A woman walks past voting booths at the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections in Cleveland, Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2014. Early voting began in Ohio after the U.S. Supreme Court stepped into a dispute over the schedule, pushing the start date back a week in the swing state. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan)Mark Duncan / AP
Breaking News Emails
Get breaking news alerts and special reports. The news and stories that matter, delivered weekday mornings.
Two of the biggest questions heading into Election Day are: “What will the electorate look like?” And: “How will these voters break?” Well, our weekly NBC/WSJ/Annenberg polls have collected merged data from interviews with 6,346 likely voters from Sept. 2 through Oct. 29, and here’s a pretty good clue from this 6,000-plus sample:
Overall congressional preference: GOP 49%, Dem 44%
Men: GOP 54%-40%
Women: Dem 49%-43%
Whites: GOP 56%-37%
African American: Dem 88%-7%
Latinos: Dem 57%-37%
18-29: Dem 51%-42%
30-44: Dem 50%-43%
45-64: GOP 50%-43%
65+: GOP 53%-40%
What is striking about these numbers is how similar they are to the 2010 exit poll, so make of that what you will. Also, these 6,000-plus interviews are a reminder to the political community to never make TOO MUCH of one single poll -- like a survey saying that Republicans are slightly leading among a small sample of “definite” young voters. The other polls and aggregates don’t back that up.