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Who Might Be In - and Out - For the Next GOP Debate?

CNN's rules for determining the top 10 candidates including polling averages reaching back to data from mid-July.
Image: GOP Presidential Candidates Participate In Pre-Debate Forum In Cleveland
CLEVELAND, OH - AUGUST 06: Seats are empty because the Republican presidential candidates pre-debate forum hosted by FOX News and Facebook was not open to ticketed guests at the Quicken Loans Arena August 6, 2015 in Cleveland, Ohio. The seven GOP candidates were selected to participate in the forum based on their rank in an average of the five most recent national political polls. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

The NBC News political unit is tracking which Republican candidates are on track to make the cut for the main debate set to be hosted by CNN on September 16.

CNN’s rules for deciding which 10 candidates make the cut for the big event are different than FOX’s were back at the beginning of August. While FOX only averaged the latest five national polls before the debate, CNN will average national polls from July 16 all the way until September 10 to determine their top 10 candidates.

That means that, by our count, nine polls in the mix will be from BEFORE the August 6 debate -- and the accompanying polling bumps for Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina. Only two polls being considered so far (conducted by FOX News and CNN/ORC) were released after the debate.

Candidates who don't make the top 10 but have an average of at least 1 percent in three national polls will be invited to an earlier debate, also on September 16.

The rules have prompted outcry from backers of Fiorina, who - so far - hasn't cracked the top 10 according to CNN's polling average guidance.

Here are the top ten candidates by the polling average criteria set out by CNN's debate rules as of today.

  • Trump - 22.3%
  • Bush - 12.5%
  • Walker - 10.7%
  • Carson - 6.9%
  • Cruz - 6.0%
  • Huckabee - 6.0%
  • Rubio - 5.9%
  • Paul - 5.4%
  • Christie - 3.3%
  • Kasich - 3.3%

Missing the cut at this time are:

  • Perry - 2.1%
  • Fiorina - 1.6%
  • Santorum - 1.4%
  • Jindal - 1.2%
  • Pataki - 0.5%
  • Graham - 0.3%
  • Gilmore - 0.1%