Approximately 22 percent of Africa's one billion population — or around 220 million people — will be infected in the first year of the coronavirus epidemic, new research predicts. 

A model by the World Health Organization’s regional office for Africa published in the British Medical Journal showed that while there would be a comparatively low rate of transmission across the continent due to a generally younger population, a rise in hospitalizations and other care needs would significantly overwhelm healthcare services. Also, many cases may pass undetected in primary care facilities, “due to weak diagnostic capacity and non-specific symptoms,” the research showed.

The model predicted that the first year of transmissions could result in about 150,000 deaths on the continent. The researchers urged that “effective containment measures should be promoted in all countries” to best manage the outbreak. Africa has reported 75,000 cases and more than 2,500 deaths as of Friday, according to the Africa Center for Disease Control.