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Battleground state polling of the 2024 race has been sparse lately, but a new one from Quinnipiac University finds President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump essentially tied in all-important Pennsylvania, with Trump getting support from 47% of registered voters and Biden getting 45% in a hypothetical matchup.
That finding is consistent with most national polls also showing a deadlocked race between the two frontrunners more than a year before Election Day 2024.
Notably, the same poll has incumbent Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., leading likely Republican challenger Dave McCormick by 6 points among registered voters in that 2024 Senate race, 50% to 44%.
Casey's overperformance compared to Biden is being driven by independent voters.
Other findings in the Pennsylvania poll:
- Trump enjoys a large lead over his GOP rivals in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, with Trump at 61% among registered GOP voters, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis getting 14% and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at 8%.
- Democratic Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro enjoys a 46% favorable, 27% unfavorable rating in the state (+19), while Casey’s rating is 42% favorable, 26% unfavorable (+16) and Sen. John Fetterman’s, D-Pa., is 39% favorable, 46% unfavorable (-7) after his tough 2022 campaign.
- Fifty-three percent of Pennsylvania voters say they approve of Shapiro’s job performance, compared with 41% who approve of Biden’s job as president.
The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted Sept. 28 to Oct. 2 among 1,725 registered voters in Pennsylvania, and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 2.4 percentage points.