Shouting to be heard over the cheering crowd at a recent campaign rally here, Chou Li-fu explained why he felt so strongly about supporting President Chen Shui-bian in what has been the most competitive and polarizing presidential election campaign in Taiwan's history.
"We have to say no to China!" the 51-year-old factory manager exclaimed, arguing that Chen would stand up to Beijing and prevent a rush to invest in the mainland that could leave the island too dependent on its giant neighbor. "The survival of Taiwan is at stake," he said. "We want to tell the world Taiwan is an independent, democratic country."
Across town at another rally, Chang Shen-an agreed the election could decide Taiwan's future. But the retired nurse wanted to kick Chen out of office. "If he continues talking about independence and provoking China, the Chinese Communists will attack us," said Chang, 76, who favors Chen's opponent, Nationalist Party leader Lien Chan, in Saturday's election. "Independence is impossible for Taiwan — we're too small, and they're too big. We should focus on the economy instead, and we can't do that by isolating ourselves from the mainland."
After a long, divisive campaign that both China and the United States have followed with concern, the 23 million people of Taiwan will elect a president and choose between two sharply different views of how this self-governing island should deal with China, its booming economy and its growing political and military clout. In doing so, they may change the dynamics of one of the most dangerous military and diplomatic standoffs in the world.
China claims sovereignty over Taiwan, has threatened to attack it if it formally declares independence and is accelerating a military buildup on its side of the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait that already includes about 500 missiles. Meanwhile, Taiwan says it is already independent and has been developing a national identity separate from China. The United States has urged both sides to maintain the status quo but has vowed to help defend Taiwan if it is attacked.
Both presidential candidates in Taiwan have promised not to provoke a war. But Chen, who has struggled to govern because he won the presidency with only 39 percent of the vote in 2000 and has trailed Lien in public opinion polls for much of the year, managed to narrow the gap in recent months by stepping up the anti-China rhetoric and proposing that a referendum be held on the same day as the presidential election. The move prompted a series of strong warnings by China, which has long opposed any referendum in Taiwan as a potential step toward an island-wide vote on independence.
Chen has resisted stronger economic ties with the mainland unless Beijing grants security and political concessions. He has also promised to write a new constitution for the island and call a referendum to approve it within two years, a move that China has said could amount to a declaration of independence and prompt a military response.
Lien has pledged a more conciliatory approach toward China, which his party ruled under Chiang Kai-shek before it lost the civil war against the Communists and retreated to Taiwan in 1949. He has made a priority of further economic integration with China — by establishing direct air and shipping links, for example — and argued that issues related to Taiwan's sovereignty should be set aside for future generations to resolve.
Polls show a dead heat
Polls indicate the race is a statistical dead heat, and turnout is expected to approach 90 percent.
The sharp divide presents a significant challenge to Taiwan's young democracy, which managed its first transfer of power between political parties only four years ago. Though the threat of Chinese military intervention is slim to none at the moment and there is great public pride in the island's democratic transformation, there is also growing frustration with the divisiveness of political debate in Taiwan, as well as with government corruption.
Newspapers and television stations remain largely under the influence of one party or the other, public confidence in the courts' ability to serve as neutral arbiters of the law is low, and secret, multimillion-dollar donations to politicians are the norm. A recent study found that less than 50 percent of residents in Taiwan agree that democracy is the best system of government under all circumstances, one of the lowest ratings in newly democratic nations surveyed in Asia.
"This is not a very assuring sign," said Chu Yun-han, the political scientist at Academica Sinica who conducted the study. "People are upset by the increase in conflict in society."
The presidential campaign, with its focus on mainland China and Taiwanese nationalism, has further exacerbated lingering tensions between a majority whose families go back generations in Taiwan and a minority whose families arrived from the mainland in 1949 and were given preferential treatment by Chiang's authoritarian government.
Wang Benhu, the island's most popular talk show host, said society is so divided and the issues are so emotional that a close election could lead to allegations of voter fraud and, potentially, riots. "Especially if Chen loses, Taiwan will be even more split, and I'm afraid there will eventually be violence," he said.
In Beijing, the results also could strengthen or undermine the leadership of President Hu Jintao, the new Communist Party chief who approved a moderate approach to the election and who has been under pressure from rivals trying to use that against him, Chinese officials said.
China avoids strong response
China has refrained from a stronger response to the campaign, such as military exercises or missile tests, tactics it had employed before previous elections in Taiwan. Instead, it persuaded the Bush administration to publicly rebuke Chen and pressure him into softening Saturday's ballot questions. Voters will be asked whether Taiwan should try to establish a framework for cross-strait talks and whether it should boost military spending if China refuses to remove the missiles it has aimed at the island.
China's strategy reflects a belief by many in Beijing that a more forceful approach could prompt a backlash among voters in Taiwan and tip the race in Chen's favor, according to Chinese officials, military officers and others involved in the policymaking process who spoke on condition of anonymity.
They said it also represents a significant gamble by Hu, who took office a year ago and has yet to consolidate his grip on power. Though there is a general consensus among the leadership on Taiwan policy, there are sharp differences of opinion at other levels of the party, the government and the Chinese military. Some have argued that China is relying too heavily on the United States to deter Taiwan and should be building up its forces on the strait, while others have said the government suffered a blow to its credibility by allowing Taiwan to defy warnings against holding a referendum.
If Chen is reelected, the officials said, Hu will be vulnerable because he is the head of the party leadership group that manages Taiwan policy. His chief rival, Vice President Zeng Qinghong, is heading a similar leadership group on Hong Kong affairs and has taken a hard line against democracy activists demanding universal suffrage there.
But if Lien wins the election — and if a majority of eligible voters follow his lead and refuse to vote in the referendum, thus invalidating it — Hu could claim a major victory. The question then becomes whether he will be willing to risk offering concessions to Lien, who has proposed making an unprecedented trip to China before taking office in May if he is elected.