biden and Donald Trump's top achievements and failures in office.

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The states where abortion rights could be on the ballot this fall

By Adam Edelman

Florida became the latest state Monday to put the issue of abortion directly in the hands of voters, with the state Supreme Court ruling that an amendment to enshrine reproductive rights in the state constitution can appear on the November ballot.

The state now joins deep-blue Maryland and New York as places where voters will decide this year whether to protect abortion rights in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022. 

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Similar efforts are underway in at least eight other states heading into the 2024 presidential election, as reproductive rights groups are seeking to build upon a still-unbroken ballot-measure winning streak since the fall of Roe. Democrats are hopeful these measures could boost turnout for their candidates in key races. 

On track: Organizers in Arizona say they’re on pace to gather far more than the 384,000 valid signatures needed by July 3 to put a proposed constitutional amendment on the ballot that would establish a “fundamental right” to receive abortion care up until fetal viability.

Reproductive rights advocates face a similarly uncomplicated path in Nevada, where abortion is already legal up until the 24th week of pregnancy. Fearing that such protections could be undone in future Republican administrations, organizers are seeking to put an amendment on the ballot that would make it nearly impossible for lawmakers to ever eliminate those protections.

In Montana, where abortion is legal until fetal viability, a pro-abortion rights amendment appears likely to qualify for the ballot after the state Supreme Court allowed the effort to move forward.

And in Colorado — one of six states where there are no gestational limits for a woman seeking an abortion — groups are likely to meet the requirements to place an amendment on the November ballot. The proposal would also end a ban on the use of state funds for abortion care. 

Tough road ahead: Meanwhile, efforts to qualify amendments for the ballot in a handful of red states are encountering tougher obstacles. 

In South Dakota, a proposed measure that would make abortion legal in all situations in the first trimester of a pregnancy has been met with a host of court challenges and a robust “decline to sign” movement.

An effort in Nebraska to place a measure that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution up until fetal viability faces an uphill climb due to the requirement that the 5% of the needed 123,000 signatures of registered voters must come from 38 of the state’s 93 counties. A similar landscape exists for organizers in Arkansas, where they need to collect signatures from 50 of the state’s 75 counties to advance their proposed amendment. 

And in Missouri, organizers expect that they will be able to submit about 172,000 valid signatures by May 5 to qualify for ballot placement later this year. But if the effort is successful, it would then be up to Republican Gov. Mike Parson to decide which ballot to place the measure on. Parson could, for example, decide to place the measure on the ballot for the Aug. 6 primary, which will likely feature lower turnout than the general election. 

Sizing up Biden’s and Trump’s achievements — and their failures

Analysis by Mark Murray

With Election Day 2024 still seven months away, voters continue to have more positive memories of the economy under former President Donald Trump than they do under President Joe Biden.

By a 2-to-1 margin, their bigger concern about Trump’s presidency was his personality rather than his role in the Jan. 6 attack at the U.S. Capitol. 

And voters don’t really associate the issue of abortion with either presumptive presidential nominee. 

Those are some of the major findings of a recent national Fox News poll that went beyond the traditional presidential horse race and favorability numbers for Biden and Trump. 

The poll asked a simple question: What was each administration’s biggest accomplishment and biggest failure? And here were the top responses from the surveyed voters:  

The Biden administration’s biggest accomplishment

• The economy: 19%
• Not being Trump/keeping Trump from office: 6%
• Forgiving student loan debt: 6%
• The infrastructure bill: 6%
• Handling of the Covid pandemic: 4%

The Biden administration’s biggest failure

• Immigration: 31%
• Inflation/the economy: 17%
• Everything/too many to list: 15%
• Foreign policy: 13% 

The Trump administration’s biggest accomplishment

• The economy: 35%
• Immigration: 10%
• Foreign policy: 9%
• Generally good/everything: 5%
• Covid vaccine development: 4%

The Trump administration’s biggest failure

• Personal characteristics: 23%
• Everything/too many to list: 12%
• Jan. 6 attacks/threat to democracy: 12%
• Response to the Covid pandemic: 12%

The bottom line: 35% of voters said the Trump administration’s biggest accomplishment was related to the economy, versus a total of 19% who said that about the Biden administration. 

Twenty-three percent said the former president’s personal characteristics were the Trump administration’s biggest failure, compared with 12% who cited Jan. 6 and the threat to democracy. For Biden, 31% said immigration was his biggest failure. 

And notably, the abortion issue barely registered — with just 1% saying the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade was Trump’s biggest accomplishment, and 2% saying it was Trump’s biggest failure.

That’s all from The Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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